Service Plays Sunday 10/26/08

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Scott Ferrall

NFL Free Picks SAN FRANCISCO -5 to Seattle--The Seahawks are 7-16-1 last 24 games on the road ATS. Seattle has hit the OVER in 4 of last 5 on road. OVER 41

CINCY +9 from Houston--I don't think the Texans can beat anyone by that number. Take the OVER 44.5--Houston over in all 6 games this year

WASHINGTON -7.5 to Detroit--The Lions don't cover against anybody. Detorit 1-5 last 6 ATS at Ford Field and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall ATS

CAROLINA -4 to Arizona--The Panthers have covered the last four meetings in series and are tough at home. Take the OVER 43.5--Cards are 11-4 in OVERS in last 15 games

BALTIMORE -7 to Oakland--You've got to jump on this one. The Ravens won't let the Raiders do anything offensively

WILD BILL

Ravens -6 1/2 (5 units)
Saints +3 1/2 (5 units)
Bills -1 1/2 (5 units)
Over 45 Falcons-Eagles (5 units)
Redskins -8 (5 units)
Browns +6 1/2 (5 units)
Giants +2 1/2 (5 units)
Over 43 Steelers-Giants (5 units)
Bengals +9 1/2 (5 units)
Over 44 1/2 Bengals-Houston (5 units)
Colts +3 1/2 (5 units)
Over 42 1/2 Colts-Titans (5 units)

Armvin Sports nfl

10/26/2008 san diego -3

10/26/2008 atlanta 9

Larry Ness' Week 8 Las Vegas Insider (5-1)

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts combined on yet another Las Vegas Insider win in Wk 7 as buf beat SD (now 5-1 or 83.3% ATS in NFL '08). Larry's NFL Insider is the 1st play he posts each week (Weds) after he and his longtime contacts "break down" the NFL 'card' on Tuesday. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in on Week 8?


Dallas Cowboys

JEFFERSONSPORTS EARLY RELEASE
TULSA-23 (RELEASED MON NIGHT)
38-18-1 last 57 football 69%
hit 21 of last 26 NFL

NHL 5-4
CFL 4-1

Hondo

October 24, 2008
Hondo wrested sole control of first place in the standings last week with a solid but unspectacular 8-6 record that relegated Serby and Miss Charleen to the rear-view mirror. So long, kids!

Giants over Steelers: Big Blue get a slight edge because they not only have Earth, Wind and Fire at running back, but they also have Giant Pain In The Butt at wide receiver. Plaxico's part of the new breed of wideouts who not only can catch bombs from the QB, but also throw "F" bombs at the coach.

New York Jets over Chiefs: If the Great Mangenie seemed unfazed by Favre's info-sharing with the Lions, it's only because his NFL weening came at the breast of Bill Belichick, the mother of all cheaters.

Ravens over Raiders: Mike Lupica has renamed his column "Mondays With Mike." Don't be fooled, it's still the same old "Reflections From The Recliner," a weekly, tortuous, knee-jerk gush about the 'Crats.

Saints over Chargers: The Police Athletic League is honoring Joba ChamberlainJoba Chamberlain Dec. 16 at the Grand Hyatt. For those attending, he'll be the guy at the dais drinking from a container wrapped in a paper bag.

Dolphins over Bills: Hillary hit the campaign trail this week for Al Franken and credited him for "taking on the vast right-wing conspiracy before other people even admitted it existed." Nobody took it on before the Pantsuit, who went on The Today Show in 1998 to blame the Bill-Monica scandal on the vast right-wing conspiracy. Sadly, that turned out to part of Bill's vast West-Wing conspiracy.

Bucs over Cowboys: Basic tenets of handicapping dictate that if Romo's a no-go, the 'Boys are a no-play. See how easy this can be when you have Hondo The Handicapper to guide you?

Falcons over Eagles: Joe Biden, in predicting that Obama would face an international crisis within six months of being elected, told everyone to "gird your loins." It's "not going to be an easy ride." Voters must find it comforting to know they soon may have a VP who's looking out for their loins.

Rams over Patriots: Campaign catch phrases have ranged from "Drill, Baby, Drill" to "Jobs, Baby, Jobs." Now, with McCain's poll numbers trending lower than Joe The Plumber's pants and a Barack presidency seemingly looming, it might be time for a new one: "Gird, Baby, Gird."

