Newsletters: 11/18 to 11/25

Search

The Juris Doctor
Joined
Sep 6, 2007
Messages
577
Tokens
Sunshine Forecast
==================
NFL Computer Predictions

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Cincinnati Bengals (+10½) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Power Rating Projection:

Pittsburgh Steelers 25 Cincinnati Bengals 15


Statistical Projections

Cincinnati Bengals 12
Rushing Yards: 72
Passing Yards: 152
Turnovers: 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 21
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 209
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 13
Angle: Short Preparation Week [Teams playing with less than a full week of preparation time ]
Go against Cincinnati Bengals ( Underdog (or PK) on the road, Covered at home in previous game, 16-25, 39.0% )

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Houston Texans (+3) at Cleveland Browns

Power Rating Projection:

Cleveland Browns 27 Houston Texans 21


Statistical Projections

Houston Texans 24
Rushing Yards: 131
Passing Yards: 281
Turnovers: 2

Cleveland Browns 26
Rushing Yards: 126
Passing Yards: 242
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Cleveland Browns 33 Houston Texans 27

Buffalo Bills (-6) at Kansas City Chiefs

Power Rating Projection:

Buffalo Bills 23 Kansas City Chiefs 19


Statistical Projections

Buffalo Bills 23
Rushing Yards: 119
Passing Yards: 229
Turnovers: 2

Kansas City Chiefs 17
Rushing Yards: 91
Passing Yards: 220
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Buffalo Bills 23 Kansas City Chiefs 20

New York Jets (+5) at Tennessee Titans

Power Rating Projection:

Tennessee Titans 25 New York Jets 18


Statistical Projections

New York Jets 17
Rushing Yards: 112
Passing Yards: 177
Turnovers: 2

Tennessee Titans 20
Rushing Yards: 101
Passing Yards: 189
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Tennessee Titans 26 New York Jets 19

New England Patriots(+3) at Miami Dolphins

Power Rating Projection:

New England Patriots 25 Miami Dolphins 19


Statistical Projections

New England Patriots 24
Rushing Yards: 117
Passing Yards: 264
Turnovers: 1

Miami Dolphins 21
Rushing Yards: 106
Passing Yards: 257
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to New England Patriots

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New England Patriots 26 Miami Dolphins 20

San Francisco 49ers (+11) at Dallas Cowboys

Power Rating Projection:

Dallas Cowboys 29 San Francisco 49ers 22


Statistical Projections

San Francisco 49ers 19
Rushing Yards: 109
Passing Yards: 197
Turnovers: 2

Dallas Cowboys 27
Rushing Yards: 99
Passing Yards: 254
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Dallas Cowboys 37 San Francisco 49ers 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers(-9) at Detroit Lions

Power Rating Projection:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Detroit Lions 18


Statistical Projections

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31
Rushing Yards: 141
Passing Yards: 301
Turnovers: 1

Detroit Lions 15
Rushing Yards: 79
Passing Yards: 214
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Tampa Bay Buccaneers

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Detroit Lions 21
Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road [Road teams favored by more than 7 points ]
Go against Tampa Bay Buccaneers ( No additional conditions, 49-71-3, 40.8% )

Philadelphia Eagles (+1) at Baltimore Ravens

Power Rating Projection:

Philadelphia Eagles 22 Baltimore Ravens 21


Statistical Projections

Philadelphia Eagles 24
Rushing Yards: 83
Passing Yards: 273
Turnovers: 2

Baltimore Ravens 18
Rushing Yards: 119
Passing Yards: 177
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Philadelphia Eagles

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Baltimore Ravens 21

Chicago Bears at St Louis Rams

Power Rating Projection:

Chicago Bears 27 St Louis Rams 17


Statistical Projections

Chicago Bears 31
Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 279
Turnovers: 1

St Louis Rams 16
Rushing Yards: 92
Passing Yards: 205
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

St Louis Rams 26 Chicago Bears 24
St Louis Rams (1 star)

Minnesota Vikings (+2½) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Power Rating Projection:

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Minnesota Vikings 22


Statistical Projections

Minnesota Vikings 25
Rushing Yards: 141
Passing Yards: 234
Turnovers: 2

Jacksonville Jaguars 23
Rushing Yards: 95
Passing Yards: 230
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Jacksonville Jaguars 30 Minnesota Vikings 27

Carolina Panthers (+1) at Atlanta Falcons

Power Rating Projection:

Carolina Panthers 24 Atlanta Falcons 23


Statistical Projections

Carolina Panthers 19
Rushing Yards: 143
Passing Yards: 162
Turnovers: 2

Atlanta Falcons 19
Rushing Yards: 126
Passing Yards: 211
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Carolina Panthers 29 Atlanta Falcons 28

Oakland Raiders (+10) at Denver Broncos

Power Rating Projection:

Denver Broncos 27 Oakland Raiders 19


Statistical Projections

Oakland Raiders 17
Rushing Yards: 132
Passing Yards: 164
Turnovers: 1

Denver Broncos 27
Rushing Yards: 119
Passing Yards: 280
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Denver Broncos 30 Oakland Raiders 21

Washington Redskins (-3½) at Seattle Seahawks

Power Rating Projection:

Washington Redskins 22 Seattle Seahawks 21


Statistical Projections

Washington Redskins 23
Rushing Yards: 125
Passing Yards: 253
Turnovers: 1

Seattle Seahawks 17
Rushing Yards: 97
Passing Yards: 153
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Washington Redskins 21 Seattle Seahawks 20

New York Giants (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Power Rating Projection:

New York Giants 26 Arizona Cardinals 24


Statistical Projections

New York Giants 30
Rushing Yards: 165
Passing Yards: 230
Turnovers: 2

Arizona Cardinals 26
Rushing Yards: 82
Passing Yards: 308
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

New York Giants 34 Arizona Cardinals 31

Indianapolis Colts (+2½) at San Diego Chargers

Power Rating Projection:

San Diego Chargers 25 Indianapolis Colts 23


Statistical Projections

Indianapolis Colts 23
Rushing Yards: 77
Passing Yards: 264
Turnovers: 1

San Diego Chargers 25
Rushing Yards: 108
Passing Yards: 233
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

San Diego Chargers 32 Indianapolis Colts 29

Monday, November 24, 2008

Green Bay Packers (+2½) at New Orleans Saints

Power Rating Projection:

Green Bay Packers 26 New Orleans Saints 25


Statistical Projections

Green Bay Packers 29
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 246
Turnovers: 1

New Orleans Saints 28
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 289
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Green Bay Packers 35 New Orleans Saints 34
<!-- / message --> <!-- controls -->
 

The Juris Doctor
Joined
Sep 6, 2007
Messages
577
Tokens
Sunshine Forecast College
==========================
CFB Computer Predictions

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Northern Illinois(-4) at Kent State

Power Rating Projection:

Northern Illinois 30 Kent State 22


Statistical Projections

Northern Illinois 27
Rushing Yards: 153
Passing Yards: 184
Turnovers: 2

Kent State 23
Rushing Yards: 213
Passing Yards: 177
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Northern Illinois 31 Kent State 23

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Ball State(-6) at Central Michigan

Power Rating Projection:

Ball State 29 Central Michigan 19


Statistical Projections

Ball State 35
Rushing Yards: 171
Passing Yards: 287
Turnovers: 1

Central Michigan 23
Rushing Yards: 151
Passing Yards: 235
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Ball State 28 Central Michigan 17

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Miami-Florida(+3½) at Georgia Tech

Power Rating Projection:

Georgia Tech 26 Miami-Florida 24


Statistical Projections

Miami-Florida 18
Rushing Yards: 124
Passing Yards: 145
Turnovers: 2

Georgia Tech 25
Rushing Yards: 217
Passing Yards: 106
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Georgia Tech 26 Miami-Florida 23

Friday, November 21, 2008

Miami-Ohio(+2) at Toledo

Power Rating Projection:

Toledo 32 Miami-Ohio 25


Statistical Projections

Miami-Ohio 23
Rushing Yards: 118
Passing Yards: 215
Turnovers: 2

Toledo 27
Rushing Yards: 127
Passing Yards: 232
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Toledo 35 Miami-Ohio 28

Buffalo(+3½) at Bowling Green

Power Rating Projection:

Bowling Green 30 Buffalo 27


Statistical Projections

Buffalo 26
Rushing Yards: 149
Passing Yards: 209
Turnovers: 1

Bowling Green 26
Rushing Yards: 131
Passing Yards: 239
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Bowling Green 39 Buffalo 24
Bowling Green (1 star)

Fresno State(-2½) at San Jose State

Power Rating Projection:

San Jose State 33 Fresno State 30


Statistical Projections

Fresno State 26
Rushing Yards: 174
Passing Yards: 203
Turnovers: 2

San Jose State 21
Rushing Yards: 128
Passing Yards: 164
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

San Jose State 39 Fresno State 36

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Eastern Michigan(+10½) at Temple

Power Rating Projection:

Temple 28 Eastern Michigan 16


Statistical Projections

Eastern Michigan 18
Rushing Yards: 125
Passing Yards: 221
Turnovers: 2

Temple 23
Rushing Yards: 149
Passing Yards: 159
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Temple 24 Eastern Michigan 12

Army(+17) at Rutgers

Power Rating Projection:

Rutgers 26 Army 15


Statistical Projections

Army 16
Rushing Yards: 220
Passing Yards: 52
Turnovers: 2

Rutgers 25
Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 250
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Rutgers 22 Army 10

Illinois(-2½) at Northwestern

Power Rating Projection:

Illinois 32 Northwestern 22


Statistical Projections

Illinois 29
Rushing Yards: 146
Passing Yards: 280
Turnovers: 2

Northwestern 26
Rushing Yards: 147
Passing Yards: 226
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Illinois 34 Northwestern 24
Historical trend: Take Northwestern ( Domination by Northwestern, 6-2, 75.0% )

Pittsburgh(+4) at Cincinnati

Power Rating Projection:

Cincinnati 24 Pittsburgh 21


Statistical Projections

Pittsburgh 24
Rushing Yards: 128
Passing Yards: 201
Turnovers: 2

Cincinnati 29
Rushing Yards: 106
Passing Yards: 284
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Cincinnati 20 Pittsburgh 17

Boston College(+2½) at Wake Forest

Power Rating Projection:

Boston College 24 Wake Forest 18


Statistical Projections

Boston College 19
Rushing Yards: 120
Passing Yards: 188
Turnovers: 3

Wake Forest 15
Rushing Yards: 88
Passing Yards: 162
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Boston College 20 Wake Forest 14

Indiana(+13) at Purdue

Power Rating Projection:

Purdue 30 Indiana 20


Statistical Projections

Indiana 24
Rushing Yards: 179
Passing Yards: 180
Turnovers: 1

Purdue 28
Rushing Yards: 136
Passing Yards: 274
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Purdue 29 Indiana 20
Historical trend: Take Purdue ( Domination by home team, 6-2, 75.0% )

Michigan(+19) at Ohio State

Power Rating Projection:

Ohio State 33 Michigan 19


Statistical Projections

Michigan 16
Rushing Yards: 146
Passing Yards: 131
Turnovers: 3

Ohio State 29
Rushing Yards: 163
Passing Yards: 176
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Ohio State 34 Michigan 21

Duke(+17½) at Virginia Tech

Power Rating Projection:

Virginia Tech 23 Duke 11


Statistical Projections

Duke 22
Rushing Yards: 69
Passing Yards: 250
Turnovers: 1

Virginia Tech 28
Rushing Yards: 162
Passing Yards: 173
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Duke

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Virginia Tech 20 Duke 7

Florida State(Pk) at Maryland

Power Rating Projection:

Maryland 27 Florida State 26


Statistical Projections

Florida State 24
Rushing Yards: 170
Passing Yards: 178
Turnovers: 2

Maryland 24
Rushing Yards: 130
Passing Yards: 199
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Florida State 28 Maryland 27

No Carolina State(+11½) at North Carolina

Power Rating Projection:

North Carolina 33 No Carolina State 12


Statistical Projections

No Carolina State 17
Rushing Yards: 115
Passing Yards: 169
Turnovers: 2

North Carolina 32
Rushing Yards: 157
Passing Yards: 213
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

North Carolina 29 No Carolina State 9
Historical trend: Take No Carolina State ( Domination by underdog, 6-2, 75.0% )

Iowa State(+10) at Kansas State

Power Rating Projection:

Kansas State 39 Iowa State 25


Statistical Projections

Iowa State 28
Rushing Yards: 165
Passing Yards: 227
Turnovers: 1

Kansas State 38
Rushing Yards: 150
Passing Yards: 336
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Kansas State 45 Iowa State 31
Historical trend: Take Kansas State ( Domination by favorite, 6-2, 75.0% )

Tennessee(+3½) at Vanderbilt

Power Rating Projection:

Vanderbilt 26 Tennessee 17


Statistical Projections

Tennessee 16
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 174
Turnovers: 2

Vanderbilt 17
Rushing Yards: 112
Passing Yards: 113
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Vanderbilt 21 Tennessee 13
Angle: After Losing as 20-Point Chalk [Teams coming off an upset loss as a 20-point favorite ]
Go against Tennessee ( Underdog by 1 to 9½ points, 6-9, 40.0% )

Arkansas(Pk) at Mississippi State

Power Rating Projection:

Mississippi State 22 Arkansas 21


Statistical Projections

Arkansas 24
Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 218
Turnovers: 2

Mississippi State 24
Rushing Yards: 119
Passing Yards: 197
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Arkansas 18 Mississippi State 17
Historical trend: Take Mississippi State ( Domination by home team, 6-2, 75.0% )

Akron(-2½) at Ohio

Power Rating Projection:

Akron 28 Ohio 25


Statistical Projections

Akron 31
Rushing Yards: 156
Passing Yards: 250
Turnovers: 2

Ohio 22
Rushing Yards: 119
Passing Yards: 245
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Akron 29 Ohio 27

Colorado State(-2½) at Wyoming

Power Rating Projection:

Colorado State 28 Wyoming 22


Statistical Projections

Colorado State 23
Rushing Yards: 104
Passing Yards: 198
Turnovers: 1

Wyoming 23
Rushing Yards: 237
Passing Yards: 151
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Colorado State 28 Wyoming 23

Marshall(+8) at Rice

Power Rating Projection:

Rice 39 Marshall 25


Statistical Projections

Marshall 23
Rushing Yards: 158
Passing Yards: 193
Turnovers: 2

Rice 34
Rushing Yards: 127
Passing Yards: 308
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Rice 45 Marshall 31

Syracuse(+19½) at Notre Dame

Power Rating Projection:

Notre Dame 33 Syracuse 17


Statistical Projections

Syracuse 18
Rushing Yards: 152
Passing Yards: 97
Turnovers: 1

Notre Dame 31
Rushing Yards: 163
Passing Yards: 242
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Notre Dame 33 Syracuse 17

Washington(-8½) at Washington State

Power Rating Projection:

Washington 35 Washington State 25


Statistical Projections

Washington 32
Rushing Yards: 166
Passing Yards: 235
Turnovers: 1

Washington State 25
Rushing Yards: 141
Passing Yards: 195
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Washington 40 Washington State 30
Historical trend: Take Washington ( Domination on the road by Washington, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Washington State ( Domination by underdog, 6-2, 75.0% )

Tulane(+28½) at Tulsa

Power Rating Projection:

Tulsa 48 Tulane 17


Statistical Projections

Tulane 24
Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 253
Turnovers: 2

Tulsa 54
Rushing Yards: 250
Passing Yards: 347
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Tulsa 54 Tulane 24

Texas Tech(+6½) at Oklahoma

Power Rating Projection:

Oklahoma 42 Texas Tech 36


Statistical Projections

Texas Tech 35
Rushing Yards: 107
Passing Yards: 360
Turnovers: 2

Oklahoma 41
Rushing Yards: 157
Passing Yards: 348
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Oklahoma 50 Texas Tech 33
Oklahoma (1 star)

Michigan State(+14½) at Penn State

Power Rating Projection:

Penn State 37 Michigan State 22


Statistical Projections

Michigan State 19
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 193
Turnovers: 1

Penn State 32
Rushing Yards: 226
Passing Yards: 204
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Penn State 41 Michigan State 26

Clemson(-3) at Virginia

Power Rating Projection:

Clemson 22 Virginia 20


Statistical Projections

Clemson 22
Rushing Yards: 82
Passing Yards: 244
Turnovers: 2

Virginia 18
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 193
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Clemson 17 Virginia 16

Air Force(+19) at Texas Christian

Power Rating Projection:

Texas Christian 32 Air Force 17


Statistical Projections

Air Force 12
Rushing Yards: 115
Passing Yards: 72
Turnovers: 1

Texas Christian 28
Rushing Yards: 182
Passing Yards: 215
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Texas Christian 31 Air Force 16

Stanford(+9) at California

Power Rating Projection:

California 35 Stanford 19


Statistical Projections

Stanford 22
Rushing Yards: 174
Passing Yards: 132
Turnovers: 2

California 29
Rushing Yards: 135
Passing Yards: 236
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

California 37 Stanford 21

Louisiana Tech(-6) at New Mexico State

Power Rating Projection:

Louisiana Tech 25 New Mexico State 21


Statistical Projections

Louisiana Tech 27
Rushing Yards: 218
Passing Yards: 136
Turnovers: 2

New Mexico State 17
Rushing Yards: 16
Passing Yards: 311
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Louisiana Tech 23 New Mexico State 19

Boise State(-6) at Nevada-Reno

Power Rating Projection:

Boise State 33 Nevada-Reno 21


Statistical Projections

Boise State 32
Rushing Yards: 94
Passing Yards: 318
Turnovers: 2

Nevada-Reno 23
Rushing Yards: 245
Passing Yards: 191
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Boise State 35 Nevada-Reno 23
Historical trend: Take Boise State ( Domination by Boise State, 6-1, 85.7% )
Historical trend: Take Boise State ( Domination by favorite, 6-1, 85.7% )

East Carolina(-7) at U-A-B

Power Rating Projection:

East Carolina 28 U-A-B 20


Statistical Projections

East Carolina 35
Rushing Yards: 169
Passing Yards: 310
Turnovers: 2

U-A-B 20
Rushing Yards: 165
Passing Yards: 183
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

East Carolina 26 U-A-B 18

UTEP(+15) at Houston

Power Rating Projection:

Houston 41 UTEP 28


Statistical Projections

UTEP 26
Rushing Yards: 94
Passing Yards: 251
Turnovers: 1

Houston 44
Rushing Yards: 196
Passing Yards: 403
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Houston 53 UTEP 28
Houston (1 star)

Brigham Young(+6) at Utah

Power Rating Projection:

Utah 34 Brigham Young 22


Statistical Projections

Brigham Young 24
Rushing Yards: 98
Passing Yards: 264
Turnovers: 2

Utah 26
Rushing Yards: 180
Passing Yards: 194
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Utah 42 Brigham Young 20
Utah (1 star)
Historical trend: Take Brigham Young ( Domination by underdog, 6-2, 75.0% )

Iowa(-6) at Minnesota

Power Rating Projection:

Iowa 24 Minnesota 16


Statistical Projections

Iowa 23
Rushing Yards: 177
Passing Yards: 188
Turnovers: 3

Minnesota 16
Rushing Yards: 87
Passing Yards: 189
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Iowa 20 Minnesota 11
Historical trend: Take Iowa ( Domination by Iowa, 6-2, 75.0% )

Oregon State(+3) at Arizona

Power Rating Projection:

