DR. BOB (FREE ANALYSIS).
We still need his paid plays:
CLEVELAND (-1.5) 20 Baltimore 17
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
Cleveland has rebounded from 3 losses to start the season by winning 3 of their last 4 games and the Browns have a pretty good chance to get to .500 today. Baltimore has been a better than average team through their first 7 games, averaging 4.7 yppl while allowing just 4.4 yppl to an average schedule, but the Ravens haven’t been as good in pass defense since losing starting CB Samari Rolle and FS Dawan Landry. Baltimore allowed just 183 total passing yards and 2.8 yards per pass play in the first two games of the season with their great secondary intact (including a week 3 win against the Browns), but the Ravens have allowed 6.6 yppp in 5 games without Rolle and Landry (to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp against an average team) so Browns’ Derek Anderson should have much more success throwing the ball in this game than he did in week 2. The Ravens are still great against the run, but my math model projects 217 net yards passing for the Browns and 288 total yards. That will probably be good enough to win this game against a bad Ravens’ attack that I rate at 0.6 yards per play worse than average. Cleveland’s defense has played decently since allowing 488 yards at 7.9 yppl in their opening loss to Dallas (they’ve allowed 17 points or less in 4 consecutive games) and that unit yielded just 4.5 yppl in their 10-28 loss to the Ravens) and my math model favors the Browns by 2 ½ points in this game.
Jacksonville (-7.5) vs. CINCINNATI
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here
Arizona (-3.0) 26 ST. LOUIS 20
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
The Rams have improved under new coach Jim, Haslett, but they’ve still been out-gained 5.1 yards per play to 5.8 yppl during their 3 game spread win streak and have looked better than they are in those games because of a +7 in turnover margin. The Rams’ offense is still 0.4 yppl worse than average for the season and their defense is 1.1 yppl worse than average for the season, allowing 6.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. That unit is improved since Jason Craft began playing in the secondary in week 4 and the return of CB Fakhir Brown from a 2 game absence has also helped the last two weeks. Craft is 3rd on the team in tackles despite playing in just 4 games and Brown is an improvement over former starter Tye Hill, who has missed the last 3 games to injury. But, even with those improvements I still rate the Rams’ defense at 0.7 yppl worse than average and that unit should be exploited by an explosive Cardinals attack that has averaged 5.8 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and rates at 0.9 yppl better than average with WR Anquan Boldin back after a 2 game absence. Arizona’s defense has allowed 5.7 yppl but they’ve faced a schedule of mostly good offensive teams and the Cardinals have been much better with former All-Pro S Adrian Wilson playing (he missed games and the Jets and Bills in which the secondary allowed 7.5 yards per pass play without him). Arizona is clearly the better team even with the Rams being improved, but St. Louis applies to a very good 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator that will keep me from making the Cardinals a Best Bet.
BUFFALO (-5.5) 21 NY Jets 17
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
The only thing separating these teams is the interceptions each teams quarterback has thrown and that will probably prove to be the difference in which team covers the spread. The Jets’ offense has averaged a solid 5.5 yards per play this season, but they’ve done so against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, so New York is actually 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense. Buffalo is 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average stop unit, so the Bills have a solid 0.4 yppl advantage over New York’s offense in this game. Buffalo’s offense is also averaging 5.5 yppl this season, but the Bills have faced a schedule of weak offensive teams and I rate their attack at 0.2 yppl worse than average – the same rating as the Jets’ offense. New York’s defense, meanwhile, is 0.2 yppl better than average (just as the Bills are), so they too have a 0.4 yppl advantage over Buffalo’s offense. The difference between the teams has been turnovers, as the Jets are -6 in turnover margin with Brett Favre throwing 11 interceptions while the Bills are only -2 in turnovers with Trent Edwards having thrown just 3 picks. Farve isn’t likely to continue throwing interceptions at the rate he’s thrown them lately, but I still forecast the Bills to have a 0.5 turnover advantage in this game. If the turnover margin is even then the Jets probably will cover and if the turnover margin is in favor of the Bills then they probably cover. My math model favors Buffalo by 4 ½ points with the projected 0.5 turnover difference and I’ll lean slightly with the Jets plus the 5 ½ points.
