How would you hedge this bet?

PatPatriot · Sep 30, 2008

Tampa Bay to win the AL pennant at 33-1. (bought in May)

How would you hedge this play going forward?

MONDOGECKO · Sep 30, 2008

If u bet 1 unit on Tampa Bay, then I wud bet 8 units on the White Sox/Twins to win the series, and if the Rays win that series then 16 units on Angels/Red Sox. U either win 7 units or 9 units, I personally wud wait until the Rays beat the White Sox or Twins, before I thought about hedging. That way u cud be garenteed more like 16 units.

topspinelite · Sep 30, 2008

Pat Patriot said:
Tampa Bay to win the AL pennant at 33-1. (bought in May)

How would you hedge this play going forward?

The rays are leagues better then the twins and cws. I would let it ride until tbay plays angels or bosox for the ALCS.

Once in the alcs, I dont see either team getting more then like -130 so you can decide how much you want to hedge at that point.

PatPatriot · Sep 30, 2008

Thse of the ways I was thinking of doing it.Unless there is a more creative way.I haven't thought of one.
I think the Rays should be at least -120 for the series. I should play 5 units on Twins/Sox. Then lay 10 units on Angels/RSox.

The only other way is if I can find some matchup odds for the ALCS that dosen't include Rays.

I don't know if I have the balls to let it ride through the first series.
I might wait to see the matchups in the very important game 1.

Maybe Twins and WSox will play 15 innings today.

Doug · Sep 30, 2008

Maybe take CWS/Minn every game +1.5 runs. Hope for some 1 run TB wins, win some more ?

jordan17 · Sep 30, 2008

u really cant talk about hedging, till u get to the al championship! have some faith & get by mn/cws then come back and talk about hedging...:drink:

Doug · Sep 30, 2008

You could also wait until game 5 of the series ( hoping it never happens), then bet 5 or so units against TB.

Doug · Sep 30, 2008

I think the game 5 hedge is the best way, you'd get a dog price to boot, and hopefully TB wins in 3 or 4.

TB should be much larger than a -120 fav for the series, IMO.

geerunt · Sep 30, 2008

Take the White Sox in every game that Tampa CAN possibly be eliminated...which means that you may NOT have to bet against them in the first round. Do the same in the second round, and hope to still collect the 33-1. BOL

lifexpired · Oct 1, 2008

let it ride, it's the +ev play and besides tampa is much more solid than they are given credit in the odds and so you'll won't even be getting proper value on the white sox

PatPatriot · Oct 1, 2008

Take the White Sox in every game that Tampa CAN possibly be eliminated...which means that you may NOT have to bet against them in the first round. Do the same in the second round, and hope to still collect the 33-1. BOL

I think this what I will do. I just hope i don't have to lay -150 3 straight games.

Thanks for al your input,fellas. I think I've touched on all the possibilties. hope the Rays are rested and ready.

barman · Oct 1, 2008

no....I got a better plan and I'm backing it personally since I too have TB to win American League wagers placed back in April

$10 at 60x1
$7.50 at 40x1

Combined payout of $900

------

The series price for CHW/TB is not up as I type this note, but I'm guessing it will be about +150 for Chisox

If Rays win Game 1, the adjusted series price should jump to at least CHW +250 or higher.

At that time I will lay a simple $50 on CHW since a $125 payback would assure me about an 8x1 return on original investment of $17.50

Presuming Rays then get over and beat CHW, I will then reexamine the ALCS based on the opponent.

lifexpired · Oct 1, 2008

barman said:
no....I got a better plan and I'm backing it personally since I too have TB to win American League wagers placed back in April

$10 at 60x1
$7.50 at 40x1

Combined payout of $900

------

The series price for CHW/TB is not up as I type this note, but I'm guessing it will be about +150 for Chisox

greek had tb -155/+130 yesterday after the game, now it's 5c up to -160/+135 fwiw

terps1313 · Oct 1, 2008

What about just taking the field at -340 to win the pennant? This is on 5dimes.

How would you hedge this bet?

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