FROM MY FRIEND NICK
10/22/2008
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
NEVADA BOOKS ROOTING FOR PHILLIES IN THE WORLD SERIES
You’ve probably heard the stories about how much Las Vegas and Reno sportsbooks stand to lose if the Tampa Bay Rays win the World Series that starts tonight. A Las Vegas newspaper estimated that it might be as much as a million dollars!
I don’t know if that’s right. It’s hard getting a straight answer from sportsbook operators sometimes. They tend to cry even when they’re making a little money. There’s definitely some exposure here though. It varies from place to place depending on the prices that were offered originally, and on how quickly the stored lowered the odds once it was clear that Tampa Bay was very good.
I can tell you that some known sharps are in position to win very big if the Rays take the crown. And, they’ll be taking that money from somebody!
I’ve also heard a lot of talk about the series price. Tampa Bay opened at -130 or -135 depending on the place. Some guys thought that was too high, and the books were just begging for Philadelphia money to help balance the action from the futures. But, other berttors are insisting it’s too low. I’ve been seeing the price go up since open, as both sharps (professional wagerers) and squares (the general public) have been betting more on Tampa than Philadelphia. The public likes riding the hot story…and that’s definitely the Rays right now.
It’s funny, I’ve been hearing some sharps talk about the series. And, it breaks down to the same factions we see during interleague play:
*Many believe the series is a coin flip, and they can’t believe they’re getting such a good return on the Phils when Cole Hamels will be in position to impact the series multiple times. These are the same guys though who kept insisting the NL was even with the AL during interleague play, and they’ve been getting spanked the last few years. Some “old school” guys are still tied to the perception that the National League is the better league even though that’s obviously not true any more.
*Others thought Tampa Bay -130 was a steal given they were the best team in the best league…and that they won the toughest division in baseball during the regular season. If you didn’t know the names of the teams…and you were just trying to put a price on “the best team in the best league” enjoying home field advantage against a “generic” division winner from the inferior league…would you make the number as small as -130 or -135 in the series?
So, even though this won’t have the buzz of a Cubs/Red Sox series…or Dodgers/Red Sox…or anything involving a New York team. There have been some very interesting discussions about how to go about betting the series.
THE PHILADELPHIA SIDE
*Cole Hamels is fantastic. He’ll pitch the opener tonight. Depending on how things go in the series, he could come back on short rest Sunday Night in Game Four…then again if needed on short rest in Game Seven. That’s always a dicey strategy. And, you can’t assume he would maintain his form all the way through. Still, if he’s going to give you better innings than whoever else would have been going, you’re in the ball game.
*Philadelphia has nothing to lose, and many underdogs rise to the occasion when there isn’t any pressure. Arguably, that’s how the Phillies got here. They won a division the Mets were supposed to win. They won a league that the Dodgers were supposed to win once Manny Ramirez was rocketing balls all over the field. St. Louis of the National League won over Detroit won in a similar role not too long ago.
*Philadelphia was the best road team in the National League by a mile. That served them well in the playoffs…and is an essential in any series where you have to win at least once away from home to get the championship.
*Philadelphia closed the season playing its best ball of the year, going 14-6 over the last 20 games and 19-11 over the last 30. That’s not counting 7-2 in the playoffs.
THE TAMPA BAY SIDE
*Tampa Bay won 97 games in the regular season despite playing the toughest schedule of any good team in baseball. More than 100 games came against teams with a winning record. The AL is much superior to the NL this year, so we’re talking about a true superpower here. Note that Philadelphia was just 4-11 in interleague play, while Tampa Bay was 12-6.
*Tampa Bay was 57-24 at home this year, and had an even better win percentage in front of big crowds. The team is well suited to the dome, and the pitching staff in particular is well suited to the dim indoor lighting. Philadelphia plays in a bandbox park that could prove inviting to all the guys on TB who were hitting home runs at Fenway Park in Boston. Who’s going to have an easier time adjusting to the other guy’s field? Probably Tampa Bay, and they have home field advantage anyway.
*Tampa Bay doesn’t have a Cole Hamels, but they have a solid starting rotation across the board. They will be in virtual coin flip positions with Hamels when he goes, and have clear edges the rest of the other time.
*Tampa Bay has a variety of offensive weapons who can run a sequential offense or take you deep. Philadelphia has some bats too. But, Tampa Bay’s bats really came on strong in the Boston series considering the caliber of pitching they were facing. Even if those bats struggle against Hamels, will they struggle against Myers, Moyer, or Blanton? What about the vulnerable middle relief? Philly could be overmatched unless Hamels can hand off to Brad Lidge three different times.
*Tampa Bay survived its drama with Boston. At the point where the youngsters could have choked away the ALCS, they rose to the occasion and won Game Seven. They’re young…but now they’re battle tested in October pressure. Ironically, Philadelphia hasn’t faced much October pressure because they won so easily.
I love baseball. It’s my favorite betting sport when I’m on that side of the counter. I’m very much looking forward to this series. I hope you are too. If you’d like to win along with me on a game-by-game basis, sign up for my personal service by calling 1-877-822-2276. You can also purchase selections online with your credit card. I think the various approaches to betting this series in Las Vegas and Reno will create game-by-game lines that are a bit out of step with reality. You’ve got square money doing one thing. You’ve got futures hedgers doing another. You’ve got old school guys betting one way, and the younger guys betting another. Sometimes that can cause a line to “center” about 20-25 cents away from where it should be. The guys who are wrong don’t know why they’re wrong! The action settles where it shouldn’t. Bettors who really follow baseball closely will be there to take advantage.
