Service Plays Sunday 10/12/08

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HONDO

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Hondo, riding high and feeling mighty after ringing up an 11-2 record in Week 4, crashed and burned in Week 5 with a 4-8-2 mark that left him tied for third. Luckily for Mr. Aitch, he didn't lose much ground because of the general ineptitude of those ahead of him.

Jets New York Jets over Bengals: A quick check of this week's Bengwads' blotter shows that a backup LB was suspended for using a banned substance, but no one was arrested. There must be some mistake. Regardless, the 0 and cinco Bengwads have no chance now that Favre and Coles have found symbiosis.

Saints over Raiders: This matchup normally would call for a Raider play because of the New Coach Theory. However, Hondo's Handicapping Bible, which is adhered to religiously by HondoNation, calls for an override when that theory is up against the Avoid The Raiders Because Al Davis Is A Doddering Washed-Up Lunatic Theory.

Ravens over Colts: Congratulations are in order for Mike "L'il Him" Lupica and MSNBC's Keith Olbermann (aka Uberdork), who were named Obama-Biden Co-Lap Dogs Of The Week, barely nosing out the always formidable Anchors for Obama.

Panthers over Bucs: Make the Tom V SuperSystem (visiting 'dog getting less than three) work for you.

Lions over Vikings: Apparently, Millen did not have pictures of Lions' owner William Clay Ford in compromising positions as suspected. So now the big mystery is why it took so long to fire the most incompetent GM in NFL history.

Falcons over Bears: Peter "Petey Perv" Cook, Christie-Brinkley's ex, tells 20/20 tonight he hopes "the world will see that I'm not the pervert that I have been painted to be." Unfortunately, by repeatedly taking "matters" into his own hands in front of a webcam, he pretty much has locked up pervert-for-life status.

Dolphins over Texans: The wrong side's favored, which makes this the Market's Down 40 Percent And Retirement's Approaching Bailout Pick Of The Week.

Rams over Redskins: Speaking of on-line porn freaks, David Duchovny is out of sexual addiction rehab, apparently having been cured of his devotion to the smutty side of the Internet. From now he'll stick to magazines.

Broncos over Jaguars: The Pilgrim Congregational Church in Weymouth, Mass., now has a weekly "Woof 'n' Worship" service that dogs can attend. It's a wonderful program because it gives the hounds a chance to take a break from licking themselves so they can focus on getting in touch with their spiritual side.

49ers over Eagles: Additionally, the pious pups can pray for forgiveness for such sins as: passing gas in the car, urinating on the rug, passing gas in the house, coughing up tinfoil, excessive shedding, senseless barking, and grinding on the neighbor's leg.

Cardinals over Cowboys: The Cowboys are a reflection of their fat and soft coach.

Packers over Seahawks: Take the points, but give to the Joey Doyle Memorial Scholarship Fund (Joey Doyle). Friends and family of Joey - Packer fan and Wagner College record-holding pitcher before becoming a Cantor Fitzgerald 9/11 victim - will be holding their sixth annual benefit Sunday at Level One on Staten Island (across the street from the Annandale Train Station). The doors open at noon and will close when all the fun and giving are done.

Chargers over Patriots: Dominatrixes in the city want to form a union to help them collect money from clients who are in arrears. Why don't they just beat it out of them? That way everybody's happy.

Browns over Giants: Careful, Big Blue boosters, Laxico's iffy for the Monday nighter. His 21-month-old son is taking some night classes and doesn't have a ride this week.

BEST BETS: Jets, Dolphins, Chargers.