Arizona 31 Oregon State 25


Statistical Projections

Oregon State 32
Rushing Yards: 181
Passing Yards: 225
Turnovers: 2

Arizona 30
Rushing Yards: 130
Passing Yards: 232
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Arizona 34 Oregon State 28
Historical trend: Take Arizona ( Domination by favorite, 7-1, 87.5% )
Historical trend: Take Oregon State ( Domination by Oregon State, 7-1, 87.5% )

West Virginia(-7) at Louisville

Power Rating Projection:

West Virginia 31 Louisville 19


Statistical Projections

West Virginia 24
Rushing Yards: 183
Passing Yards: 131
Turnovers: 1

Louisville 16
Rushing Yards: 134
Passing Yards: 154
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

West Virginia 30 Louisville 17

U-C-F(+4) at Memphis

Power Rating Projection:

Memphis 30 U-C-F 24


Statistical Projections

U-C-F 25
Rushing Yards: 167
Passing Yards: 133
Turnovers: 2

Memphis 24
Rushing Yards: 157
Passing Yards: 211
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Memphis 31 U-C-F 24

Nevada-Las Vegas(-13) at San Diego State

Power Rating Projection:

Nevada-Las Vegas 33 San Diego State 25


Statistical Projections

Nevada-Las Vegas 39
Rushing Yards: 184
Passing Yards: 274
Turnovers: 0

San Diego State 29
Rushing Yards: 104
Passing Yards: 313
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Nevada-Las Vegas 37 San Diego State 29
Historical trend: Take Nevada-Las Vegas ( Domination by favorite at San Diego State, 4-0, 100.0% )

Mississippi(+5½) at Louisiana State

Power Rating Projection:

Louisiana State 31 Mississippi 25


Statistical Projections

Mississippi 30
Rushing Yards: 164
Passing Yards: 214
Turnovers: 1

Louisiana State 28
Rushing Yards: 157
Passing Yards: 245
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Louisiana State 34 Mississippi 28
Historical trend: Take Mississippi ( Domination by underdog, 7-1, 87.5% )
Historical trend: Take Mississippi ( Domination by underdog at Louisiana State, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Mississippi ( Domination on the road by Mississippi, 4-0, 100.0% )

Idaho(+23) at Hawaii

Power Rating Projection:

Hawaii 42 Idaho 16


Statistical Projections

Idaho 18
Rushing Yards: 122
Passing Yards: 182
Turnovers: 3

Hawaii 36
Rushing Yards: 166
Passing Yards: 293
Turnovers: 3

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Hawaii 45 Idaho 20
Historical trend: Take Hawaii ( Domination by Hawaii, 4-0, 100.0% )

Florida Atlantic(+3) at Arkansas State

Power Rating Projection:

Arkansas State 30 Florida Atlantic 24


Statistical Projections

Florida Atlantic 29
Rushing Yards: 156
Passing Yards: 280
Turnovers: 2

Arkansas State 25
Rushing Yards: 181
Passing Yards: 174
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Arkansas State 32 Florida Atlantic 26

UL-Monroe(+3½) at Florida Intl

Power Rating Projection:

Florida Intl 30 UL-Monroe 22


Statistical Projections

UL-Monroe 21
Rushing Yards: 141
Passing Yards: 170
Turnovers: 1

Florida Intl 27
Rushing Yards: 150
Passing Yards: 219
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Florida Intl 30 UL-Monroe 22

North Texas(+21) at Middle Tennessee

Power Rating Projection:

Middle Tennessee 38 North Texas 14


Statistical Projections

North Texas 20
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 243
Turnovers: 3

Middle Tennessee 40
Rushing Yards: 134
Passing Yards: 344
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Middle Tennessee 38 North Texas 14

UL-Lafayette(+6) at Troy

Power Rating Projection:

Troy 36 UL-Lafayette 25


Statistical Projections

UL-Lafayette 26
Rushing Yards: 222
Passing Yards: 155
Turnovers: 3

Troy 36
Rushing Yards: 160
Passing Yards: 324
Turnovers: 1

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Troy 41 UL-Lafayette 30

Cal-San Luis Obispo at Wisconsin

Power Rating Projection:

Wisconsin 48 Cal-San Luis Obispo 8


Statistical Projections
No statistical projections for this game

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Wisconsin 50 Cal-San Luis Obispo 10

The Citadel at Florida

Power Rating Projection:

Florida 64 The Citadel 0


Statistical Projections
No statistical projections for this game

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Florida 70 The Citadel 6

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Connecticut(+4) at South Florida

Power Rating Projection:

South Florida 27 Connecticut 23


Statistical Projections

Connecticut 26
Rushing Yards: 164
Passing Yards: 171
Turnovers: 1

South Florida 23
Rushing Yards: 132
Passing Yards: 215
Turnovers: 2

SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

South Florida 26 Connecticut 23
Historical trend: Take South Florida ( Domination by home team, 4-0, 100.0% )
 

The Juris Doctor
Joined
Sep 6, 2007
Messages
577
Tokens
Official College Picks


November 21, 2008
Bowling Green (-3½) 39 vs. Buffalo 24

November 22, 2008
Oklahoma (-6½) 50 vs. Texas Tech 33

Houston (-15) 53 vs. UTEP 28

Utah (-6) 42 vs. Brigham Young 20
Reply With Quote
 

New member
Joined
Aug 29, 2008
Messages
122
Tokens
POINTWISE

Write-ups coming later...

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1--UTAH over Byu 38-17
1--RICE over Marshall 45-17
2--MEMPHIS over ucf 41-17
3--TCU over Air Force 45-20
3--nc state (+) over NORTH CAROLINA 24-26
4--TULSA over Tulane 66-13
5--Texas Tech (+) over OKLAHOMA 48-45
5--VIRGINIA TECH over Duke 34-7

NFL KEY RELEASES
3--ny giants over ARIZONA 30-20
4--Oakland (+) over DENVER 20-23
4--BALTIMORE over Philadelphia 23-17
5--Cincinnati (+) over PITTSBURGH 17-22
5--TENNESSEE over ny jets 27-17

