Service Plays Monday 10/27/08

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WILD BILL

Colts +3 1/2 (5 units)
Over 42 1/2 Colts-Titans (5 units)
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Hondo

Titans over Colts: Viewers reportedly are turning away from the nightly news by the hundreds of thousands at all three networks compared to last year. Evidently, the public is becoming increasingly repulsed by the Anchors For Obama News Cabal.

NFL Week 7 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (12-8 = 60.0%)

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

This is a classic "new kid in town" versus the "old gunslinger" match-up. Tennessee brings the league's only undefeated record into this game: a sparkling 6-0 record. Indy has been struggling and limps in at 3-3. The Colts have been showing signs of their championship form, but they lost again last week. The Public is leaning to the Titans, with about 60% of the bets taking Tennessee.

The line opened at Tennessee -3.5 but Public money has moved the line to the key number of Tenn -4. We like this extra value in a key divisional game. How often do you get a team like the Colts plus more than a field goal? We'll take the points on the "old gunslinger" and buy an underperforming Indy team that suffered a big loss last week versus Green Bay.

Indianapolis Colts +4

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:

Games to Watch (12-8 = 60.0%)

Miami Dolphins +1.5 (SIA)
St. Louis Rams +7.5
Indianapolis Colts +4
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Allen Eastman

$2200.00-105 #226 Tennessee (-4) over Indianapolis (8 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27)

Spylock

Tennessee....1 unit
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Dr. Bob


TENNESSEE (-4.0) 23 Indianapolis 16
05:35 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-27 - Stats Matchup
I went against the Colts last week for a 3-Star Best Bet winner on Green Bay, and Indy still appears to be overrated. The Colts have been just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they are only 0.2 yppl better than average if I take out Peyton Manning’s rusty performance in the opener against Chicago (he missed all of training camp and the pre-season and was obviously rusty). Tennessee’s defense is good against the run and good against the pass and the Titans rate at 0.8 yppl better than average defensively overall (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team), so I don’t expect the Colts to have much success in this game. The Titans’ offense has been a bit sluggish, rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average and they are at a slight disadvantage against a Colts’ stop unit that is just average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Tennessee is clearly the better team and my math model favors the Titans by 8 points in this game. There are very strong situations favoring both sides in this game, so I’ll stick with the math and lean with the Titans minus the points.
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Chris Rizzo

BEST BET PLAY 2-0 YTD

INDY 4
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SUNSHINE FORECAST

Monday, October 27, 2008

Indianapolis Colts (+3½) at Tennessee Titans

Power Rating Projection:

Tennessee Titans 21 Indianapolis Colts 19
Statistical Projections

Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Tennessee Titans 19 Indianapolis Colts 17
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GOLD SHEET

NFL


MONDAY, OCTOBER 27

*Indianapolis 24 - TENNESSEE 23—Indy is clearly not the team of recent
years. Peyton Manning has only 8 TDP vs. 7 ints. The OL has been banged up, Joseph Addai is expected to miss another game, and Marvin Harrison doesn’t seem to be his old self. The DL is undersized, and 2007 defensive player of the year Bob Sanders is out. In LY’s 16-10 Titan victory in Game 16, Tennessee needed to win, while the Colts did not, with Manning completing 14 of 16 before taking a seat. But it’s now do-or-die for one of the league’s proudest teams, which is 8-4 vs. the spread the last 5+Ys as a road dog. Titans 6-0 SU & vs the spread in 2008, but their schedule has hardly been imposing. Let’s see how they cope with Indy’s desperation shot. CABLE TV—ESPN (07-Indy 22-TENN. 20...I.23-19 T.34/141 I.22/81 I.28/42/1/300 T.17/27/0/172 I.0 T.2)
(07-Tenn. 16-INDY 10...T.25-13 T.39/98 I.10/46 T.24/31/0/258 I.25/40/0/148 T.2 I.1)
(07-Indianapolis -7 22-20, Tennessee -4' 16-10...SR: Indianapolis 15-12)
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Sixth Sense
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TENNESSEE –4 TENNESSEE 23 INDIANAPOLIS 13

3% TENNESSEE -4
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Doc's Sports

3 Unit Play. #126 Take Tennessee Titans -4 over Indianapolis Colts (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Titans take control of the AFC and we collect big the process as well.
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ErockMoney's pick:

Indianapolis (+4.5)

Robert Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #226 Tennessee (-4) over Indianapolis (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 27)
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Jimmy Boyd