WUNDERDOG

Game: Green Bay at Seattle (Sunday 10/12 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Seattle +1 (-110)
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Dominic Brando, 13-5 nfl run with mostly all underdogs

Sunday October 19th NFL Week Six Executive Report:

Standard Against the Spread Releases:
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #203 OAKLAND RAIDERS +8/-120 over New Orleans Saints
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #205 BALTIMORE RAVENS +5/-120 over Indianapolis Colts
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #219 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4/-115 over Denver Broncos
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #224 ARIZONA CARDINALS +6/-125 over Dallas Cowboys
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #226 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS PICK/-120 over Green Bay Packers

NFL Week Six Money Line Releases:
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #203 OAKLAND RAIDERS +275 over New Orleans Saints
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #205 BALTIMORE RAVENS +185 over Indianapolis Colts
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #219 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +165 over Denver Broncos
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #224 ARIZONA CARDINALS +190 over Dallas Cowboys
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #226 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -125 over Green Bay Packers

Dominic Brando Sports
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Sports Wise Guys

5 Star Picks (Week 6):

Seattle -2 over Green Bay
Chicago -2.5 over Atlanta
New England +6 over San Diego
Philadelphia/San Francisco Over 43
New Orleans/Oakland Under 47.5
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VEGAS VIC

Chargers due for payback, and that should pay off nicely
by Vegas Vic

HOME TEAM in CAPITAL LETTERS

CHARGERS (-5) over Patriots (NBC10)

Triple revenge is on the table and it's the main course. Over the last two seasons, New England and Tom Brady have been comparable to arsenic in San Diego's Gatorade. In 2006, the Lightning Bolts lost at home to Tom Brady, 24-21. In 2007, San Diego was squashed by Tom Brady at New England, in the second game of the season, 38-14. And in the AFC Championship, Tom Brady and the Pats posted a 21-12 victory at San Diego before losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl. Did I mention Tom Brady? Oh, yeah. The last time we saw a Tom Brady reference, it was about his knee surgery. So, no Tom Brady. Enter Matt Cassel. He has New England off to a 3-1 start, but they've played Kansas City, the Jets, Miami and San Francisco, teams that have a combined 7-11 record. Not that the Bolts have a great mark at 2-3, but at home, they are spectacular, posting a 17-3 mark the last 2 years.

Rams (+14) over REDSKINS

Seriously? Yup, seriously. Double V is taking the 0-4 team from St. Louis against the second-best team in the best division in the NFL? Yup. The same team that has been outscored, 147-43? Yup. Reasons please? Let's tap into the Redskins thought process. They are 4-1 with the toughest part of the schedule out of the way. They come off two huge road wins (26-24 at Dallas, 23-17 at the Eagles). Next up, it's St. Louis, Cleveland and Detroit. Naturally, everyone in the locker room is looking at taking a 7-1 record into the Monday-night game against Pittsburgh on Nov. 3. Looking ahead has been the downfall of many teams. We're not suggesting upset, but since the 'Skins' largest margin of victory so far this season has been seven points, how about a final margin of a dozen. More than comfortable for the home team, and a cover for Vic.

Eagles (-5) over 49ERS

First two games, the Birds are flying into the end zone, scoring 75 points. The last three games, they've scratched out only 52. Time for Donovan to get angry, and he has. And here's a little piece of history that says, buy Philly. In 2006, the Eagles lost to the Giants, and NFC East foe, then flew out West the following week and crushed San Francisco, 38-24. History does repeat itself, and the Birds rarely lose three in a row.

TEXANS (-3) over Dolphins

Two wins for Miami and people are starting to talk playoffs. Are you kidding me?! Gotta like the direction that the Fish are swimming, but the water is gonna get a little muddy in Texas. Houston, Sage Rosenfels in particular, gave away the game last week with two late fumbles, but Matt Schaub will be under center this week, and they hope, turnover-free. And don't forget that the Texans are 3-0 lifetime against the Dolphins.

Jaguars (+3) over BRONCOS

Last week, we spoke about Denver's glorious record at home over the last decade (62-24), but against the spread the last 2 years, it's been a rough go. The Broncos have covered only five of the last 19, and in their three wins at Mile High this season, the Broncs have won 39-38, 34-32 and 16-13. That's an average of two points per game, and with Jacksonville's solid road record vs. the spread (covering eight of the last 12), the Jags are worth a tumble.

SEAHAWKS (-2) over Packers

There have not been too many 30-plus-point losses in Mike Holmgren's 10 years at the helm in Seattle. Actually, it happened once, in 2006, a 37-6 loss at Chicago, and the 'Hawks bounced back the following week with a win.