Write-ups coming later...
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Nelly's Greensheet
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->RATING 5 ARKANSAS (+1½) over Mississippi State
RATING 4 VANDERBILT (-3) over Tennessee
RATING 3 NORTH CAROLINA (-11) over NC State
RATING 2 MISSISSIPPI (+5½) over Lsu
RATING 2 DUKE (+17) over Virginia Tech
RATING 1 UTEP (+15) over Houston
RATING 1 FLORIDA INTL (-6) over UL-Monroe
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2008
Northern Illinois (-4) KENT STATE 6:00 PM
NIU dominated the yardage in this match-up last season but just
won narrowly in a tight game at home. With two games remaining
the Huskies still have a shot at making a bowl trip this year, a nice
rebound after going 2-10 last year. Both teams enter this game
coming off wild midweek games last week, with Kent winning by
three and Northern Illinois falling by three. Northern Illinois owns
some of the best defensive numbers in the conference but the
Huskies have also faced one of the weakest schedules in the nation.
Kent rushes for 232 yards per game and the ground attack should
give the Flashes the opportunity for a home win. KENT BY 3
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2008
Ball State (-7) CENTRAL MICHIGAN 6:00 PM
The quest for an undefeated season continues for Ball State and
this is likely the toughest hurdle. Central Michigan has been the
MAC champion each of the last two years and although the
Cardinals are getting much more attention nationally Central
Michigan is undefeated in conference play. The Chippewas beat Ball
State 58-38 last season on the road, posting 658 yards of offense.
Ball State is allowing just 15 points per game this season but the
Cardinals have just one win over a team with a winning record,
having faced one of the weakest schedules in the nation. Central
Michigan is still in charge of the MAC and can deliver the crus hing
upset having gone 12-3 ATS in the last 15 home games. CM BY 3
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2008
GEORGIA TECH (-4) Miami, FL 6:45 PM
The Hurricanes are back in the national rankings having won five
consecutive games. These teams lead the ACC Atlantic with four
wins each and Miami could take control of the division with a victory
this week. The Yellow Jackets were off last week and may be in a
better state as Miami enters this game coming off a huge primetime
win over Virginia Tech. Both defenses allow less than 290 yards per
game but the offensive edge should be clear with Georgia Tech,
rushing for 250 yards per game. The Georgia Tech offense is tough
to prepare for on a short week and Miami could be flat. GT BY 7
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2008
TOLEDO (-3) Miami, OH 6:00 PM
The Rockets have played four of the last five games on the road so
tough scheduling has been a factor in poor recent play. Miami
earned a narrow cover last week but the Redhawks own just one
win over a FBS team this year. Toledo owns a dominant home field
record in recent seasons going 24-10 ATS since 2002 and the
Rockets have been better at taking care of the ball as Miami has
one of the worst turnover margins in the nation. TOLEDO BY 10
BOWLING GREEN (-3½) Buffalo 5:00 PM
This is actually a very meaningful game in MAC play as the winner
could have the inside track for the MAC East title. If both teams
become bowl eligible there may not be a spot available for both
teams given the stronger trio of teams in the West division so the
loser of this game could get left out. Buffalo has had the more
productive offense by about 50 yards per game through a slightly
tougher schedule and the Bulls are on a roll with four consecutive
wins. This is a second straight week on the road for Buffalo but
Bowling Green is 3-12 ATS in the last 15 at home. BUFFALO BY 6
Fresno State (-2½) SAN JOSE STATE 8:30 PM
The Bulldogs have failed to cover in nine consecutive games yet still
receive line respect based on the high expectations to start the
season. It has been an up-and-down season for San Jose State but
the Spartans are bowl eligible and can close the season with a
winning record winning this final game. Last season Fresno State
won with a shutout 30-0 but it is tough to trust the Bulldogs given
how poorly they have done against the spread. The Fresno State
defense has been vulnerable and the Bulldogs have one of the
worst turnover margins in the nation, which has made the difference
in what looks like solid yardage numbers on the year. SJSU BY 3
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2008
TEMPLE (-10½) Eastern Michigan 12:00 PM
In an odd scheduling set-up Eastern Michigan has actually had three
weeks to prepare for this game having played last on November 1st.
The Eagles are allowing 32 points per game but the offense has
been productive this season, posting 384 yards per game on
average. Temple has one of the better defensive units in the MAC
and the scoring numbers on offense have improved as the schedule
has lightened, averaging over 24 points per game in the last five
games. Temple has covered in nine of the last 12 home games and
the long layoff may not be beneficial. TEMPLE BY 17
RUTGERS (-17) Army 11:00 AM
After a horrible start to the season Rutgers has now won four games
in a row in the Big East. Last week turnovers were a big help and
the offense is playing with much more confidence. The lack of a
running game is a concern for Rutgers and Army’s defense has
posted very solid numbers this season. Coming off a bye week Army
should be well prepared and Rutgers will allow Army’s rushing
attack to move the ball. Army has covered in six of the last seven
games and this is a tricky spot for the Scarlet Knights with a nonconference
game mixed in between key Big East match-ups. Look
for a competitive game in this battle of Knights. RUTGERS BY 13
Illinois (-2½) NORTHWESTERN 2:30 PM
Illinois can still reach bowl eligibility with a win in this final game but
it remains a very disappointing year after such a successful season
last year. Northwestern has been a great story with eight wins but
this could be a tough finale coming off a huge win at Michigan last
week. Illinois had over 500 yards of offense in a 41-22 win last year.
The Wildcats have not fared well in the home favorite role and
Illinois has faced a much higher caliber schedule this season. These
teams have similar numbers on defense but Illinois has been a
clearly superior offensive team. Northwestern has been fortunate to
win several close games and Illinois should have plenty of
motivation in this match-up. ILLINOIS BY 4
CINCINNATI (-4) Pittsburgh 6:00 PM
The Bearcats can essentially lock up the Big East title with a win in
this game but Pittsburgh has its own BCS hopes to work towards.
Cincinnati has never beat Pittsburgh and the Panthers have the
advantage of a bye week last week. Pittsburgh has been the
superior statistical team on both sides of the ball through a more
challenging schedule. The Bearcats have been a very strong home
team under Coach Kelly but Pittsburgh should enjoy a strong
rushing edge in this match-up. Cincinnati has managed to win
several close games but the Bearcats do not appear ready to take
the next step. Pittsburgh has won outright in all four road games this
season with wins at South Florida, Navy, and Notre Dame so the
Panthers can deliver in this big game. PITTSBURGH BY 6
WAKE FOREST (-2) Boston College 2:30 PM
The Demon Deacons have failed to cover in four of the last five
games but both teams remain in the thick of the ACC Atlantic race.
Boston College came through with a huge win over Florida State last
week and the Eagles have delivered back-to-back big wins over
prestigious programs. Both defenses have outstanding numbers on
the season but Wake Forest has thrived on turnovers, featuring one
of the best turnover margins in the nation. Wake Forest has played a
significantly tougher overall schedule and BC may be a bit
overvalued based on the big wins in nationally televised games the
past two weeks. Boston College won last season in this series to
open the season in a game that featured a combined total of 56
rushing yards on 51 attempts. WAKE FOREST BY 6
PURDUE (NL) Indiana 11:00 AM
Indiana beat Purdue last season to close the year but this is a much
tougher situation, facing a second straight road game and having
little to play for other than this rivalry. This will be the final game for
Purdue Coach Tiller and his players should provide a solid effort to
wrap up the season. The Boilers have played competitive games the
last four weeks despite just one win while Indiana has lost by a
combined score of 89-27 the last two weeks. Both teams have had a
lot of problems and dealt with inconsistent play and turnovers but
Purdue has had the more competitive defense and the Boilers can
take back this rivalry for a nice send-off. PURDUE BY 13
OHIO STATE (-20) Michigan 11:00 AM
This historic series has rarely seen a spread of double-digits let
alone a number this high. After being a huge game the past two
seasons in the national picture the implications are minimal this
season although Ohio State is still in good position for a potential atlarge
BCS bowl berth. Ohio State has one of the top scoring
defenses in the nation allowing fewer than 14 points per game. The
Buckeyes have averaged just 33 more yards per game than the
maligned Michigan offense and Ohio State has averaged just 22
points per game in home games against FBS teams. Michigan’s
defense has been decent this season and the Wolverines could
keep this game closer than the spread suggests. OHIO ST BY 14
VIRGINIA TECH (-17) Duke 4:30 PM
The Blue Devils are just 4-6 and bowl hopes that seemed realistic
early in the season are now a long shot but this has been a
competitive team. Duke is averaging 24 points per game, scoring
and producing more yardage than Virginia Tech this season. The
Hokies have a solid defense but the numbers have not been as
dominant as past seasons. Duke has played through a tougher
schedule and coming off the poor performance last week this could
be a bounce back effort. After winning 43-14 last season a much
clos er game should occur this season as Virginia Tech has not
proven that it can pull away from foes. VIRGINIA TECH BY 6
MARYLAND (-1½) Florida State 6:45 PM
The Terrapins are in control of the ACC Atlantic division but Florida
State can stay right in the race with a win this week. The Seminoles
came up empty last week and off-field issues certainly did not help
the cause. Maryland has defeated Florida State each of the last two
meetings at home and the Terps have not lost at home this season.
Maryland’s defense has superior scoring numbers in this match-up
despite the great yardage numbers from Florida State. Florida State
has played the weakest overall schedule of any team in the ACC
and the Seminoles are overvalued based on the program’s history
and the inflated statistics. After a tough homecoming loss and with
Florida on the schedule next week Florida State will likely have a
tough game here. MARYLAND BY 7
NORTH CAROLINA (-11) NC State 11:00 AM
The narrow loss for the Tar Heels last week has shaken up the
conference standings and there are indications that North Carolina
has been fortunate this season. UNC has allowed 348 yards per
game yet just 18 points per game thanks to one of the top turnover
margins in the nation. The numbers do not look good for NC State
but quietly the Wolfpack has put together a 7-2 ATS record on the
year including five consecutive covers, with outright wins the last two
weeks. Last year North Carolina had several chances to pull out the
win but fell just short in this series but UNC has owned this series
with ATS wins in eleven of the past 15 meetings . Look for the Tar
Heels to redeem a narrow loss from last season. UNC BY 21
KANSAS STATE (-10) Iowa State 2:30 PM
Iowa State has lost nine straight games after a 2-0 start to the year
and the Cyclones have covered just twice in Big 12 play. Kansas
State has now lost five in a row and both teams will close out very
disappointing years this week. Both teams allow over 450 yards per
game on defense while allowing over 35 points per game so this
could be a chance for both teams to move the ball with ease. The
Kansas State offense has been a bit more productive this season
and the players may put together a solid effort to play for their
coach’s last game. Kansas State is 9-2-1 ATS in the last twelve
games as home favorites and the favorite has covered in six of the
last eight in this series. KANSAS STATE BY 17
VANDERBILT (-3) Tennessee 11:30 AM
This line looks odd at first glance but it actually should probably be
much higher than it is based on the results this year. Vanderbilt has
played a superior schedule and clinched bowl eligibility last week
with a road upset. This might normally be a letdown spot but the
Commodores will have great focus for this rivalry. Both teams own
strong defensive numbers but Tennessee’s offense has scored 14
or fewer points in seven of the past eight games. The Volunteers
have had great S/U success in this series but it will be tough to get a
focused effort from Tennessee given how poorly the season has
gone and all the changes that will be taking place. Vanderbilt has
snapped the losing streak and can keep going. VANDY BY 17
MISSISSIPPI STATE (-1½) Arkansas 1:30 PM
Arkansas has had two weeks to prepare for this game and
Mississippi State could be a bit flat after playing close, but not close
enough with #1 Alabama last week. The Razorbacks have not lost
ATS since early October while the Bulldogs have now failed against
the number in four straight games. Arkansas could actually earn a
bowl trip with wins the next two weeks and this is a team that has
shown a lot of progress after struggling early in the year through the
rebuilding adjustment. Arkansas has scored at least 20 points in five
straight games, five points more than the average scored per game
by Mississippi State. Arkansas has faced one of the nation’s
toughest schedules and it is paying off. ARKANSAS BY 14
Akron (-2½) OHIO 2:30 PM
At 5-5 Akron is still mathematically alive for bowl eligibility and the
MAC East title but it is a long shot, particularly with both remaining
games away from home. Last week’s final home game was a
crushing loss fro the Zips and it might be tough to get a great
performance this week. Last year Akron scored 48 points against
Ohio so this will be a key game for the Bobcats, particularly coming
off a bye week. Ohio has lost several close games and could easily
have a superior record than the 2-8 mark they own so a solid finish
in the final two games is possibility. Ohio has much better numbers
on defense and this should be a good spot. OHIO BY 3
Colorado State (-2½) WYOMING 1:00 PM
This is the final game of the season for both teams and Colorado
State can get to 6-6 with a win, a solid first season for Coach
Fairchild. The Rams have played the toughest rated overall
schedule in the Mountain West so far but the Rams have not
covered in a road game this season. Wyoming put together a
season-making win over Tennessee two weeks ago but the
offensive production has been atrocious, averaging just 12 points
per game. Wyoming has also covered just once in the past ten
home games despite the perception of a strong home field edge.
The Rams have had a strong history in this rivalry and can keep the
Bronze Boot with a win in the finale. CSU BY 7
RICE (-8) Marshall 2:30 PM
The Owls are scoring over 40 points per game but the defense is
also allowing 470 yards per game. Rice has benefited from
turnovers this season to produce a 7-3 record and currently sit tied
on top of the C-USA West. Last season Rice lost to a then winless
Marshall team so this could be a solid revenge spot for the Owls.
After falling flat in a favorable homecoming spot last week it is tough
to trust a Marshall offense on the road, featuring a scoring average
of just 20 points per game. Rice has had solid success in the
favorite role the past two years and can keep pace in the division
standings with another win. Marshall should move the ball but it is
tough to envision Rice being slowed down. RICE BY 17
NOTRE DAME (-19½) Syracuse 1:30 PM
The Irish survived turnovers last week for a narrow win and cover
but Notre Dame has not performed well as a large favorite in recent
years. Syracuse really struggles against teams that run the ball well
but Notre Dame does not fit that category. Coming off a big rivalry
win and facing the USC game next week makes this an easy game
to overlook and Syracuse has put together several competitive
efforts this year. The Orange offense features the superior ground
game by a decent margin and this will be a much bigger game for
the underdog. Syracuse is a tough team to back especially with the
recent coaching change but Notre Dame does not take care of the
ball well enough to trust at this line. NOTRE DAME BY 13
Washington (-7½) WASHINGTON STATE 2:00 PM
Although this is a laughable match-up from the outside this serious
game for both teams with getting a win an important goal in two
horrible seasons. Washington has faced one of the toughest
schedules in the nation and injuries have decimated both teams at
incredible levels. Statistically the Huskies have been a little stronger
on both sides of the ball but they will play on the road in this rivalry.
Washington has won five of the last six in Pullman however and
there will be revenge motivation after a late score delivered a win for
the Cougars last season in Seattle. Washington State has been
shutout in three of the last four games and the Cougars have been
the worse team in this ugly match-up. WASHINGTON BY 10
TULSA (-28½) Tulane 2:00 PM
Tulsa got a little taste of its own medicine last week as Houston
hung 70 on the Golden Hurricane in a season where Tulsa has
scored over 50 five times. Turnovers were the problem last week but
the defense has been surrendering big numbers all season long.
Tulane has covered in three out of four road games this season but
the defensive numbers for the Green Wave have gone downhill fast
after a strong start to the year. Tulsa has covered in seven of the
last eight as double-digit favorites but since losing the undefeated
run the focus may never get back to the same level. Tulsa is tough
to go against but it makes sense at this price. TULSA BY 21
OKLAHOMA (-6½) Texas Tech 7:00 PM
Bye weeks have added to the build-up of this huge game on the
national picture. A lot of scenarios will be changed by this outcome
and the winner will be in the driver’s seat to the BCS title game as
an Oklahoma victory plus a win next week likely gives the Sooners
the tiebreaker edge in a potential 3-way tie in the Big 12 South.
Texas Tech actually beat Oklahoma last season at home and the
home team has won eight of the last ten in this series. The Sooners
are 12-3 in the last 15 games as home favorites and Oklahoma
owns the top turnover margin in the nation. Both defenses have
been marginal this season and the difference between these teams
is the Texas game which both games could have gone either way.
Texas Tech played that game at home and has had the more
favorable schedule so Oklahoma may be able to ruin the perfect
season dreams and set-up a mess in the BCS. OKLAHOMA BY 7
PENN STATE (-14½) Michigan State 2:30 PM
A Rose Bowl spot is on the line here but these teams have arrived at
6-1 in the Big Ten in very different ways. The Spartans played a
favorable conference slate with the toughest games at home and it
took several very narrow wins to get through it. In games against
similar opponents Penn State appears much stronger in many of
those games. Last year Penn State led 24-7 in the second half but
surrendered the game to Michigan State with a furious rally so there
will be added motivation this week. Statistically Penn State is about
90 yards superior on both sides of the ball and the bye week
advantage should not make up for the mismatch. Look for Penn
State to dominate this game and seal the Big Ten title. PSU BY 21
Clemson (-3) VIRGINIA 11:00 AM
The Cavaliers have faced one of the toughest schedules in the
nation and a bye week should help the team recover after back-toback
losses. Against a turnover prone offense Virginia’s defense
should be very effective and last week’s solid win against Duke
should not carry too much weight for the Tigers. Clemson lost 30-10
the last meeting in Charlottesville and the Cavaliers own a very solid
home field edge. Neither of these teams should have much success
on the ground and this is a critical game for two 5-5 teams that will
face very challenging games next week. VIRIGNIA BY 7
TCU (-18) Air Force 2:30 PM
TCU had a bye week last week but it will be tough to recover from
the crushing loss against Utah. Air Force meanwhile also faced a
tough defeat at home last week. The Falcons have an impressive
record but few impressive wins as the quality of the Mountain West
after the top teams has not been strong this year. TCU’s run
defense has the best numbers in the nation and Air Force will have
a lot of problems moving the ball in this match-up. The Horned
Frogs are 13-3 in the last 16 games as home favorites and this
should be a favorable match-up for the TCU offense to have
success running the ball. TCU BY 21
CALIFORNIA (-9) Stanford 2:30 PM
Losses the last two weeks have been very disappointing for
California while losses the last two weeks have been encouraging
for Stanford. The Cardinal posted very strong numbers against
USC’s defense and also took Oregon down to the wire on the road
meaning that the program has taken a big step after being beaten
badly in many games against top teams in recent years. Stanford
needs one more win for bowl eligibility and this will be a much more
meaningful game for the Cardinal despite the rivalry. Stanford
rushes for 206 yards per game and the Cal offense has not been
nearly as productive as many previous Bears teams. Cal has had
success at home but this is likely a tough spot after missing in big
games the past two weeks. CALIFORNIA BY 3
Louisiana Tech (-7) NEW MEXICO STATE 3:00 PM
New Mexico State has lost five straight games while Louisiana Tech
has played its way into bowl position with wins in four of the last five
games. The Bulldogs have been a terrible road team with a 6-14
ATS record in the last 20 away from home and just one S/U and
ATS win this season. Louisiana Tech won 22-21 last season,
making up a big deficit, so this will be a key game for the underdog
Aggies as they wrap up their home schedule. New Mexico State
can post big numbers in the air and both defenses have had
problems this season with similarly mediocre numbers. NMS BY 3
Boise State (-6) NEVADA 3:00 PM
Last season these teams played an incredible game with Boise
State winning 69-67 in four overtimes. Boise State has dominated
this series with covers in seven of the last eight meetings but
Nevada enters this game with some momentum. Nevada rushes for
325 yards per game, the top numbers in the country on the ground,
featuring a far more productive offense in this match-up. Boise State
is allowing just ten points per game however and no WAC opponent
has scored more than 16 points against the Broncos. Boise State
has a lot to play for as a BCS bowl is still possible with some help
and the Broncos can clinch the WAC title this week. BOISE BY 13
East Carolina (-7) UAB 6:00 PM
East Carolina is 1-7 ATS in the last eight games and the offense has
really struggled against mediocre teams the last three weeks. UAB
enters this game off a big win and the Blazers have now won two of
the last three games. Defense has been a big problem for UAB but
the offense has been able to move the ball effectively. UAB has
faced one of the weakest schedules in the nation and still allowed
big numbers so another solid performance is unlikely this week. This
will be the third week in a row on the road for UAB and last week’s
loss should be a wake-up call for a Pirates team that is still in
position to win the C-USA East division. EAST CAROLINA BY 14
HOUSTON (-15) Utep 2:30 PM
After posting 70 against Tulsa last week Houston will be a bit
overvalued this week and the Cougars face a solid Miners squad
that has won two in a row. UTEP could still make a bowl game,
currently sitting at 5-5 and the Miners have had a lot of success
creating turnovers in recent games to mask a faulty defense.
Houston’s passing offense can post huge numbers but last week’s
win featured five turnovers to pad the numbers. Looking ahead to
next week’s 1st place showdown with city rival Rice might be a
possibility for Houston here and UTEP can be a dangerous
underdog with solid numbers under Coach Price. Houston is just 3-9
in the last twelve games as favorites. HOUSTON BY 6
UTAH (-6½) Byu 5:00 PM
One game separates Utah from a BCS bowl spot and it matches up
two city rivals for a huge Mountain West season finale. Ten of the
last eleven meetings have been decided by seven points or less and
this will also be a revenge game for Utah after a wild finish led to
BYU winning and covering last season. Utah owns the far more
impressive resume as early season Pac-10 wins no longer look
impressive for the Cougars. BYU features the more productive
offense but the Utes have far better numbers on defense for the
year. The series history dictates a competitive game but Utah should
have several serious advantages in this match-up. Look for Utah to
deliver the victory here as BYU has not been near the level of play
that took them to great success last season. The perfect season can
happen and the Utes will not disappoint. UTAH BY 10
Iowa (-5) MINNESOTA 6:00 PM
The Gophers played a competitive game last week but suffered a
third straight loss. The lack of a running game and the loss of WR
Decker make moving the ball more difficult and the easy schedule
appears to have been a big factor in the hot start to the season.
Iowa is in solid bowl position at 7-4 and the Hawkeyers have won
four of the last five after starting the Big Ten season 0-2. Iowa is
giving up just 14 points per game with significant advantages on
defense versus Minnesota and the offense has actually been more
productive as well. Iowa has owned this series, covering in 12 of 15
since 1993 and it will be tough for the Gophers to rebound after
having the season fall apart the last three weeks. IOWA BY 10
ARIZONA (-3) Oregon State 6:00 PM
The Beavers keep rolling in the Pac-10 as special teams delivered in
last week’s win. Oregon State faces two tough games the next two
weeks but the Beavers can win the conference. Oregon State has
played through a much tougher schedule than Arizona and the
Wildcats have just one win against a quality team this season.
Although Arizona has covered in seven consecutive home games
Oregon State has dominated this series, covering in eight of the past
nine meetings. Arizona’s offense has inflated numbers from a few
blowout wins and Oregon State should have the defensive edge in
this match-up. The Beavers might face a tough game here but
should be able to pull it out. OREGON STATE BY 7
West Virginia (-7) LOUISVILLE 11:00 AM
West Virginia is still in the hunt for the Big East title with just one
conference loss and this could be tricky game in a series that has
been very close the past three years. Louisville features one of the
better statistical run defenses in the nation but it is in part a factor of
a poor pass defense. The Cardinals can still play for bowl eligibility
but there are few impressive wins on the resume. Last week the
Cardinals played a very tight game with division leader Cincinnati,
the same result that West Virginia had before the bye week. West
Virginia is allowing just 16 points per game but the offense has not
lived up to expectations. This could be a tough game for the
Mountaineers as Louisville looks to rebound. West Virginia has
disappointed often this season. WV BY 4
MEMPHIS (-4) Central Florida 1:00 PM
A solid Memphis team was crushed in a blowout last year against
Central Michigan, falling behind 49-0 at one point. A bye week has
allowed extra time for this revenge spot and Central Florida has
produced horrible offensive numbers this season. Turnovers gave
UCF a win last week and the Knights are better than the record
indicates but this is a good spot for Memphis, still in need of another
win for a shot at a bowl game. The Tigers are also in the thick of the
division race so this will be a critical game for the Tigers while
Central Florida is on the road for the second consecutive week.
Memphis lacks a quality defense but the offense can carry the team
this week for a critical win. MEMPHIS BY 9
Unlv (-13) SAN DIEGO STATE 7:00 PM
UNLV could make it to 6-6 with a win this week despite losing five in
a row at one point. San Diego State has now lost seven straight
games, falling to 1-10 on the year. The Aztecs allow 267 yards per
game on the ground while rushing for just 71 yards per game on
offense. UNLV allows close to 32 points per game so the Aztecs will
have some opportunities in this match-up. San Diego State has
faced a tougher schedule and UNLV has been a horrible road team
in recent years. It is tough to back San Diego State but UNLV is not
a team that should lay points on the road. UNLV BY 6
LSU (-5½) Mississippi 2:30 PM
Ole Miss gained bowl eligibility last week in a strong turnaround
season. LSU had an incredible rally last week to avoid an upset but
the Tigers have taken a major step back this season. LSU is 1-6
ATS in the last seven games and 1-10 ATS in the last eleven home
games. Mississippi has considerable credibility as the lone team to
beat Florida this season and the Rebels also played Alabama very
tough. Mississippi is 9-2 ATS the last eleven meetings in this series
and statistically these teams look very similar with Ole Miss actually
having a slight edge on defense. LSU had been unreliable and
Mississippi appears to be gaining momentum with three straight
wins including an abs olute blowout last week. OLE MISS BY 10
HAWAII (-23) Idaho 10:05 PM
The Warriors sit at 5-5 and need to keep winning to earn a bowl
spot, playing 13-game schedule. The Vandals enter this game after
facing Boise State so the long travel could take an even greater toll.
Coach McMackin has Idaho ties so this is a big game for his staff.
Quietly Hawaii has covered in five of the past six games and the
improvement has been solid in the rebuilding program. Idaho has
failed against the spread in four straight meetings in this series and
Idaho has allowed 40 points or more in eight games this season.
The Hawaii offense should have a big day in this match-up and the
Warriors can take the next step. HAWAII BY 27
ARKANSAS STATE (NL) Florida Atlantic 4:00 PM
Last season’s Sun Belt champion Florida Atlantic has now won four
straight games after a rough start to the season and the Owls face
an Arkansas State team they narrowly beat last year 34-31.
Arkansas State has seen a promising season disappear with losses
in three consecutive games. The Red Wolves have failed against
the spread in five straight games and are just 4-9 ATS in the last 13
home games. Arkansas State features a solid running game
averaging 209 yards per game but last season the unit posted just
256 total yards in this match-up. The Owl offense is on a roll right
now with big numbers in four straight games and the veteran squad
can stay in contention in the Sun Belt. FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 3
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-6) UL-Monroe 6:00 PM
The FIU Panthers have covered in six of the last seven games to put
together a respectable season through one of the toughest
schedules of all Sun Belt teams. The Panthers have had two weeks
to prepare for this game and this is a good situation for another win.
Florida International is 6-2 ATS in the last eight home games and
UL-Monroe was humiliated in a blowout loss last week. Defense has
been very solid for FIU in Sun Belt play while in contrast UL-Monroe
is allowing 452 yards per game. Look for the Panthers to keep
delivering in a pleasant surprise season. UL-Monroe is facing a third
consecutive road games this week. FIU BY 17
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (NL) North Texas 6:00 PM
North Texas has just one win on the season and the defense is
allowing 490 yards per game. The Mean Green has also been
plagued by turnovers, losing the turnover battle by 1½ per game on
average. This could be a high scoring game between two passing
offenses as Middle Tennessee State is passing for 240 yards per
game and will find a lot of space to throw this week. The Blue
Raiders won 48-28 in this series last season and 35-0 the last time
these teams played in Murfreesboro. Despite decent production,
Middle Tennessee State has not scored more than 24 points in any
game this season so North Texas may find a way to stay within this
elevated spread. MTSU BY 10
TROY (-7½) UL-Lafayette 6:00 PM
Troy nearly pulled off a great upset last week and blowing a huge
lead at LSU should take a toll heading into this critical Sun Belt
match-up. UL-Lafayette and Troy are tied at 4-1 in the conference
standings and the Ragin’ Cajuns need to snap back after back-toback
losses the past two weeks. Troy won 48-31 last season in this
series and this has typically been a high scoring series. ULLafayette
is 6-2 in the last eight road games and with a rushing
average of 283 yards per game the Cajuns are a dangerous matchup.
The Troy defense has been vulnerable this season and this is
going to be a tough spot after such a great effort last week. Look for
UL-Lafayette to take charge in the Sun Belt. UL-L BY 3
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2008
SOUTH FLORIDA (-3) Connecticut 7:00 PM
The Bulls have now lost three in a row after turnovers derailed any
hopes last week. Connecticut beat South Florida last season 22-15
despite being soundly out-gained. Connecticut rushes for 209 yards
per game but South Florida owns one of the best run defenses in
the nation if properly motivated. South Florida allowed well over
double its season average for points allowed last week with a sloppy
offensive performance setting up easy scores and this team has the
talent, but the motivation is suspect at this point in the year.
Connecticut is well coached but now faces a second straight road
game. This line is now where it should be based on recent results
but South Florida can bounce back. USF BY 7

