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And so it goes......
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10/16/2008

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]IT'S ALL PART OF THE GAME[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We're at an interesting stage in the evolution of sports wagering. But, sometimes I wonder if it's just a circle, rather than evolution. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You may not have heard about this in other parts of the country. Out here in Nevada, we're seeing a lot of what you would call "poker money" hitting the sportsbooks. About 20 years ago, a group of poker players were serious sports bettors who moved the line. Doyle Brunson, the late Chip Reese, and Dewey Tomko were the most prominent. Their bets were called the "poker plays" or even "pokers" in local slang. People would ask "who are the pokers betting." [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The recent poker boom has created new poker millionaires. And, the guys who were in on the ground floor of creating poker sites are multi-millionaires from that alone. I won't name them here because they haven't publicly named themselves (Brunson, Reese, and Tomko eventually went public and sold their picks for a period of time). But, stories are starting to spread of big action from guys you've probably seen on TV. That's going to be part of the market in the near future. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Probably the greatest compliment you can give a big player in Nevada, Reno, or offshore is that he "moves the lines." Sharp money moves the line. Maximum limit bets from known professionals will have an immediate impact on the number. If there's a guy who knows what he's talking about, but doesn't bet big...he won't get much respect. If Albert Einstein came back to life and went 10-0 on small bets this weekend, nobody would pay attention to him. A guy who carries himself like a sharp that goes 6-4 on big bets will get respected, even if he's picking off astrology or uniform colors. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The poker players from 20 years ago established their credentials through success. They moved the numbers. Stories are still told to this day about their biggest exploits. The new wave isn't getting that kind of respect yet. You'll often hear complaints from known sharps out here about how hard it is to get down what they want on a game. Every sportsbook has a limit. Sharps aren't allowed to exceed that limit. Guys who aren't perceived as sharp ARE allowed to do that though. A big casino player from overseas is allowed to bet big. Any whales who lose regularly in blackjack or roulette will get the go-ahead. Thus far, the poker players have been allowed to as well (you'd be surprised how many poker players are down for life because they can't stay away from the craps table, or Chinese poker). If they start winning, they may have trouble pulling that off. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]People always wondered whether the poker guys from 20 years ago were betting their own picks, or somebody else's. That would be a creative way for sharps to use beards to get their picks in at first. If your action is discouraged, find a high roller with a reputation as a gambler to place those bets for you. Winning draws attention to itself though. So, even if that were true, it wouldn't work for long. The poker players would have to hire their own beards! The reputation of Brunson et al for finding an edge is such that they were probably using a combination of elements to determine who they bet. They were undoubtedly very successful. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Will the new wave of poker money find success? Time will tell. Bad news travels faster than good news in this area. It's known on the street that a big play on the Lakers to win the series over the Celtics went down...as did a big bet on Oklahoma over Texas this past weekend. High rollers keep firing. They may hit something eventually. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]From the sportsbooks perspective, it's all part of the game. Who do you let bet big, and who do you keep at limits? Whose action do you encourage? Whose action do you suggest would be better spent elsewhere (I've mentioned in the past that some books treat sharp sports bettors the way casinos treat card counters)? Do you move the line off an early sharp bet? Or, do you assume that it's a head fake and the money is going to come back over the top on the other side later in the week? It was that way when the game first started a few decades ago. It was that way when the poker guys were playing the game in their heyday. It's that way now. It's all part of the game.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What does this mean to you? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Well, if you're reading this you're likely to be a relative outsider to the process. No offense, but it's a relatively small circle of big bettors we're talking about. Most everyone is on the outside of that looking in. I'd suggest the following:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]*Do your own handicapping. Don't worry about what everyone else is doing. Do your research. If you see a number you like, bet it. If not, pass the game. Worrying about what everyone else is doing just distracts you from finding your own insights about teams, coaches, and key players.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you hear somebody bet big on something, don't assume they know more than you do. There are some very rich people in Nevada who are rich despite the fact that they bet poorly on sports...not because they beat the oddsmakers. A big bet from a "gambler" isn't the same thing as a big bet from a sharp. And, besides, what sounds big to you might be chump change to them. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Unless you're a high roller, sportsbook limits aren't going to matter to you. Map out a plan based on your bankroll and tolerance for risk...then develop your own limits for high and low bets. I've seen too many people lose site of the fundamentals because they want to act or feel like a high roller. It just makes them go broke faster. There are no sure things in life, don't bet like there are. [/FONT]
 

And so it goes......
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
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My guess the "new poker" money comes from Phil Ivey, Eric Lindgren, Bill Edler etc..
 

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