Hamels has an effective changeup, but can be predictable
Special to ESPN.com
<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug --> <dl class="memberalert" id="memberSincePH" style="display: block;"><dt></dt></dl> <script type="text/javascript">memberServices.MemberSince.run();</script>
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: October 15, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: NLCS GAME 5
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Hamels
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Dodgers hitters locking in on Hamels
Since mid-August, Cole Hamels has pitched 21 innings against the Dodgers with a 2.57 ERA. With his team one victory away from the World Series, Hamels will face Los Angeles again Wednesday.
Not tinkering with success, Hamels has used a similar approach in his three previous starts versus the Dodgers. The first time through the batting order he throws mostly fastballs with some changeups and occasional breaking balls. On the next pass he goes primarily to his change, and throws twice as many breaking pitches. For the third time through, Hamels mixes in more fastballs. Five of the Dodgers' core hitters -- Manny Ramirez, Russell Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp and Casey Blake -- have seen a combined 176 pitches from Hamels in the past two months, and they've started to get comfortable with his stuff and approach: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Five core Dodgers vs. Hamels</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td> </td> <td>OPS</td> <td>Changeup chase %</td> <td>Fastball miss %</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Aug. 12</td> <td>.690</td> <td>60.0</td> <td>27.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Aug. 23</td> <td>.800</td> <td>50.0</td> <td>16.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Oct. 9</td> <td>.862</td> <td>36.4</td> <td>14.3</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> If the trend continues, Los Angeles might be on the cusp of engineering a big inning against Hamels, particularly if Dodgers manager Joe Torre stacks these hitters 3-7, as he did in Game 1. Hamels commanded 67 percent of pitches for strikes and allowed just a .160 well-hit average in that outing, but will his predictable pitch mix give Dodgers hitters enough of an edge to stay alive in the NLCS? <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Billingsley
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) -->2. Phillies' lefty bats could give Billingsley another beating
In Game 2 of the NLCS, Dodgers right-hander Chad Billingsley endured a rough start. He didn't make it through the third inning, surrendering eight hits and eight runs. Unlike Hiroki Kuroda in Game 4 (who brushed back Phillies outfielder Shane Victorino), Billingsley chose to work the outside corner in his first start against Philadelphia. The strategy was not especially effective; the 24-year-old located just 12 of 26 outside fastballs (46 percent) for a strike.
The Phillies may once again prove to be a tough opponent for Billingsley, who has struggled with left-handed batters in 2008. While right-handers have been helpless against Billingsley's fastball and slider combination, lefties have smacked those offerings around: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Billingsley in 2008 (including postseason)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Pitch</td> <td>LHB OPS</td> <td>RHB OPS</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Fastball</td> <td>.841</td> <td>.718</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Slider</td> <td>.787</td> <td>.461</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> With Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, switch-hitters Jimmy Rollins and Victorino, and platoon third baseman Greg Dobbs, the Phillies have the potential to stack their lineup with five left-handed bats. Each hitter in that group, except for Rollins, has performed above average against righty heat: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="2">Vs. RHP fastballs (including postseason)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td> </td> <td>OPS</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Ryan Howard</td> <td>1.032</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Chase Utley</td> <td>1.009</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Greg Dobbs</td> <td>.882</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Shane Victorino</td> <td>.845</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Jimmy Rollins</td> <td>.796</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>MLB average</td> <td>.810</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table -->
Against right-handed sliders, Utley (.854 OPS), Rollins (.772), Howard (.741) and Dobbs (.711) are well above the .605 league average. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Blake
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) -->3. Lefty changeups give Blake fits
Ramirez may get all the attention, but Torre credits Blake with helping boost the Dodgers' offense in the second half. Blake has taken over at the hot corner, but his production against southpaws has cooled recently.
In June and July, Blake hit lefties as well as anyone in the league, but he lost his stroke in August. <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Blake vs. LHP</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td> </td> <td>June-July</td> <td>Aug.-present</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Batting average</td> <td>.442</td> <td>.238</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Slugging percentage</td> <td>.744</td> <td>.381</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit average</td> <td>.442</td> <td>.270</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Fly ball %</td> <td>68.6</td> <td>54.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table -->Blake has struggled throughout his career against left-handed changeups, and he's seen a lot more of them recently. In June and July, southpaws threw changes on 13 percent of pitches. Since August, he has seen changeups 20 percent of the time when facing lefties. He went 0-for-5 against Hamels' change in three games since August. Hamels has a first-pitch strike percentage of 78 percent against Blake and has thrown his off-speed stuff for strikes at a 79 percent clip. Hamels has been behind in the count to Blake for only two pitches, while he has been ahead for 25. In Game 1, Hamels struck out Blake looking and got him to ground out weakly twice on off-speed pitches.
