Ice in the desert (Iceman's life in Las Vegas-October 2008)

Well the first month of "betting for a living" is in the books for me. I am pretty happy with the results. Here is a review betting wise of how I did and some thoughts to go with.

I have followed a few knowledgeable people from some forums in CFB and did well doing that. What I do is scan the forums and other places on the net for what certain people are saying in CFB and jot down what price they advise making these plays at. I then carry this small notebook with me and look for the same or hopefuly better numbers then they advise. I also started to play with some things in CFB on my own and did okay with those. CFB is a sport I havent done so great with in the past but it is something I plan on working hard at while I am here. I really have never put the time into it before. I now think it is the easeir of the 2 sports going right now (NFL the other). I did really well with CFB totals and struggled a little with CFB 2nd halfs. In the NFL I am a little upset, I have a few big accounts that I can play with so I took some shots and tried to middle somethings but I pissed away profits doing this. Going forward I am going to concentrate more on just going with 1 side and worry less about middling. Overall I lost money in the NFL for the month. Teasers really got me pretty good so hope that changes going forward. I feel like I bet well and got great numbers, epscially last week but that doesnt always matter results wise.

For the month I made 655 plays, which is a less than I forecasted. Overall September is a slow month for me. Something I keep a close eye on is I want to bet a certain amount of money each month and then win hopefully at a rate of 1-5%. I think that is realisitc for me from my past expierences doing this. I only ended up betting half of the amount I expected for the month due to the lower than expected volume of plays. I won at a 2.7% rate, which I am happy with but not estatic about. Since it was my first month here I will give myself a solid B maybe even a B+ results wise. I put in way more hours than I thought I would at home and probably overall for the month. I could probably save myself a ton of time if I learned how to write a computer program to crunch my numbers but instead it is al notebook, pen and calculator for me, LOL. Maybe next year by this time I will we able to do something like that.

I want to say thank god for the internet and forums. It has made this whole adventure way easier by sharing information. I would be lost without it. I have spoke to so many people on and off the forums that I have met over the net who have helped me tremendously this first month. I learned that betting downtown Vegas is way better than messing with the strip. I usually go 3 times a week in the middle of the day and hit 6-8 sportsbooks and jot down all the numbers and then go back to the ones that I like and bet at them. There are a handful of people out there everyday in the same spots. These people are betting and carrying HUGE money on them. I also love the Hilton and the Palms and hit them a few times a week.

I have decided to work alone at this right now. I think it works best for me. I had some chances to work with some people in the beginning but I just didnt see how in the end I would be making more money going that route. Maybe in the future but not right now and if so it would probably be with just one other guy. My thoughts are this: if I am going to give this a shot and this will probably be the only shot in my life at doing this, then I have to not only look out for me but I want to be the one making the final decisions. I think when you work with others then you run into who is the leader and numerous poetential other problems.

I think one of the things I have wanted to do since the beginning is to try and keep the stress level low doing this and I think overall I was able to do that for September. I think getting ahead early in the month helped. I will keep saying it over and over for others who may be thinking about doing someting like this, THERE WILL BE HUGE FLUCUATIONS IN YOUR BANKROLL. To me how you handle this is very important. I have read before that winning players hit a new bankroll high every 30 days or so. You must realize that you will not be at your peak bankroll wise very often, so you just cant upset about this. Nor can you look at it this way. You cant think about how you may have worked for free the past few weeks. In fact I have lost about close to 40% of my profits since September 14th but that stuff happens.

I have to make a decision today on if I am going to keep this 8 inch laptop. My 30 day money back guaranteee expires toworrow. It's $60 a month for internet access anywhere. Now it seems like a no brainer that I would use it but it is kind of a pain in the ass. I know that I will end up using it one day but right now I havent found the use for it I thought I would. It is extremely slow. I have noticed most just use their cell phones and I might go that route. Even though it is so small it is still a little too big to be lugging around. I will most likely keep it because I hate taking things back. I may just keep it in my vehicle and use it there.