BROWNS (+8) over Giants (ESPN)

Defending Super Bowl champs at 4-0 against a bunch of misfits from Cleveland. Why buy the Brownies? They have covered an astounding eight of the last 10 at home.

SAINTS (-7) over Raiders

This week, when Reggie Bush collects a few hundred all-purpose yards, it'll be a double-digit win for New Orleans.

Ravens (+4) over COLTS

Baltimore has won and or been competitive in every game, a trend that will continue.

Bengals (+6) over JETS

Cincy ain't as bad as everyone thinks, and Favre always gives away a few gifts.

BUCCANEERS (-1) over Panthers

Can't buck Tampa's current 4-1 spread record.

Lions (+13) over VIKINGS

Would recommend putting this game in the no-fly zone.

FALCONS (+3) over Bears

In Year 2 AV (After Vick), Atlanta is 3-2 overall and 2-0 at home.

Cowboys (-4) over CARDINALS

How 'bout them Cowboys? And how 'bout the fact that they have won 12 of the last 13 on the road?
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Allen Eastman

$2500.00#214 Atlanta (+3) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12) UNDER DOG GOY

$2000.00 #209 Carolina (+1.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

$600.00 ‘Under’ 45.5 Detroit at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

$400.00 ‘Over’ 36.5 Carolina at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

$2000.00 #224 Arizona (+5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

$300.00 #205 Baltimore (+4.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)

TEASER
10 POINT MOVE
ATL +13
TB OVER 26.5
CAR+2....................................$200.00
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MADDUX SPORTS NFL Football

#203 - NFL - 3 units on Oakland +7
#210 - NFL - 3 units on Tampa Bay -1.5
#214 - NFL - 3 units on Atlanta +3
#219 - NFL - 5 units on Jacksonville & Denver Over 48
#224 - NFL - 3 units on Arizona +5

Vernon Croy's **25 Unit NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR**
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals (Oct 12 4:15 PM)
Over 50.0 (-110.0)
25 Units, Take the Over, I look for s shoot-out Sunday afternoon so take the Over as my NFL Total of the Year.

2008-10-08 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE WEEK!
Pick # 1 Chicago Bears /Atlanta Falcons Over 43.5 110




2008-10-11 RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET
Pick # 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (3.5)

Sunday October 19th NFL Week Six Executive Report:

Standard Against the Spread Releases:
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #203 OAKLAND RAIDERS +8/-120 over New Orleans Saints
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #205 BALTIMORE RAVENS +5/-120 over Indianapolis Colts
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #219 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4/-115 over Denver Broncos
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #224 ARIZONA CARDINALS +6/-125 over Dallas Cowboys
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #226 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS PICK/-120 over Green Bay Packers

NFL Week Six Money Line Releases:
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #203 OAKLAND RAIDERS +275 over New Orleans Saints
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #205 BALTIMORE RAVENS +185 over Indianapolis Colts
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #219 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +165 over Denver Broncos
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #224 ARIZONA CARDINALS +190 over Dallas Cowboys
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #226 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -125 over Green Bay Packers

Dominic Brando Sports<!-- / message -->

EZ Sunday

5* Houston -3

5* Seattle -1.5

3* Atlanta +3

2* St. Louis +14

Sun, 10/12/08 - 4:05 PMStephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet220 DEN / 219 JAC Over 48.0 Bodog
Analysis:
Jaguars-Broncos Over 48

Analysis: The Broncos pass well and the Jaguars have the potential to run well. That goes hand-in-hand with each team's major defensive weakness.

The Broncos surrendered 198 yards rushing to Larry Johnson two weeks ago in a shocking loss to the Chiefs. Denver ranks 29th in defense and 25th in points allowed. The Broncos' undersized defense can't stop good running backs.

The Jagaurs have two good ones, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. The key for Jacksonville is a banged-up offensive line that is getting more healthy. The Jaguars have scored 51 points in their last two games as their offense heats up.

Denver should put up plenty of points against a banged-up Jacksonville secondary. Behind strong-armed Jay Cutler, the Broncos are averaging nearly 30 points a game and rank second in yards and in passing yards per game.