Tampa Bay (-9.0) 24 KANSAS CITY 14
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
Kansas City beat me last week when they managed to lost by just 4 points against the Jets, but they were still out-gained 5.6 yards per play to 6.5 yppl despite rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen playing way over his head in completing 69.4% of his passes for 6.8 yards per pass play. Kansas City still needed a +3 in turnover margin to come close to winning and it’s not likely that Thigpen will repeat last week’s good performance given he’s completed just 50% of his 126 passes this season while averaging a pathetic 4.3 yppp. Tampa Bay’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average and has allowed 176 yards and 173 yards in their last two games to below average offensive teams Seattle and Dallas (below average with Johnston at QB instead of Romo). The Chiefs are terrible defensively too (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team), so Tampa’s mediocre attack should perform well in this game and Jeff Garcia is not likely to bless the Chiefs with interceptions as Brett Favre did last week (Garcia has thrown just 6 interceptions on 484 pass attempts as Tampa Bay’s quarterback). I’d love to take the Bucs here, but Kansas City applies to a 46-13-1 ATS home dog angle and a 50-12-1 ATS home dog angle that combine to go 24-3 ATS when both apply to the same game. I can’t go against Kansas City given that they are in a such a good general situation, but I also don’t want to go against Tampa Bay given that they should be favored by about two touchdowns in this game and have a history of playing well after losses. Jon Gruden’s teams at Oakland and Tampa are now 28-12-2 ATS as a favorite or pick following a loss, including 2-0 ATS this season with wins of 24-9 over Atlanta and 27-3 over a good Carolina team. I suppose I would rather have Tampa Bay than Kansas City here, but it’s probably best to pass this one given the angles favoring the Chiefs.
TENNESSEE (-5.5) 23 Green Bay 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
The Titans remain the only unbeaten team in the NFL and they should escape this game with that distinction intact. Tennessee relies on a strong defense (0.8 yards per play better than average) and a conservative offense to win games and their run-oriented attack (54% runs) matches up well with a Packers’ defense that has trouble defending the run (5.1 ypr allowed). Green Bay is good against the pass, but they are just average overall defensively while being just 0.1 yppl better than average on offense. My math model favors Tennessee by 5 ½ points, so the line is fair, but I like the match-up for the Titans and Tennessee applies to a 79-30-2 ATS statistical profile indicator. Tennessee also applies to a negative 18-41-1 ATS angle that plays against teams that have covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, but I’ll still lean slightly with the Titans.
MINNESOTA (-4.5) 26 Houston 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
Minnesota is a better than average team from the line of scrimmage, averaging 5.2 yards per play and allowing 5.0 yppl to a tougher than average schedule, but the Vikings are plagued by horrible special teams play that has resulted in a blocked punt and 3 punt return touchdowns against them. Houston is one of the better teams in the league at special teams once again this season and they’ll probably need a special teams impact play to win this game, as the Texans better than average offense (5.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) is undermined by a horrible defense that’s allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team. My math model projects the Vikings with a 393 yards to 301 yards edge in this game, but special teams could keep them from covering. Houston has won 3 straight games to get back into the playoff hunt and that could have easily been a 5 game win streak (they lost in OT to Jacksonville and blew a 20 point 4th quarter lead to Indy prior to winning 3 straight), so the Texans are finding ways to compete despite their bad defense. My math model favors Minnesota by 3 ½ points but Houston is just 3-13 ATS on the road following a victory, so I’ll call for a 5 point win in a game that is best left alone.
CHICAGO (-12.5) 25 Detroit 17
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
Detroit lost their first 4 games by an average of 20 points, but the Lions are not quite as dismal recently in losing their most recent 3 games by an average of just 6 points. The Lions are in a good position to cover again as a big dog against a team that they already lost to by a 7-34 count. It may be tough for the Bears to take this game seriously after wining so easily in Detroit and the Lions apply to a 227-112-9 ATS contrary indicator as well as a 93-42-3 ATS situation that plays on teams on a 5 games or more losing streak. My math model favors Chicago by 16 points and I’m certainly not going to make Detroit a Best Bet with the negative line value, but the Lions are clearly the right side in this game based on the technical analysis.