That about sums it up as best as I can for month 1 from a betting prespective. It feels like I have been here for 2 years not 2 months. Vegas as a whole is growing on me. It is still hot and sunny every stinking day. I will miss October Michigan weather as that is my favorite month weather wise in the midwest. The traffic is about the only thing I dont like here, it just takes twice as long to get somewhere then you would estimate from the miles away you are. I have probably been in more traffic jams in 2 months then I have my entire life but I am use to them now and just consider to be expected daily.

About how much did you spend to move out there?

How much did you spend on rent, fun, food this month?

Whats your goal as far as monthly income?

Good Luck Ice

RoofTop said:

About how much did you spend to move out there?

How much did you spend on rent, fun, food this month?

Whats your goal as far as monthly income?

Good Luck Ice

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We caught our share of bad breaks when we moved out here. Also my GF wanted to make this home as close to a home atmostphere, so we moved a ton of things. Overall when you add in rental deposits, 1st month's rent, moving company, gas, hotel rooms, etc it was close to 10k. Now with that said if I was to do this alone I could probably do it for half. Also I am counting 1st months rent and deposits which I am not sure those should count but we lost 10k of liquid cash from when we moved till when we settled in. That hurt a little. The one thing I was most proud of when we moved is we charged NOTHING.

As fas as rent we spend $1,450 but live in a pretty nice neighborhood. We have two seperate accounts that we work off of and my GF's job pays for 99% of everything. This allows my gambling bankroll to be used just for gambling. I didnt want to come out here needing to "win the rent money". With that said combined we spend around 4k for everything maybe a tad more but the budget was 4k. It always seems like there are more hidden things popping up we didnt account for since we have been here (and before we got here) that hurts our planned budget, so realisticaaly it maybe higher than 4k a month. We have noticed groceries are more expensive here.

Basically I want to look back after a certain peorid of time and have grown the bankroll at a certain rate. When we decide to move to do something else in life I want to have a certain amount of money saved up from all of this. The plan is too never touch the bankroll and treat it as a business, growing this thing at a rate that it least goes up 3k a month on average or so, minimum. I dont want to put a concrete amount down on paper yet but this is what my numbers have shown from doing this in the past. Hopefully with the extra, time, money, knowledge and resources here in Vegas I can do much better then that but it is still way too early to say for sure.

Been hitting the downtown area the past few days and am starting to like it more and more as far getting good numbers. Got a route down pat now that I can cover in less than an hour and I catch some good numbers. I think I was concentrating too much on the NFL, where the numbers dont move as much. I am now into CFB line shopping a lot more. Like I said yesterday there are a handful of the same people downtown all day long (runners). I will eventually strike up some conversations with them. They obviously are a little nervous running around with tens of thousands of dollars and being approached by a stranger. After I build up some trust I would like to pick their brain a little. That whole thing intrigues me.

As far as the strip, that is pretty much worthless to me. I dont see myself hardly ever going down there now. Maybe after i figure some quick ways to get in and out I will hit the area but until then it is not for me.

Cant wait for the NBA to start. I feel I am about ready for it. The whole mindset as a bettor changes for me as it becomes a race all day to get good bets in. The total volume of bets for the day picks will pick up quite a bit then. I am sure it will take a few days too get a new routine down with that. Once again the whole time thing will be weird as I will have to getting into high intensity mode around 3pm and with halftimes it will be non stop till 8:30 or so most nights. Thankfully I got here in August as I cant imagine trying to bet everyday when I didnt know anything about the area when I first got here.

One of the things about being new to a town is that you dont any of the things or where to go. You basically start back over. Like I have to find a new doctor, grocery store, lawn company, etc. I am looking for a good pizza place for tomorrow as we are going to grab a pizza tomorrow nite. I have no idea where to go, anyone have suggestions in the Summerlin area please feel free to fire them out here.

