What pct of weekend poker players at the $1-2 level have winning years, best guess?

Iceman · Nov 12, 2008

Depending on who you ask, they say around 5% of the sports bettors are winning bettors. I would say this has to be based over quite a few bets because that wouldnt be true if this was based on a weekend of betting. So I would assume this is based on a lifetime of betting or so, lets go with a rough estimate of over 1,000 bets placed that if you could figure it out that less then 5% of the sports bettors are wininng players. I am thinking most would agree this sounds about right, maybe even less over 1,000 bets. Now lets say you could poll 1,000 NL poker players who play at the $1-2 (weekend warrior types) and play over 200 hours a year (avgerage 4 hours a week) LIVE poker at casinos what pct would you say are winning players? Is there a way to figure this out with the rake pct's (I have no idea as I dont know enough about this so I am asking). Has there ever been studies done? I am just wondering because I think the perception among most is a lot of people win at poker. I think whatever you cut it has to be pretty standard at all levels that X amount of players have lost money in the past year of playing. Wouldnt be around 10% or so are winning players based on the math, etc..

I think one huge difference between sports bettors who like to bet regularly and poker players at the same level, it is a much higher pct of poker players who will tell you they win. In fact since I have been here I dont think I have met a person who plays poker on a regular basis who admits he is a losing player for the past year (pretty sure 99% dont keep accurate records and have a clue). Now I am not saying that sports bettors admit this either but from what I have seen poker players ego with their game is much much higher then sports bettors who have the more down on your luck thing going more for them. Since I have been gambling most to all of my adult life though there is one group that admits to losing like they are almost proud of it and that is horse players, LOL.

TheRightSide · Nov 12, 2008

I will be a winner on the year. I don't have the exact #'s but I know I am far ahead of the game.

LOL Ice we all know that the ponies are by far the toughest nut to crack.

This comming year I will keep very good records. This is something that is needed to realy tell the truth. Its like sometimes when I only lose a 100 or so I would say I didn't lose much. But its very important to not lie to yourself. Doesn't matter what you tell people bottom line winning or losing only count to yourself.

festeringZit · Nov 12, 2008

I keep detailed results in a spreadsheet, I think over the
last 6-7 years I have had 2 losing months.

Fishhead · Nov 12, 2008

Get this......

98% of those that DO WIN at these levels would be better off playing measly 25 cent full pay dueces wild, which equates to about $6.00 an hour plus comps and cashback. What I'm essentially saying is that 98% of the 1-2 players that actually make money over the course of 2000 hours, make LESS than this rate.

I need to get to Vegas soon and show you a few bar/tavarn tricks Mr. Iceman

jwunderdog · Nov 12, 2008

I am a losing player in poker. I think your 5% is way to high in sports, more like 1%.

Hal01 · Nov 12, 2008

Fishhead said:
Get this......

98% of those that DO WIN at these levels would be better off playing measly 25 cent full pay dueces wild, which equates to about $6.00 an hour plus comps and cashback.

How much would this equate to if one played for 6 hours per day for 3 days?

Akillies · Nov 12, 2008

Approaching 0%, the amount of poker players whom admit to being a long term loser. In live play the rake and tips will kill over the long haul.

ProPokerPlayer · Nov 12, 2008

I believe that 95% of ALL poker players are net losers overall if they play regularly for any extended period of time...

Very few cash game players are more than a buy-in or 2 away from being a loser and tourny players or only as ahead as their last big score takes them...big scores can be few and VERY FAR between and a lot of times by the time they get a score they owe backers,etc most of what they win...
Gambling is a grind just like anything else....

PO69 · Nov 12, 2008

There is an old saying,

"90 percent of the money at the poker tables will belong to 10% of the players."

Of course this really relates to the fact that only 9% of players make the money in tournaments.

But to directly answer your question, the % would be around 20%. The rake and tip costs alot of players from finishing ahead.

PO69 · Nov 12, 2008

One VERY important factor that you didnt account for above though. You are talking about $1-2 no limit. I would assume that the max rake would be $5.

Now lets consider $5-5 no limit or $2-5 no limit. The max rake is still $5. There are players all of the time at our local casinos that play everyday and make money. But that % is around 20-30% of the regular players. Now I know that alot of you will say that this number is too high, but why would that be??

I mean most pots are around $200-400 AT LEAST with some pots getting to $1000. The maximum rake is $5 with $1 jackpot contribution. So out of that $1000, only $6 goes to the house and $1 tip.

If no one makes money, then where does that $1000 go? If you play in the same game all of the time, you can learn players habits and tendencies. At that time, you can easily turn a profit playing poker, but you need to step up further than the $1-2 tables

BAGIANT · Nov 12, 2008

They say that 10% of the players win 90% of the money.

Akillies · Nov 12, 2008

in a game with an average pot of $2-300 what kind of players are you going to be playing against?

anyone not very good wont be playing for long.

Fishhead · Nov 12, 2008

Hal01 said:
How much would this equate to if one played for 6 hours per day for 3 days?

Not sure what you are asking.

However, will try and answer.

If your playing a machine that is worth $6.00 an hour on paper(longterm)........simple math would say you would be making 36 bucks if you played for 6 hours averaged out over the longhaul.

However, keeping in mind that without hitting Royal Flushes you are playing a losing game, most of the time you will lose in most stints of 6 hours, as one only hits a royal every 50-60 hours of play.

rickdee · Nov 12, 2008

If you think they are lying, just check! www.sharkscope.com

HatTrick · Nov 12, 2008

PO69 said:
There is an old saying,

"90 percent of my body is saturated fat."

Of course this really relates to the fact that only 9% of my penis is visible to the naked eye.

uke1:

Doug · Nov 12, 2008

PO69 is back !

Did Wilheim give you a pardon ? :missingte

PO69 · Nov 12, 2008

I had to beg and plead for the temporary pardon.

Give me 2 weeks and I will be banned again most likely for something that I didnt mean to do

shdw01 · Nov 12, 2008

nice to see you back PO69....i find amusement watching you take verbal abuse and stepping back up for more.

$1,000 pot and $1 tip? WTF?

shdw01 · Nov 12, 2008

If I break apart my game into 3 sections (I used to keep better track)
Cash games (for me, usually limit)
2004 - Lost a shitload
2005 - break even (including rake)
2006 - won (not enough to cover 2004 losses)
2007 - won (probably finally got into the black)
2008 - no idea (horrible records), but i think I'm down a fair amount

MTT
2004 - 2008 = all losses....I play <100/year but never cashed big

STT
2004 - won a good amount (partypoker days)
2005 - won a small amount
2006 - break even
2007 - loss a small amount
2008 - won a lot early, lost a lot more later (I blame TTinco for making me play $112 STTs!!!)

PO69 · Nov 12, 2008

shdw01 said:
nice to see you back PO69....i find amusement watching you take verbal abuse and stepping back up for more.

$1,000 pot and $1 tip? WTF?

Well I will tip maybe $3-5 for a $1000 pot. But NEVER More than $5. I see some newbies giving the dealer like $15 bucks on big hands.

What pct of weekend poker players at the $1-2 level have winning years, best guess?

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