Panthers over Cardinals: A Michigan man was arrested this week for receiving "sexual favors" from a vacuum at a car wash. Yikes! Now there's a guy who should be girding his loins.

Lions over Redskins: The car wash freak's lawyer is insisting his client get a jury of his peers, which likely would include Peter "Petey Perv" Cook, Duchovny, CNN's Richard "The 'Nad Roper" Quest, Larry "The Toe Tapper" Craig, as well as several assorted, everyday, run-of-the-mill, subway flasherbators.

Browns over Jaguars: According to a recent study, drinking coffee can shrink the size of women's breasts. All together now, men: Ban coffee now!

49ers over Seahawks: It's The Stink vs. Stench Bowl '08. The New Coach Theory gives Stink the edge.

Bengals over Texans: Bengwad fans reportedly have started wearing bags over their heads. One question: What took so long? One suggestion: Wear two in case the first one falls off.

Titans over Colts: Viewers reportedly are turning away from the nightly news by the hundreds of thousands at all three networks compared to last year. Evidently, the public is becoming increasingly repulsed by the Anchors For Obama News Cabal.

BEST BETS: Bucs, Bengals, 49ers.

Doug Williams

Bucs (+2) OVER Dallas (-2) -- This will officially be the week that Dallas implodes. Go with the "underdog" Bucs against a Romo-less Cowboys team.

Eagles (-9) OVER Atlanta (+9) -- Donovan Mcnabb routinely plays out of his mind after bye weeks -- factor in a returning Kevin Curtis, a rested and healthy Brian Westbrook and DeSean Jackson...that's a lot of offensive fire power. Their D is also healthy, and looking to eat up Matt Ryan.

Pats (-7.5) Over Rams (+7.5) -- Don't let the Rams fool you. They aren't good - Steven Jackson has just had some monster games. I like the Pats to explode offensively two weeks in a row. Moss hasn't quit yet, and he'll walk over this weak secondary.

Panthers (-4) OVER Arizona Cardinals (+4) -- The Panthers have given up 16 points and scored 80 at home in last 3 games. Julius Peppers is freakin' back! I like the Cards, but I don't think they'll hang for an entire game with with a surprisingly scary Carolina team.
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NFL Week 7 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (12-8 = 60.0%)

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

One of our offshore contacts had this game circled early in the week. Early Sharp money on Miami pushed the line from Miami +2 down to Miami +1 -- even with the Public all over first-place Buffalo. With almost 85% of all bets coming in on Buffalo, you would think someone had Monday's sports page already!

In addition to "Betting Against the Public" and taking the same side as "Sharps" -- we like this game for a variety of other reasons:

Miami is a home dog -- and is definitely a "live dog" in a game that is expected to be close.

This is a game between two divisional rivals.

We'll sell Buffalo at a "high" after last week's convincing 23-14 win over a solid San Diego squad.

We'll buy Miami at a "low" after a 2 touchdown loss to Baltimore.

Miami Dolphins +1.5 (SIA)

St. Louis Rams vs New England

The Public is jumping on the Patriot bandwagon again -- after their impressive performance on Monday Night Football (MNF) against Denver. More than 3 out of every 4 bets are coming in on the Patriots. The line opened at NE -7 and -7.5 -- but the steady pounding of bets on the Pats has started to make the line rise.

We'll "Bet Against the Public" and sell the Pats at a recent high after their big MNF win. The Rams should have some renewed confidence after their win over Dallas last week. The line for this game is rising, so shop around for the best line you can get. Currently, St. Louis +7.5 at "plus vig" is widely available with some +9's around but at "expensive negative vig."

St. Louis Rams +7.5

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

This is a classic "new kid in town" versus the "old gunslinger" match-up. Tennessee brings the league's only undefeated record into this game: a sparkling 6-0 record. Indy has been struggling and limps in at 3-3. The Colts have been showing signs of their championship form, but they lost again last week. The Public is leaning to the Titans, with about 60% of the bets taking Tennessee.