Special to ESPN.com
<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug --> <dl class="memberalert" id="memberSincePH" style="display: block;"><dt></dt></dl> <script type="text/javascript">memberServices.MemberSince.run();</script>
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: October 15, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: NLCS GAME 5
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Dodgers hitters locking in on Hamels
Since mid-August, Cole Hamels has pitched 21 innings against the Dodgers with a 2.57 ERA. With his team one victory away from the World Series, Hamels will face Los Angeles again Wednesday.
Not tinkering with success, Hamels has used a similar approach in his three previous starts versus the Dodgers. The first time through the batting order he throws mostly fastballs with some changeups and occasional breaking balls. On the next pass he goes primarily to his change, and throws twice as many breaking pitches. For the third time through, Hamels mixes in more fastballs. Five of the Dodgers' core hitters -- Manny Ramirez, Russell Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp and Casey Blake -- have seen a combined 176 pitches from Hamels in the past two months, and they've started to get comfortable with his stuff and approach: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Five core Dodgers vs. Hamels</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td> </td> <td>OPS</td> <td>Changeup chase %</td> <td>Fastball miss %</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Aug. 12</td> <td>.690</td> <td>60.0</td> <td>27.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Aug. 23</td> <td>.800</td> <td>50.0</td> <td>16.7</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Oct. 9</td> <td>.862</td> <td>36.4</td> <td>14.3</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> If the trend continues, Los Angeles might be on the cusp of engineering a big inning against Hamels, particularly if Dodgers manager Joe Torre stacks these hitters 3-7, as he did in Game 1. Hamels commanded 67 percent of pitches for strikes and allowed just a .160 well-hit average in that outing, but will his predictable pitch mix give Dodgers hitters enough of an edge to stay alive in the NLCS? <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) -->2. Phillies' lefty bats could give Billingsley another beating
In Game 2 of the NLCS, Dodgers right-hander Chad Billingsley endured a rough start. He didn't make it through the third inning, surrendering eight hits and eight runs. Unlike Hiroki Kuroda in Game 4 (who brushed back Phillies outfielder Shane Victorino), Billingsley chose to work the outside corner in his first start against Philadelphia. The strategy was not especially effective; the 24-year-old located just 12 of 26 outside fastballs (46 percent) for a strike.
The Phillies may once again prove to be a tough opponent for Billingsley, who has struggled with left-handed batters in 2008. While right-handers have been helpless against Billingsley's fastball and slider combination, lefties have smacked those offerings around: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Billingsley in 2008 (including postseason)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Pitch</td> <td>LHB OPS</td> <td>RHB OPS</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Fastball</td> <td>.841</td> <td>.718</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Slider</td> <td>.787</td> <td>.461</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> With Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, switch-hitters Jimmy Rollins and Victorino, and platoon third baseman Greg Dobbs, the Phillies have the potential to stack their lineup with five left-handed bats. Each hitter in that group, except for Rollins, has performed above average against righty heat: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="2">Vs. RHP fastballs (including postseason)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td> </td> <td>OPS</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Ryan Howard</td> <td>1.032</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Chase Utley</td> <td>1.009</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Greg Dobbs</td> <td>.882</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Shane Victorino</td> <td>.845</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Jimmy Rollins</td> <td>.796</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>MLB average</td> <td>.810</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table -->
Against right-handed sliders, Utley (.854 OPS), Rollins (.772), Howard (.741) and Dobbs (.711) are well above the .605 league average. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) -->3. Lefty changeups give Blake fits
Ramirez may get all the attention, but Torre credits Blake with helping boost the Dodgers' offense in the second half. Blake has taken over at the hot corner, but his production against southpaws has cooled recently.
In June and July, Blake hit lefties as well as anyone in the league, but he lost his stroke in August. <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Blake vs. LHP</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td> </td> <td>June-July</td> <td>Aug.-present</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Batting average</td> <td>.442</td> <td>.238</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Slugging percentage</td> <td>.744</td> <td>.381</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit average</td> <td>.442</td> <td>.270</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Fly ball %</td> <td>68.6</td> <td>54.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table -->Blake has struggled throughout his career against left-handed changeups, and he's seen a lot more of them recently. In June and July, southpaws threw changes on 13 percent of pitches. Since August, he has seen changeups 20 percent of the time when facing lefties. He went 0-for-5 against Hamels' change in three games since August. Hamels has a first-pitch strike percentage of 78 percent against Blake and has thrown his off-speed stuff for strikes at a 79 percent clip. Hamels has been behind in the count to Blake for only two pitches, while he has been ahead for 25. In Game 1, Hamels struck out Blake looking and got him to ground out weakly twice on off-speed pitches.