DENVER (-3.5) 28 Miami 27
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
Denver shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal against a decent team until their defense starts to play better. The Broncos are already 0-4 ATS as a favorite or more than 3 points this season and a defense that’s allowing 6.4 yards per play and 28 points per game will make it tough for the Broncos to distance themselves from a Dolphins’ squad with a good offense (6.0 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). Denver will have to rely on an offense that has averaged 6.2 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and Jay Cutler should perform well against a Miami secondary that has given up 7.2 yards per pass play (to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppp). Overall, the Dolphins have been the better team this season and my math model favors the Miami by 1 ½ points. Denver applies to a 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator and a 46-14-4 ATS subset of a 123-60-8 ATS statistical indicator, but the Broncos also apply to a negative 54-103-2 ATS angle that plays against bad defensive teams as favorites. I’ll lean with Miami plus the points and also with the Over.
Atlanta (-2.5) 22 OAKLAND 21
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
My math model favors Atlanta by 4 ½ points in this game, but the Raiders apply to a 244-154-12 ATS statistical profile indicator and a 49-21-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. The Raiders are at their best when they can run the ball successfully and they should be able to do so against an Atlanta defense that’s given up 4.8 ypr to teams that would combine to average just 4.1 ypr against an average defensive team. I’ll lean with the Raiders plus the point based on the technical analysis.
NY GIANTS (-9.0) 28 Dallas 14
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
The Cowboys have been horrible offensively in two games with Brad Johnson at quarterback instead of Tony Romo, averaging just 4.3 yards per play and scoring a total of 27 points against the Rams and Bucs. I expect Johnson to be considerably better than he’s been the last two weeks, but my math model still favors the Giants by 14 points in this game and I don’t see New York feeling sorry for the Cowboys with a chance to add another game between them in the NFC East standings.
Philadelphia (-6.5) 25 SEATTLE 18
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
The Eagles are much better than their 4-3 record, as they’ve out-gained their opponents 5.9 yards per play to 4.8 yppl while out-scoring them 27.7 points to 19.6 points per game. Seattle’s offense has averaged less than 5.0 yppl in all but 1 game this season (St. Louis being the exception) and that pathetic attack has averaged only 4.6 yppl for the season while the defense has given up 5.6 yppl. Seneca Wallace has done a better job of leading the Seahawks the last two weeks, but my math model still favors Philly by 11 ½ points even after factoring that in. I can’t take the Eagles because Seattle applies to a 96-40-3 ATS momentum situation based on last week’s win in San Francisco and a 199-119-6 ATS statistical indicator also applies to Seattle. I’ll pass.
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.0) 23 New England 17
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-02 - Stats Matchup
Both of these teams are overrated, but New England has been especially sub-par this season in averaging 5.1 yards per play while allowing 5.7 yppl despite playing a very easy schedule of teams. The Colts, meanwhile, have averaged 5.3 yppl and allowed 5.1 yppl while playing a tougher than average schedule and my math model favors Indy by 7 points in this game. There is a minor situation that favors the Patriots in this game, so I’ll call for a 6 point win.
Pittsburgh vs. WASHINGTON (-1.5)
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Nov-03 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here
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LAY ON any 0-8 NFL team in Game Nine if they won 8or less games last season...."simply"12-0-1 ATS Since 1990 ..100% for 17 seasonsThe Jags are off a home loss vs a team they should havebeaten, and they are on the road vs a team they shouldbeat easily. When this happens, the strong team is waryof giving the game away to the weak team, and they playcautiously, waiting for the other team to make the firstmistake. This results in low scoring games, and a gameour system says will keep the home team close.Cinci is the worst offensive team in the league, but theyshockingly have better defensive numbers than the Jags.The Bengals have played a very tough schedule, as everyteam they have faced has at least 3 wins.Thats Tenn, Giants, Balt, Dallas, Pitt ....We know theBengals are a bad team, but the other 13 teams in thisspot were all TRAGIC, and not one failed to cover.It's easy to think like almost everyone, that the Jags areoff a poor game, Cinci off a 30 pt loss, should get waxed.Sorry, the numbers say different. How smart is it to layalmost dble digits to a home team with a better defense?Off rank: 20th (317 ypg). Def rank: 23rd (338.6 ypg)now for the BengalsOff rank: 32nd (229 ypg). Def rank: 22nd (338 ypg)Jags a soft 3-13 away into revenge 