Trend-wise there are strong indications to an 'over,' too. The Jaguars have gone 'over' in 11 of their last 13 road games. The Broncos are 20-6 to the 'over' in their last 26 games, including 4-1 this season.

Sun, 10/12/08 - 1:00 PMKing Creole | NFL Side
triple-dime bet216 HOU -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 215 MIA
Analysis: 1:00pm ET / Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
3*** BEST BET on: HOUSTON TEXANS
*If needed, the sharp player would make sure (buy?) his line is -2.5 or less.

Kevin Kavitch Overall 17-11-1 headed into Week 6. Tops are now 4-0-0. ATS picks are 15-7-1 68% while the totals are only 2-4-0.


Denver is fortunate to be sitting pretty at 4-1 with a comfy 2-game lead in their division. That helps us here and I feels the 2-3 Jags are the better team and there's no question they'll also be the better motivated team off a tough loss to the Steelers. Jacksonville won't be intimidated going into Denver. Last season they came into Denver and won 23-14 as 3 point dogs while running for almost 200 yards. The Broncos are again listed as home favorites here, a role they've surprisingly been poor at in recent seasons. The Jags other 2 losses came against Buffalo & Tennessee in tight games to open the season so quality of opponent has played a big role in their 2-3 start. The Denver defense has struggled and Jacksonville has an excellent chance to win the line of scrimmage and the game. This one is getting added early due to the extra line value of +3.5 but don't shy away if the line does eventually settle at +3. Take Jacksonville +3.5 for a 5* Top Play


The Bengals appear to be an ugly team to back but I expect this is one of those games where the public will get killed backing the obvious favorite. Winless NFL teams that have things going for them make for long-term pointspread success. The Bengals fit the bill. They've given the Giants and Cowboys everything they can handle the past 3 weeks and along with a loss to the Browns where they were -3 in turnovers and playing without Palmer. Palmer is back the Bengals are showing signs of life. I expect him to have even more confidence after testing his arm out under live fire last week. There is no question that Cincy will be the better motivated team and while the Jets are off to a decent start, they are not a special team that would cause us to back off here. They have some deficiencies in their pass defense and their running game has underachieved. The Bengal pass defense has been better than expected this year and are getting healthier which can make an immediate impact. They can hang with New York in this situation. A quick look at the line shows a ton of public action on the Jets but suspiciously the books have been forced to move the line in the opposite direction from -6.5 to -6. Like I've been saying all year, seen this movie before and no doubt the early smart money is on the Bengals. Don't be surprised if the Bengals pull a shocker here and I like this one enough to make a 2nd Top Play which is rare. Take Cincinnati +6 for a 5* Top Play.<!-- / message -->

FYI

Palmer & Westbrook are out.

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider: 4-0 in NFL

Larry's exclusive NFL Insiders are a PERFECT 4-0 this year (Hurricane Ike postponed Larry's NFL Insider on Hou in Wk 2), after an easy Week 5 win on the Cards (41-17 ov the Bills). As always, Larry's 1st posted NFL play of the new week is his latest Las Vegas Insider. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in on Week 6?



Seattle Seahawks

Sun, 10/12/08 - 1:00 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Side
double-dime bet216 HOU -3.0 (+100) Bodog vs 215 MIA
Analysis: If we look to the standings, there are 4 teams with 0-4 or worse records: Texans, Bengals, Lions and Rams. Well, I just don't want to be disrespectful for the other three teams, but the Texans are on a superior level. This team suffered with the Hurricane Ike earlier in the season, and I'm talking about the lack of concentration that the team should have on the football.

After the unexpected bye week, the Texans lost against the Jaguars and the Colts in two games that the Texans actually outplayed those teams. Against the Jags, they had +11 total yards than the Jags and last week they had +77 total yards than the Colts! The defeat against Indianapolis was a miracle, in a game where the Texans leaded 27-10, and in a couple of minutes they blew up the lead in a dismal loss. The good news for a bettor perspective is that they play again at home, which is a strong spot for them.

