Lackey dominant, but hittable, down the stretch

BadCo · Oct 1, 2008

Lackey dominant, but hittable, down the stretch

John Lackey has been a reliable starter for the Angels, but he has been less consistent recently. After spending the first six weeks of the season on the disabled list, Lackey went 10-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 18 starts. He followed that strong run, though, by going 2-3 with a 6.17 ERA over his last six outings of the regular season. Lackey's control and dominance were strong throughout the regular season. He simply gave up more hits down the stretch. Opponents' batting average jumped from .239 to .357 after Aug. 31. Hitters got better swings on his fastball, because Lackey elevated more of them above the belt:
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Lackey's high fastball</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Past six starts</td> <td>First 18 starts</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of fastballs located up</td> <td>35.5</td> <td>25.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA</td> <td>.483</td> <td>.181</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG</td> <td>.724</td> <td>.361</td> </tr> </tbody></table>  Lackey struggled recently to keep his heater down after falling behind in the count. He located 51 percent of fastballs in the lower third in his first 18 starts after falling behind hitters. Over his last six starts, Lackey has kept only 38 percent of fastballs down in hitters' counts. In those outings, hitters have slugged .742 with two home runs with the count in their favor. He hasn't had a feel for his curve, either, which is not fooling hitters in the zone: <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Lackey's curveball in strike zone</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Past six starts</td> <td>First 18 starts</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss percentage of swings</td> <td>5.0</td> <td>13.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BA</td> <td>.318</td> <td>.184</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG</td> <td>.591</td> <td>.289</td> </tr> </tbody></table> A strikeout pitcher like Lackey should have a postseason edge because he can keep the ball out of play when runners are on. If he gets two strikes on the hitter, Lackey usually finishes them off. Before two strikes, however, the Angels' ace has been about average recently with runners aboard: <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Runners on base, not two strikes</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>In-play pct. of swings</td> <td>On-base percentage</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Lackey over past six starts</td> <td>43.2</td> <td>.421</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>League average</td> <td>42.1</td> <td>.417</td></tr></tbody></table>

5-0SAT · Oct 1, 2008

Everything is different in October

knucklecup · Oct 1, 2008

5-0 SAT said:
Everything is different in October

Especially for Vlad Guerrero.

5-0SAT · Oct 1, 2008

knucklecup said:
Especially for Vlad Guerrero.

hahaha. indeed. going to be a new october for vladdy, got texiera and hunter now. going to have a big series, less pressure

BadCo · Oct 1, 2008

John Lackey #41 SP
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<table class="tablehead statCont" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="gamehead"><td colspan="5">2008 STATS</td></tr> <tr class="colhead playerStatSub"><td>ERA</td><td>W-L</td><td>SO</td><td>WHIP</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow playerStats"><td>3.75</td><td>12-5</td><td>130</td><td>1.23</td></tr> </tbody></table>  <table class="tablehead statCont" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="gamehead"><td colspan="3">2008 FANTASY STATS</td></tr> <tr class="colhead playerStatSub"><td>% OWN</td><td>WK +/-</td><td>AVG DRAFT</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow playerStats"><td>84.8%</td><td>-0.3%</td><td>97.6</td></tr> </tbody></table>
  <table class="metaData" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top">  <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top">Full Name</td><td valign="top">John Derran Lackey</td></tr> <tr> <td valign="top">Birth Date</td><td valign="top">October 23, 1978</td></tr> <tr> <td valign="top">Birth Place</td><td valign="top">Abilene, TX</td></tr> <tr> <td valign="top">Age</td><td valign="top">29</td></tr> </tbody></table>  </td> <td valign="top">  <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top">Weight</td><td valign="top">245 lbs.</td></tr> <tr> <td valign="top">Height</td><td valign="top">6-6</td></tr> <tr> <td valign="top">Bats</td><td valign="top">Right</td></tr> <tr> <td valign="top">Throws</td><td valign="top">Right</td></tr> </tbody></table>  </td> <td valign="top">  <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top">Experience</td><td valign="top">6 years</td></tr> <tr> <td valign="top">Drafted</td><td valign="top">Second round draft pick</td></tr> <tr> <td valign="top">Salary</td><td valign="top">2008: $7,333,333</td></tr> </tbody></table>  </td> </tr> </tbody></table> 
  Next Start:
Red Sox at Angels
Wednesday 10/1, 10:00 PM ET