RATING 5 NEW ENGLAND (-1) over Miami
RATING 4 MINNESOTA (+1) over Jacksonville
RATING 3 NY GIANTS (-3½) over Arizona
RATING 2 INDIANAPOLIS (+3) over San Diego
RATING 1 BALTIMORE (-1) over Philadelphia
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, lines are subject to change
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2008
PITTSBURGH (-10) Cincinnati (36) 7:15 PM
The Steelers dominated statistically last week but still needed a late
score for the victory. Pittsburgh backers were robbed of a cover last
week in a crazy final play and officiating decision. The Steelers get a
break this week in a brutal second half schedule but Cincinnati has
covered the past two games with a win and a tie against solid
competition. The first meeting was a blowout between these teams but
that game was actually much closer than the final margin as Pittsburgh
padded the lead with late scores. Double-digit favorites continue lose
each week. STEELERS BY 7
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2008
CLEVELAND (NL) Houston 12:00 PM
The Browns face a short week after the Monday night game but they
catch a fading Texans squad, losers of three straight. Houston led
almost the entire way last week but once again fell victim to a late Colts
rally. The Browns should be able to move the ball in this match-up but
stopping a highly productive Texans offense might be a problem.
Houston is averaging 370 yards per game and the Browns are hard to
trust as favorites. TEXANS BY 3
Buffalo (NL) KANSAS CITY 12:00 PM
The Chiefs have become a serious threat despite just one win on the
season. QB Thigpen has greatly improved the offense and Kansas City
has covered in three of the last four games. Buffalo faced a Monday
night game on the heels of a three- game losing streak and the Bills need
to get some momentum to even consider the playoffs as four of the next
five games are away from home. Look for the Chiefs to give a solid effort
but Kansas City has not been able to close games out. BILLS BY 7
TENNESSEE (-6) New York Jets (40) 12:00 PM
The Titans moved to 10-0 and the last four teams to reach 10-0 also
made it to 11-0. The Titans have needed strong second halves in recent
games for wins but this team appears designed to win close games and
to take over in the 4th quarter. The Jets have won six of the last seven
games to take over the AFC East lead but the schedule has been
extremely light. This could be a wake-up call for a Jets squad that has
caught a lot of breaks. TITANS BY 10
New England (-1) MIAMI (42) 12:00 PM
The Patriots could not pull out a win last week and all of a sudden Miami
is tied with New England at 6-4. The Patriots were soundly defeated in
the first meeting between these teams and Miami has been very
unimpressive in narrow wins against bad teams in recent weeks. New
England has not lost consecutive games all season long and Miami is
just 3-11 ATS in the last 14 home games with a very limited home field
edge. Miami has an easy schedule ahead and could still make a playoff
push the Patriots tend to deliver in these types of games. PATS BY 13
DALLAS (NL) San Francisco 12:00 PM
The Cowboys came up with a huge win last week in a make-or-break
contest while San Francisco has also shown much more fight the past
two weeks. Dallas is 4-0 S/U at home this season and four of the next
five games are at home so Dallas can get back on track in the wild card
chase. San Francisco was out-gained last week despite the convincing
scoring margin and turnovers continue to be a big problem even after
the QB change. Look for Dallas to deliver. COWBOYS BY 14
Tampa Bay (-9) DETROIT (41) 12:00 PM
0-16 is starting to look more real for the Lions although Detroit has
covered in four of the past six games. The Lions continue to find ways to
lose and four turnovers were added in last week’s loss. Detroit is
allowing 30.8 points per game while Tampa Bay allows just 16 points per
game. Tampa Bay has lost three of five road games this year but the
Lions are not going to have much support or motivation at home as this
dreadful season continues. BUCS BY 14
BALTIMORE (-1) Philadelphia (39) 12:00 PM
The league’s best run defense heading into last week was destroyed on
the ground in an ugly loss last week. The Ravens made a comeback
charge and moved the ball effectively but an interception for a
touchdown killed any chances. The Baltimore offense has been more
productive than most realize and the Ravens played five of the last six
on the road. Philadelphia’s season may have crashed with last week’s
tie and the Ravens can bounce back. RAVENS BY 6
Chicago (NL) ST. LOUIS 12:00 PM
The Bears had one of the top run defenses in the league heading into
last week and had just shut Tennessee’s excellent ground game but one
of the worst rushing teams in the NFL, Green Bay exploded for 200
yards. St. Louis has had no success without RB Jackson this season
and the Rams have now lost four in a row, equaling the losing streak to
start the season Chicago needs to rebound after back-to-back losses
and the division title up for grabs. Look for the Bears to bounce back and
pick up a key win against Coach Smith’s old team. BEARS BY 10
JACKSONVILLE (-1) Minnesota (39) 12:00 PM
The Jaguars poured a lot into last week’s game and played great early
but it will be a tough loss to bounce back from. Jacksonville has
essentially eliminated itself from playoff contention and with the injuries
on the lines this will be a tough match-up against a physical Minnesota
team. The Vikings have not had great success on the road the running
game should provide an edge in this game. Minnesota is one of the top
rushing teams in the league as well as one of the toughest defenses
against the run. VIKINGS BY 6
ATLANTA (-1) Carolina (42½) 3:15 PM
The Falcons came up short in a winnable home game last week and one
loss changes the tone for the rising team. Carolina has not been terribly
impressive of late but the Panthers have now won four consecutive
games. Both Carolina losses came on the road this season and this will
be a revenge game for the Falcons after losing earlier this year in
Charlotte. Carolina’s pass defense has been very good but stopping
Atlanta’s running game may be difficult. FALCONS BY 4
DENVER (-10) Oakland (42½) 3:05 PM
The Broncos have been upset winners the past two weeks and Denver
at 6-4 is in a commanding position in the AFC West with a two game
lead over the Chargers. Denver has been terrible defensively but the
offense has been able to carry the team and deliver late game
performances. Oakland has played respectable defense in recent weeks
and look to redeem the opening week loss. BRONCOS BY 6
Washington (NL) SEATTLE 3:15 PM
The Redskins failed in last week’s big game and now must travel clear
across the country. These teams met in the playoffs last year at this
stadium but the fortunes for the Seahawks have changed drastically this
year. QB Hasselbeck’s return was not a success as Seattle continued to
have turnover problems and Washington is capable of a revenge effort
to snap a two-game losing streak. Washington can overcome the long
travel having gone 3-1 on the road. WASHINGTON BY 10
New York Giants (-3½) ARIZONA (48½) 3:15 PM
The Giants delivered another impressive win last week and have taken
complete control of the NFC. Arizona owns an even larger division lead
and if the Cardinals want to legitimize themselves this is the opportunity.
Arizona has not lost at home this season and the Cardinals are 6-2 in
the last eight games as home underdogs. The Giants are tough to go
against right now even facing long travel. Arizona has struggled the last
two weeks and makes far more mistakes. GIANTS BY 7
SAN DIEGO (-3) Indianapolis (50½) 7:15 PM
Many expected these teams to be Super Bowl threats but both teams
will be fighting for their playoff lives in the coming weeks. San Diego
upset Indianapolis in the playoffs last season and this will be a key game
for the Colts, who have quietly won three straight games. San Diego has
struggled defensively, allowing nearly 23 points per game and the Colts
are starting to show improvement on defense. The Chargers have good
numbers at home but continue to be overvalued. COLTS BY 3
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2008
NEW ORLEANS (-3) Green Bay (52½) 7:35 PM
The Packers had a great game plan last week and finally were able to
run the ball. Green Bay has five losses but all came against teams that
are .500 or better. The Saints have not won consecutive games all
season long but this will be the first home since mid-October for New
Orleans. The Saints have not had success in the home favorite role
Green Bay ’s defense continues to make big plays. A lot of points could
be scored here and the dog makes sense. PACKERS BY 4
<!-- / message -->
 

New member
Joined
Aug 29, 2008
Messages
122
Tokens
Pointwise...

College Write-ups...

Ball State 34 - CENTRAL MICHIGAN 20 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Perfect & 14th
ranked Cards just keep on doing it, behind Davis' leadership (20/6), & running of
Lewis (1,273 yds). Chips in off blowing a 24-pt lead, before prevailing in OT,
despite 241-80 RY edge. LeFevour & Co provide quality opposition, but BSt call.

THURSDAY
Miami-Florida 24 - GEORGIA TECH 20 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- No breathing room in
'Cane games, with 6 of last 7 decided by TD or less. Now in atop ACC Coastal,
after holding Va & VaTech to 77 & 78 RYs, & in possession of land's 13th best "D".
Also note visitor is 7-1 ATS in UM games by 64 pts. Tech: 2,079-1,021 RY edge
in lined games, but only covers since 10/4 have come by 2 & ½ pts (-35½ last 4).

FRIDAY
Miami-Ohio 27 - TOLEDO 23 - (7:00) -- Pair of 2-8 squads. Rockets covered in
final 3:42 LW, but 4 straight losses, & they've allowed >30 pts 15 times since
LY. 'Hawks stayed with BallSt until late going, which pushed dog edge in MU
games to 17-5 ATS. Can't run (#116) but QB Raudabauch may provide edge.

Buffalo 31- BOWLING GREEN 24 - (7:00) -- Balance! Check 224 RYs, 252
PYs in Bulls' OT win at Akron. UB: 33 ppg last 5 behind Willy (18/4) & Starks
(164 RYpg last 2). Check 17½ minute edge vs Zips. BG can't run, nor contain
the run, so it's up to Sheehan, who had 2 TD passes yr ago. Not enough now.

Fresno State 26 - SAN JOSE STATE 23 - (9:30 - ESPN2) -- Impossible to step
out with either squad. Bulldogs bowl eligible, despite 9 straight ATS losses,
allowing 30 ppg in those 9. But Spartans an astounding 550-7 RY deficit last
2 wks, with QB Reed their only "O". Are 0-4 ATS lately, by 57 pts. We pass.

SATURDAY
TEMPLE 31 - Eastern Michigan 21 - (1:00) -- Three fumbles killed Owls in tite
41-38 loss to Kent. Ten TOs in their last 3 losses, & have allowed 622 RYs last
2 games, after holding previous 4 foes to 57 RYpg. Opposite for EM, which
has decent run "D" last 2, but mauled prior to that. Plus 24 pts ATS on MAC rd.

RUTGERS 48 - Army 24 - (12:00) -- From 1-5 start to 5-5 currently for smoking
Scarlets, who've covered 6 straight, the last 3 by 75 pts, behind 12 Teel TD
throws. But Cadets also profitable, with 6-1 ATS run, by 89½ pts, with Mooney
motoring for 994 RYs last 6. But Army was massacred yr ago (Wise Points).

Illinois 24 - NORTHWESTERN 23 - (3:30) -- Illini could become 1st team since
'65 (Michigan) to follow Rose Bowl campaign with losing record. Rank 15th on
"O", but just not doing it. 'Cats 8-3 SU, but in off 127 & 122 RY deficits. Note
chalk covering by 15, 18, & 23 pts in NW BigTen hosters TY. Just not involved.

CINCINNATI 31 - Pittsburgh 30 - (7:00) -- We rarely stray from the dog when
Pitt takes the field (21-5 ATS), so why not another? Only 39 RYs for McCoy vs
L'Ville (5 takeaways), but note 762 yds previous 5, & Pitt at 35.5 ppg last 6. UC
in control of BigEast & BCS destiny, but still a bit iffy, overland. Call this tight.

WAKE FOREST 17 - Boston College 15 - (3:30) -- Just 11 ppg for Deacons in
5 of last 7 outings. Not much, overland (<113 yds 6 times TY), but a decent
"D", & Skinner sporadically productive. Eagle "D" has 10 INTs last 3 wks, but
also can't run (97 ypg 5 games previous to LW). Call defensive struggle here.

PURDUE 33 - Indiana 13 - (12:00) -- Matchup of 3-8 squads. Chance for Tiller
to go out with decent showing, despite failing to top 7 pts 4 of last 7. Indy minus
120 pts ATS last 11 games, allowing 34+ pts 7 of last 9. Last 2 weeks: 18 FDs,
a 625-256 RY deficit, as well as a 89-17 pt deficit. Series host the way to go.

OHIO STATE 31 - Michigan 17 - (12:00 - ABC) -- First-ever 8-loss season for
Wolverines, who rank 95th in rushing "D". But note a 413-142 RY edge past 2
wks, while covering their last RG by 30½ pts. Bucks: 40 ppg last 3 RGs, but
just 11 ppg in last 2 HGs, with the visitor covering the last eight OSU games .
Wells: 140, 143 RYs last 2 wks, & Bucks own 7th best "D". But Michigan call.

VIRGINIA TECH 34 - Duke 7 - (5:30) -- Obvious that Devils have run out of gas.
A 300-yd deficit at Clemson; 86 RYpg last 8 games; & pair of 14-pt ATS losses
last 2 wks. Nearly a 200-RY drop in a week for the Hokies (Evans: from 254 to
43), but still formidable, defensively, & have feasted on the Imps (Wise Points).

Florida State 22 - MARYLAND 20 - (7:45) -- Bowden suspended 5 WRs in loss
to BC (3 INTs), thus tipping former balance. Check 13 TOs in 'Noles 3 losses.
Terps in off taking UNC in final 1:42 (8:42 drive), coming from 285-RY deficit to
120-RY edge in a week. Dog is now plus 142½ pts ATS in Maryland games.

NORTH CAROLINA 26 - North Carolina State 24 - (12:00) -- 'Pack keeps on
doing it: 5 straight covers, with Wilson at 11 TD passes last 6. Check 94 & 98
RYs allowed last 2, altho NCSt not an overland giant. Tars suddenly being had,
ceding 261 RYpg last 2, while posting only 13 & 11 FDs. Points are the play.

KANSAS STATE 38 - Iowa State 30 - (3:30) -- Yet another dilemma. Sieve "D"
'Cats have allowed 58, 58, 56 pts in last 3 HGs, & in off 610-247 yd deficit
hosting Nebraska. But check 9 straight losses for Cycs, allowing 52 ppg in
those 9. Currently on a 1-5 ATS slide by 73 pts, but not bad, stat-wise, last 3.

VANDERBILT 20 - Tennessee 10 - (12:30) -- Hooray! Vandy now bowl eligible
for 1st time in 26 years. Nickson: 3 TD passes, & 118 RYs in solid upset of
Kentucky (1st game above 14 pts since Sept 20), & now +61 pts ATS this yr.
Vols sinking fast: 3 straight losses, 63 RYpg last 6, & Fullmer playing out string.

MISSISSIPPI STATE 22 - Arkansas 19 - (2:30) -- Host series, so we meekly go
along. Bulldogs let us down LW, as 7-5 lead lead in 2nd, turned into 32-7 loss.
Killed by the punt return. In Tide/OleMiss sandwich, & not much "O". But solid
"D". Hogs ceding 34 ppg in last 14 lined tilts, with just 50 & RYs last 2 games.

Akron 38 - OHIO U 20 - (3:30) -- Bobcats in search of an offense, managing only
11 ppg in their last 3 outings, while posting only 71 RYpg in those 3. Zips just
the opposite, with 42, 47, 40 pts in their last 3 tilts, with "balance" their byword.
Jacquemain (5 TDs last 2) & Kennedy (1,047 RYs) lead this rather comfy win.

WYOMING 24 - Colorado State 20 - (2:00) -- Nearly 3 straight covers for the
'Boys (232 RYpg in those 3, with a decent run "D"). Led UNLV in the 4th, &
covered their last HG by 19½ pts. Host team is now on an 11-0 ATS run in
Ram contests, & CSt is allowing 40 ppg away this season. That's enuff for us.

RICE 45 - Marshall 17 - (3:30) -- Eliminate Texas, & the Owls are averaging 41
ppg this year. Check Clement with 23 TD passes past 6 games, & a brilliant
32/6 for the season, with 17 TD catches for Dillard. Herd: 17 pts or less in 7
games thus far, in & off managing just 8 FDs in loss to previously 2-7 CentFla.

NOTRE DAME 38 - Syracuse 10 - (2:30 - NBC) -- Incredibly, the Irish nearly
squandered 20-pt lead in final 1:39, in squeaking win over Navy. Have a 10-1
TO deficit last 2 wks, with 6 INTs from Clausin. But check allowing only 24
FDs combined, to BC & Navy. 'Cuse: 7, 8 FDs; 168, 147 yds last 2 wks. Rout!

Washington 34 - WASHINGTON STATE 27 - (3:00 - FSN) -- Now or never for
Huskies, who stand at 0-10 SU (1-9 ATS), allowing 42 ppg in their last 12 tilts.
But check amazing 524-91 pt deficit for Coogs in lined games TY. Two straight
covers, but still minus 197 pts ATS for the season. Means something to them.\

TULSA 66 - Tulane 13 - (3:00) -- Five TOs, along with allowing TDs on INT & KO
returns, in 70-30 'Cane destruction at hands of Houston. Oh, and a 641-yd "D"
effort. But overwhelming bounceback assured, in light of decimated Wave
woes. Just 67 RYpg last 4 (40-16 ppg deficit), & minus 118 pts last 7 games!

Texas Tech 48 - OKLAHOMA 45 - (8:00) -- This one should take its place among
all-time classic shootouts. No punts in Tech's annihilation of OkieSt. Check 69
FDs & 1,208 yds in Raiders' wins over Texas & OklaSt, & >100 RYs in all 10
games, with Harrell now at a stunning 36/5. Sooners? Try 51 ppg in their last
11 outings (58 ppg last 4). Try Bradford at a matching 38/6. And try balanced
328 RYs, 325 PYs in last outing. But also allowing 34 ppg last 5 games. Tech!

PENN STATE 41 - Michigan State 17 - (3:30) -- A win here, & the Lions are Big
10 champs. Have a combined pt edge of 433-131 thus far, behind superbly
balanced "O", & 5th ranked "D". Let us down with 1st-half walk-thru vs Indy,
but focused here. Spartans need it for share of title, but revenge rears head.

VIRGINIA 24 - Clemson 22 - (12:00) -- All the earmarks of a normal ACC nailbiter,
with neither anything special (both 5-5 SU). Cavs have been held under 18 pts
6 times this year, but are +75½ pts ATS in last 6 outings. Tigers are in off rare
impressive showing (326 PYs), but running game still a mystery. To the wire.

TCU 45 - Air Force 20 - (3:30) -- Rested Frogs were held scoreless in final 51:16
in 13-10 loss at Utah, despite 416-275 yd edge. Rolled, 41-7, off first setback,
& stand at +122½ pts ATS in last 15 games. 'Force had 5-game run snapped
by BYU, despite 323 RYs (28-10 2nd half deficit). But just 142 RYs in last RG.

Stanford 24 - CALIFORNIA 23 - (3:30) -- Card got cover vs USC on 18-yd pass
on final play, after Carroll "iced" would-be FG attempt. Ouch! Stanford stats
well (234 RYpg last 8, behind Gerhart), & just 11 pts from 9-0 ATS run. Bears:
173-27 & 194-85 RY deficits last 2 games (13, 11 FDs). Visiting series again.

Louisiana Tech 38 - NEW MEXICO STATE 24 - (4:00) -- Three straight wins for
Bulldogs, who came from 38-35 deficit, for 45-38 win over UtahSt. Check a
697-257 RY edge for Tech in last 3 games. Ags minus 9 RYs LW, & 21 RYpg
last 5 outings. Are minus 126½ ATS 10 of last 12, & Holbrook is in off 5 sacks.

BOISE STATE 41 - Nevada 38 - (4:00) -- Bucking either squad in this situation is
frightening. Boise +59 pts ATS away TY, (31 unanswered pts to wind up LW),
but 'Pack has >40 pts 7 times already, & has a 2,418-368 RY edge in its last 7
games, with Kaepernick in off 147 RY, 192 PY effort, & 388 Tuau RYs last 2.

East Carolina 23 - UAB 20 - (7:00) -- Blazers latest to take advantage of Tulane
& its injuries, in 41-24 win. But note ranking just 117th on "D" before that one,
& allowing 33 ppg in last 15 lined games. Pirates: just 2 TDs in their last 3
games. Can't run, but a decent "D". Dog is 9-2 ATS in ECU games by 118 pts.

HOUSTON 57 - Utep 44 - (3:30) -- Wow! Coogs' 70-30 rout of Tulsa made many
fans stand up & take notice, but their "O" has been super all yr. Check 3,492
yds in last 6 games, with Keenum's 6 TDs LW, upping his total for the year to
35/9. Miner QB Vittatoe: 25 TD passes last 7 tilts, & Utep +33 pts ATS last 2.

UTAH 38 - Byu 17 - (6:00) -- Win here nails down MWC title for Utes. No punts
in 63-14 rout of SDSt, with 5 Johnson TD passes in 1st half. Series is noted for
extremely tight games, but TCU comparison can't be dismissed. Coog QB Hall
now at 34/8, but check BYU allowing 33 ppg in last 3 RGs. Throw in revenge.

Iowa 27 - MINNESOTA 20 - (7:00) -- Three straight losses for Gophs, with a 317
RY deficit in those 3, altho they did put it to us in tight loss to Wisc (Weber: 3
TD passes). Are 0-2 ATS at home lately, by 44½ pts. Hawks in off 13-pt ATS
loss, despite 248-86 RY edge. Greene (1,585 RYs, 6.2 ypr) is the difference.

Oregon State 24 - ARIZONA 22 - (7:00) -- Two more wins for Beavs, & RoseBowl
is theirs for 1st time since '64. OSt: allowing 73 RYpg last 5 games; held Cal to
11 FDs; & Jacquizz at 1,233 RYs. And try +108 pts ATS last 7 games. 'Zona
not at its best in this type setup (Wise Points), but note 30 FDs & 527 yds at
Oregon, while ranking 14th in the land, defensively. But the Beavs own series.

West Virginia 23 - LOUISVILLE 20 - (12:00) -- Bye week came at right time for
Mounties, who've averaged just 4.2 & 2.3 ypr in their last 2 outings. Cards at
5-5, with nation's 7th ranked run "D" (only Syracuse ran on 'em). The host is
plus 57½ pts ATS in 'Ville's last 5 games, & Cards well remember LY's wrencher.

MEMPHIS 41 - Central Florida 17 - (2:00) -- Two straight wins have Tigs at 5-5,
so bowls are beckoning. Have huge score to settle, & with 306, 285 RYs last 2
(Steele: 301 yds), no time like the present, as Knights field worst "O" in land.
Four takeaways in CF's win over Marshall, but just 55 RYpg previous 4 games.

Unlv 38 - SAN DIEGO STATE 10 - (8:00) -- Season mercifully comes to close for
hapless Aztecs, who stand at 1-10 SU, with a 323-94 pt deficit in their last 7
games, while ranking 108th on "O" & 112th on "D". Vegas needs it for .500
campaign, & has topped 26 pts 7 of last 8 (TCU). Despite Rebs' lousy rd log.

