Service Plays Thursday 11/13/08

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Pointwise

NEW YORK JETS over New England RATING: 3

THURSDAY
New York Jets 20 - NEW ENGLAND 19 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Why not? The Jets
have the revenge factor in their corner, with just a 4-yd deficit in first meeting. A week ago, NY scored on its 1st 8 drives, vs hapless Rams. Led 40-0 at the half. Check Jets run "D" at 55 ypg last 2 outings. Pats in off dominating Bills (24-10 FD, 37:40-22:20 time, 370-168 yd edges), but has yet to follow SU/ATS win with a cover. The division visitor in Jet games is on 6-0 & 14-3 ATS runs, with series visitor an amazing 17-2 ATS. And NY is 8-0 vs a division foe off a DD SU victory.



THURSDAY CFB

Buffalo 31 - AKRON 27 - (7:00 - ESPNU) -- Little to choose, as both balanced, behind quality QBs & RBs. Bulls: Willy (17/4) & Starks (177 RYs LW); Zips: Jacquemain (3 TDs vs Toledo) & Kennedy (905 RY TY). Akron at 259 RYpg last 3 tilts, but visitor is 7-0 ATS in Buffalo games & 7-2-1 ATS in Akron games.

MIAMI-FLORIDA 24 - Virginia Tech 23 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Hokies rolled easily LY (Wise Points), but not that easy this time around. A 197-78 RY edge for 'Canes in OT win over VA (Cooper: 131 yds), & own #14 "D". Tech a 285 RY edge vs MD (Evans: 254 yds), with returning Glennon a pleasant 14-of-20. To the wire.

UNLV 30 - Wyoming 24- (9:00 - CBSC) -- 'Pokes have come from double digit spread losses in each of their first 7 games, to 19½ & 32 pt covers the past 2 wks (Moore: 372 RYs last 2). And check allowing only 88 RYpg last 4. Rebs in off snapping 5-game slide, despite 232-55 RY deficit. Series pup yaps again.

THE GOLD SHEET

N.Y. JETS by 7 over New England (Thursday, Nov. 13)

*New York Jets 20 - NEW ENGLAND 13—Brett Favre wasn’t able to
alter the dynamics of this incestuous rivalry when teams first met in Week Two in N.Y., but that was just his second start for Jets. With Favre more familiar with new offense and Thomas Jones (149 YR last week vs. Rams) running up a storm, Jets capable of extending series visitor dominance (road team has covered last 6 reg.-season meetings). Stout N.Y. defense (just 3.1 ypc; 31 sacks) should force Matt Cassel to be more of a playmaker than Bill Belichick would prefer. TV—NFL NETWORK
(08-Ne. 19-NYJ 10...Ne.18-12 Ny.21/104 Ne.33/104 Ne.16/23/0/156 Ny.18/26/1/152 Ne.0 Ny.0) (07-Ne. 38-JETS 14...Ne.28-17 Ne.37/134 Ny.19/60 Ne.22/28/0/297 Ny.21/31/0/167 Ne.0 Ny.0) (07-NE. 20-Jets 10...Ne.16-13 Ne.35/131 Ny.17/90 Ny.25/40/1/146 Ne.14/27/1/134 Ne.0 Ny.1) (08-N. Eng. +1 19-10; 07-N. Eng. -6' 38-14, NEW ENG. -21 20-10...SR: New England 49-48-1)

The Gold Sheet

*Buffalo 34 - AKRON 24—Buffalo has won three straight, with recent play of RB James Starks (362 YR, 4 TDs last 2 games) and QB Drew Willy (66%, 5 TDP, 0 ints. last 3) leading the way. Meanwhile, Akron defense ranks 103 in pass efficiency “D” and vs. the run, and has allowed 34 ppg in MAC play. Zip QB Jacquemain & RB Kennedy have been productive, but Turner Gill and the Bull defense have a better chance of slowing them than Akron defense vs. Starks & Willy. CABLE TV—ESPNU (07-BUF. 26-Akron 10...A.21-18 B.51/155 A.39/142 A.19/39/2/185 B.11/14/0/125 B.0 A.1)
(07-BUFFALO -1 26-10 06-AKRON -17 31-16 05-Akron -10 13-7...SR: Akron 8-1)



