Three Things To Watch: Wednesday

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Lackey good, just not untouchable

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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: October 1, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY

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Lackey

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> Lackey dominant, but hittable, down the stretch

John Lackey has been a reliable starter for the Angels, but he has been less consistent recently. After spending the first six weeks of the season on the disabled list, Lackey went 10-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 18 starts. He followed that strong run, though, by going 2-3 with a 6.17 ERA over his last six outings of the regular season. Lackey's control and dominance were strong throughout the regular season. He simply gave up more hits down the stretch. Opponents' batting average jumped from .239 to .357 after Aug. 31. Hitters got better swings on his fastball, because Lackey elevated more of them above the belt:<!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Lackey's high fastball</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Past six starts</td> <td>First 18 starts</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of fastballs located up</td> <td>35.5</td> <td>25.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA</td> <td>.483</td> <td>.181</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG</td> <td>.724</td> <td>.361</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Lackey struggled recently to keep his heater down after falling behind in the count. He located 51 percent of fastballs in the lower third in his first 18 starts after falling behind hitters. Over his last six starts, Lackey has kept only 38 percent of fastballs down in hitters' counts. In those outings, hitters have slugged .742 with two home runs with the count in their favor. He hasn't had a feel for his curve, either, which is not fooling hitters in the zone: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Lackey's curveball in strike zone</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Past six starts</td> <td>First 18 starts</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss percentage of swings</td> <td>5.0</td> <td>13.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA</td> <td>.318</td> <td>.184</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG</td> <td>.591</td> <td>.289</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table -->A strikeout pitcher like Lackey should have a postseason edge because he can keep the ball out of play when runners are on. If he gets two strikes on the hitter, Lackey usually finishes them off. Before two strikes, however, the Angels' ace has been about average recently with runners aboard: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Runners on base, not two strikes</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>In-play pct. of swings</td> <td>On-base percentage</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Lackey over past six starts</td> <td>43.2</td> <td>.421</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>League average</td> <td>42.1</td> <td>.417</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --><!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
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Ramirez

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Cubs' Ramirez looks for redemption

Aramis Ramirez enters the postseason looking for a shot at redemption following last year's dismal 0-for-12 performance in the NLDS against Arizona, which dropped his career postseason average to .196 over 56 at-bats. If momentum counts for anything, Ramirez is poised to make amends; he was one of the Cubs' best hitters down the stretch.
<!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="6">Ramirez's final 30 games</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>AB</td> <td>Hits</td> <td>BA</td> <td>Well-hit avg.</td> <td>HR</td> <td>RBIs</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>115</td> <td>34</td> <td>.296</td> <td>.313</td> <td>7</td> <td>27</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table -->In order to ride his hot hand into October, Ramirez will need to figure out Dodgers pitching. He has a poor track record against their first three starters, particularly Derek Lowe, the Game 1 starter. In 13 career at-bats against the Dodgers' sinkerballer, Ramirez has mustered two hits -- a single and a double -- and has zero hits over his past eight at-bats against Lowe. While Ramirez has been unable to get many hits off Lowe, he has not exactly been fooled by him either. He's only struck out once. • Ramirez's .385 well-hit average against Lowe is much higher than his .256 well-hit average this season. Over his past eight at-bats against Lowe, he hit four balls on the money even though he went hitless. • He has put 57 percent of his swings in play against Lowe, which is much higher than his 39 percent in-play rate this season. Don't expect Lowe to alter his successful approach against Ramirez. Of the 46 pitches he has thrown to the Cubs third baseman, 35 have been fastballs and 23 of those have been down in the zone and have not yielded any hits. Both of Ramirez's hits against Lowe have come on heaters in the middle third of the zone. Ramirez stands a good chance of getting his bat on the ball in Wednesday's series opener. The question is whether some of his well-struck balls will fall in for hits like they did over the past five weeks.<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
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Gallardo

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Gallardo's got his heater back

Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo returned to the mound last week after missing most of the season with a knee injury. Although he threw just 67 pitches, an encouraging sign for the Brewers was that his fastball averaged 91 mph. That's slightly harder than last season, and not the 89 mph he was throwing over his three starts in April and May this year. Back then, Gallardo's fastball had not been anywhere as effective as in his rookie season, and he was able to get by mainly because of his off-speed pitches:<!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Batting average against Gallardo</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Season</td> <td>Fastball</td> <td>Off-speed</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2007</td> <td>.236</td> <td>.253</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2008</td> <td>.298</td> <td>.172</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> A fifth of Gallardo's pitches last season were curveballs, but that rose to 35 percent in April and May. Last week, he had his fastball working again and threw curves only 21 percent of the time. Pirates hitters went 2-for-13 against his fastball in that game, and got good wood on just one of his 49 heaters. The Phillies rank seventh in the majors in slugging percentage (.477) against fastballs and third in well-hit average (.280) against fastballs. Current Philadelphia hitters have had only moderate success against Gallardo's fastball, though. They are 4-for-19 with one home run and six strikeouts in at-bats ending with Gallardo throwing a fastball.
 

