Matsuzaka was used hard in the series opener, throwing 115 pitches and facing 29 batters as a 110 dog in Tampa. However, this in no reason to play against him, as the BoSox are 24-3 when he threw 100+ pitches in his last outing. If the Red Sox were not more than a 160 favorite in his last start, they this trend tightens to 12-0 with an average margin of +4.8 runs per game.
With the Rays 0-8 when they are off two wins in which they never trailed - as long as they weren't the favorite in both games.