  Profile Stats Splits Game Log Bat vs. Pitch News Scouting Photos Fantasy

  <table class="tablehead" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="stathead" bgcolor="#dc2024"><td colspan="19">John Lackey pitching vs. Boston Red Sox</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td colspan="20"><table class="tablesm" border="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><form>Angels Pitchers
<select id="url1" name="url" onchange="gotosite(this.options[this.selectedIndex].value)" class="tablesm"> <option value="bvsp?playerId=29113&teamId=2">Jose Arredondo</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=6230&teamId=2">Jason Bulger</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=3680&teamId=2">Kelvim Escobar</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=4235&teamId=2">Jon Garland</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=29265&teamId=2">Kevin Jepsen</option> <option selected="selected" value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=2">John Lackey</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=5342&teamId=2">Shane Loux</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=6214&teamId=2">Dustin Moseley</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=29081&teamId=2">Darren O'Day</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=2969&teamId=2">Darren Oliver</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=5357&teamId=2">Francisco Rodriguez</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=6280&teamId=2">Ervin Santana</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=6383&teamId=2">Joe Saunders</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=4722&teamId=2">Scot Shields</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=3854&teamId=2">Justin Speier</option> <option value="bvsp?playerId=6479&teamId=2">Jered Weaver</option> </select><noscript><INPUT type=submit value=GO onsubmit="gotosite(document.forms[0].url.options[document.forms[0].url.selectedIndex].value);return false"></noscript></form></td><td> vs. </td><td><form>Teams
<select id="url2" name="url" onchange="gotosite(this.options[this.selectedIndex].value)" class="tablesm"> <option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=29">Arizona </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=15">Atlanta </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=1">Baltimore </option><option selected="selected" value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=2">Boston </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=16">Chicago Cubs </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=4">Chicago Sox </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=17">Cincinnati </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=5">Cleveland </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=27">Colorado </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=6">Detroit </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=28">Florida </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=18">Houston </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=7">Kansas City </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=3">LA Angels </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=19">LA Dodgers </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=8">Milwaukee </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=9">Minnesota </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=21">NY Mets </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=10">NY Yankees </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=11">Oakland </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=22">Philadelphia </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=23">Pittsburgh </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=25">San Diego </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=26">San Francisco </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=12">Seattle </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=24">St. Louis </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=30">Tampa Bay </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=13">Texas </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=14">Toronto </option><option value="bvsp?playerId=5203&teamId=20">Washington</option></select><noscript><INPUT type=submit value=GO onsubmit="gotosite(document.forms[0].url.options[document.forms[0].url.selectedIndex].value);return false"></noscript></form> </td><td width="2"><spacer type="block" width="2"></td><td> Angels batters vs. Red Sox pitchers </td><td width="2"><spacer type="block" width="2"></td><td> Red Sox pitchers vs. Angels batters </td><td width="2"><spacer type="block" width="2"></td><td><form><others vs.="" bos="">
<select id="url3" name="url" onchange="gotosite(this.options[this.selectedIndex].value)" class="tablesm"> <option selected="selected">Select Team </option><option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=29&teamId=2">Arizona</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=15&teamId=2">Atlanta</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=1&teamId=2">Baltimore</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=2&teamId=2">Boston</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=16&teamId=2">Chicago Cubs</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=4&teamId=2">Chicago Sox</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=17&teamId=2">Cincinnati</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=5&teamId=2">Cleveland</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=27&teamId=2">Colorado</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=6&teamId=2">Detroit</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=28&teamId=2">Florida</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=18&teamId=2">Houston</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=7&teamId=2">Kansas City</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=3&teamId=2">LA Angels</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=19&teamId=2">LA Dodgers</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=8&teamId=2">Milwaukee</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=9&teamId=2">Minnesota</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=21&teamId=2">NY Mets</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=10&teamId=2">NY Yankees</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=11&teamId=2">Oakland</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=22&teamId=2">Philadelphia</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=23&teamId=2">Pittsburgh</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=25&teamId=2">San Diego</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=26&teamId=2">San Francisco</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=12&teamId=2">Seattle</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=24&teamId=2">St. Louis</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=30&teamId=2">Tampa Bay</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=13&teamId=2">Texas</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=14&teamId=2">Toronto</option> <option value="bvsp?pitchTeam=20&teamId=2">Washington</option></select><noscript><INPUT type=submit value=GO onsubmit="gotosite(document.forms[0].url.options[document.forms[0].url.selectedIndex].value);return false"></noscript> </others></form></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr> <tr class="colhead" align="right"><td align="left" width="130">OPPOSING HITTER</td><td width="35">AB</td><td width="35">H</td><td width="35">2B</td><td width="35">3B</td><td width="35">HR</td><td width="35">RBI</td><td width="35">BB</td><td width="35">SO</td><td width="50">BA</td><td width="50">OBP</td><td width="50">SLG</td><td width="50">OPS</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"> <td align="left">Mark Kotsay</td> <td class="sortcell">34</td> <td>9</td> <td>3</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>7</td> <td>.265</td> <td>.286</td> <td>.353</td> <td>.639</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="right"> <td align="left">David Ortiz</td> <td class="sortcell">30</td> <td>10</td> <td>3</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>9</td> <td>4</td> <td>6</td> <td>.333</td> <td>.412</td> <td>.700</td> <td>1.112</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="right"> <td align="left">Jason Varitek</td> <td class="sortcell">24</td> <td>5</td> <td>3</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>2</td> <td>3</td> <td>10</td> <td>.208</td> <td>.296</td> <td>.333</td> <td>.630</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="right"> <td align="left">Coco Crisp</td> <td class="sortcell">22</td> <td>4</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>3</td> <td>.182</td> <td>.250</td> <td>.455</td> <td>.705</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="right"> <td align="left">Alex Cora</td> <td class="sortcell">19</td> <td>5</td> <td>2</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>.263</td> <td>.300</td> <td>.368</td> <td>.668</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="right"> <td align="left">Mike Lowell</td> <td class="sortcell">19</td> <td>3</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>5</td> <td>.158</td> <td>.158</td> <td>.158</td> <td>.316</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="right"> <td align="left">Julio Lugo</td> <td class="sortcell">18</td> <td>4</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>2</td> <td>4</td> <td>.222</td> <td>.300</td> <td>.278</td> <td>.578</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="right"> <td align="left">Kevin Youkilis</td> <td class="sortcell">17</td> <td>5</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>2</td> <td>4</td> <td>0</td> <td>4</td> <td>.294</td> <td>.294</td> <td>.647</td> <td>.941</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="right"> <td align="left">J.D. Drew</td> <td class="sortcell">16</td> <td>5</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>3</td> <td>.313</td> <td>.389</td> <td>.500</td> <td>.889</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="right"> <td align="left">Dustin Pedroia</td> <td class="sortcell">12</td> <td>5</td> <td>2</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>.417</td> <td>.462</td> <td>.583</td> <td>1.045</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="right"> <td align="left">Jacoby Ellsbury</td> <td class="sortcell">6</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>2</td> <td>.000</td> <td>.000</td> <td>.000</td> <td>.000</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="right"> <td align="left">Sean Casey</td> <td class="sortcell">4</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>.000</td> <td>.200</td> <td>.000</td> <td>.200</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="right"> <td align="left">David Ross</td> <td class="sortcell">3</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>.333</td> <td>.333</td> <td>.333</td> <td>.667</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" align="right"> <td align="left">Totals</td><td>224</td><td>56</td><td>15</td><td>2</td><td>6</td><td>20</td><td>16</td><td>48</td><td>.250</td><td>.303</td><td>.415</td><td>.718</td></tr></tbody></table>