*Virginia Tech 23 - MIAMI-FLORIDA 21—Tech hopes a future star was born last Thursday when RS frosh RB Darren Evans (61 TDs as high school senior!) blistered Maryland for school-record 253 YR. With sr. QB Glennon healthy, wily old Hokie HC Beamer (17-5 vs. spread last 22 as visitor) probably has enough offensive balance to slug out victory over still-learning Miami counterpart Shannon and his jelling Hurricanes. Very little home-field edge for youthful host in first season at far-from-campus Dolphin Stadium. CABLE TV—ESPN (07-VA. TECH 44-Miami 14...V.22-13 V.43/182 M.29/M2 M.21/36/1/215 V.14/26/0/176 V.0 M.2) (07-TECH -16' 44-14 06-Tech -2 17-10 05-Miami +6' 27-7...SR: Miami-Florida 16-9)



*UNLV 24 - Wyoming 22—Believe it or not, there are bowl implications
involved here, as winner can become postseason-eligible with wins this week and next! Not sure, however, we want to lay anything meaningful with UNLV bunch that still has defensive issues and has been forced to turn to talented (but green) RS frosh QB Clausen. Wyo still competing for under-fire Joe Glenn, and RS frosh QB Stutzriem effectively piloting low-risk Cowboy “O” that’s content to feed ball to RBs Moore & Seldon.
(07-WYO. 29-Unlv 24...U.23-20 W.46/208 U.41/43 U.21/39/2/223 W.13/33/2/156 W.0 U.0) (07-WYO. -11 29-24 06-Wyo. -9' 34-26 05-WYO. -18 42-17...SR: EVEN 8-8)

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND (Thursday, November 13)...Note that
the road team has covered the last 6 regular-season meetings
between these two. Belichick also “under” 8-2-1 last 11 on board.
Tech edge-slight to Jets and “under”, based on series and
“totals” trends.


BUFFALO at AKRON (Thursday, November 13)...Buffalo has
covered last 3 meetings, although only LY did Bulls win SU. Turner
Gill 4-0 vs. line away TY and 14-5 vs. spread last 19 as visitor.
Tech edge-Buffalo, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at MIAMI-FLORIDA (Thursday, November
13)...Hokies have had series edge, winning and covering last 2
and 4 of last 5 meetings, also 6-1 vs. line last 7 and 8 covers last
10 against Canes. Hokies 17-5 against number as visitor since ‘04.
Tech edge-VT, based on team and series trends.


WYOMING at UNLV (Thursday, November 13)...Wyo has won last
4 in series but failed to cover last two. Cowboys have now won and
covered their last 2 after 0-15-1 previous 16 on board. Rebs 5-15
vs. line last 20 as chalk (2-7 for Mike Sanford since ‘05; 1-2 TY). Tech
edge-Wyo, based on series trends.

burns and trace adams own thursdays..

Bettorsworld

Key Release

One word comes to mind when looking at this Thursday Night AFC East clash.......HUGE. These two sit at 6-3 on the year in one of the most tightly contested divisions in the NFL this year as both the Dolphins and Bills sit at 5-4. Obviously, a win here and a 7-3 record puts some space between the winner here and the rest of the pack. For the Pats, that would also give them one up on the Jets as they would have beaten them twice.

Remember when you were in grade school and the teacher would toss your lowest test score of the marking period before averaging your grade? Seems fair, right? Everyone has off days. Well, we can do the same thing when handicapping football games. Also fair. Hey, all teams have off days. In the case of he Pats and Jets you can toss two games each that don't seem to if with the rest of the results. For the Jets were going to toss the Charger game and actually a win over the Cards. Why the win? Because the game was uncharacteristic of the way the Jets have played defensively this year at least as far as total points given up in a game and will distort the point we are getting at. But keep in mind that in that game, the Jets SHUT OUT the high powered Cardinals offense in the first half taking a 34-0 lead into the locker room at halftime. You can discount the entire 2nd half really. For the Pats we will toss the Charger game, a 30-10 loss and the Dolphin game early in the year, a 38-13 loss. Again, both uncharacteristic when compared to the season as a whole. Especially when considering, in the Pats case, they had just lost their franchise QB with Brady going down.

When we toss the two games for each team, we are left with two very similar teams with very similar results. For the Jets we have a team averaging 24 points per game on offense while giving up just 15. They gave up 24 to the Chiefs. Other than that they have held everyone to 19 points or less. For the Pats, we see a team averaging 23.5 points per game while giving up just 13 on average. Very good numbers for both teams. Numbers which would put them both among the NFL's elite when just taking those numbers into consideration. The numbers ring true as far as the difference between these two teams because both have played a similar schedule. The Pats have had it a bit tougher only because they have faced the Colts already (who, by the way, are down a notch in case no one has noticed). Otherwise, you have games against the Chiefs, 49ers, Broncos, Rams and Bills. Likewise for the Jets. Bengals, Chiefs, Bills, Rams and the worst of all, a loss to the Raiders.

