just want to make sure my thinking is straight on this. chime in if my logic is off. willing to lose $100.
taking the rays at +530 to win it all at matchbook would pay me $530 or $0.
instead of that option, i take them +154 today. that pays $154
in game 6 i take them at -125 or so, but wager my $154 winnings + my initial $100 i am willing to lose if the phillies win it all. that pays $190.50
in game 7 i take them at +130 or so (vs hamels), but i wager my initial $100, $154 from game 5, and $190.50 from game 6. that pays $577.85
thoughts on this? it all depends on what the lines in game 6 and 7 are going to be. am i off by more than 5 cents on either? i'm assuming garza in game 6 to make the rays favorites.
it's not likely, but i'm just trying to calculate the expected return if the rays can pull it off.
taking the rays at +530 to win it all at matchbook would pay me $530 or $0.
instead of that option, i take them +154 today. that pays $154
in game 6 i take them at -125 or so, but wager my $154 winnings + my initial $100 i am willing to lose if the phillies win it all. that pays $190.50
in game 7 i take them at +130 or so (vs hamels), but i wager my initial $100, $154 from game 5, and $190.50 from game 6. that pays $577.85
thoughts on this? it all depends on what the lines in game 6 and 7 are going to be. am i off by more than 5 cents on either? i'm assuming garza in game 6 to make the rays favorites.
it's not likely, but i'm just trying to calculate the expected return if the rays can pull it off.
