id normally agree 100% with this statement......however, i think this line APPEARS to be a bargain for boston backers and red sox fans.....
consider the fact that playoff lines have been higher, phils -210 with hamels at home, lester is the redsox hamels for all intents and purposes and sick 11-1 at home......i honestly believe boston backers are getting a discount here. The rays should be +200 ish considering all the data regarding lesters starts at home.......
All that being said, i love tampa here, and like it even more when i consider i think the line is in fact about 15-20 pts too low...Not saying its off, but they could easily justify a -200 on this game
Just an alternate view to the whole ""Tampa or nothing at this price" is square talk.......
Most of the public is on Boston though, so that thinking would be incorrect. Not sure there was a "sharp" side to this game because I couldn't blame anyone for taking Lester at home here, but I definitely think the value is with Tampa Bay.
The -175 opening line is because thee public loves big name teams. If you change the Rays to the Yankees and give them the exact same players I can pretty much guarantee this line is closer to -150 and the public would be on NYY. Boston had an inflated line here simply because they are Boston and Tampa Bay is Tampa Bay.
