Celts 1st half total 89.......how often does the TOTAL land on this number???

barman · Oct 28, 2008

How in the world would anyone answer that question?

I'm sure 89 is not an unusual first half finish, but at over 1300 NBA games per year, how often it lands exactly on that number is a mystery

Unless you'd like to lob me a few grand to build a database of Quarter and Halftime numbers for the past five years......

Fishhead · Oct 28, 2008

barman said:
How in the world would anyone answer that question?

I'm sure 89 is not an unusual first half finish, but at over 1300 NBA games per year, how often it lands exactly on that number is a mystery

Unless you'd like to lob me a few grand to build a database of Quarter and Halftime numbers for the past five years......

Hi Barman

Good luck with your Rays, they still can do it.

On the total, one can most certainly estimate a percentage of times that this game will land on this number(an estimate that is very, very close)........just like any number in most any sport. This is how scalpers/middlers grind out profits over the longhaul........by beating the percentages.

whalewager · Oct 28, 2008

well estimate it then...werent u in the business at one time

whalewager · Oct 28, 2008

1.1% btw

Doug · Oct 28, 2008

I'd guess 5%+.

Fishhead · Oct 28, 2008

georgejefferson said:
1.1% btw

Re-think your position.

whalewager · Oct 28, 2008

I didnt put much thought into it. Thought I would throw out a number and watch the math wizzes go at it.

JohnnyB · Oct 28, 2008

Doug said:
I'd guess 5%+.

I would say about the same.

whalewager · Oct 28, 2008

I would say u cocks are wrong

mj23 · Oct 28, 2008

Last night they had a line would total points land on 45 and with a minute to go thats where it stood ?? :shocked:

Iceman · Oct 28, 2008

You would be amazed (not you Fish) but most others.

enough that it is one of the most profitable middles to play (nba 1st half or 2nd half totals). I had a great one with the Bulls tonite but it didnt hit.

JohnnyB · Oct 28, 2008

Iceman said:
You would be amazed (not you Fish) but most others.

enough that it is one of the most profitable middles to play (nba 1st half or 2nd half totals). I had a great one with the Bulls tonite but it didnt hit.

Even at full juice on both sides?

Like
O88.5 -110
U895. -110

Doug · Oct 28, 2008

Johnny B said:
Even at full juice on both sides?

Like
O88.5 -110
U895. -110

breakeven is hitting 1 of 21, 5% wins money.

JohnnyB · Oct 28, 2008

Doug said:
breakeven is hitting 1 of 21, 5% wins money.

True enough, and the more I think about it, I'd have to change my guess to around 8%.

Doug · Oct 28, 2008

Johnny B said:
True enough, and the more I think about it, I'd have to change my guess to around 8%.

in particular if the original line is near 89, less so if the line is like 109.

I'm saying all games should hit 89 less so than games lined within 3-4 or so , of that 89 target. So backtesting looking for 89's is less accurate than narrowing it down, first.

JohnnyB · Oct 29, 2008

Doug said:
in particular if the original line is near 89, less so if the line is like 109.

I'm saying all games should hit 89 less so than games lined within 3-4 or so , of that 89 target. So backtesting looking for 89's is less accurate than narrowing it down, first.

Absolutely.

Doug · Oct 29, 2008

Catching that point on H2 is much more difficult than H1. Lines move like crazy.

Iceman · Oct 29, 2008

Johnny B said:
Even at full juice on both sides?

Like
O88.5 -110
U895. -110

no, 1.5 middles on halftime totals are great, that is what I had today. throw in a buy back at reduced juice.

D2bets · Oct 29, 2008

I would say around 3-3.5%.

Celts 1st half total 89.......how often does the TOTAL land on this number???

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