10/22/2008
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
NEVADA BOOKS ROOTING FOR PHILLIES IN THE WORLD SERIES
You’ve probably heard the stories about how much Las Vegas and Reno sportsbooks stand to lose if the Tampa Bay Rays win the World Series that starts tonight. A Las Vegas newspaper estimated that it might be as much as a million dollars!
I don’t know if that’s right. It’s hard getting a straight answer from sportsbook operators sometimes. They tend to cry even when they’re making a little money. There’s definitely some exposure here though. It varies from place to place depending on the prices that were offered originally, and on how quickly the stored lowered the odds once it was clear that Tampa Bay was very good.
I can tell you that some known sharps are in position to win very big if the Rays take the crown. And, they’ll be taking that money from somebody!
I’ve also heard a lot of talk about the series price. Tampa Bay opened at -130 or -135 depending on the place. Some guys thought that was too high, and the books were just begging for Philadelphia money to help balance the action from the futures. But, other berttors are insisting it’s too low. I’ve been seeing the price go up since open, as both sharps (professional wagerers) and squares (the general public) have been betting more on Tampa than Philadelphia. The public likes riding the hot story…and that’s definitely the Rays right now.
It’s funny, I’ve been hearing some sharps talk about the series. And, it breaks down to the same factions we see during interleague play:
*Many believe the series is a coin flip, and they can’t believe they’re getting such a good return on the Phils when Cole Hamels will be in position to impact the series multiple times. These are the same guys though who kept insisting the NL was even with the AL during interleague play, and they’ve been getting spanked the last few years. Some “old school” guys are still tied to the perception that the National League is the better league even though that’s obviously not true any more.
*Others thought Tampa Bay -130 was a steal given they were the best team in the best league…and that they won the toughest division in baseball during the regular season. If you didn’t know the names of the teams…and you were just trying to put a price on “the best team in the best league” enjoying home field advantage against a “generic” division winner from the inferior league…would you make the number as small as -130 or -135 in the series?
So, even though this won’t have the buzz of a Cubs/Red Sox series…or Dodgers/Red Sox…or anything involving a New York team. There have been some very interesting discussions about how to go about betting the series.
THE PHILADELPHIA SIDE
*Cole Hamels is fantastic. He’ll pitch the opener tonight. Depending on how things go in the series, he could come back on short rest Sunday Night in Game Four…then again if needed on short rest in Game Seven. That’s always a dicey strategy. And, you can’t assume he would maintain his form all the way through. Still, if he’s going to give you better innings than whoever else would have been going, you’re in the ball game.
*Philadelphia has nothing to lose, and many underdogs rise to the occasion when there isn’t any pressure. Arguably, that’s how the Phillies got here. They won a division the Mets were supposed to win. They won a league that the Dodgers were supposed to win once Manny Ramirez was rocketing balls all over the field. St. Louis of the National League won over Detroit won in a similar role not too long ago.
*Philadelphia was the best road team in the National League by a mile. That served them well in the playoffs…and is an essential in any series where you have to win at least once away from home to get the championship.
*Philadelphia closed the season playing its best ball of the year, going 14-6 over the last 20 games and 19-11 over the last 30. That’s not counting 7-2 in the playoffs.
THE TAMPA BAY SIDE
*Tampa Bay won 97 games in the regular season despite playing the toughest schedule of any good team in baseball. More than 100 games came against teams with a winning record. The AL is much superior to the NL this year, so we’re talking about a true superpower here. Note that Philadelphia was just 4-11 in interleague play, while Tampa Bay was 12-6.
*Tampa Bay was 57-24 at home this year, and had an even better win percentage in front of big crowds. The team is well suited to the dome, and the pitching staff in particular is well suited to the dim indoor lighting. Philadelphia plays in a bandbox park that could prove inviting to all the guys on TB who were hitting home runs at Fenway Park in Boston. Who’s going to have an easier time adjusting to the other guy’s field? Probably Tampa Bay, and they have home field advantage anyway.
*Tampa Bay doesn’t have a Cole Hamels, but they have a solid starting rotation across the board. They will be in virtual coin flip positions with Hamels when he goes, and have clear edges the rest of the other time.
*Tampa Bay has a variety of offensive weapons who can run a sequential offense or take you deep. Philadelphia has some bats too. But, Tampa Bay’s bats really came on strong in the Boston series considering the caliber of pitching they were facing. Even if those bats struggle against Hamels, will they struggle against Myers, Moyer, or Blanton? What about the vulnerable middle relief? Philly could be overmatched unless Hamels can hand off to Brad Lidge three different times.
*Tampa Bay survived its drama with Boston. At the point where the youngsters could have choked away the ALCS, they rose to the occasion and won Game Seven. They’re young…but now they’re battle tested in October pressure. Ironically, Philadelphia hasn’t faced much October pressure because they won so easily.
I love baseball. It’s my favorite betting sport when I’m on that side of the counter. I’m very much looking forward to this series. I hope you are too. If you’d like to win along with me on a game-by-game basis, sign up for my personal service by calling 1-877-822-2276. You can also purchase selections online with your credit card. I think the various approaches to betting this series in Las Vegas and Reno will create game-by-game lines that are a bit out of step with reality. You’ve got square money doing one thing. You’ve got futures hedgers doing another. You’ve got old school guys betting one way, and the younger guys betting another. Sometimes that can cause a line to “center” about 20-25 cents away from where it should be. The guys who are wrong don’t know why they’re wrong! The action settles where it shouldn’t. Bettors who really follow baseball closely will be there to take advantage.
