Postseason Odds
Last update: Tue Sep 16 06:16:02 2008 PT
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Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the PECOTA-adjusted version of this report. As well as the ELO-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Tue Sep 16 07:16:13 EDT 2008<HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in AL East: 97.1 94.9 87.5 85.2 71.2AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeRed Sox 89 61 .627 96.0 66.0 50.15328 49.78432 99.93760 .11405 .52863Rays 88 60 .589 96.0 66.0 49.84658 50.04126 99.88784 .01448 .45689Blue Jays 80 70 .564 86.7 75.3 .00008 .04550 .04558 -0.04037 -0.49049Yankees 80 70 .552 86.0 76.0 .00005 .02435 .02440 -0.00985 -0.08387Orioles 66 82 .467 71.2 89.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.2 87.4 78.8 75.9 71.5 90.5AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeWhite Sox 83 66 .547 89.8 72.2 76.53715 .04754 76.58469 .49865 -6.08250Twins 82 68 .509 87.7 74.3 23.46285 .05703 23.51988 -0.57697 5.67889Indians 73 77 .515 78.4 83.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00650Tigers 70 79 .496 76.2 85.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00105Royals 66 84 .453 71.5 90.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in AL west: 98.9 79.5 75.2 62.7 99.3AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeAngels 92 57 .520 98.9 63.1 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000Rangers 74 77 .485 79.5 82.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Athletics 69 80 .485 75.3 85.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Mariners 57 92 .421 62.7 99.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by AL Wild Card: 94.9</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in NL East: 90.9 88.9 83.4 72.6 62.2 91.0NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeMets 83 66 .545 90.1 71.9 56.51660 16.83896 73.35555 -7.06575 -4.91233Phillies 83 67 .528 89.7 72.3 43.26255 21.14525 64.40781 5.07811 29.74335Marlins 77 72 .483 83.4 78.6 .22085 .16754 .38839 .09485 .32555Braves 67 83 .491 72.6 89.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Nationals 57 93 .407 62.2 99.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.7 89.6 87.0 84.5 73.5 67.7 97.9NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeCubs 90 58 .584 97.7 64.3 99.55687 .40703 99.96390 .05096 .86972Brewers 83 67 .531 89.4 72.6 .44187 53.08477 53.52663 4.81292 -26.90453Astros 80 69 .481 86.9 75.1 .00127 7.61744 7.61871 -3.09947 4.82995Cardinals 78 71 .509 84.8 77.2 .00000 .73901 .73901 .12838 -3.95143Reds 68 81 .425 73.5 88.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Pirates 63 87 .386 67.7 94.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in NL West: 85.4 79.8 74.4 72.2 63.1 85.5NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeDodgers 78 72 .544 85.4 76.6 98.56165 .00000 98.56165 .29726 22.07997Diamondbacks 73 76 .504 79.8 82.2 1.43427 .00000 1.43427 -0.28212 -21.32929Giants 68 82 .438 73.1 88.9 .00405 .00000 .00405 -0.01391 -0.00550Rockies 68 83 .479 73.5 88.5 .00003 .00000 .00003 -0.00123 -0.74547Padres 58 93 .436 63.1 98.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.2</PRE><HR SIZE=2>As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a MonteCarlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the AdjustedStandings Report.
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for therest of the season, which is going to be between the current winningpercentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normaldistribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is usedfor the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4%home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while thevisitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game isdetermined by the log5 method.W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with theregression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won thechampionship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. Aswith championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
</PRE>
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Last update: Tue Sep 16 06:16:02 2008 PT
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Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the PECOTA-adjusted version of this report. As well as the ELO-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Tue Sep 16 07:16:13 EDT 2008<HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in AL East: 97.1 94.9 87.5 85.2 71.2AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeRed Sox 89 61 .627 96.0 66.0 50.15328 49.78432 99.93760 .11405 .52863Rays 88 60 .589 96.0 66.0 49.84658 50.04126 99.88784 .01448 .45689Blue Jays 80 70 .564 86.7 75.3 .00008 .04550 .04558 -0.04037 -0.49049Yankees 80 70 .552 86.0 76.0 .00005 .02435 .02440 -0.00985 -0.08387Orioles 66 82 .467 71.2 89.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.2 87.4 78.8 75.9 71.5 90.5AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeWhite Sox 83 66 .547 89.8 72.2 76.53715 .04754 76.58469 .49865 -6.08250Twins 82 68 .509 87.7 74.3 23.46285 .05703 23.51988 -0.57697 5.67889Indians 73 77 .515 78.4 83.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00650Tigers 70 79 .496 76.2 85.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00105Royals 66 84 .453 71.5 90.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in AL west: 98.9 79.5 75.2 62.7 99.3AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeAngels 92 57 .520 98.9 63.1 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000Rangers 74 77 .485 79.5 82.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Athletics 69 80 .485 75.3 85.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Mariners 57 92 .421 62.7 99.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by AL Wild Card: 94.9</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in NL East: 90.9 88.9 83.4 72.6 62.2 91.0NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeMets 83 66 .545 90.1 71.9 56.51660 16.83896 73.35555 -7.06575 -4.91233Phillies 83 67 .528 89.7 72.3 43.26255 21.14525 64.40781 5.07811 29.74335Marlins 77 72 .483 83.4 78.6 .22085 .16754 .38839 .09485 .32555Braves 67 83 .491 72.6 89.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Nationals 57 93 .407 62.2 99.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.7 89.6 87.0 84.5 73.5 67.7 97.9NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeCubs 90 58 .584 97.7 64.3 99.55687 .40703 99.96390 .05096 .86972Brewers 83 67 .531 89.4 72.6 .44187 53.08477 53.52663 4.81292 -26.90453Astros 80 69 .481 86.9 75.1 .00127 7.61744 7.61871 -3.09947 4.82995Cardinals 78 71 .509 84.8 77.2 .00000 .73901 .73901 .12838 -3.95143Reds 68 81 .425 73.5 88.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Pirates 63 87 .386 67.7 94.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in NL West: 85.4 79.8 74.4 72.2 63.1 85.5NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeDodgers 78 72 .544 85.4 76.6 98.56165 .00000 98.56165 .29726 22.07997Diamondbacks 73 76 .504 79.8 82.2 1.43427 .00000 1.43427 -0.28212 -21.32929Giants 68 82 .438 73.1 88.9 .00405 .00000 .00405 -0.01391 -0.00550Rockies 68 83 .479 73.5 88.5 .00003 .00000 .00003 -0.00123 -0.74547Padres 58 93 .436 63.1 98.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.2</PRE><HR SIZE=2>As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a MonteCarlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the AdjustedStandings Report.
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for therest of the season, which is going to be between the current winningpercentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normaldistribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is usedfor the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4%home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while thevisitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game isdetermined by the log5 method.W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with theregression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won thechampionship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. Aswith championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
</PRE>
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