Monday 10/27
5* AFC South GOTY on Colts +4
I like the Colts to spoil Tennessee brilliant start this week. Indy is coming off a terrible performance at Green Bay last week and it will be in full blown bounce back mode against its division rivals. Indy is 8-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons, and 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. Plays on road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, in weeks 5 through 9 are 26-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Colts.
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Dave Malinksy

6* Tennessee
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Pointwise

MONDAY
TENNESSEE 30 - Indianapolis 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Titans just keep on doing
it. Not only are they the only unbeaten team in the NFL, but they've gone 5-0-1
ATS this year, with 10, 18, 14½, 10, & 15 pt covers. Racked up 332 RYs vs KC,
with Johnson & White posting 168 & 149 RYs, respectively. Colts still seeking an
overland game, as they've been outrushed 922-420 thus far, & Manning is off a
pair of crucial INTs in loss to the Packers. And check Tennessee with allowing
less than 18 pts in each of its last 10 games. We'll give the Colts a bit more than
that, but bucking this Titan squad has been suicidal. Are 4-0 ATS in series lately

KEVIN O’NEILL’S
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 9 Issue 10 October 23-27, 2008 •

Monday, October 27th, 2008

Colts (+4) @Titans
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik Tennessee is the deserving favorite here, as they bring a perfect 6-0 record into this contest. The
defense is rock solid, ranking in the NFL’s top 3 in points per game (11.0), yards per game (269 yards per game), and yards per play (4.5 yards per play). They are definitely one of the league’s best coached by one of the league’s best in Jeff Fisher. However, it must be noted that they have not yet played a team with a winning record, and the best statistical
offense they have shut down is Houston, a team who has gotten much of their yards in games where they trailed big early. In fact, 3 of the offenses they have faced are among the league’s bottom 6. Not
saying the Titans aren’t the real deal, but they certainly better be if they want to pull away from a veteran Colts team that is basically in must-win
mode here. Tennessee leans heavily on their defense, and I’d like to see them against a real offense before christening them the new king of this
division. The Colts trail the Titans by 3 games in the AFC South, and have already lost a divisional game to Jacksonville. They have played plenty of big games over the last 5-6 seasons, and that experience will help them here. They have played a tougher schedule than has Tennessee, and have dealt with a ton of injuries. Although Joseph Addai is probably out again here, they are now healthy on the offensive line, and there’s a chance that one of the league’s best safeties Bob Sanders returns today
(check status). Peyton Manning has seen everything this league can throw at him defensively, and I have to believe that he will find something that works against the Titans’ rugged defense as Indy still has plenty of weapons. He’s beaten the Titans 8 out of the last 10 times he’s faced them, with one of the losses coming in the season finale last year when
the Colts rested their starters. That’s the only time that Tennessee has been favored during those 10 meetings before today. Indy is 8-3 to the number as an away underdog under Tony Dungy, and have won 12 or more games in 5 straight seasons. You don’t get that kind of pedigree in a 4-point underdog too often. They have been in must win games before, while Tennessee is in unfamiliar territory here. They have the better record, but are they really better based on who they have beaten? Also, can they generate offense if Indy puts up some of their own points on
that mighty defense? We shall see, but this game is priced like those questions don’t exist when they certainly do. Like I said, must-win for Manning and company. Indy by 3

STAT FOX THE PLATINUM SHEET - NFL

10/27/2008 (225) INDIANAPOLIS at (226) TENNESSEE
Tennessee is starting to resemble the Green Bay team on ’07, one that is
winning games but not getting the respect it deserves from the oddsmakers. Still, even those types of clubs fail to cover spreads occasionally, and the way with which the Titans are winning games offers up a good matchup historically for the Colts. Look at a couple of the trends: INDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against
a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 28.1, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 3*). AND INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. good defensive teams
who give up 17 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 27.3, OPPONENT 20.0 - (Rating = 2*). The Titans have also been far from reliable as a home favorite of 3.5-7
points: 10-22 ATS. If the Colts have any fight left in them, they will bring it on Monday night. It could be their last chance to save ’08. This
has the feel of a late field goal win either way. I’ll take the points and Peyton Manning. Play: Indianapolis +4

TOP NFL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 8 (ATS & Total)

Monday, 10/27/2008 (225) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (226) TENNESSEE
The UNDER is 6-0 in the L6 games between TENNESSEE & INDIANAPOLIS.

THE SPORTS REPORTER -NFL

MONDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 27
*TENNESSEE over INDIANAPOLIS by 5
TENNESSEE, 22-17