LSU 30 - Mississippi 27 - (3:30) -- Bengals: 4 drainers in previous 5 games,
including LW's overcoming of a 31-3 deficit in the 3rd. Solid rush "D", but just
4-14 ATS lately, with visitor 21-7 ATS in LSU tilts. Rebs have been in every
game, & in off 59-0 blasting of Monroe (350 RYs, 3 Snead TDs). Rebels yell!

HAWAII 44 - Idaho 14 - (11:05) -- First of 3 HGs to wind up for now 5-5 'Bows.
Have allowed 31, 30, & 30 pts last 3 outings, but should take quick command
of a Vandal squad which has allowed 50 ppg in its 5 RGs to date. Sure, Idaho
has 215 or more RYs in 3 of its last 5 tilts, but 31-0 deficit windup LW says it all.

SUNDAY
SOUTH FLORIDA 27 - Connecticut 22 - (8:00) -- Amazingly, Bull QB Grothe
has tossed no less than 8 INTs in his last 3 games (all upset losses). Just 2
covers for SFla, which is minus 145 pts ATS in 9 of its last 10 games. UConn
came from a 5-0 TO deficit, to a 3-0 TO edge, & Brown now at 1,537 RYs. Tight.

TUESDAY
BALL STATE 37 - Western Michigan 24 - (8:00) -- Assuming Cards take CMich,
they will stand at a perfect 11-0 here. Plus 81½ pt ATS for the season, & at 37
ppg in their last 12 contests. WMich at 9 wins for just 3rd time its history, with
Hiller now at 33/6, & note covering last RG by 14½. But BSt keeps it going.

Navy 33 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 27 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Nearly a spectacular
comeback win for Mids at NoDame, but no cigar, & note only 11 FDs, along
with 100-yd deficit. Have allowed >26 pts 15 times since LY. NIU 3-0 ATS vs
non-MAC schools, but formerly sturdy "D" has allowed 39 ppg last 2 contests.

ADDED GAMES
Fla Atlantic 23 - ARKANSAS ST 20
FLA INTERN'L 27 - La-Monroe 24
MID TENN ST 46 - North Texas 10
TROY 23 - La-Lafayette 17
 

New member
Joined
Aug 29, 2008
Messages
122
Tokens
Pointwise NFL write-ups...

NEW YORK GIANTS over Arizona RATING: 3
OAKLAND over Denver RATING: 4
BALTIMORE over Philadelphia RATING: 4
CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh RATING: 5
TENNESSEE over New York Jets RATING: 5

THURSDAY
PITTSBURGH 22 - Cincinnati 17 - (8:15) -- Third straight HG for Pitt, which has
not exactly excelled as host. As a matter of fact, the visitor is on a 7-0 ATS run in
Steeler games. Parker is back (117 RYs), & check nearly 200-yd edge over the
Chargers, despite 1-pt win, in last 0:11. And no picks for Ben, after 8 in previous
3 wks. Bengals took Philly into OT, after missing winning 47-yd FG in final 0:08.
But just 1.9 ypr for league's 30th ranked run "O". Cincy 21-11 ATS away lately,
& 7-3 ATS on division road, but 2-18 ATS away vs .700> foes. Mild revenge call.

SUNDAY
CLEVELAND 27 - Houston 26 - (1:00) -- Another tough loss for the Texans,
after leading the Colts halfway thru the 3rd. Rosenfels has thrown for 5 INTs
the past 2 weeks, but bright spot has to be Slaton, who ran for 156 yds vs Indy
(11.1 ypr). That 33-27 loss, now has Houston allowing an average of 31.6 ppg
in its last 8 RGs. Browns are caught in a Buffalo(Monday)/Indy sandwich, &
Cleveland, thus far, has lost outright, in its first 2 chalk roles, with the dog 6-0
ATS in Brown games. Houston's 5th ranked "O" vs Cleveland's 27th. A take.

KANSAS CITY 23 - Buffalo 20 - (1:00) -- Six straight losses for the Chiefs, altho
Thigpen is a solid 5/1 the past 2 weeks. And RB Johnson is back in the fold,
even if he did fumble it twice vs the Saints. KC ranks 32nd & last in containing
the run, but allowed a respectable 103 RYs in loss to the Saints, & the Bills
rank a lowly 28th in overland production. Buffalo has topped 17 pts in just 1 of
its last 5 games, while the Chiefs have allowed 34, 30, & 30 pts in non-division
HGs so far. KC is 38-15 ATS as a HD, thus the Chiefs are worth a shot here.

TENNESSEE 27 - New York Jets 17 - (1:00) -- Every week, we write it, so why
not again? "The Titans just keep on doing it." Now 10-0 (only the 9th team in
history of NFL to do that), after Collins clicked on 13-yd, 56-yd, & 38-yd TDs in
the 2nd half vs Jacksonville, turning a 14-3 deficit, into a 24-14 win. Titans are
8-1-1 ATS by 83 pts, & have held 13 of their last 14 foes under 18 pts. NY in
off epic upset of Pats, & have topped 25 pts in 7 of last 8 games. Something
has to give. Jets are 5-13 ATS on the non-division road. Titans keep it going.

New England 24 - MIAMI 20 - (1:00) -- Four straight wins for the Dolphins, for
1st time in 2 years. Just a 2-pt win over the Raiders, but note a 200-yd edge,
with another solid showing from Chad (16-of-22). So that one pushed the dog
edge in Miami games to 8-0, by 106½ pts. Catching the Pats off a loss isn't the
healthiest of propositions, as NewEngland has covered all 3 such setups this
year, & 22-6 ATS the past several seasons. Check 511 yds in loss to the Jets,
as Cassel threw for 400 yds & 3 TDs. Revenge for that 38-13 Sept shocker.

DALLAS 27 - San Francisco 22 - (1:00) -- The return of Tony Romo proved to
be a success, in Cowboys' win over the 'Skins, altho he hardly set the world on
fire with his 198 PYs & 2 INTs (1 TD). But he did click on the winning TD, a 25-
yd fling to Bennett. And that Dallas "D" did its part, allowing only 14 FDs. The
Niners are in off scoring TDs in their first 5 possessions, in 35-16 rout of the
Rams, with Hill a nice 15-of-20 (2/0), & Gore posting 106 RYs. Can't trust
Niner "D", but they stayed within 5 pts of smoking Cards in their last road affair.

Tampa Bay 20 - DETROIT 17 - (1:00) -- Lions now on a 1-17 SU slide, but have
covered 4 of their last 6. Stayed with the Panthers, but allowed 264 RYs (8.3
ypr), in that 31-22 setback. However, the visitor is on a 7-0 ATS run in Detroit
games, with the Lions losing their 4 HGs to date by 48-25, 34-7, 25-17, 38-14
scores. But the Bucs needed OT to take KC, 2 weeks back, & are 4-22 ATS
on the non-division road, as well as 0-15 ATS on the road off non-division win.

BALTIMORE 23 - Philadelphia 17 - (1:00) -- OT tie for Eagles vs Cincy, with
McNabb a terrible 28-of-58 with 3 INTs & a fumble. But Philly "D" held Bengals
to 1.9 ypr. Ravens couldn't stay with the Giants, allowing 200 RYs (207) for
first time since Oct of '97. Have held 6 foes under 14 pts, & chance to do it in
front of home folks, following 3 straight RGs. Ravens 31-12 ATS non-division
hosts, while Philly is 11-17 ATS on the AFC road. Host bounceback call here.

Chicago 31 - ST LOUIS 16 - (1:00) -- Third dome game for the Bears this year.
Were taken apart at GreenBay LW, with a 200-83 RY deficit, in that 37-3 loss,
after entering with NFL's 4th ranked rushing "D" (had held 5 foes below 55 RYs
TY, including allowing just 20 to the perfect Titans the previous wk). Rams a
farce of late. Allowed TDs on SanFran's first 5 possessions, & have a 75-3
first half deficit the past 2 wks. Allowing >30 pts 10 of last 13 games, & in off
34-13, 47-3, 35-16 losses. Bear HC Smith: 6-1 ATS off pair of SU/ATS losses.

JACKSONVILLE 30 - Minnesota 24 - (1:00) -- Second consecutive Florida RG
for the Vikings, who couldn't stay with the Bucs, in that 363-210 yd deficit loss.
Thus far Minny has allowed 29.6 ppg when taking to the road, & is 2-15 ATS as
a RD vs a foe off a SU/ATS loss, as well as a 10-20 ATS as a non-division RD.
Dog was 11-0-1 ATS in Jag game, before past 2 wks, so worm may be turning.
If that is the case, note the 'Ville as a 14-5 ATS chalk vs the NFC, as well as an
11-5 HF of less than 4 pts. Jag call, despite Peterson's 277 RYs last 2 weeks.

ATLANTA 24 - Carolina 20 - (1:00) -- Revenge play for the Falcons, who are 2
games back of the Panthers, after dropping the winning TD pass in the final
1:06 vs the Broncos. But still a 138-99 pt home edge for Atlanta, with the host
covering 8 of their last 11 games. Check Carolina, overland LW: Stewart &
Williams combining for 250 yds (8.7 & 8.6 ypr, respectively). But Delhomme in
stupor, with just 17-of-46 for meager 170 yds & 4 INTs past 2 wks. Falcons
18-8 ATS as a division chalk, taking the Saints, 34-20, in that lone setup so far.

DENVER 23 - Oakland 20 - (4:05) -- Broncos enjoy 2-game edge in AFC West,
despite owning the 4th worst "D" in the NFL. But also possess 2nd best "O",
with Cutler (19/11) leading the way. Check their last 5 wins: by 1, 2, 3, 4, & 4
pts. But a win is a win. The Raiders are a struggling lot, managing a mere 10
ppg in their last 7 outings, allowing 1,070 RYs in their last 5 games, & in off a
382-186 yd deficit. But the Broncos are just 1-7 ATS as division chalks, & are
3-12 ATS Nov hosts off a SU win, vs an avenging opponent. Raiders the play.

Washington 27 - SEATTLE 17 - (4:15) -- Jim Zorn returns to Seattle. And,
apparently, that's where the 'Skins want to be. How about the visitor covering
the last 7 games involving Washington. Just 92 & 60 RYs the past 2 wks for
the 'Skins, who ranked 4th best, overland. Things should improve here, with
the Seahawks still struggling, despite the return of Hasselbeck LW (3 INTs).
Check a 458-196 yd deficit vs the Cards. 'Skins have bit of a score to settle
here, after their 35-14 loss in LY's playoffs, & their road success the way to go.

New York Giants 30 - ARIZONA 20 - (4:15) -- Sure, this is a huge HG for the
Cards, but the Giants sure feel cozy in this playground, where they took the
measure of the Patriots in LY's Super Bowl. Cards continue to shine. Are at 31
ppg in their last 18 outings, & in off a 458-196 yd edge. Warner: NFL's highest
rated QB (20/7), etc, etc. But now must face his old squad, which has covered
14-of-16, & in off demolition of quality Raven "D" (207 RYs). Sure, the Cards
are +47½ pts ATS as non-division hosts this year, but NY altogether different.

Indianapolis 26 - SAN DIEGO 23 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Time for a bit of a payback,
after the Chargers swept the Colts a year ago, including that 28-24 upset in the
playoffs. But a closer look shows Indy with FD edges of 25-11 & 29-20, in
those battles. Colts in off season-high 154 RYs (were at 69 ypg), with 24 pts in
the 2nd half vs Houston. Still 4 back of the Titans. Chargers in off losing to Pitt
in final 0:11, managing just 66 RYs & 218 TYs, so not there yet. SanDiego is
just 6-13 ATS as a HF of <4 pts. We call for the minor upset, but not involved.

MONDAY
NEW ORLEANS 27 - Green Bay 26 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- First HG for the Saints
since Oct 12th. Bring top-ranked "O" into this one, but just a 5-5 record, as their
overland game ranks 26th, & their "D" ranks 24th. Check Brees with 1,027 PYs
last 3 outings, but Saints being outrushed in their last 4 games. The Pack has
covered 5 straight, & in off snapping 2-game SU slide (3 & 1 pt losses), with that
37-3 wipeout of the Bears. Rodgers: 22-of-30, & 200 RYs, to boot (Grant: 145).
The Packers are on a 15-5 ATS road run, while the Saints are 9-18 ATS at home,
off a SU/ATS win. The spread is truly minuscule, but we will call this even closer.
 

New member
Joined
Aug 29, 2008
Messages
122
Tokens
Red Sheet

NOV 22, 2008, VOL 40, NO 13 -- RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE

VANDERBILT 23 - Tennessee 10 - (12:30 EST) -- Line opened at Vanderbilt minus 2½, and is now minus 3.
Commodores are normally a mid-teen or higher dog in this contest, but fortunes of the 2
have certainly changed. Vols playing out the string, with a mere 3 wins, & Fullmer just
counting the days. Tennessee ranks 117th in total offense, with a running game which
checks in at #107 (63 RYpg last 6). The 'Dores now bowl eligible, & have been highly
competitive vs all opponents, but Florida, & Gators are in a class by themselves. Check a
39:18-20:42 time edge in upset of Kentucky, with QB Nickson back in form. Revenger!
RATING: VANDERBILT 89

North Carolina State 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 26 - (12:00) -- Line opened at NorthCarolina minus 13, and
is now minus 11. Altho standing at just 4-6 SU, the Wolfpack have been a pleasant surprise
this season, especially in the battle vs the oddsmakers. As a matter of fact they are a
perfect 6-0 ATS in conference play, with back-to-back upsets the past 2 weeks. QB Wilson
has been on the mark, with 11 TDs in his last 6 games, & that rushing "D" has held its last
2 opponents to 94 & 98 yds. The Heels are heading for a bowl, but it has been the TO,
which has propelled them, as they rank just 92nd on offense. A call for rivalry upset.
RATING: NORTH CAROLINA STATE 89

TULSA 67 - Tulane 13 - (3:00) -- Line opened at Tulsa minus 27½, and is now minus 29. There cannot be
another squad in the nation, which is more eager to strap it on & get it going, than these
highly potent 'Canes, who have had to endure a week of living with the stigma of a 40-pt
loss, despite topping 500 yds on offense. Not only was their defense invisible in that embarrassment
at Houston, but they abetted in their downfall with 5 turnovers, & allowed a TD on
a KO return. Have to see return to the form, behind QB Johnson (37 TD passes), & decimated
Wave provides the perfect foil, having allowed >40 pts in 4 of its last 6 tilts.
RATING: TULSA 88

Stanford 27 - CALIFORNIA 24 - (3:30) -- Line opened at California minus 9½, and is now minus 9. Cards
broke out hearts a week ago, with an 18-yd TD pass vs USC, on the game's final play, after
deciding against a meaningless FG, following a time out by Trojan boss Pete Carroll, meant
to "ice" the kicker. The Trojans were a 4* Phone Play. So a 22-pt loss to mighty USC, but
just a 51-yd deficit, with a 21-21 FD push. Fact is, Stanford has been more than competitive,
with a combined 2-pt edge over the likes of OregonSt, Arizona, & Oregon. Cal in off
managing just 13 & 11 FDs, along with 173-27 & 194-85 RY deficits. An upset!
RATING: STANFORD 88

New England 27 - MIAMI 20 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Miami minus 1, and is now minus 2½. The Dolphs,
as a chalk in this series, sure is foreign, as you have to go back to '03, to find the last time
that has occurred. Fact is that the Patriots were the first victims of the "Wildcat Offense" of
the Fish, when they simply blasted NewEngland, 38-13 (as 12½ pt dogs), in front of a
stunned crowd in Foxboro, with a 461-216 yd advantage. And Miami has continued along,
winning 5 of its 7 games, in the interim. But this time Belichick & Co won't be taken by
surprise. Note that they are 3-0 ATS off losses, & the dog is 8-0 ATS in Miami games.
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88

New York Giants 31 - ARIZONA 17 - (4:15) -- Line opened at NewYork minus 3, and is now minus 3½.
Can't find many fans who aren't pleased with the fine play of the Cards, & especially of QB
Warner, who has suffered through some rough times, including his stay at NY, when he was
just serving time, until Eli was ready. WRs such as Boldin & Fitzgerald sure make his job
easier. However, the Giants are a different matter. Well acquainted with this field, where
they prevailed in LY's Super Bowl, they excel away from home. In off >200 RYs vs stone
wall that is Baltimore's defense, & own 2nd rated passing defense. NY, yet again.
RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Utah, Rice, Arkansas, PennSt, NotreDame - NFL: Atlanta, Detroit, Green Bay

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): NoCaroSt (+13 to +11); WashingtonSt (+9½ to +7½);
BallSt (-5½ to -7); OhioSt (-19 to -20½); Tulsa (-27½ to -29); Memphis (-3 to -4½); FlaInternat'l (-5 to -6½) -
NFL: Miami (-1 to -2½); Dallas (-10 to -11½); Baltimore (Pick to -1½); Jacksonville (-1 to -2½); Cincinnati
(+11 to +10) - TIME CHANGES: Falcons/Panthers: 4:15 - KEY INJURIES: Arkansas RB Smith (shoulder)
probable; Arkansas QB Dick (concussion) ??; BYU TE Pitta (knee) ??; Cincinnati QB Pike (sternum) probable;
Duke QB Lewis (foot) ??; EastCarolina WR Harris (foot) doubtful; FresnoSt RB Mathews (knee) doubtful;
GaTech QB Nesbitt (ankle) ??; KansasSt QB Freeman (concussion) probable; Louisville RB Anderson
(head) probable; Memphis QB Hall (thumb) probable; Memphis RB Steele (hamstring) probable; Minnesota
WR Decker (ankle) probable; Purdue QB Painter (undisclosed) probable; SanJoseSt QB Reed (groin) ??;
SoFla QB Grothe (ankle) probable; WashSt QB Lopina (concussion) ??; Western Mich RB West (ankle) ??
- NFL: Arizona TE Patrick (knee) ??; Baltimore RB McGahee (ankle) ??; Cincy WR Chatman (neck) doubtful;
Cincy WR Simpson (ankle) ??; Denver CB Bailey (groin) ??; Denver RB Young (groin) ??; GreenBay WR
Driver (toe) ??; Houston QB Schaub (knee) out; Houston WR Davis (finger) ??; KC RB Charles (ankle) ??;
NYGiant RB Jacobs (knee) probable; TampaBay RB Graham (knee) out
 

New member
Joined
Sep 13, 2006
Messages
106
Tokens
CKO


11 CONNECTICUT over *South Florida
Late Score Forecast:
CONNECTICUT 31 - *South Florida 20
(Sunday, November 23)

Connecticut isn’t getting nearly the respect it deserves. The Huskies offense boasts the country’s leading rusher
in Donald Brown (1537 YR, 5.6 ypc, 16 touchdowns), and the attack should be more productive now that starting
sr. QB Tyler Lorenzen has returned from injury (started last week at Syracuse after missing 4 games). UConn is
15-4 SU with Lorenzen at the controls. But the Huskies also have an underrated defense, which ranks 9th in the
country in pass efficiency defense, 19th in scoring “D,” and allows just 3.6 ypc. After a sparkling 5-0 start,
disappointing South Florida has dropped 4 of last 5. In the last 3 games (all SU & spread losses) USF QB Matt
Grothe has thrown 8 ints., not out of character for Grothe considering his career 39 int./38 TD pass mark against
BCS teams. UConn picked off Grothe twice in last season’s game, as the Huskies won despite Brown getting just
1 carry (Andre Dixon rushed for 167 yards for the Huskies in that rainy affair).