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Wednesday Wangdoodles

Wednesday, October 1, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry

Plenty of other stuff to talk about, but today we begin with a few AL Central playoff Wangdoodles …

• I guess this question doesn't come up often because we don't often have regular-season playoffs … But hey, what's with the coin flips? Might there be any good reason that winning the season series gets you the home field in a playoff game? Of course we don't know if it would have made any difference, but the Twins did win 10 of 18 games against the White Sox (before Tuesday night). Seems to me that in a just world, that would have earned them an advantage in their biggest game of the year.

• That said, the better team probably did win. The White Sox were fourth in OPS and sixth in OPS allowed; the Twins were ninth and 10th. Objectively -- and leaving aside luck in its most obvious manifestations -- the White Sox are probably the fourth or fifth best team in the American League, while the Twins were … well, you can figure the rest of the math for yourself (unless you're a Twins fan, in which case I suggest skipping this item altogether).

• I'm afraid a snicker escaped my lips in the third inning when TBS played their in-game interview with Ron Gardenhire.

Ron Darling said, "One thing I've seen so far, your hitters, their at-bats, are great at getting deep in counts, seeing a lot of the pitches from Danks so far."

Gardenhire responded, "Yeah, that's what you have to do. You have to work guys, and we try to do that, see enough pitches, and … if he makes some mistakes as we go along here, we'll get his pitch count up, he'll make some mistakes and we'll bang 'em."

First thing that's odd about this exchange is Darling's question, because in the first three innings the Twins were not particularly selective.

Another thing that's odd about this exchange is Gardenhire's answer. These are the same Twins who finished the season 10th in the American League in walks, and 11th in pitches per plate appearance. This was their lowest showing in the walks rankings since 2002 (when they also finished 10th), but of course when Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez are in the lineup every day you're not going to take many pitches or draw many walks. I don't hold the Twins' impatience against them; they're just not that sort of hitters, as a team. But it's odd to pretend that they are.

• I was slightly amused when Ken Griffey's two-hop throw home from shallow center field was hailed as evidence of Griffey's veteran skills. Look, it was an OK throw. But nobody notices if A.J. Pierzynski doesn't make the tough catch and the deft tag, hanging on to the baseball all the while. Griffey made one play moderately well and Pierzynski made two plays brilliantly. Yet it was Griffey who got all the attention.

OK, on to other things …

• We have our Comeback Players of the Year, and it's pretty hard to argue with Cliff Lee. But Brad Lidge in the National League, really? Lidge has of course been brilliant this year, converting all 41 of his save opportunities. But he wasn't exactly chopped liver last year, striking out 88 batters in 67 innings. If I were Ricky Nolasco, I might ask for a recount. Nolasco last year was 1-2 record and had a 5.48 ERA, and this year he went 15-8, 3.52. Now that's a comeback.

• Joe Posnanski writes about sportswriting and life. Joe's a nice guy, and winds up liking a lot of the people he writes about. Because he's also a good writer, this means he often winds up writing terrible (if honest) things about his friends. I don't know if I could do that. Which is why I'm glad I don't know any of my subjects. In Almost Famous, Lester Bangs says a writer must be "honest and merciless," but that's pretty tough when you wind up liking the people you're writing about. William Miller manages to pull it off in the movie. Somehow Joe does, too (for the most part; he can't help occasional bouts of mercy).

• My friend Steven Goldman is always worth reading, but I'm singling him out today because his piece about Pedro Martinez and Mike Mussina was published in the final edition of the New York Sun, which yesterday ceased publication. In addition to Goldman, the Sun has hosted a number of fine Baseball Prospectus writers, not to mention resident baseball writer Tim Marchman. I don't know where Marchman will land, but I do hope someone else has noticed that he's one of the best in the business. We'll miss him. But probably not for long.
 

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