So, very similar results against very similar teams. Safe to say the Jets have performed a little better than the Pats offensively, and why not with Brett Favre having a little more time to learn the Jets schemes. The Pats have performed a little better then the Jets defensively, giving up 21 to the 49ers but holding the rest to 18 or less. Again, we are excluding those two games mentioned above. Brady going down is the difference in the Pats season to this point. The Pats are still the Pats at all other positions. They are still the Pats of a year ago defensively. Insert Brady and who knows what we'd be looking at offensively for the Pats thus far but you know it would be better than what Cassel has been able to do. That's not a knock on Cassel. He's done a fine job in an extremely tough spot. But it's impossible to follow a hall of famer.


When these two played in New York back in September, it was Cassel's first start, and Favre was still getting his feet wet with the Jets. Both offenses were at similar disadvantages and were limited. The game was fairly even statistically. Both teams had about 260 total yards which were evenly distributed among the pass and run. 60 yards in penalties for the Jets compared to 10 for the Pats hurt the Jets. Favre also had one key interception which the Pats converted to 7 points.

Big games like the one between these two Thursday Night always come down to one of two key mistakes in the end and in this case is likely to come down to the two men behind center, Favre and Cassel. Favre is one of the few guys in the sport that can win or lose games all by himself regardless of the supporting cast. We have seen that for close to two decades and the guy hasn't lost much. Remember, he's only 8 months removed from the NFC title game. He can hurt you as much as he can help you at times. He led the league in interceptions after week 10 which is not a category you want to top. But when push comes to shove, with everything on the line, who would you rather have on your side, Favre or Cassel?

The presence of Favres arm keeps defenses honest. With that long ball always a threat you can't cheat to stop the run. Cassel is much less of a threat. He's put in a position not to lose games with a ball control dink and dunk attack. The Jets defense ranks 5th in the NFL against the run allowing just 76 yards per game and are #2 in the NFL in sacks behind only the Steelers. With the Pats not likely to get the ball moving on the ground, it's going to fall on Cassel's arm.

The Jets on the other hand managed to average 5 yards per rush last time out against the Pats. Thomas Jones leads the AFC in rushing and again, with Favres arm strength keeping the defense honest, that is likely to continue Thursday Night. If the Jets are able to move the ball on the ground it will open up the passing game for Favre and once again, under those conditions, who would you rather have behind center, Favre or Cassel?

With the Jets ability to run the ball and stop the run, and with Favres ability to make big plays both down field and when he takes off and leaves the pocket the Jets would seem to have all the edges they need to spring the upset and take control of the AFC East in what amounts to the biggest game for this franchise in quite some time. Note that the Patriots have dominated this series in recent years having won 13 of 15. But there was one common denominator in those games......Tom Brady. The tide turns Thursday Night. We'll take the Jets. We are going to play half of our wager on the money line and half our wager at +3.5 -130.

So the Play is a 3* play which breaks down like this

1.5* Jets +140

1.5* Jets +3.5 -130
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Mighty Quinn
Today it's the Jets. The deficit is 795 sirignanos.

Insider Sports Report

Akron -3 over Buffalo (NCAAF)

Brandon Lang

Thursday
10 Dime Buffalo (be sure to buy the 1/2-point in this game if your bookmaker is showing a +3 and get the 3-1/2 points with the underdog)

10 Dime - Miami/Florida

10 Dime 6-point Teaser - Jets and Under



FREE - Buffalo-Akron Over

CAPPERS ACCESS

Thur (NFL) Jets
Thur (CFB) Miami-Fla

BIG AL
Our complimentary selection for Thursday, November 13 is:

Cleveland Cavaliers -5 over Denver Nuggets

Cajun Sports

Denver Nuggets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (NBA)
Nov 13, 2008 8:05 PM EST

Play: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers play host to the Denver Nuggets on Thursday evening at Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland has been playing well at home going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS. Cleveland is averaging 103.2 points per game on 48.5% shooting in those four home contests. On the defensive end of the floor they have been solid as well allowing 93.0 points per game on 40.1% shooting.

The 10 point differential between what the Cavaliers score and what they allow triggers a negative team angle for the Nuggets which tell us they are 4-13 ATS when facing a team on the road that outscores their opponents by 3 or more points per game. If their opponent outscores their foe by 6 or more points per game their record falls to 2-11 ATS.

Denver is still trying to adjust to having Chauncey Billups in the lineup and that could take a few weeks or maybe more to find their rhythm. This Nuggets team is allowing opponents to score almost 100 points per game when on the road and this is not a good sign when facing the Cavaliers at home.