The line opened at Tennessee -3.5 but Public money has moved the line to the key number of Tenn -4. We like this extra value in a key divisional game. How often do you get a team like the Colts plus more than a field goal? We'll take the points on the "old gunslinger" and buy an underperforming Indy team that suffered a big loss last week versus Green Bay.

Indianapolis Colts +4

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (12-8 = 60.0%)

Miami Dolphins +1.5 (SIA)
St. Louis Rams +7.5
Indianapolis Colts +4
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Chip Chirimbes

AFC GOY Miami

Wunderdog

Game: Arizona at Carolina (Sunday 10/26 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Carolina -3.5 (-110)
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Sun, 10/26/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
triple-dime bet210 PHI -9.0 (-110) BetUS vs 209 ATL
Analysis:
*****5 UNIT NFL GAME OF THE YEAR*****



When I give out a Game of the Year selection, it's always on a team I feel is in the best spot of any throughout the season. As I look over the remainder of the NFL schedule, I don't see a situation that will benefit a team more than the one the Philadelphia Eagles are in this Sunday.



First, let's start with coming off the bye week. Some coaches just know to prepare their team to play after a bye and no one does it any better than Andy Reid. The Eagles are a perfect 9-0 under Reid coming off a bye week. I also like to look at how a team goes into their bye and the Eagles are coming off a strong performance in San Fran. Also, I've been told by Eagles Insiders that even though the team is currently in last place in the NFC East, they believe with the Cowboys having problems and the Redskins still employing a young quarterback that they they are the best team in the division.



Another reason to like the Eagles here is because they are getting healthy at the right time. Brian Westbrook and WR Kevin Curtis will both be playing on Sunday, giving Donovan McNabb and the Eagles their top two offensive weapons on the field together for the first time all year. Also, receiver Reggie Brown is finally back to full strength as well, making this the first time McNabb has had a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal.



Finally, I think the Eagles have the perfect opponent coming off the bye week. The Falcons are a nice surprise but they are a team you bet at home and fade on the road. They did beat a depleted Packers team on the road but were handled easily by both the Bucs and Panthers. Matt Ryan's numbers are significantly worse away from home. Ryan has a 59.2 passer rating on the road compared with a 121.9 mark at home. And now defensive coordinator Jim Johnson has had an extra week to come up with a bevy of new blitz packages to throw at the rookie. Here is what safety Brian Dawkins had to say about this week's gameplan:



"We're not going to stop. You may get us every once in a while, but we're not going to stop, so you have to be able to maintain that same cool that you were on that one play that you got us on the other 20 blitzes that we throw at you."



I expect the Eagles defense to harass the young Ryan and force him into turning the ball over. Remember one thing: Asante Samuel, along with Champ Bailey, is the best CB in the NFL when it comes to jumping a route. I expect him to have a big game against Ryan.



Atlanta has been outgained in all 3 road games 373-291 with Ryan passing for 170 ypg (50%). They now face an Eagles defense that is 2nd in the NFL with 21 sacks & allowing just 91 (3.5) ypg rushing. In other words, the Falcons will be forced to pass and Philly is going to feed off that and eat Ryan alive.



So, those are the reasons why I made this my NFL Game of the Year. I expect something like a 37-6 Eagles win, so hopefully this one will be over early and you can all sit back and relax

Sun, 10/26/08 - 4:05 PMStephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet228 HOU / 227 CIN Over 44.5 Bodog
Analysis:
Bengas-Texans Over 44.5

Analysis: The Houston Texans just may be the best 'over' team in the NFL with a potent offense and weak defense. This has resulted in the Texans going 'over' eight straight times, including all six games this season.

The 'over' has cashed 70 percent of the time during the past 17 instances in which the Texans played a team with a winning percentage of less than 33 percent.

The Texans are fifth in offense. They've scored at least 27 points in each of their past four games and should have no problem reaching that figure against a Bengals defense now missing one of their better players, linebacker Keith Rivers.

Andre Johnson has played better than any other wide receiver during the past two weeks and the Texans now have a solid 1-2 running punch with a healthy veteran Ahman Green joining good-looking rookie Steve Slaton.

Look for Bengals second-string quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to have his best game since replacing an injured Carson Palmer. He's had several starts and his more comfortable with his main wide receiving targets, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh.