BadCo · Oct 1, 2008

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<table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(220, 32, 36) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="9">Stats</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" align="right"> <td> </td><td>G</td><td>GS</td><td>W</td><td>L</td><td>ERA</td><td>IP</td><td>BB</td><td>SO</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="right"> <td align="left">2008</td><td>24</td><td>24</td><td>12</td><td>5</td><td>3.75</td><td>163.1</td><td>40</td><td>130</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" align="right"> <td align="left">2008 vs. BOS</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>2.81</td><td>16.0</td><td>4</td><td>10</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table style="width: 100%;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td style="width: 50%;"> <table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(220, 32, 36) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="10">Inside Edge </td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" align="right"> <td> </td><td>ALL</td><td>FIRST PITCH</td><td>EARLY</td><td>TWO STRIKES</td><td>AHEAD</td><td>BEHIND</td><td>VS RHB</td><td>VS LHB</td><td>OPP BA</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left">Fastballs</td><td>62%</td><td>69%</td><td>64%</td><td>52%</td><td>54%</td><td>70%</td><td>64%</td><td>60%</td><td>.287</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left">Curves</td><td>21%</td><td>19%</td><td>19%</td><td>27%</td><td>24%</td><td>16%</td><td>19%</td><td>24%</td><td>.212</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left">Sliders</td><td>13%</td><td>9%</td><td>12%</td><td>18%</td><td>19%</td><td>9%</td><td>16%</td><td>9%</td><td>.145</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left">Change Ups</td><td>4%</td><td>3%</td><td>5%</td><td>2%</td><td>3%</td><td>5%</td><td>1%</td><td>7%</td><td>.413</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left">Other</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>--</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left">Totals</td><td>3692</td><td>1024</td><td>2298</td><td>1021</td><td>1411</td><td>714</td><td>1967</td><td>1725</td><td>.258</td></tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td style="width: 50%;"> <script type="text/javascript"> //<![CDATA[ var SOB=new flashObj(); SOB.flashFile="http://static.espn.go.com/swf/insideedge/xmlpitch_005.swf"; SOB.flashVars = "&datafile=http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/xml/insideEdgeXML?playerId=5203"; SOB.width = "300"; SOB.height = "225"; SOB.DenyIEdl = "TRUE"; SOB.quality = "best"; SOB.FlashVer = 6; SOB.cabVersion = "6,0,0,0"; document.write(SOB.render()); //]]> </script><embed src="http://static.espn.go.com/swf/insideedge/xmlpitch_005.swf" swliveconnect="FALSE" quality="best" scale="exactfit" flashvars="&datafile=http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/xml/insideEdgeXML?playerId=5203" wmode="opaque" id="flash2" name="flash2" menu="false" devicefont="false" salign="lt" allowscriptaccess="Always" allownetworking="All" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash" height="225" width="300"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> -- means there is no data for this category at this time.

ksta7090ks · Oct 1, 2008

I hate betting on teams that clinch so early, Sox played meaningful baseball right to the end, thinking they had chance to take DIvisonal from Tampa. Experience factor obviously goes to SOX. I think pressure is on Halos too, Sox probably more relaxed here. Halos still have the monkey on their back(pun intended) with all their recent playoff losses to the Sox in the past.