Intrade has consistently had a lower price on Obama different from all of the other markets out there (betfair, matchbook, other sportsbooks, iowa markets, etc etc). Someone has been manipulating the price there for whatever reason. No big deal, but I don't think it's right to say that Intrade is a true market reflection.
And by the way, I'm very happy that this has been the case.
ope:
Ive got about 12% of my bankroll at average odds of Obama -130.
I wondering wether to be greedy and ride it out as a LOCK or protect myself a bit....
If I protect myself, should I wait a bit or grab thes odds of +420 now?
I still remember Last year when BUSH was +300 or more on the morning of the election and wound up winning.
I wondering wether to be greedy and ride it out as a LOCK or protect myself a bit....
If I protect myself, should I wait a bit or grab thes odds of +420 now?
I still remember Last year when BUSH was +300 or more on the morning of the election and wound up winning.
You mean 4 years ago. If that was the case you might want to hedge. I think it would be a waste of money but you would still make a nice profit if your hedge loses. I don't think there's anyway Mccain wins at the point. Bush did lose in 2004 until they fixxed the outcome of the Florida votes. This will not happen this year. Again hedge is a waste of money, but it will protect your position against the unthinkable happening.