Houston is yielding 29.8 points per game. Only the Lions are giving up more. The Bengals have the wideouts to take advantage of the Texans' porous secondary.

Sun, 10/26/08 - 4:05 PMKing Creole | NFL Side
triple-dime bet227 CIN 9.5 (-110) Bodog vs 228 HOU
Analysis: 3*** UNDERDOG Game of the Month on: CINCINNATI BENGALS plus the points vs the houston texans / 4:15pm ET

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 26, 2008
$30.00 Guaranteed: Jack Clayton nailed his Thursday night Game of the Year on West Virginia and steps up Sunday with a Rare 6-Star Pro Game of the Month! This one won't be close on the scoreboard or ATS. Find out this blockbuster rout and pay ONLY when it wins! 10/25/2008

5* Redskins at Lions: I'm not concerned with the Redskins not putting up a ton of points the last two weeks. There is nothing wrong with this offense. The Redskins (5-2 SU/4-3 ATS) are playing great for new coach Jim Zorn. This is an uptempo West Coast attack and quarterback Jason Campbell has yet to throw a pick! They have outstanding balance with RB Clinton Portis (fourth straight 100-yard performances), plus WRs Santana Moss and Antawn Randle-El. They feature many three-and four-receiver sets and will tear up this terrible Detroit defense. The Lions (0-6 SU/2-4 ATS) may have covered the last two games, losing 12-10 to the Vikings and 28-21 at Houston, but don't be fooled. They were outgained by a wide margin to the conservative Vikings and allowed 404 yards, including 150 rushing, last week to struggling Houston. Houston held the ball for a franchise-record 40:04. This defense is awful, last in the NFL. The offense has turned to Dan Orvolsky (31 points total in his two starts) and recently traded away its best player, WR Roy Williams. The Lions have been outscored 54-0 in the opening quarter this season! Play the Redskins.

brady1983 said:

Larry Ness' Week 8 Las Vegas Insider (5-1)

Larry and his "unmatched" contacts combined on yet another Las Vegas Insider win in Wk 7 as buf beat SD (now 5-1 or 83.3% ATS in NFL '08). Larry's NFL Insider is the 1st play he posts each week (Weds) after he and his longtime contacts "break down" the NFL 'card' on Tuesday. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in on Week 8?


Dallas Cowboys

Click to expand...

Larry Ness' 20* Total of the Month (15-6 s/'03!)

Larry plays very few NFL totals but his Total of the Month plays have been 'MONEY' over the last five seaons. He is 15-6 (that's 71.4 percent!) with his NFL Total of the Month plays since the start of the '03 season. Looking for a game which could be 'over' by halftime? Then look no further than Larry's 20* NFL Total of the Month (Oct)! Look out below.

SD/NO OVER


Larry Ness' 20* NFC Game of the Year


Larry was "right on the money" with his 20* AFC/NFC Game of the Year in Wk 5, as the Pats (-3) beat the 49ers, 30-21. This 25-year vet now has his sights set on a Wk 8 game which he's designating as his 20* NFC Game of the Year. You can't afford to get "caught on the sidelines" for this one, as this "no-doubt, double-digit ATS winner" is just a click away!

Philadelphia Eagles

Allen Eastman

$800.00-105 #207 Tampa Bay (+2.5) over Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)

$2000.00 -105 #203 Kansas City (+14) over New York Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)

$2100.00 -110 ‘Under’ 43.5 St. Louis at New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 26)

$2200.00-105 #226 Tennessee (-4) over Indianapolis (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27)

$800.00 -103 #209 Atlanta (+9.5) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27)

Sports Wise Guys

5 Star Picks (Week 8)

Cincinnati +10 over Houston
NY Giants +2.5 over Pittsburgh
Buffalo -1.5 over Miami
Pittsburgh/NY Giants over 42.5
San Francisco/Seattle over 41.5

5-Star NFL Picks Season Total: 19-15-1 (55.7%)

