Brew Crew vs Phils game 1 Value?

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I see a lot of value in the Brewers for this game. Gallardo looked solid in his last start although it was short. Hamels is 2 and 3 vs Brewers all time. He's also never won a playoff game before after admitting how nervous he was last year. He has also been off for 8 days which I read a yahoo article which I thought was interesting:

CALM COLE: Phillies Game 1 starter Cole Hamels is still looking for that first postseason win. What he doesn’t need is another case of the playoff jitters.
Hamels, who went 14-10 this season, believes he’ll be more calm on the mound the second time around the playoffs.
“I have playoff experience checked off next to my name,” Hamels said. “I don’t know, for some odd reason, being able to experience something for the very first time, there’s a lot of nerves because of the unexpected. You just have to really go out there and treat it as something that’s not as foreign as it was last year.”
Hamels allowed three earned runs in 6 2-3 innings in last year’s opener, which Colorado won 4-2.
Hamels hasn’t pitched in eight days. The lefty was scheduled to pitch in Sunday’s season finale if the Phillies were still fighting for a playoff spot. Once the Phillies clinched the NL East on Saturday night, Hamels was given the day off.
“I definitely had to change it up a little bit with the extra days of rest,” Hamels said.


I think the Brewers can get it done in this spot and steal game 1. Does anyone concur or think the Phillies roll in this spot?
 

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I am all over the Brewers on this game. +185 and Brewers have been rolling. This is my play of the day.
 

Rx .Junior
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YOVANI GALLARDO vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
GALLARDO is 1-0 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 1.35 and a WHIP of 0.750.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

but that was in 07...so its been awhile..
 

Rx .Junior
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All games at PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 8-3 (+4.5 Units) against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.7 Units)

Games played at PHILADELPHIA this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 (+4.0 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units
 
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this is Gallardo's 1st playoff appearance and I think he will be more nervouse than Hamels
 

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The Phils need to revenge last year's horrific first round exit, i mean don't they??? Their at home again, i mean they have to win this game, they will find a way. I mean I hope they will.
 

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Since at least 2002 a wild card team has won the pennant. Doesn't it make sense to take the wild card teams to upset or at least win the early series?

2002 Angels (winner)
2003 Marlins (winner)
2004 Red Sox (winner)
2005 Astros (loser)
2006 Tigers (loser)
2007 Colorado (loser)
 

And so it goes......
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The Brewers will be a different team then the one that got swept here a couple of weeks ago, confidence wise. Gallardo has more then enough stuff to keep the Brewes in the game. The Brewer offense is another story. Overall, they hit lefties better then righties for the season.
 

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All valid points guys and thanks for the responses. I really like the Brewers stat vs leftys. What has me concerned is there horrific relievers. I think I may go with the first 5 innings in order to avoid an horrific meltdown. Especially if that bum Gagne comes in.
 

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Just so everyone riding the Brewers pound lefties knows - Hamels over his career is more effective against righties...not making a statement about who to play, just some valuable info if that's your biggest angle.

.215/.261/.356 against righties, .262/.308/.471 against lefties

that's this year...and his career numbers bear out him being more effective against righties...just saying...
 

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The Phils need to revenge last year's horrific first round exit, i mean don't they??? Their at home again, i mean they have to win this game, they will find a way. I mean I hope they will.
Sound handicapping .. revenge, at home, have to win, they will find a way ... you mean just like they were at home to the Rockies last year and exited in the first round --- just like they will this year. Mets choke at the end of the season ... Phils choke in the playoffs.
 

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You guys are nuts...I know the Phils don't offer any value, but there is no way they lose this game. They have been sleep-walking all year waiting for these playoffs. They barely celebrated when they won the division. They are ready for this and will win this series easily. The Brew Crew is just happy to be in the playoffs!
 

Dain Bramaged
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Value Schmalue Juice doesnt hurt when its a winner and Phills WIN today!

GL
 

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