Went to the Palms this morning and bet into their parlay cards. These come out on Tuesday so I was able to get some soft numbers. They brag all over the place about having the first cards of the week out so I figured I would go and try and take advantage of it. They looked them up down and all around and finally okay'd them by a supervisor. I tried to fly under the radar by playing $20 tickets. I round robined 5 teams so I had 10 combos and it cost me $200. I had a guy tell me that the books dont like it when a bettor round robins them.

bellyputter said:

This is almost comical to me. Twenty+ years ago, they laughed at people playing parlay cards. There used to be a spot that booked basketball parlay cards on a daily basis. That was juicy! How times have changed. Good Luck

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I think they probably do stil laugh quite a bit. I read the other day that they hold around 20-30% on parlay cards for the year. I would have to think those things are there biggest moneymakers on day to day to basis. Not sure what alerted this person woking, maybe cause I was using the same teams over and over or the $200's totals I played, not that is much but with parlay cards that is a little higher tham most.

Probably the most stunning thing from a betting viewpoint I have noticed since I have been here is how many locals play parlay cards, it is unbelievable. People stopping in all day long betting $1 cards on 8 teamers.

I had a guy approach me the other day at the RR and he asked the typical do you have a lock for the weekend question and then we started talking about parlay cards. At first says he hasnt had a winner in months and i am thinking what is he talking about. He says he hasnt cashed a ticket in almost 6 weeks. I say that is hard to believe as he says he bets everyday but then I find out he only plays parlay cards everyday. He then tells me he usually plays 6,7 or 8 team parlays. He says he was on fire till about 6 weeks ago. I told him those things are hard to win and that winning one every 6 weeks isnt easy. He says he plays one everyday and cant belive how unlucky he has been. He says no reason why he shouldn't win more than he has been. I just shrugged my shoulders, figured it was hopeless to carry on.

If I understand you correctly, you say you hope to make around $3k/month which = $48k/year. Wouldnt you make more with a traditional job?

from the latest LVA:

As always, late-developing football deals have surfaced. Here’s a rundown.
Juice—Planet Hollywood is offering -105 on Monday-night games for the remainder of the season. You can bet sides for the games only (no halftimes) with a maximum of $1,000. Station Casinos ran two juice-free nights in September, but we haven’t heard of any plans to repeat it.
Contests—It looks like we missed just one contest in our big round-up last month: a season-long weekly at Poker Palace. The maximum cash prize is $1,000. And an interesting wrinkle has surfaced in the Lucky’s contest at the Plaza, Terrible’s, and the Primm properties. It takes a perfect card to win the weekly $6,000 or the prize rolls over and accumulates the following week. Since this is one of the smaller contests, there were no perfect cards in the first three weeks and on week four the prize was $24,000. Eventually, this will turn into a high enough EV-play to be worth the time to complete the long-shot card. Save time by downloading your entry form at betatluckys.com.
Parlay Cards—For the fifth year running, Las Vegas Sun gambling columnist Jeff Haney has conducted his citywide study of football parlay-card payoffs. The best payout on a 3-teamer is 6-1 at Lucky’s books and Poker Palace; it’s the same payout as last year’s best. Last month’s LVA nod to the Hard Rock for its 12.5-1 payout for a 4-teamer holds up as the city’s best, and it’s a notch up from last year’s 12-1. The best payout for 5-teamers is 25-1 (down from 26-1) at Cal-Neva, Golden Nugget, Hard Rock, and Lucky’s; for 6-teamers it’s 51-1 (down from 53-1) at Cal-Neva, Golden Nugget, and Hard Rock; for 7-teamers it’s 103-1 (down from 109-1) at Cal-Neva; for 8-teamers it’s 207-1 (down from 219-1) at Cal-Neva; for 9-teamers it’s 419-1 (same) at Cal-Neva, Golden Nugget, Hard Rock, Lucky’s, and Palms; and for 10-teamers it’s 849-1 (down from 899-1) at Cal-Neva, Golden Nugget, Lucky’s, and Stratosphere. Haney’s study also named the worst payoffs, which were locked up in most cases by Planet Hollywood, Venetian, and Harrah’s.
Teasers—In another comparison published in the Sun, Haney identified the few books in town charging -110 juice for two-team 6-point teasers: Cal-Neva, Stratosphere/Arizona Charlie’s, and Wynn.

