We may not know of Iowa's final bowl destination for a few weeks now, due to the
cloudy BCS bowl scenario.
There are a few aspects that will affect Iowa's final destination, some of them
obvious like next week's game against Minnesota.
But how Ohio State and Penn State finish will also have an impact, as will the
finish of Oregon State in the Pac 10.
I am still of the opinion that Ohio State and Penn State will win their final
games (OSU is home vs Michigan, PSU is home vs Michigan State).
Oregon State finishes at home against Cal, at Arizona and home against Oregon in
the 'Civil War'. All three of those teams are in the Pac 10's upper division, so
it will be tough for the Beavers to navigate that schedule unscathed. If they
did, that would mean they get the automatic bid to the Rose Bowl. That would
likely mean a one-loss USC team would be in competition for a second BCS bowl
bid from the Pac 10.
I am assuming the Big 12 and SEC will each get two bids. If the Pac 10 gets two
(provided Oregon State would win out), that would mean the Big Ten will receive
just one bid. I would then project Penn State to the Rose to play against Oregon
State, and Ohio State would play in the Capital One Bowl.
If Iowa wins against Minnesota, it would finish 8-4, having won five of its
final six games. Michigan State would finish 9-3, losing its final game, as I am
projecting a Spartan loss at Penn State. Style points may come into play here;
Iowa beat Penn State, and if Michigan State us unable to muster much of a fight
against the Nittany Lions next week, the Outback Bowl would be within their
right to select Iowa over Michigan State.
If they selected the Spartans, the Alamo Bowl, possibly against Missouri, would
be Iowa's likely bowl destination.
HOWEVER...I am not confident that Oregon State will finish 3-0 against their
schedule. I think they lose at least one game, and I think the BCS will take TWO
Big Ten teams.
Hypothetically, that could put an 8-4 Iowa team, provided they win next week, up
against a 9-3 Michigan State team, provided they lose at Penn State, for the Cap
One.
Randy Peterson of the Des Moines Register was on my radio show Friday. He is a
longtime beat writer for the DMR, and he wagered a 'Diet Soda' that the Cap One
would select Iowa over Michigan State.
They would be within their right to do that, because just one game would
separate the two schools. If that happened, we could see an Iowa vs Georgia
match up.
I tend to lean towards an Outback Bowl bid in that scenario, where Iowa would
play against either South Carolina or LSU.
One more note: I realize Northwestern could finish 9-3. But they would have the
same conference record at Iowa, and just one game better overall, therefore I do
not see one of the January Florida bowls selecting them over Iowa or Michigan
State.
But once again, as I said to start all of this, Iowa's bowl picture may not be
known until Sunday, December 7th, when the BCS bowl bids are handed out, and
everything else then falls in line.
Thank you,
HawkeyeNation.com Staff
Scout.com - Always on our Game
cloudy BCS bowl scenario.
There are a few aspects that will affect Iowa's final destination, some of them
obvious like next week's game against Minnesota.
But how Ohio State and Penn State finish will also have an impact, as will the
finish of Oregon State in the Pac 10.
I am still of the opinion that Ohio State and Penn State will win their final
games (OSU is home vs Michigan, PSU is home vs Michigan State).
Oregon State finishes at home against Cal, at Arizona and home against Oregon in
the 'Civil War'. All three of those teams are in the Pac 10's upper division, so
it will be tough for the Beavers to navigate that schedule unscathed. If they
did, that would mean they get the automatic bid to the Rose Bowl. That would
likely mean a one-loss USC team would be in competition for a second BCS bowl
bid from the Pac 10.
I am assuming the Big 12 and SEC will each get two bids. If the Pac 10 gets two
(provided Oregon State would win out), that would mean the Big Ten will receive
just one bid. I would then project Penn State to the Rose to play against Oregon
State, and Ohio State would play in the Capital One Bowl.
If Iowa wins against Minnesota, it would finish 8-4, having won five of its
final six games. Michigan State would finish 9-3, losing its final game, as I am
projecting a Spartan loss at Penn State. Style points may come into play here;
Iowa beat Penn State, and if Michigan State us unable to muster much of a fight
against the Nittany Lions next week, the Outback Bowl would be within their
right to select Iowa over Michigan State.
If they selected the Spartans, the Alamo Bowl, possibly against Missouri, would
be Iowa's likely bowl destination.
HOWEVER...I am not confident that Oregon State will finish 3-0 against their
schedule. I think they lose at least one game, and I think the BCS will take TWO
Big Ten teams.
Hypothetically, that could put an 8-4 Iowa team, provided they win next week, up
against a 9-3 Michigan State team, provided they lose at Penn State, for the Cap
One.
Randy Peterson of the Des Moines Register was on my radio show Friday. He is a
longtime beat writer for the DMR, and he wagered a 'Diet Soda' that the Cap One
would select Iowa over Michigan State.
They would be within their right to do that, because just one game would
separate the two schools. If that happened, we could see an Iowa vs Georgia
match up.
I tend to lean towards an Outback Bowl bid in that scenario, where Iowa would
play against either South Carolina or LSU.
One more note: I realize Northwestern could finish 9-3. But they would have the
same conference record at Iowa, and just one game better overall, therefore I do
not see one of the January Florida bowls selecting them over Iowa or Michigan
State.
But once again, as I said to start all of this, Iowa's bowl picture may not be
known until Sunday, December 7th, when the BCS bowl bids are handed out, and
everything else then falls in line.
Thank you,
HawkeyeNation.com Staff
Scout.com - Always on our Game
