I don't recall any past season before this '08 season in which a bettor can safely compare starting pitchers and be so successful. Some of you know that comparing starting pitcher stats is one of my biggest determining factors when it comes to making a play. And this year.... a great year for me so far.
Take yesterday for example (I already posted this in Zeke's thread from yesterday), I saw the Mets @ Brewers and Astros @ Cubs. The Brewers and Cubs are the two best teams in the NL and the Cubs are amazing at home. So immediately a bettor would feel safer taking the Brewers and Cubs. Then you compare starting pitchers, Johan Santana @ Ben Sheets and Roy Oswalt @ Jason Marquis. Ok... now the Brewers game is about even but most would still take the Brewers because they're at home, the Mets bullpen stinks, and the Brewers have been red hot. And as for the Cubs game, clearly the way Oswalt has been pitching lately worries a Cubs backer here but they're at home and no matter who's starting for them or against them, they find ways to win. Right? Wrong. You take Johan and you take Roy.
Another reason I'm saying this is because no matter what team you are on, if you're a standout starting pitcher, you'll get your deserving share of victories. Look at Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay. Lincecum is 15-3 on a team that's 19 games under .500. Cliff Lee is a 20-game winner on a sub-.500 team that up until recently was somewhere around 15 games under. Halladay is 17-9 on a team barely over.500. Now of course you can mention how these guys could be more successful if the guys that came in after them didn't give up so many runs or if the offense scored more runs on any given day. But that stuff is harder to gauge. You can't tell which reliever will come in for the Giants in the 7th if Lincecum has thrown 115 pitches after 6 IP and leaves with a 2-1 lead much less how they will perform. Just as likely, you don't have a decent chance (forget a good chance becausethat's not happening) of predicting how a lineup, 1-8 or 1-9, will perform. But by simply comparing how both starting pitchers have faired vs. the other teams, in the given ballpark, and during the given time (day or night), you may end up with a play that yields the safest investment possible.
Take yesterday for example (I already posted this in Zeke's thread from yesterday), I saw the Mets @ Brewers and Astros @ Cubs. The Brewers and Cubs are the two best teams in the NL and the Cubs are amazing at home. So immediately a bettor would feel safer taking the Brewers and Cubs. Then you compare starting pitchers, Johan Santana @ Ben Sheets and Roy Oswalt @ Jason Marquis. Ok... now the Brewers game is about even but most would still take the Brewers because they're at home, the Mets bullpen stinks, and the Brewers have been red hot. And as for the Cubs game, clearly the way Oswalt has been pitching lately worries a Cubs backer here but they're at home and no matter who's starting for them or against them, they find ways to win. Right? Wrong. You take Johan and you take Roy.
Another reason I'm saying this is because no matter what team you are on, if you're a standout starting pitcher, you'll get your deserving share of victories. Look at Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay. Lincecum is 15-3 on a team that's 19 games under .500. Cliff Lee is a 20-game winner on a sub-.500 team that up until recently was somewhere around 15 games under. Halladay is 17-9 on a team barely over.500. Now of course you can mention how these guys could be more successful if the guys that came in after them didn't give up so many runs or if the offense scored more runs on any given day. But that stuff is harder to gauge. You can't tell which reliever will come in for the Giants in the 7th if Lincecum has thrown 115 pitches after 6 IP and leaves with a 2-1 lead much less how they will perform. Just as likely, you don't have a decent chance (forget a good chance becausethat's not happening) of predicting how a lineup, 1-8 or 1-9, will perform. But by simply comparing how both starting pitchers have faired vs. the other teams, in the given ballpark, and during the given time (day or night), you may end up with a play that yields the safest investment possible.