Relentless said:

If I understand you correctly, you say you hope to make around $3k/month which = $48k/year. Wouldnt you make more with a traditional job?

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not neccessairly make that much, as save the equivalent of 3k a month but I also dont plan on spending money out of this account either. This is year 1 minimum goals. The thing is it looks so easy on paper to say well I made 50k for the year and my avearage bet size was x amount so why dont I triple the average bet size and bingo. That isnt easy as looks for a variety of reasons.

I am not sure that I would make more WORKING FOR MYSELF than 48k. Also this is doing something I love doing for multiple reasons. Point me in the direction of making 50k on my own terms and I may go that route but I dont know many if not at anything that fits that criteria.

Thanks MJ, Keep them coming.

i read that Haney article the other day. He does a good job keeping sports gamblers informed on this type stuff.

I talked to a Stations casino sportsbook employee about the no juice thing and she rolled her eyes and said she heard no way this promo will happen again. She claims they lost their ass. Who knows.

Nothing better than working for yourself. Good luck!!!

Any idea as to what you think the ceiling is to what average bet size you could get up to while avoiding heat and getting down on the same quantity of bets as you do now?

Relentless said:

If I understand you correctly, you say you hope to make around $3k/month which = $48k/year. Wouldnt you make more with a traditional job?

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I'm not sure which is worse: figuring 3k/mo = 48k a year (hmmm, 12 months in a year, times 3k, equals...hmmm), or thinking that making more with a traditional job means the traditional job is a better idea.

About equivalent levels of intellect, those two thoughts.




Ice, glad you found my downtown route idea helpful. Just wait until CBK and you'll really love it.

And yeah, even though Wynn and Venetian are independent lines, the in-and-out aspect is too tedious unless you're there for poker anyway. And nothing else on the strip is interesting or necessary.

One warning: when it gets busy, the lines on the boards downtown, even when electronic, will sometimes be slow (especially if juicy).

What I do is give the clerk a few bucks and have him print out the current lines, which I can then sit down and study.

This is easier than looking at the board anyway, especially the boards with teams listed all over the place, and scrolling, so that when you find your number and look back at your sheet and find it again and then look back up it's gone. Just tip the poor slob a cup of coffee and take the updated lines right out of his computer. And do tip. Some of them, if you don't, will complain about it using too much computer paper.

I'm sure you know this, but make sure you check the odds on the parlay cards. I have seen some casinos that pay 10-1 on 4 team parlays for board bets but on the parlay cards the 10-1 includes the return of your bet. Don't know about 2 and 3 teamers and more than 4, I got burned on it years ago at Bally's and have seen it at at least one other place.

Actually it's 10 for 1.

They paid 10-1 off the board but 9-1 on the cards. You bet off the board and you got $550 back on a $50, only got back $500 on a $50 off the cards.

Damn was just 90 seconds away from a 4-0 night but Utah game scores 2 td's with 2:30 left to go over the total. Still a great night and off to a nice start so far this month with last night's 2-0.

MrMore,
Thank you so much. Tomorrow I am going to try and hit some places I have never hit before. I dont plan on doing this everyday but since it is friday I want to check everything out as saturdays I spend at home betting at my 12 or so offshore accounts, I need spedd with halftimes also. I have about 40 games I am loking at prices at. I am first going to look at Poker Palace and Jerry's Nugget, I know nothing about these 2 places but know they have independent numbers so I wanted to check them out, any thoughts? After that I am heading downtown then to the Hilton, Hard Rock (havent been there yet), Rio, Palms, AZ Charlies and maybe Rampart and Red Rock as I live close to them. I may screw it with a few of them if it gets old.