On the technical front we see that the Cavaliers are 150-124-9 ATS as a favorite, 56-36-2 ATS after losing SU in their last game, 16-5-1 ATS after losing SU and the current line range is 4-5.5 points and the Cavs are 20-10-1 ATS after playing at home with the same line range.

Denver on the other hand is 8-23 ATS after going “Under” the posted total in their last two games, 142-172-3 ATS as a road underdog, 35-63 ATS in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games since 1996, 46-75 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 42-64 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins.

Our Team Performance Ratings Index has Cleveland with an 8.7 point advantage over the Nuggets in tonight’s contest. We also see that the Player Performance Ratings Index has the Cavs with a 7.4 point edge over the Denver Nuggets. Finally we have Cleveland active in a statistical indicator that is 117-68 ATS.

We are backing the host here as Cleveland gets the win and cover over the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night.


GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5

NHL
Write-up


Thursday, November 13

Hot teams
-- Coyotes won four of their last five games.
-- Bruins won four in row, seven of last eight games. Canadiens are 9-3 in their last dozen games.
-- Pittsburgh won its last four games, scoring 22 goals.
-- Kings won their last three games, allowing total of seven goals.
-- Oilers are back home after going 4-2 in last six games of 7-game trip.

Cold teams
-- Islanders lost three in row, nine of last eleven games. Senators lost last two games, scoring one goal; they scored total of 11 goals last 6 games.
-- Flyers lost three of their last four games.
-- Lightning lost four of their last five games. Red Wings are 2-3 in their last five games, allowing 19 goals.
-- Minnesota lost four of last six games; they're 3-1 in game after a loss.
-- Stars lost four of their last five games.
-- Maple Leafs lost three of their last four games.
-- Sharks lost two games in row for first time this year, after a 13-2 start. Flames lost last three road games, scoring total of four goals.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-3 in Islanders' last ten games, but last six Ottawa tilts went under the total. .
-- Four of last five Flyer games stayed under the total; last four Penguin games went over.
-- Over is 9-2 in Detroit's last eleven games.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in Minnesota's last six games.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Dallas games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Edmonton games; last seven Toronto games also went over.
-- Four of last five Calgary games went over the total.

Series Records
-- Canadiens won 16 of last 19 games against the Bruins.
-- Ottawa won ten of last twelve games against the Islanders.
-- Penguins won eight of last ten games against the Flyers.
-- Red Wings won last two games vs Lightning, 6-0/4-2.
-- Minnesota won its last seven games against the Coyotes.
-- Kings won three of last four games against Dallas.
-- Sharks beat Calgary in seven games in playoffs last spring.

Sorry b.s.s. Burns hasent been owning anything lately

Jr. Sports

10 unit - Miami-Fla

5 unit - New England

Matt Rivers Complimentary Play

For Thursday lay the points with UNLV at home even without Omar Clayton.

It's not the easiest thing to a lay a full touchdown with this UNLV football program with or without their starting Quarterback and especially when considering Wyoming just won in Knoxville against Tennessee but the Volunteers have proven to not be the Volunteers of old and in the end the Rebels are just too superior today.
Until two weeks ago these Cowboys were a complete joke this season. Then came a dreadful San Diego State team and Wyoming looked a lot better in a blowout win. Last week the 'Boys went to Knoxville as the 27 point dog and wn outright over Fat Phil Fulmer and the Vols. It would be so easy to say how this team has found their stride and blah blah blah but that simply just is not true. Wyoming has a really good running back in Devin Moore who will get some yards but in the end Wyoming's two game winning streak is about to go by the boards as they regress a bit to the team that was blitzed in many of the earlier games and I mean blitzed!
UNLV may be only 1-5 in conference and 4-6 overall but this team is actually pretty talented as they have been ultra competitive in games against legit teams like Arizona State, Utah, Air Force, BYU and Iowa State including winning outright against both the Sun Devils and Cyclones and falling late in covers against the others.
Wyoming just traveled back across the country after visiting Tennessee and after 60 minutes today UNLV will be just too good in something like a 37-14 win as these visitors come back down to Earth in miserable fashion.

The soccer Guru

Todays pick: Brommapojkarna (games at 1pm est)

he warned u might want to protect this game with a bet on tie also.

im 6-0 with this guy.

PREGAME PROS PODCAST
Matty O'Shea: Florida State -7
Marco D'Angelo: St Louis Rams +6
Tommy Rider: Iowa State +28
Vegas-Runner: Houston NCAAFB +4.5

$10 coupon - Tommy10