10 ARKANSAS over *Mississippi State
Late Score Forecast:
ARKANSAS 24 - *Mississippi State 13

Long-time SEC scouts report disappointed MSU players not easily regaining focus and intensity in early practices
for Arkansas, following all-out, bowl-eliminating loss vs Bama, coupled with “Egg Bowl” rival Ole Miss on deck.
And scouts seriously doubt Bulldogs heavily-criticized Gulf Coast attack (just 14 ppg) suddenly erupts vs.
ripening and refreshed Arkansas defense (off needed bye week) getting solid interior play from mammoth 6-3, 305
sr. NT Mitchell & 6-3, 289 DT Sheppard (10 TFL, 4.5 sacks). That’s an unfavorable scenario for MSU’s limited QB
Lee (only 139 ypg passing, 5 TDP), ill-supported by sagging ground game mustering 147 YR in last 3 SEC games.
On other hand, Hogs multi-tasking, speedy RB M. Smith (SEC-leading 150 all-purpose ypg) continues to roll vs.
Bulldogs thinning front 7 (DT Bowman joins MLB Chaney on sidelines with season-ending injury). And battletested
sr. QB C. Dick licking his chops after career-best 14 of 17 for 199 yds. & 4 TDP in 45-31 series victory LY.
So, good bet bowl-seeking Arkansas captures 10th straight in series in Starkville, where MSU is only 6-14 SU vs.
major foes since ‘05.


10 *NOTRE DAME over Syracuse
Late Score Forecast:
*NOTRE DAME 41 - Syracuse 10

The fact Syracuse finally hit the eject button on HC Greg Robinson after last week’s loss to UConn merely confirms
one of the worst-kept secrets in college football. And it hardly presages an emotional Orange effort for its
departing coach, as the team rarely rallied for Robinson and his staff when it might have been able to help save
their jobs earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Charlie Weis not likely to bypass a chance to build some goodwill with a
growing legion of disgruntled Domers. So no surprise if Notre Dame “O” goes full throttle, expanding upon
emboldened infantry that Weis finally unleashed vs. Navy, while capable Irish “D” throttles a Cuse attack that can’t
get out of its own way (QBs Dantley & Robinson a combined 11 of 42 passing for 86 YP and sacked 10 times in
last 2 games...really!).


10 BYU over *Utah
Late Score Forecast:
BYU 27 - *Utah 24

Yes, 11-0 Utah is fighting for an undefeated season and a berth in one of the BCS bowls. Too bad that will make
their bitter rivals to the south all the more eager to upset the Utes’ applecart. The underdog is 8-2 the last ten
meetings in this classic rivalry series. And the Cougars have the veteran QBing in Max Hall and enough balance
on offense to keep Utah nervous all afternoon, and even to spring the upset. Note that Utah’s schedule has been
surprisingly lenient TY, with Michigan a mere shadow of its former self. In their home games vs. Oregon State and
TCU, the Utes won by only three points each time—vs. the Beavers on last-second FG, and vs. the Horned Frogs
on a last minute-TD after TCU missed two FGs in the fourth quarter. No surprise if this is another nail-biter, nor a
win by the 10-1 Cougars.



10* KANSAS CITY over Buffalo
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS CITY 27 - Buffalo 19
(Sunday, November 23)

Now that Larry Johnson, Kansas City’s hammering RB (67 YR in his first game in four weeks vs. New Orleans last
Sunday) is back in action to keep defenses honest, value lies with the Chiefs, whose youngsters have spent
much of the early part of the season learning the ropes. Now, with 10 games under their belts, they should have
the edge over visiting Buffalo, traveling on short rest after Monday Night Football and suffering from some attrition
on defense. Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen is now playing with confidence, hitting 60% with 8 TDs vs. only 1
interception in a four-game stretch. Coach Herm Edwards has adapted the offense to the mobility of Thigpen, who
has helped Chiefs earn three covers their last four games


TOTALS:

UNDER (42) in the New England-Miami game—The Dolphins can’t count on surprising Bill Belichick twice in a row with their “Wildcat” formation;

Miami 5-1 “under” at home; UNDER (42) in the Carolina-Atlanta game—Panthers’ defense very solid; both teams prefer the power run in order to control the ball.




NINE-RATED GAMES:

CINCINNATI (+10) at Pittsburgh (Thursday)—Bengals have jelled (such as they can) well enough to fully stress the laboring
Steelers...

RUTGERS (-17) vs. Army—Scarlet Knights know how to stop the option, can become bowl eligible here, and have exploded on offense to cover
five straight...

PURDUE (-13) vs. Indiana—Last game for Joe Tiller & Curtis Painter catches Hoosier defense in distress...

MINNESOTA (+5) vs. Iowa—
Vastly-improved Gopher defense should make life miserable for shaky Iowa QBs...

HAWAII (-23) vs. Idaho—Defensively-superior UH has had extra rest,
while Vandals taking long trip after all-out effort vs. hated Boise
 

New member
Joined
Sep 13, 2006
Messages
106
Tokens
CKO


11 CONNECTICUT over *South Florida
Late Score Forecast:
CONNECTICUT 31 - *South Florida 20
(Sunday, November 23)

Connecticut isn’t getting nearly the respect it deserves. The Huskies offense boasts the country’s leading rusher
in Donald Brown (1537 YR, 5.6 ypc, 16 touchdowns), and the attack should be more productive now that starting
sr. QB Tyler Lorenzen has returned from injury (started last week at Syracuse after missing 4 games). UConn is
15-4 SU with Lorenzen at the controls. But the Huskies also have an underrated defense, which ranks 9th in the
country in pass efficiency defense, 19th in scoring “D,” and allows just 3.6 ypc. After a sparkling 5-0 start,
disappointing South Florida has dropped 4 of last 5. In the last 3 games (all SU & spread losses) USF QB Matt
Grothe has thrown 8 ints., not out of character for Grothe considering his career 39 int./38 TD pass mark against
BCS teams. UConn picked off Grothe twice in last season’s game, as the Huskies won despite Brown getting just
1 carry (Andre Dixon rushed for 167 yards for the Huskies in that rainy affair).



10 ARKANSAS over *Mississippi State
Late Score Forecast:
ARKANSAS 24 - *Mississippi State 13

Long-time SEC scouts report disappointed MSU players not easily regaining focus and intensity in early practices
for Arkansas, following all-out, bowl-eliminating loss vs Bama, coupled with “Egg Bowl” rival Ole Miss on deck.
And scouts seriously doubt Bulldogs heavily-criticized Gulf Coast attack (just 14 ppg) suddenly erupts vs.
ripening and refreshed Arkansas defense (off needed bye week) getting solid interior play from mammoth 6-3, 305
sr. NT Mitchell & 6-3, 289 DT Sheppard (10 TFL, 4.5 sacks). That’s an unfavorable scenario for MSU’s limited QB
Lee (only 139 ypg passing, 5 TDP), ill-supported by sagging ground game mustering 147 YR in last 3 SEC games.
On other hand, Hogs multi-tasking, speedy RB M. Smith (SEC-leading 150 all-purpose ypg) continues to roll vs.
Bulldogs thinning front 7 (DT Bowman joins MLB Chaney on sidelines with season-ending injury). And battletested
sr. QB C. Dick licking his chops after career-best 14 of 17 for 199 yds. & 4 TDP in 45-31 series victory LY.
So, good bet bowl-seeking Arkansas captures 10th straight in series in Starkville, where MSU is only 6-14 SU vs.
major foes since ‘05.


10 *NOTRE DAME over Syracuse
Late Score Forecast:
*NOTRE DAME 41 - Syracuse 10

The fact Syracuse finally hit the eject button on HC Greg Robinson after last week’s loss to UConn merely confirms
one of the worst-kept secrets in college football. And it hardly presages an emotional Orange effort for its
departing coach, as the team rarely rallied for Robinson and his staff when it might have been able to help save
their jobs earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Charlie Weis not likely to bypass a chance to build some goodwill with a
growing legion of disgruntled Domers. So no surprise if Notre Dame “O” goes full throttle, expanding upon
emboldened infantry that Weis finally unleashed vs. Navy, while capable Irish “D” throttles a Cuse attack that can’t
get out of its own way (QBs Dantley & Robinson a combined 11 of 42 passing for 86 YP and sacked 10 times in
last 2 games...really!).


10 BYU over *Utah
Late Score Forecast:
BYU 27 - *Utah 24

Yes, 11-0 Utah is fighting for an undefeated season and a berth in one of the BCS bowls. Too bad that will make
their bitter rivals to the south all the more eager to upset the Utes’ applecart. The underdog is 8-2 the last ten
meetings in this classic rivalry series. And the Cougars have the veteran QBing in Max Hall and enough balance
on offense to keep Utah nervous all afternoon, and even to spring the upset. Note that Utah’s schedule has been
surprisingly lenient TY, with Michigan a mere shadow of its former self. In their home games vs. Oregon State and
TCU, the Utes won by only three points each time—vs. the Beavers on last-second FG, and vs. the Horned Frogs
on a last minute-TD after TCU missed two FGs in the fourth quarter. No surprise if this is another nail-biter, nor a
win by the 10-1 Cougars.



10* KANSAS CITY over Buffalo
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS CITY 27 - Buffalo 19
(Sunday, November 23)

Now that Larry Johnson, Kansas City’s hammering RB (67 YR in his first game in four weeks vs. New Orleans last
Sunday) is back in action to keep defenses honest, value lies with the Chiefs, whose youngsters have spent
much of the early part of the season learning the ropes. Now, with 10 games under their belts, they should have
the edge over visiting Buffalo, traveling on short rest after Monday Night Football and suffering from some attrition
on defense. Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen is now playing with confidence, hitting 60% with 8 TDs vs. only 1
interception in a four-game stretch. Coach Herm Edwards has adapted the offense to the mobility of Thigpen, who
has helped Chiefs earn three covers their last four games


TOTALS:

UNDER (42) in the New England-Miami game—The Dolphins can’t count on surprising Bill Belichick twice in a row with their “Wildcat” formation;

Miami 5-1 “under” at home; UNDER (42) in the Carolina-Atlanta game—Panthers’ defense very solid; both teams prefer the power run in order to control the ball.




NINE-RATED GAMES:

CINCINNATI (+10) at Pittsburgh (Thursday)—Bengals have jelled (such as they can) well enough to fully stress the laboring
Steelers...

RUTGERS (-17) vs. Army—Scarlet Knights know how to stop the option, can become bowl eligible here, and have exploded on offense to cover
five straight...

PURDUE (-13) vs. Indiana—Last game for Joe Tiller & Curtis Painter catches Hoosier defense in distress...

MINNESOTA (+5) vs. Iowa—
Vastly-improved Gopher defense should make life miserable for shaky Iowa QBs...

HAWAII (-23) vs. Idaho—Defensively-superior UH has had extra rest,
while Vandals taking long trip after all-out effort vs. hated Boise
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA


TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

N.C. STATE
Although this weekend is not quite as chock full of rivalry
games as it used to be (many of those battles have now been
moved to the weekend following Thanksgiving), there are still
plenty of traditional battles on tap this Saturday. And on Tobacco
Road, one of our featured Rivalry Dogs is hot North Carolina
State, which makes the short drive to Chapel Hill for its annual
battle with bitter rival North Carolina. The Wolfpack has been
surging lately, covering its last 5 and 7 of its last 8 outings, and is
always a play in the College Coach as Underdog system with
HC Tom O’Brien, whose teams as BC and NCS are now 23-9 vs.
the spread their last 32 as a dog.




VANDERBILT
It’s not like the old days as far as Tennessee is concerned. The
season can’t end fast enough for the disappointed Vols, who
must travel to Nashville for a Saturday battle vs. rejuvenated
instate foe Vanderbilt. UT is going nowhere (and not to a bowl,
either), having dropped its last three vs. the number, while
recording a very poor -23.50 “AFS” (“Away From Spread”)
number its last two games. The Commodores have covered 3 of
the last 4 series meetings vs. better Vol sides, and also qualify as
a featured Streakbuster-Win recommendation this week.




RICE
It might seem as if the role of favorite is an uncomfortable one
for Rice, but that’s not necessarily the case. The underrated
Owls have covered 4 of their 5 chances as chalk this season, and
get another chance to do so Saturday at home when CUSA foe
Marshall pays a visit to Houston. There’s no reason to fear the
Herd away from its Huntington, West Virginia home, as Marshall
stands a poor 6-21-1 vs. the number its last 28 on the road. Note
that Rice is 11-4 vs. the number its last 15 as host, and qualifies as
a featured Rested Home Winner this week.




UTEP
One of the most enduring team trends in CUSA has been
UTEP’s success as a road underdog, a role in which the Miners
find themselves Saturday at Robertson Stadium for a crucial
conference clash vs. Houston. UTEP stands a solid 10-4-1 vs. the
line its last 15 as a visiting dog, qualifying it as a featured
recommendation this week with HC Mike Price in the College
Coach as Underdog system.






MIAMI-FLORIDA at GEORGIA TECH (Thursday, November
20)...GT has won and covered last 3 meetings, courtesy Chan. Paul
Johnson 3-1 vs. line at home TY, 6-2 vs. line overall. Canes have 3
straight covers as visitor after 3-10 previous 13 vs. line away from
home. Tech edge-slight to GT, based on series trends.



MIAMI-OHIO at TOLEDO (Friday, November 21)...RedHawks
have fared okay on road TY, covering 3 of 5 away, now 9-3 last 12
as road dog (3-2 TY). But Miami just 4-9 vs. line last 13 on board. Tech
edge-slight to Miami-O, based on extended trends.



BUFFALO at BOWLING GREEN (Friday, November 21)...BGSU
now on uptick with wins last 2 and covers last 3 in ‘08,but just 3-12
vs. line last 15 as host. Meanwhile, Turner Gill has covered 6 straight
as road dog! Tech edge-Buffalo, based on team trends.



FRESNO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE (Friday, November
21)...Fresno no covers last 9 TY, now 9-27-1 last 37 on board! Home
team has covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 in series. Tech edge-SJSU,
based on series and team trends.



EASTERN MICHIGAN at TEMPLE...EMU only 2-7 vs. line TY, now
6-15 last 21 on board. Temple yet to lose vs. line at home TY (1-0-
2) and now 8-3-2 vs. spread at Linc since ‘06. Tech edge-Temple,
based on team trends.



ARMY at RUTGERS...Rutgers has won 4 straight and covered last
6, while Army 6-1 vs. line last 7 on board. Stan Brock has covered
all 4 road games TY, while Rutgers had failed to cover its first 3 as
chalk before finally getting over the hump vs. Syracuse. Tech edge-
Army, based on recent trends.



ILLINOIS at NORTHWESTERN...NU has covered 6 of last 8 in
series, but failed to do so LY in 41-22 Illini romp. If Wildcats chalk, note
2-1 spread mark in role TY at home after 0-5 performance previous two
seasons. Tech edge-slight to NU, based on extended trends.



PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI...Series edge to ‘Stache, who has
won and covered last 3 vs. Cincy (only one of those vs. Brian Kelly,
however). ‘Stache has also won and covered last 3 on road, two
of those as dog. ‘Stache also 7-2 last 9 as dog. Bearcats only 2-3
as chalk TY, though Brian Kelly still 13-7 vs. spread with Cincy and
28-10-2 last 40 vs. number overall at CMU & Cincy. Tech edge-Pitt,
based on series and recent team trends.




BOSTON COLLEGE at WAKE FOREST...Wake had covered 4
straight in series prior to BC’s 38-28 win LY. Deacs have also
covered 2 of last 3 as Winston-Salem chalk and now 5-4 vs. line as
home favorite since LY (had failed to cover 13 straight in role prior
to turnaround in home chalk fortunes LY!). Tech edge-slight to
Wake, based on team trends.



INDIANA at PURDUE...Old Oaken Bucket! Home team has covered
8 of last 10 in series, although IU covered its last trip to Ross-Ade.
Hoosiers 2-8 vs. line TY. Tiller only 8-15 vs. line at home since ‘05
(2-3 TY). Tiller finale at Purdue. Tech edge-Purdue, based on
IU negatives.



MICHIGAN at OHIO STATE...Tressel won 6 of 7 SU vs. Lloyd Carr
(5-2 vs. line). Road team has covered last 3 in series, but Wolverines
only 1-3 vs. line away TY and 2-9 against spread overall. Buckeyes
no covers first 5 on line at horseshoe TY and no covers last 6 on board
as host! Tech edge-slight to Michigan, based on recent OSU
home woes.



DUKE at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer has won last 4 handily (all by
24 or more) vs. Duke and covered last 3 in series. Tech edge-
Beamer, based on series trends.



FLORIDA STATE at MARYLAND...Ralph had covered 3 straight in
series prior to FSU’s 24-16 win and cover LY. Terps, however, are
6-0 SU (4-1 vs. line, one NL) at College Park TY. Noles 1-2 vs. line
away TY, 4-8 last 12 in role. Tech edge-Maryland, based on
team trends.



NC STATE at NORTH CAROLINA...Heels had covered 4 straight
in series prior to 31-27 loss at nearly Raleigh LY. Butch has won and
covered last 2 as home chalk TY after Heels were 3-10 vs. line in 13
previous tries as Chapel Hill favorite. O’Brien, however, has covered
last 5 and 7 of last 8 TY, is 12-4 overall vs. number last 16 on board
and 23-9 last 32 as dog at BCS & NCS. Tech edge-NCS, based
on recent O’Brien marks.



IOWA STATE at KANSAS STATE...Home team has won and
covered by DD margins the past three meetings. ISU has dropped last
9 SU in ‘08 after opening with pair of wins TY. Prince finale at KSU, note
that Wildcats have covered only 1 of their last 7 final games of the
season. Tech edge-slight to KSU, based on series home trend.



TENNESSEE at VANDERBILT...Vandy has covered 3 of last 4 in
series. Vols no wins or covers last 3 in ‘08. Tech edge-Vandy,
based on recent trends.



ARKANSAS at MISSISSIPPI STATE...A real home series, with
host team covering last 6 meetings! Hogs, however, have covered 4 of
their last 5 TY. Sly Croom 2-2 vs. line at Starkville TY but just 4-11 last
15 at home. Tech edge-Arkansas, based on recent trends.



AKRON at OHIO...Home team has won and covered last 3 in series.
But Zips have covered 4 of 5 away TY and 5 of last 6 on road dating
to late ‘07. Zips also 2-1 as road chalk TY after 0-4 mark in role
previous 3 years. Tech edge- Akron, based on recent trends.



COLORADO STATE at WYOMING...Border war! Home team has
won and covered last 5 in series. CSU a real home-road team TY,
0-5 vs. line away from Fort Collins, 5-0 vs. spread at Hughes Stadium!
Tech edge-Wyo, based on series and team trends.



MARSHALL at RICE...Marshall 2-3 vs. line away TY, but that’s am
improvement from recent seasons (Herd 6-21-1 vs. number last 28
away from home). Owls 4-1 vs. line as chalk TY. Tech edge-Rice,
based on team trends.


SYRACUSE at NOTRE DAME...Ugh! Robinson only 7-18 vs. line last
24 on board. Cuse also just 1-4 its last 5 as road dog. ND just 9-17
vs. line last 26 at South Bend, extending back to Willingham era. Tech
edge-slight to ND, based on Cuse negatives.



WASHINGTON at WASHINGTON STATE...Apple Cup! Visiting
team has covered last 4 Apple Cups, and Huskies have covered last
4 at Pullman. But UW on 8-game spread losing streak in ‘08, while Wazzu
has covered last 2 TY. Tech edge-WSU, based on recent trends.