The thing I just have a lot more confidence shopping now then when I first started. At first I was impatient and not as orgainzed as I thought I was. It's just a lot different then when you bet online, Now I have a better feel if and when I should pull the trigger on a play. That comes from a lot of things but just being out there and seeing lots of numbers helps. You just know when a good price is in front of you and allows yo do to the things you want to do. I get a rush come over me when I find a great number. I will admit thought there is some fierce competition amongst some of the guys downtown.

I have explained to a half dozen tellers who I am and what I am doing and always hand them a few bucks. When I cash something like 903.40, I give them the $3.40. They live off tips. I had a long talk with a lady ticket writer yesterday about this same subject and she was bitiching about a few big runners who havent gave her a dime yet and she has too go to the extent of making copies everyday when they make a play and she has gets nothing from them ever. I mentioned to her that this could be hard for the runner as it is most likely not there money but she said she thinks they are involved with the money and she seems to think they always win (which to her I am sure it looks that way but I know how tough it can be). I guess I see both sides of it. A few writers told me they pretty much lve off the tips and that is the only reason they have the job. It must be odd to sit there and exchange 20k like it's nothing with a guy and not get a few bucks but like I said most likely its not the runners money.

The one book I am having a shit time with downtown is Leroy's , their boards are never updated. It is causing mass confusion on my end. I am leaving ohter oppurtunities on the table at other places as I think they have one number up and then I go back to bet it and they key it in and it is different then there baord (which is where the problem is as they use an old school board with a marker). Will have to go the have them print the lines way and like MM said that is way easier. I have did that before at the RR as there board is always chaning and is impossibile to keep up with.

One major thing I am doing is every night this week I am reviewing all my plays and now carry a sheet with who and how much on every play I have going up to date. I also always have the notebook with the teams I am looking to bet and the prices at each book and the strike price if I see it I will bet it. Now the one thing is the updated sheet is nice as the past few weeks I was not doing a good job having the right amount on sides I like and sometimes I would have a double or tripe sized play on a game I bet indiviaully each time throughout the week or the opposite would happen where I wouldnt have enough on a side as I let bets go because I thought I had played games for more and come tod out I didnt. Now that this was a huge problem. This may not seem like much of a problem to most but when you are making 150 plays total for the weekend like I have going, you can get confused and make small mistakes that add up quickly. This week I am doing a lot better with this. I am updating and rewriting things all week. I think most outsiders have little idea how much orgainzation goes into this but like anything it means a lot. If anything it gives me more confidence and keeps my head clear which to me is huge.

I can only imagine the whole CBB scene when it gets going. I am going to have to ease into that. Its basically CFB times 5 as you dont have all week to get prepared and stay on top of everything. Thankfully I have did a lot of this at home the past few years but it is still way different when you get outside your element like I plan to do this winter. The thing I hope for is the nice lines all over town, that will make it all worth it.

At Leroy's, you might also want to check their automated teller. It's lines should always be updated, and sometimes it's easier to bet there. I'm not sure which downtown location has an auto-teller, but I think GG does.

I've never been to Poker Palace and Jerry's Nugget, but if they're on your way downtown from Summerlin, they might be pretty useful. In-and-out parking ease is sick important in deciding a book's usefulness, though, isn't it? That's why the Hilton is good, and that's why Wild Wild West is better than the other Station's outs. It's so fast, and then quick down to the Rio/Palms (Gold Coast you can get downtown, put it has so many more college totals than the other places, esp in CBK, it might not hurt to check it twice). Biggest pain about the Palms/GC/Rio trio: though right next door to each other, crossing the street to the Palms sucks.

AZ Charlies (park in the back) is easy in-and-out for the Strat lines.