Matt Schaubb, unfortunately for the Texans, missed last game (QB Rosenfels screw up against the Colts with 2 awful turnovers) and he's back for this game. Schaubb after bad performances bounced back against the Jags and performed nicely with 3 TD's and 119.5 QB rating, and with Andre Johnson playing well, the Texans have a balance offense.


Steve Slaton has breathed new life into a dying running game, with 285 yards and a 5-yard average per carry. If Ahman Green stays healthy and runs like he did against the Colts, he'll be a nice complement to Slaton. Both are good receivers out of the backfield and the Texans have the right tool to make much damage.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins suddenly are one of the biggest surprises on the league. They slaughtered the Patriots on their own field with a huge upset win and last week they had repeated the same, beating the Chargers at home 17-10.

The key was the Wildcat formation, with which Miami took advantage of the lack of preparation of the opponents to counter this system. But the surprise factor won't last forever and the Texans should be for sure more prepared that the Chargers and Patriots.:

"They're causing a lot of problems because basically you're preparing for two offensive football teams," Texans coach Gary Kubiak said of the Dolphins. "It's not only that they're doing something different. They're running their other offense pretty darn well, too. So, all of a sudden, your preparation is doubled."


The Dolphins average 126 yards a game and a 4.3-yard average per carry. Ronnie Brown has 286 yards, a 4.9-yard average per carry and six touchdowns. He and Ricky Williams (189) are the backs in the wildcat formation and both were the key players on the 2 wins by the Dolphins.

Although the Texans are ranked in 26th rush defense with 138.8 yards allowed, they've improved against the run in the last two games, in which they excelled at, containing Jacksonville's Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, and Indianapolis' Joseph Addai, so I'm expecting a well prepared team to contain the Dolphins' running football.

Miami is overlooked in this game, the surprise factor will not be the same for this game, and we must not forget that in the last game the Chargers were in a bad spot for them: first trip to the East in a earlier game for them, here the evidences: QB Rivers completed only 46.4% of the Passes and the Chargers went 1-3 on the Red Zone Efficiency, and 0-1 on Goal To Go Efficiency.

I expect a huge effort of the Texans for this game, they need badly to win a ballgame which they already deserved, and they will face a team which comes from two upset wins, therefore a letdown is the most likely scenario. I will take the Texans in here for my first double dime pick of the season!



Sun, 10/12/08 - 1:00 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Side
dime bet206 IND -3.0 (-125) BetUS vs 205 BAL



Sun, 10/12/08 - 4:05 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Total
dime bet220 DEN / 219 JAC Over 48.0 Bodog


Sun, 10/12/08 - 1:00 PMAndre Gomes | NFL Side
dime bet210 TAM -1.5 (-110) Bodog vs 209 CAR

Sun, 10/12/08 - 1:00 PMStephen Nover | NFL Side
double-dime bet217 STL 14.0 (-110) Bodog vs 218 WAS
Analysis:
Rams +14

Analysis: St. Louis doesn't have much going, offensively or defensively, but this is an outstanding situation for the Rams. St. Louis was idle last week. Fiery Jim Haslett replaces the ineffectual Scott Linehan. His first move was to restore Marc Bulger back to the starting quarterback spot, thus greatly improving team morale.

The Redskins are in a flat spot following tremendous upset division road victories against Dallas and Philadelphia. Those games obviously took a toll on the Redskins, physically and mentally. It will be hard for them to take the winless Rams seriously.

Leonard Little is healthy for the Rams. That's huge because he's a premier pass rusher. He elevates the Rams' entire defense. Washington hasn't committed a turnover in five games. What are the odds of going a sixth straight game without an interception or fumble?

The Redskins also have key defensive injuries. Their best pass rusher, Jason Taylor, and best cornerback, Shawn Springs, missed last week's game. The Rams can keep the chains moving with stud running back Steven Jackson.

Keep in mind, too, that in the parity-filled NFL road underdogs of 10 or more points are 7-0 against the spread this season.

Sun, 10/12/08 - 1:00 PMKing Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet218 WAS / 217 STL Over 44.0 BetUS
Analysis: 1:00pm ET / ST LOUIS RAMS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

4:15pm ET / GREEN BAY PACKERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

4:15pm ET / DALLAS COWBOYS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL