This Year More Than Any Other, SPs Control The Bet...

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Dreamin' Big
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I don't recall any past season before this '08 season in which a bettor can safely compare starting pitchers and be so successful. Some of you know that comparing starting pitcher stats is one of my biggest determining factors when it comes to making a play. And this year.... a great year for me so far.

Take yesterday for example (I already posted this in Zeke's thread from yesterday), I saw the Mets @ Brewers and Astros @ Cubs. The Brewers and Cubs are the two best teams in the NL and the Cubs are amazing at home. So immediately a bettor would feel safer taking the Brewers and Cubs. Then you compare starting pitchers, Johan Santana @ Ben Sheets and Roy Oswalt @ Jason Marquis. Ok... now the Brewers game is about even but most would still take the Brewers because they're at home, the Mets bullpen stinks, and the Brewers have been red hot. And as for the Cubs game, clearly the way Oswalt has been pitching lately worries a Cubs backer here but they're at home and no matter who's starting for them or against them, they find ways to win. Right? Wrong. You take Johan and you take Roy.

Another reason I'm saying this is because no matter what team you are on, if you're a standout starting pitcher, you'll get your deserving share of victories. Look at Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay. Lincecum is 15-3 on a team that's 19 games under .500. Cliff Lee is a 20-game winner on a sub-.500 team that up until recently was somewhere around 15 games under. Halladay is 17-9 on a team barely over.500. Now of course you can mention how these guys could be more successful if the guys that came in after them didn't give up so many runs or if the offense scored more runs on any given day. But that stuff is harder to gauge. You can't tell which reliever will come in for the Giants in the 7th if Lincecum has thrown 115 pitches after 6 IP and leaves with a 2-1 lead much less how they will perform. Just as likely, you don't have a decent chance (forget a good chance becausethat's not happening) of predicting how a lineup, 1-8 or 1-9, will perform. But by simply comparing how both starting pitchers have faired vs. the other teams, in the given ballpark, and during the given time (day or night), you may end up with a play that yields the safest investment possible.
 

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Another reason I'm saying this is because no matter what team you are on, if you're a standout starting pitcher, you'll get your deserving share of victories.

Not always. Duchscherer at a mediocre 10-8, 2.54. Matt Cain at 8-11 with a respectable 3.69. Paul Malholm 8-8, 3.81. There are exceptions. A little part of a pitcher's W-L record has to do with luck. 8-10 wins aren't shabby, but these pitchers would have much better records on more offensive potent teams.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Not always. Duchscherer at a mediocre 10-8, 2.54. Matt Cain at 8-11 with a respectable 3.69. Paul Malholm 8-8, 3.81. There are exceptions. A little part of a pitcher's W-L record has to do with luck. 8-10 wins aren't shabby, but these pitchers would have much better records on more offensive potent teams.

I don't consider any of the 3 pitchers you mentioned to be particularly standout. Cain is good, but his career so far has been below average (30-40, 3.72). The ERA is good but consider the park he plays in and the division he plays in (with an exception to games pitched at Coors Field), any good pitcher can sport that ERA but have a better record. To be a standout, you can do it on a bad team and be noticed (Lincecum).

As for Malholm, his case is even weaker. He is 29-34 with a 4.36 ERA lifetime, what stands out there?

And Duchscherer? I don't want to use the word fluke because he was a good relief pitcher before this season, but only had 5 career starts prior to. Throw in the fact that he's 31 and not a younger player who's living up to expectations, you really can't put this guy in the same sentence as Halladay, Lee (74-38 lifetime), Santana, Oswalt, or even Lincecum.
 

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Ya if its only top tier pitchers, then they have had their success this year, no matter the team record. I agree.
 

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Good thing you posted plays on Mets and Astros before you wrote this thread.
 

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