All this you're getting down. Sounds like, and I would have bet ahead of time, that you're getting increasingly efficient with experience. Going from running around like a chicken with your head cut off, to someone who knows exactly which exit, side street, parking space and even clerk he wants at each and every book, makes a big difference. Settling on a routine makes a difference, too, both for your effectiveness and your peace of mind. When I'm in Vegas betting baskets, I spend about 3 (casual, with a nice cup of coffee) hours a day on the computer first, then 2 hours on the road, then another hour back on the computer, and that's it. Less on slower days, twice that on Saturday, but you get the idea.

Eventually you'll be making intuitive calculations along the lines of "Hmm, Hilton has an extra half-point on this total I like, but I'm 14 minutes away, then add 6 minutes in-and-out time, and if betting $200 then the EV of a 1/2 point is only, say, $2, but my time, and gas, are worth more than $2 for 20 minutes, so....pass. We scrap hard for 1/2 points, but also have to be at peace about missing some.




BTW, If your 8-inch computer was going to be really useful, I'd think it would be so that you could have an excel spreadsheet going at all times for bet-tracking as well as line-service watching.

You've admitted you need to join the modern world on this. Stop being intimidated by it and just do it. I never read a book on excel or took a course, I just turned it on and years later am now pretty expert at it. It's really a cool, fun tool, in a nerdy, numbers-loving way.

Turn it on.
Put a number, any number, in the most upper-left box, which is cell A1 (boxes are called cells, columns are lettered, rows are numbered).
Put another number, any number, in the next box (cell B1).
In the next box, (cell C1), put, exactly like this:

=A1+B1

Then play with the numbers in A1 and B1 and watch C1 auto-change to keep up with it.

And that's the whole basic idea. The rest you'll learn as you go along. It's fun, not tedious.

Thanks MM. You ever think about going into teaching? You seriously do an awesome job explaining things. There is a certian clarity you bring in your explainations. I leave everyone of your posts with a few more thoughts and ideas. Honestly in the 3 years I have been at the RX your posts are one of the best, if not the best I have ever read here. There is just a level of conifdence you bring in all of your posts that helps me tremendously with all this.

One thing I meant to ask and didnt (and you answered it anyway) is having a Stations out, where is the best one as I dont like anyone in particular. You say the WWW. I have never been there and will add them to my list.

Another I like to do (but I dont do enough) is too make my rounds earlier in the day as there is less traffic. But I am not sure this is the smart thing to do as most of the numbers are the same for the little to no movement they have in the mornings. The few times I have worked the mornings I can get in and out a lot faster and dont feel as rushed as the afternoons but like I said I am not sure mornings are beneficial enough.

That whole thing with the spreadsheet. I bet I can save so much more time with it in a few different ways. None of my stuff I do is that complex but more time consuming then anything. I have already thought of 3 different things I would like to test out with it. My GF works pretty well with the computer so I think between her and I that I can pick up some things that should help. I have debated on and on about taking the 8 in laptop back but I didnt and the 30 day guarnatee expired. I knew in the longrun I would find a use for it and now things are starting to make more sense. I might just leave it with me in the truck throughout the running around. Sort of setup a mini office in there or take into a few places from time to time.

You are so right about the whole getting in and out. Sometimes I will bypass areas cause of this very reason. I am getting the hang of somethings but need to learn this more. Hell the first 2 weeks I parked iin the front of the Hilton, LOL. What a mess that was until I heard others talk about the back enterance.

You know Ice, you might try Boulder Hwy to get some lines. You can get off at the Boulder Hwy exit on the I-515,and stop at Boulder Station, and then go down the road to Arizona Charlies for the Strat lines. Then further south to Sam's Town, and check out their new beautiful book. By that time it should be time for lunch, or make time, because across from Sam's is a brand new Tommy's World famous Chil Cheese Burgers!! Look for the red roof near Wal Mart Super Center.

After lunch, stop by the Eastside Cannery. I imagine they have the same lines as the Rampart. Have fun, I'll be out there a week from tomorrow.

ICE--

Sports ticket writers do not live off tips.

The majority of ticket writers in the city make less than $500 per year in tips.