TULANE at TULSA...Tulsa has won and covered big the last three
meetings. Golden Hurricane has covered first 4 on line at home TY
and 5 straight as host dating to late ‘07. Wave has lost last 4 outings
in ‘08 by 17 or more. Tech edge-Tulsa, based on team and
series trends.



TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA...Teams have split the last 4 meetings
SU and vs. spread, with home team winning SU all of those 4.
Leach 2-0 as dog TY, but Stoops 4-1 vs. line at Norman, 14-4-1 vs.
spread last 19 as host. Stoops only 1-3 vs. line last 4 in revenge,
however. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on Sooner home mark.



MICHIGAN STATE at PENN STATE...Spartans have covered last
2 in series and are 8-2 vs. line away from home under Dantonio. Tech
edge-slight to Michigan State, based on Spartan road mark.



CLEMSON at VIRGINIA...Tigers 9-2 as dog since ‘05 (1-2 TY).
Cavs streaky TY vs. line, now no wins or covers last 2. Groh still only
0-1 vs. line as chalk TY and 1-6 as favorite since LY. Tech edge-
Clemson, based on extended dog mark.



AIR FORCE at TCU...Force now 7-1 last 8 vs. line as visitor. Frogs,
however, have won and covered their last 6 in Fort Worth, and are
13-4 as home chalk since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based
on team trends.



STANFORD at CAL...Big Game! Tedford lost his first Big Game LY
after beating Tree 5 straight. Stanford has covered last 2 Big Games,
however. Tedford is 5-0 vs. number as Berkeley chalk in ‘08, while
Harbaugh just 2-4 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-slight to Cal,
based on recent trends.



LOUISIANA TECH at NEW MEXICO STATE...NMSU 0-5 SU, 1-4 vs.
line last 5 TY, and Ags no covers last 4 on board at Las Cruces TY.
Tech edge-LT, based on recent trends.


BOISE STATE at NEVADA...Boise had overwhelmed Nevada in
recent years prior to wild 69-67 OT win on blue carpet LY. Broncos
had won and covered previous 7 meetings by huge margins (all by
31 or more), and Boise has won and covered last 3 at Reno by 140-35
total score! Ault 19-7 against number at home since returning to sidelines
in ‘04. Tech edge-Boise, based on extended series trends.



EAST CAROLINA at UAB...ECU has covered last 3 in series, but
Skip in retreat with no covers last 3 or 7 of last 8 TY. Included are
4 straight Ls in once-profitable road role. Tech edge-UAB, based
on recent ECU woes.


UTEP at HOUSTON...Mike Price 10-4-1 last 15 as road dog, and
Miners 11-6 as DD dog since 2003. Tech edge-UTEP, based on
Price’s extended road dog mark.



BYU at UTAH...Utes had covered last 3 meetings before BYU
escaped with 17-10 win LY. Cougs just 3-4 as visiting dog since
Bronco Mendenhall took over in ‘05. Tech edge-Utah, based on
recent trends.



IOWA at MINNESOTA...Floyd of Rosedale! Gophers have covered
last 2 Floyd battles after Hawkeyes had covered previous 7. If Iowa
chalk, note Hawkeyes 1-0 on road in role TY, but just 2-8 in role since
‘03. Tech edge-slight to Iowa, based on extended series
trends.



OREGON STATE at ARIZONA...Series edge to OSU, which has
won and covered last 2 and 8 of last 9 vs. Arizona. Beavs have
covered last 3 on road TY and 6 of last 8 away from Corvallis. Beavs
have also covered 7 of last 8 TY. Cats, however, have now covered
their last 7 at Tucson (4-0 as home chalk TY). Tech edge-OSU,
based on series trends.



WEST VIRGINIA at LOUISVILLE...Home team has won SU last 3
meetings, although WVU failed to cover in home win LY. Tech edgeslight
to Louisville, based on series trends.


UCF at MEMPHIS...Home team has covered last 3 meetings, all of
those won outright by UCF. Tech edge-slight to Memphis,
based on recent UCF woes.


UNLV at SAN DIEGO STATE...Rebs have now covered 4 of last
5 and are 3-1 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-UNLV, based on
recent trends.


OLE MISS at LSU...Rebs haven’t beaten LSU since ‘01, but they
have covered 6 of last 7 in series. Rebs have also covered last 5 as
road dog since mid ‘07. LSU 4-14-2 vs. number last 20 on board since
early ‘07, and no covers last 7 on board at Baton Rouge. Tech edge-
Ole Miss, based on team and series trends.



IDAHO at HAWAII...Leahey has won and covered big the last four
years in series, and has covered 5 of last 6 on board TY. Vandals
only 2-7 vs. line last 9 as visitor (1-4 TY). Tech edge-Hawaii, based
on team trends.


FLORIDA ATLANTIC at ARKANSAS STATE...ASU no covers last
5 on board TY. Schnellenberger 8-2 vs. line last 10 Belt games away
from Lockhart Stadium. Tech edge-FAU, based on team trends

UL-MONROE at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL...Weatherbie 15-8-1
as road dog since ‘05, and has won and covered handily the last 2
vs. FIU. Tech edge-ULM, based on team and series trends.



NORTH TEXAS at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MTSU in control lately
with big wins and covers last 2 meetings. UNT 7-14 vs. line for Todd
Dodge since LY, 14-30-1 last 45 overall. Tech edge-MTSU, based
on recent series trends.



UL-LAFAYETTE at TROY...Ragin’ Cajuns 9-4 vs. spread last 13 as
visitor. Trojans no covers last 2 as chalk TY after 11-3-1 run previous
15 in role. Tech edge-slight to ULL, based on recent trends.


UCONN at SOUTH FLORIDA (Sunday, November 23)...Home team
has won and covered the last 3 years. But USF only 1-4 vs. line at
Tampa TY, and poor 2-8 vs. line (all as chalk) in ‘08. Huskies only 1-
6 vs. line their last 7 away from home, however. Tech edge-slight
to UConn, based on recent USF chalk woes.







COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK


COACH & POINTSPREAD-

BALL STATE over Central Michigan
(11/19), GEORGIA TECH over Miami-Florida (11/20), ARKANSAS
over Mississippi State, BYU over Utah, CINCINNATI over Pitt, ULMONROE
over Florida International@, MICHIGAN STATE over penn
State, OHIO STATE over Michigan@, TCU over Air Force@, VIRGINIA
TECH over Duke.



COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-

UL-MONROE over Florida
international@, MICHIGAN STATE over Penn State@, NC STATE over
North Carolina, UTEP over Houston.



RIVALRY DOGS-

SAN JOSE STATE over Fresno State (11/21),
INDIANA over Purdue, NORTHWESTERN over Illinois, MICHIGAN over
Ohio State, NORTH CAROLINA STATE over North Carolina, TENNESSEE
over Vanderbilt, WYOMING over Colorado State, WASHINGTON
STATE over Washington, STANFORD over Cal, MINNESOTA over
Iowa, OLE MISS over Lsu.


POWER UNDERDOGS-

MIAMI-FLORIDA over Georgia Tech (11/
20)@, AIR FORCE over Tcu@, BOSTON COLLEGE over Wake Forest,
BYU over Utah, MICHIGAN STATE over Penn State@, OREGON
STATE over Arizona, TEXAS TECH over Oklahoma@.



PAINFUL MEMORY-

OKLAHOMA over Texas Tech@.


POWER REVENGE-

OKLAHOMA over Texas Tech@, PENN STATE@
over Michigan State.


RESTED HOME WINNERS-

MEMPHIS over Central Florida, FLORIDA
INTERNATIONAL over UL-Monroe@, HAWAII over Idaho, OKLAHOMA
over Texas Tech@, RICE over Marshall@.



IMPOTENT FAVORITES-WASHINGTON STATE over Washington
<!-- / message -->
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

N. Y. GIANTS-arizona "over"
There are a handful of enduring "totals" trends in the NFL, few
more compelling than Arizona's "over" tendencies. And that's
how we're going to look once more with the Cardinals when they
play host to the New York Giants Sunday at Glendale. Arizona
is "over" its first four at home this season, and now "over" its last
6 at U of Phoenix Stadium. The Cards are also "over" 23-9 their
last 32 games on the board since late in the '06 campaign.
Meanwhile, the Giants are also getting into the act, "over" 3 of their
first 4 on the road this season.




CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (Thursday, November 20)... Steelers
have won and covered last 4 and 8 of last 10 meetings, including 38-
10 romp at Paul Brown Stadium October 19. Cincy “under” 5-11 last
16 on board, but Steel “over” 44-16-1 last 61 at Heinz Field. Tech
edge-“Over” and slight to Steelers, based on “totals” and
series trends.



HOUSTON at CLEVELAND...Texans “over” 9-1 TY, now “over” 22-
8-1 last 31 on board. Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.
BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs “over” 9-2 last 11 at Arrowhead.
Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.



N.Y. JETS at TENNESSEE...Titans 9-1 vs. line TY, but have failed
to cover at home last 2 years vs. Jets. Favre has covered last 3 in
‘08, and Jets “over” last 4 TY. Tech edge-slight to “over”, based
on recent “totals” trends.



NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI...Belichick 11-5 vs. line last 16 as visitor,
also 6-2 last 8 as dog. Miami “under” 5-1 as host TY, while Belichick
“under” 11-5-1 last 17 since mid ‘07. Tech edge-Patriots and
“under”, based on team and “totals” trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at DALLAS...49ers “over” 5 of last 6, and “over”
first 3 under Singletary. Dallas “over” 5-2 last 7 TY. Wade Phillips
only 1-5 vs. line last 6 as home chalk since late ‘07. Tech edge-
“Over”, based on “totals” trends.



TAMPA BAY at DETROIT...Lions 0-4 SU and vs. line at Ford Field,
now 1-7 vs. spread last 8 as host since mid ‘07. Lions also “over”
14-4-1 last 19 on board. Gruden only 1-6 as visiting chalk since ‘05.
Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Bucs, based on “totals” and
Lions’ home trends.



PHILADELPHIA at BALTIMORE...If Andy Reid getting points, note
his 8-1 spread mark as road dog since ‘06. Birds “over” 7-3 last 10
as visitor, Ravens “over” 11-5-1 since mid ‘07. Tech edge-“Over”,
based on “totals” trends.



CHICAGO at ST. LOUIS...Rams only 4-13 vs. line last 17 at Edward
Jones Dome, and “over” 8-2 last 10 as host. Bears, however, “under”
5-0-1 last 6 away. Lovie just 5-12 last 17 as chalk. Tech edge-“Over”
and slight to Bears, based on “totals” and team trends.



MINNESOTA at JACKSONVILLE...Jags “over” 17-5 last 22 since
early ‘07 (“over” 5-4 TY). Jags have also failed to cover their first
4 as host TY. Vikes “over” 4 of first 5 on road TY. Tech edge-“Over”
and slight to Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.



CAROLINA at ATLANTA...Panthers 5-2 vs. line last 7 in series and
3-0-1 vs. number last 4 at Georgia Dome. Tech edge-slight to
Panthers, based on series trends.



OAKLAND at DENVER...Raiders had covered 4 straight in series
prior to Broncos’ lopsided 41-14 win in opener. Oakland “over” 8-5
on road since LY. Raiders also 30-60-1 vs. number since Super Bowl
XXXVII. Denver “over” 20-9-1 last 30 overall. Shan no covers first 4 as home chalk in ‘08, however. Tech edge-“Over” and slight
to Broncos, based on “totals” and team trends.




WASHINGTON at SEATTLE...Zorn has covered his last 3 on road
TY, and Skins “under” 11-4-1 their last 16 reg.-season games. Tech
edge-Skins and “under”, based on team and “totals” trends.


NY GIANTS at ARIZONA...Whisenhunt 3-0 as home dog since
taking over at Arizona LY, and Cards now “over” 13-5 their last 18
on board. Giants, however, are 16-3 vs. number their last 19 away
from Meadowlands. Tech edge-“Over”, based on Cards’
“totals” trends.



INDIANAPOLIS at SAN DIEGO...Bolts have won last 3 and covered
last 4 in series. If Dungy a dog note 10-6 spread mark in role since
‘03. Colts also “over” 6-2 last 8 away. Tech edge-“Over”, based
on “totals” trends.



GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS (Monday, November 24)...Saints
“over” 19-9 last 28 since late ‘06, and 3-1 as Superdome chalk TY
after subpar 3-11 mark in role past two seasons. Pack “over” 12-
4 last 14 on road. Pack also 7-1 last 8 as road dog since McCarthy
arrived in ‘06. Tech edge-“Over” and Packers, based on
“totals” and team trends



SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT


NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK


NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-

CAROLINA* over Atlanta#, INDIANAPOLIS
over San Diego, NEW ENGLAND* over Miami, PHILADELPHIA*
over Baltimore, GREEN BAY over New Orleans (11/24).



FAMILIARITY-

ATLANTA# over Carolina, MIAMI# over New England.


NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-No plays this week.

NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-No plays this week.


SCORE 40 LETDOWN-No plays this week.
<!-- / message -->
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK



AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

PLAY AGAINST any undefeated
conference road team from Game Ten
out that allows more than 10 PPG
versus an opponent with revenge off
a win if the opponent was favored by
35 or less points in its last game


Play Against:
TEXAS TECH

ATS W-L Record Since 1980 :16-2(89%)







INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

Since 1983, the Tennessee Volunteers are 24-1 SU versus Vanderbilt, favored in all twenty-five games.






SAYONARA

The last game of the season can be meaningful for college football teams
in need of respect. From a handicapping perspective, this especially
holds true when our squad that is about to check out meets these ‘value
laden’ criteria:
a) they must have won 2 or fewer games last season
b) they are on the road, without rest, in their season fi nale
c) they own a win percentage of .200 > this season
d) their opponent’s win percentage is .444 < this season
By combining all the factors above our ‘see ya later’ sad sacks are a nifty
36-21-1 ATS since 1980. There are two qualifying ‘Sayonara’ teams on this
season’s schedule: UNLV this week and UAB next Saturday.
By simply going up against a foe that allows 27.5 > PPG, and making sure
we allow < 34 PPG, we improve our numbers to 19-7-1 ATS. And by making
sure our opponent did not win two games ago by 10 or more points, we
ratchet our record up to 19-4-1 ATS. UNLV qualifi es this week.
While neither the Rebels nor the Blazers will be bowling this season,
this year’s teams certainly improved leaps and bounds over last year’s
editions. A season-ending pointspread win would be the Saki-making
statement to that effect


UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
Fla Atlantic over ARKANSAS ST by 7
Both the Owls and the Red Wolves trail Sun Belt Conference co-leaders
Troy and La Lafayette by one game for the top spot, thus making this a
pivotal game for post-season honors. And in gauging the current form
of both squads we feel the wrong team is favored. After a 0-4 start,
FAU has the look of a runaway freight train, winning each of its last
four games. Meanwhile, ASU has dropped 4 of its last 5 contests after
opening the campaign with wins in 3 of its fi rst 4 games. The history
book comes to our support, too, with the Owls 6-2 ATS as single-digit
conference road dogs while the felines are just 1-6 ATS when playing
with extra zzz’s. Howie Longname’s troops are dialed in to landing a
bowl bid and become bowl-eligible with a win here today. Beware of
the Owl.


5* BEST BET
TCU over Air Force by 31
Better get the rescue crews on standby because this looks like a fullfl
edged aerial disaster waiting to happen. The Fort Worth Frogs are
majorly pissed about letting Utah off the hook in a game where TCU
won everywhere but the scoreboard, eventually losing 13-10 in the
closing minutes at Salt Lake City. The Horned Ones have had two weeks
to stew over what might have been and will bring their ‘A’ game today
against what fi gures to be an exhausted Air Force squad. The Flyboys
left it all on the fi eld last Saturday against BYU, trading blows with
the superior Cougars until they faded in the fourth quarter. Now the
Falcons must close out the season on the road where they’ll bear more
than a slight resemblance to the cattle waiting to be slaughtered at the
Forth Worth stockyards. The Force made the big mistake of upsetting
TCU in’07 as 8.5-point home dogs and our database informs us that
the Falcons are an awful 1-17 ATS when they lose SU off a SUATS loss
versus an avenging foe. And make no mistake about it, Air Force WILL
lose this game. The Froggies have held 10 of 11 foes to season low – or
2nd low – yards this year and the nation’s best rush defense (just 39
YPG) fi gures to stymie the Flyboys’ only form of attack. TCU has cashed
in 4 of the 5 most recent series meetings and own an identical 4-1 ATS
record in Last Home Games. Look for Gary Patterson’s Frogs to reach
the 10-win plateau for the third time in the last four years with a notso-
Christian destruction of the fading jet jockeys



4 BEST BET
OKLAHOMA over Texas Tech by 17
It’s put up or shut up time for the new kids on the BCS block and Texas
Tech couldn’t have picked a worse venue to defend its #2 ranking.
When Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops leads his Sooners onto the
fi eld at Memorial Stadium this Saturday, it will mark his 61st home
game with OU. Stoops’ SU record in the previous 60 games? Try 58-
2 – including 23 wins in a row – plus he’s a perfect 4-0 SU this year
in lined games at Norman, winning by an average of just under 25
PPG. A Sooner victory today puts OU, Texas and Texas Tech in a 3-way
tie for the Big 12 South Division title… with the tiebreaker going to
the team ranked highest in BCS standings. There are numbers aplenty
surrounding this matchup and the majority of them suggest hitching a
ride with the Sooner Schooner. For openers, Texas Tech is an anemic 2-
7 ATS off a SU conference win of 28 or more points, 2-5 ATS away with
rest and Red Raider head coach Mike Leach – who served as Stoops’
offensive coordinator for one year before bolting to Lubbock in 2000
– stands just 1-6 SU and ATS as a dog or favorite of 3 or less points off
a bye week. Meanwhile, Stoopsie is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS when his team
owns a win percentage of .900 or greater versus an undefeated foe off
a win of 28 or more points. He’s also 6-1 ATS at home with conference
revenge, a situation that comes into play thanks to TTRR’s 34-27 defeat
of OU as 7.5-point home dogs in ’07. The icing on the cake comes in
the form of this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 that instructs
us to fade the Red Raiders. And even though Tech features a pair of
potential Heisman fi nalists (QB Harrell and WR Crabtree) compared
to just one for Oklahoma (QB Bradford), we think Stoops will spoil
Leach’s perfect season with a convincing double-digit smackdown.





3 BEST BET

Ole Miss over LSU by 6
You’d be hard pressed to fi nd a better coaching job in college football
this year than the one turned in by Houston Nutt at Ole Miss. In three
seasons under Nutt’s predecessor, Ed Orgeron, the Rebels struggled to
a pathetic 10-25 SU overall record while winning just THREE TIMES in
24 SEC skirmishes. This season alone, Nutt has steered Ole Miss to a
6-4 record (four losses by a combined 19 points) while bagging a trio
of conference wins. And if you think Mississippi will be intimidated
by going on the road to Baton Rouge, think again: the Rebels lost
by a mere 4 points at #1 Alabama just three weeks after conquering
#4 Florida at The Swamp! Yes, LSU did rise from the dead last week
against Troy, erasing an incredible 31-3 third quarter defi cit to score
a 40-31 win – the greatest comeback in school history. Ah, but such
events often exact a stiff price the following week and that’s not what
the Tigers need against an Ole Miss squad that’s cashed 6 of the last 7
series get-togethers (6-0 ATS L6 at Death Valley). The Bayou Bengals
are also hamstrung by a seemingly unthinkable 1-15 ATS record
in their last 16 home games against SEC opposition. The only thing
missing here is value (Rebs were 19.5-point HDs versus Tigers LY) but
the way Nutt has his team rolling, we may not need the points. Money
burners like LSU with little focus or desire (2-7 ATS TY) make for poor
favorites… and that’s what you’ll be if you try to coax a pointspread
win out of the Tigers today.