Vegas Vic


Nine-point spread might be too much for Eagles to handle

Falcons (+9) over EAGLES
Has this town ever seen a better day? The Phils gunning for a victory in Game 4 of the World Series while the Eagles look to get back over the .500 mark. And just to add a little spice, Atlanta's rookie QB Matt Ryan is representing Penn Charter. Wow! Pinch me. Don't wanna be a black cloud in the middle of all this, but we have to take a light lean to the Falcons as a big, fat nine-point underdog. Sure the Birds laid a 40 spot on San Francisco before the bye week, but, the key words in that sentence are "San Francisco." Leading up to that game, it was a 15-6 win over Pitt, a 24-20 loss at Chicago and a 23-17 setback against Washington. The Falcs are off to a 4-2 start under first-year coach Mike Smith, straight up and against the spread. And if you're wondering, yeah, I know the Eagles are 9-0 under Andy Reid coming off the bye, which is why this ain't gonna be an upset.


Seahawks (+5) over 49ERS
What has San Francisco done to rate as a 5-point favorite over anyone? As Edwin Starr would say, "absolutely nothing," so we go with the Seahawks as our Best Bet. We do expect the Niners to be pumped up with Mike Singletary stepping in for the fired Mike Nolan, but they are on an 0-4 spread run, and have covered only four of the last 14 at home. This is also, even though he will not admit it, an audition for Mike Holmgren. Every time he gets in front of a microphone or a pen, Holmgren, who is in his final year as the head man with Seattle, insists, he's gonna take off in 2009. Yeah, right. Why the skepticism? Holmgren is a Bay area native, a former high school coach in San Francisco, and a former assistant with the 49ers. Even though the Seahawks talent level is down, and Matt Hasselbeck is out, we see this game going back and forth until a late field goal wins it. Who wins? We couldn't care less! As long as it's by three.


Chargers (-3) over Saints
Talk about a road game, this one will be played at London's Wembley Stadium. And since we are talking about a road game, thought you would be interested to know that New Orleans is 0-3 away from home this season, and will be without the game-breaking talents of Reggie Bush. huge blow for the Saints, which will allow lightning, in the form of San Diego, to strike in London town.


Colts (+4) over TITANS
Every time we count Peyton Manning out, talk about him losing a few inches off his fastball, he seems to come back with an outstanding performance. Indy was 2-2 going into the Baltimore game, coming off a tight win against the lowly Texans, and the Colts crushed the Ravens, 31-3. Obviously, we're not expecting them to squash the 6-0 club from Tennessee, but we are expecting the Horseshoes to cover as an underdog, a spot where they've covered four of the last six.


STEELERS (-3) over Giants
When QB Ben Roethlisberger injured his shoulder and RB Willie Parker went down, we totally thought that this Pittsburgh club would be in trouble. Well, we made a mistake. (See, big boys can admit to mistakes.) The Steelers are 5-1, Big Ben looks just fine, hitting on 17 of 28 for 216 yards with two touchdowns and no picks Sunday, while RB Mewelde Moore filled Parker's cleats with 120 rushing yards and two TDs.


Rams (+7) over PATRIOTS
Not sure what kinda magic Jim Haslett is using, but since taking over after the bye week, St. Louis has upset Washington and Dallas. The Rams ain't gonna get the W, but will keep the final margin inside a touchdown.


LIONS (+7) over Redskins
Lets applaud Jim Zorn for leading Washington to a 4-2 record, but the 'Skins have not won a game by more than seven points yet.


Raiders (+7) over RAVENS
Since Baltimore has covered only seven of its last 23, plus-7 looks like a nice fit for the Silver & Black.


JETS (-13) over Chiefs
Larry Johnson was benched, again, and so was any chance of Kansas City covering this double-digit spread.


DOLPHINS (+1) over Bills
Miami played three solid games in a row, then came up with a clunker against Baltimore Sunday. Look for the Fish to unclunk this week.


COWBOYS (-2) over Buccaneers
Not thrilled with Brad Johnson, but can't back a Tampa team that has an 11-24 road record since 2004.


PANTHERS (-4) over Cardinals
Carolina is 4-0 at home this season, and is riding a 6-0 spread streak in Charlotte.


Browns (+7) over JAGUARS
Cleveland does one thing better than most teams - cover the spread. The Brownies have cashed out 16 of the last 21 times.


TEXANS (-9) over Bengals
This is a game rescheduled because of Hurricane Ike. "Monopoly" money only. <!-- / message -->