Thursday, November 20th
GA TECH over Miami Fla by 6
If this were the mid 80’s or the early 90’s and GT boss Paul Johnson was
relying on his triple-option rushing attack to put points on the board
against THOSE lightning-fast Hurricane defenses, he would’ve dropped
that offensive scheme in a hurry. Those ferocious stop units would have
been all over his ground game (251 YPG in ‘08) before he got to his 2nd
option (just ask Nebraska or Oklahoma). However, this is 2008 and though
the Baby Canes are defi nitely getting better every week, slowing down
the nation’s 8th-ranked rushing offense may be a bit much to ask in front
of a raucous Thursday night Bobby Dodd Stadium crowd. And speaking
of Thursday road teams, they’ve been a money-burning 1-9 SU and 3-7
ATS off a Thursday home game of late. The Hurricanes control their ACC
Championship Game destiny should they win their last two games but their
youth could betray them here. With Miami head coach Randy Shannon
0-5 ATS when owning a .666 or greater win percentage versus ACC foes
and Johnson 15-5 ATS with rest (11-2 as chalk), we’ll look for the hosts’
running game to operate with more precision and eventually wear down
the resurgent visitors




Friday, November 21st
TOLEDO over Miami Ohio by 3
With both teams branded by the shame of identical 2-8 season marks, we’ll
be surprised if either squad shows any interest or intensity in this snoozer
(mercifully, this game will not be televised on ESPN). Toledo certainly has
more incentive: head coach Tom Amstutz will abdicate his throne at season’s
end but can we really trust ‘Tommy Large’ in a lame duck chalk role? With
the Rockets closing out the campaign at home again next week, we’d rather
try Tom as a home dog against Bowling Green when the fi nal curtain falls
on his 8-year head coaching run. UT does own a money-making 13-2 ATS
record as chalk off a double-digit defeat but the RedHawks counter with a
recent 3-0 SUATS series dominance. All things considered, we’ll opt to do our
impression of Bradbury Robinson back in 1906 and ‘pass’.



Buffalo over BOWLING GREEN by 1
Unlike the MAC road kill mentioned above, we wouldn’t mind checking
out this tussle between East Division leading Buffalo and 2nd place
Bowling Green. Head coach Turner Gill has worked wonders with the Bulls
in just three seasons, improving from a 2-10 SU start in 2006 to winning
the team’s 4th game in a row in ’08 last week to become bowl eligible.
Tonight’s trip to Bowling Green marks the fi nal stop on Buffalo’s 2008
‘Revenge Tour’ and the Bison have rolled to a perfect 4-0 ATS mark against
their earlier opponents in that role (UB has also cashed six in a row as a
road dog). Yes, the Bee Gees can qualify for postseason play with a victory
here but with Buffalo coach Gill being the answer to this week’s TRIVIA
TEASER on page 2, we’d rather go running with the Bulls than take fl ight
with the Falcons.




SAN JOSE ST over Fresno St by 3
Fresno State limped its way to bowl eligibility with a win over New Mexico
State last week but Pat Hill’s current team looks more like shelter mutts
than the best-in-show Bulldogs that bullied their way to a 9-4 campaign in
’07. One of those wins was a merciless 30-0 thrashing of San Jose State so
you know Spartan coach Dick Tomey will have his team breathing fi re for
this rematch – if he can get his boys to shake off back-to-back losses where
they were outscored 62-17. SJSU already owns the six wins needed to go
bowling but may need a seventh win to seal the deal following that pair of
ugly defeats. With the series visitor posting a weak 1-5 ATS mark lately and
San Jose State proudly displaying a 3-0 SUATS record in its most recent Last
Home Game scenarios, we’ll look for a Spartan effort from the home team
tonight.



Saturday, November 22nd
TEMPLE over E Michigan by 11
Two more teams that will be cleaning out their lockers at the end of Game
Twelve. At least Temple still seems to have a little fi ght left: the Owls shook
off the previous week’s heartbreaking loss to Navy to rally from 18 points
down against Kent State but the Flashes nailed a late fi eld goal to steal
the win. Results like that have made Temple the tough luck poster boys for
2008. Five of the Owls’ seven losses have come by a combined total of just 18
points and three of those defeats came on the game’s fi nal play! Meanwhile,
the nose-diving Eagles have gone 3-18 SU in their last 21 road games and
have been whipped by 3 TDs in their last two outings this season. A win here
for Temple and next week at home against Akron would give the Owls 5
wins, their most since 1990. In what will likely be EMU coach Jeff Genyk’s last
fl ight away from Ypsilanti with his Eagles, expect the Owls to rule the roost
– but not by a big enough margin to ring the register.



RUTGERS over Army by 11
It could be time for the FDA to stage a surprise inspection to see if Rutgers
head coach Greg Schiano has been spiking his team’s pre-game meals. Five
weeks ago, the red-faced Knights were just 1-5 on the season and looked as
lost as a bunch of New Jersey National Guardsmen in downtown Baghdad.
But lo and behold, QB Mike Teel rediscovered his deft passing touch and
Rutgers went on a 4-game tear, culminated by last week’s jaw-dropping 49-
16 destruction of South Florida, a team previously ranked in the Top Ten that
also had the advantage of a bye week to prepare for the Knights’ arrival in
Tampa. Off that shocking upset and a revenger against Louisville on deck
for next week, Rutgers should bag win No. 6 here against Army, a team that
Schiano has crushed in three prior meetings by an average score of 40-9.
However, the problem here is the hefty price. Army has also rebounded from
a slow start to hold three of its last fi ve opponents to season low yards and
the Cadets have cashed in all three tries this year as dogs of more than 10
points. When it comes to today’s color choice for body armor, we’ll go with
basic black over red and follow the infantry into battle.



Illinois over NORTHWESTERN by 6
Northwestern’s 5th-year senior QB C.J. Bacher had been MIA over the past
few weeks but he returned in time to fi re a pair of 3rd-quarter TD passes
against Michigan that turned a 14-7 defi cit into a 21-14 victory, leading the
Purple Cats to their fi rst 8-win season since 2000. Meanwhile, things went
from bad to worse for the Illini. A 30-20 home loss to Ohio State marked
Illinois’ third loss in its last four games and if Ron Zook’s squad doesn’t declaw
the Wildcats here they will become the fi rst team since 1955 Michigan
to fi nish with a losing record after playing in the Rose Bowl the previous year
(gee, funny how the words ‘Michigan’ and ‘losing’ are suddenly becoming
synonymous). Yes, it’s ‘Bowl Eligible or Bust’ for the Fighting Illini in their Big
10 season-ender but with fi ve ‘In The Stats’ wins in their previous six games
– added to Northwestern’s 0-5 ITS mark in the Wildcats’ last fi ve contests
– we wouldn’t be surprised to see Juice Williams squeeze out a big victory
(and a cover) today at windy Ryan Field.




CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh by 4
While the preseason pundits expected this season’s Big East race to be
decided by South Florida and West Virginia, these two party-crashers are
set to slug it out for the loop’s top spot instead. Currently side-by-side in
the new BCS rankings (UC #19, Pitt #20), the Bearcats and Panthers have
exhibited similar amounts of grit and determination this season while
separating themselves from other conference pretenders. Cincinnati’s
Brian Kelly is right on course to equal or surpass last year’s 10-3 record but
he’ll have to overcome some mighty strong Pittsburgh numbers to do so.
Amazingly, Pitt’s Dave Wannstedt has won and covered in all three slugfests
with the Queen City crew and his squad upset the Bearcats, 24-17, as 9.5-
point home dogs in ’07. Even better, the dog is 8-2 ATS in Panthers games
this year and the Black Cats are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four appearances
as pups since their season-ending upset win over WVU as 28.5-point dogs
last year. Cincinnati has compiled a strong 9-3 ATS mark as chalk when
playing with conference revenge but this Pittsburgh bunch just looks too
hot to lay any points against. Should be a great game to watch but we’ll
keep the wallet closed for now.




Boston College over WAKE FOREST by 3
The best thing about this matchup for Wake Forest is the location. The
maddeningly inconsistent Deacons have dropped three straight road games
both SU and ATS so they’ll love being back in Winston-Salem where they’re
5-0 ATS lately as conference home chalk of 7 points or less. The Deacs have
also cashed 4 of the last 5 series meetings and the Bostonians should take
note that teams playing off an upset of Florida State are just 1-7 ATS versus
an opponent off a SU loss. But as enticing as all that may be, the Eagles
show up today as quite a rare animal – an underdog owning both the
better offense AND defense. The Everly Brothers may have thought their
“bird dog was on the wrong trail” but this particular hybrid of fowl and
canine is very much to our liking. Deacons sink to 1-5 ATS in their last six
shots at the Big Board.




PURDUE over Indiana by 16
It all comes down to this… one fi nal chance to get it right and send Joe
Tiller out a winner in his fi nal game at Ross-Ade Stadium – against the
Boilermakers’ most despised foe, Indiana. That scenario is certainly not a
given. Woeful Purdue has visited the winner’s circle just ONCE in its last
8 games, the Boilers are a poor 1-6 SU in Big 10 play and Tiller’s usually
prolifi c offense has sputtered badly, being held to single digits in 4 of
their 11 games. However, the train gang fi nds itself as the avenger in
this year’s meeting after IU’s win in ’07 snapped a 5-game winning skein
by Purdue. Even better, the Boilers catch a depleted Hoosiers squad
that’s only 9-57-2 ATS when losing SU this decade (4-28-1 ATS versus a
foe off a loss). Tiller is 16-3 ATS at home against a foe off back-to-back
losses, including 7-0 when his team is also off consecutive defeats, and
we look for this band of underachieving Boilermakers to summon up a
big effort to send Joe out in style. A SU win here would close the book
on a 12-year, 87-62 run for Tiller; let’s hope he gets both the win AND
the cover.


OHIO ST over Michigan by 14
We’ll never know for sure who’s responsible for our country’s current
fi nancial crisis but with a little digging we could probably round up the
names of the Maize-and-Blue brainiacs responsible for chasing Lloyd Carr
out of town before breaking the bank to bring in Rich Rodriguez as his
replacement. And what did UM get for its new head coach’s astronomical
salary plus a share of the $4 million contract buyout from West Virginia?
How about the FIRST 8-LOSS TEAM EVER in Michigan history? Folks, we’re
talkin’ 129 years here, all the way back to when every man in America
wore a hat. But as Bob Dylan so eloquently stated, “ When you think that
you’ve lost everything, you fi nd out you can always lose a little more.”
That sums up this weekend perfectly for Michigan fans: just a week after
their team established the benchmark for school gridiron futility, they now
have to close out this miserable season by watching Rodriguez get his butt
kicked up between their ears by the very man he was hired to beat – Jim
Tressel of Ohio State. Michigan’s disastrous campaign has removed any
hint of drama from what is usually a blood battle for the Big 10 crown and
a trip to the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes can still get there but they’ll need a
win here (no problem) coupled with a Penn State loss (possible problem)
to reach Pasadena. Today’s spread is the biggest in series history; the most
points the Wolves have taken before was +17 in 1996 and they won that
game, 13-9. It’s true that neither team has won 5 in a row in this series
since before the Great Depression (1927) but if you’ve been following
the stock market lately, you know we’ve got a pretty good ‘economic
downturn’ of our own going on right now – which means Tressel has a
good shot to win his 5th straight against Michigan and boost his career
series record to 7-1. But as bad as the Wolverines are, they still pack a 9-2
ATS log as underdogs of 6 or more points and will look at this showdown
as their ‘bowl game’ for 2008. We keep pretty close tabs on the Buckeyes
and we honestly can’t trust their somewhat anemic offense laying this
kind of number in an annual bloodbath. Take it if you play it. After all, this
is still a rivalry game, isn’t it?




VA TECH over Duke by 10
The Hokies have watched a potentially great year slide to a merely
respectable one after losing 3 of their last 4 games to land at 6-4. The
problems are many: an offense that’s scored more than 27 points only ONCE
in the entire season, a defense that’s a few players shy of intimidating and
special teams play – the foundation of Beamer Ball – that’s clearly been
lacking. Not so surprisingly, Boss Beamer’s ATS numbers are beginning to sag
somewhat. He’s 0-3 as chalk of more than 3 points in ’08 and has covered just
5 out of 13 tries as a double-digit conference favorite off a SU loss. Despite
Duke’s savage 31-7 beating at Clemson last Saturday, the Blue Devils can
still become bowl eligible with wins in their fi nal two games against the
Hokies and Tar Heels. We personally don’t see that happening but Duke
does qualify as a ‘LEAN ON ME’ underdog play (see issue 8) and that’s a good
enough recommendation for us to give Cutcliffe’s team a sideways glance.
Hey… no guts, no glory, right?




Florida St over MARYLAND by 1
This series has followed a distinct pattern over the past four seasons… FSU
wins at home by 8 points while Maryland holds serve at home with a 3-
point win. Guess whose turn it is this time? Maryland backs up the choice
with some great numbers: the Terps are 13-4 ATS as ACC home dogs of 7 or
fewer points and they’ve won 4 games SU as dogs this year – for the second
straight season. Plus, last week’s thrilling win over North Carolina marked
Maryland’s 6th win over a Top 25 ranked team (4-0 this year) for a school
record. The Seminoles aren’t quite so lucky in the ATS department. They’re
3-9 as conference favorites of 8 points or less, 3-8 as road favorites versus
conference opponents with revenge and 2-6 before taking on Florida. And
they’re not the dominant FSU squads of old, trailing by double digits in FIVE
consecutive games, somehow winning the previous four before their luck
ran out against Boston College. However, most of our arguments in favor
of Maryland hinge on the Terps being the dog in the matchup. With the
line currently bouncing around near ‘pick-em’, we’ll have to see where the
number settles before going any further.




N CAROLINA over NC State by 8
Fear The Turtle. Butch Davis and company didn’t heed that advice and now
the Tar Heels need help to claim the ACC Coastal Division crown. They’ll
certainly be interested observers when Georgia Tech tangles with Miami this
Thursday – a Hurricane loss might add a little pep to their step for today’s
bitter in-state rivalry. But even with that added incentive, the line on this
matchup appears to be a tad high for our liking, especially since the Heels
are just 1-4 ATS recently as double-digit conference home favorites. Their
1-4 ATS record after Maryland and 2-6 ATS mark in Last Home Games also
doesn’t bode well for Chapel Hill backers. With State needing wins in its
fi nal two games to become bowl eligible, Wolfpack coach Tom O’Brien will
ask talented QB Russell Wilson to keep this one close. North Carolina may
avenge last year’s 31-27 setback at Raleigh but Baby Blue’s 3-7 ATS mark
as ACC favorites with revenge doesn’t guarantee that we’ll grab the cash.
Looks like a take.



KANSAS ST over Iowa St by 3
Back when the word ‘Sears’ was accompanied by ‘Roebuck’, the retail giant
used a three-tier system to market their merchandise, labeling items as
‘good, better or best’. Welcome to Manhattan, Kansas, where the operative
words are ‘bad, worse, worst’. Not only is today’s contest the last game for
lame duck head coach Ron Prince, K-State is another favorite ‘leaking oil’
(losing the game stats), plus the double-digit favorite Wildcats actually lost
to Iowa State last year as 15-point road chalk. Even with an upset of KSU,
the Cyclones will merely equal last year’s 3-9 mark of futility – and if Kansas
State is ready to ditch Prince after just three seasons, second-year Iowa State
head coach Chizik now has a more realistic view of where the bar of success
has been set in the Big 12 North. However, this week’s WE GOTTA GET OUT
OF THIS PLACE article on page 2 clearly puts K-State in the crosshairs here, so
we’ll have to side with the Cyclones against the overpriced Wildcats.




Tennessee over VANDERBILT by 3
Knoxville is not a fun place to be these days. Tennessee fans are still shuffl ing
along in zombie-like shock over the rapid demise of the Volunteer program
and the dismissal of head coach Phillip Fulmer. Ol’ Phil gave the fans a
19-8 record to cheer about in the past two year but a poor start this year
coupled with the fact that UT had gone just 4-11 SU against the SEC’s Big
Four (Alabama, Florida, Georgia and LSU) lately, including 0-3 this season,
convinced the administration it was time for a change. But announcing
Fulmer’s termination midway through the campaign backfi red – the Vols
have gone 0-3 SU and ATS in their past three outings, the most recent an
almost unthinkable home loss to 3-6 Wyoming as 26-point favorites. Even
worse, the bumbling Tennessee offense scored a grand total of just 25 points
in that embarrassing trio of defeats. Lost amid all the drama playing out at
UT is the news that Vanderbilt’s Commodores won last week at Kentucky
to FINALLY become bowl eligible for the fi rst time since 1982. Such grand
achievements usually result in letdowns the following week and with Fulmer
a solid 13-5 ATS off a SU favorite loss (10-2 against SEC foes), we think Vandy
will drop to 0-4 SUATS in Last Home Games after today. If you need further
ammunition to go with the Big Orange, look no further than our INCREDIBLE
STAT on page 3. Wrong team favored.




Arkansas over MISSISSIPPI ST by 6
Forget about striking out in a brothel with a fi stful of fi fties; we don’t think
Croom and company could score in a women’s prison with a handful of
pardons! The Bulldogs’ 7-point effort against Alabama marked the 4th time
this season that Sly’ s boys have been held to single digits and it won’t get
any easier this week against an Arkansas squad that is still playing hard for
Bobby Petrino. The Hogs held high-powered Tulsa to just 23 points in early
November and shouldn’t have any problem shutting down an impotent
Bulldog squad that’s just playing out the string. The ‘pick ‘em’ line certainly
lends value to this play: the visitors have beaten the hosts 12 of the last 13
times SU and have been favored in 10 of those meetings. With Missy State
0-9 SU of late after its annual rumble with ‘Bama – and with Petrino needing
to win his fi nal two games to become bowl eligible – there’s only one way to
go in this dead-even affair. You know what to do.



Akron over OHIO U by 1
The Zips battled Buffalo for four solid hours last Saturday in a valiant attempt
to win their fi nal game at the historic Rubber Bowl, their home for the past
68 years. But after four overtimes, visiting Buffalo slugged out a 43-40 win
to move into the MAC East division lead. However, the Zips aren’t completely
out of the running if Buffalo loses on Friday night but they must still knock
off the Bobcats to retain any hopes of reaching the conference title game.
We think they’re out of the running for an ATS win here since we have a rule
against playing overtime losers… especially as road favorites. Can’t work up
an appetite for a Bobcat bet, though, when Ohio U is a feeble 5-11 ATS with
rest. There are better opportunities elsewhere…



Colorado St over WYOMING by 6
Big implications for both teams but entirely different is nature. For the visiting
Rams, a win today would put them in the running for a possible bowl berth
in coach Steve Fairchild’s fi rst season – and also avenge a humiliating 24-0
loss suffered here in their last visit in 2006. You can forget about Wyoming’s
mind-altering upset of Tennesse at Knoxville… the Vols were so fl at for that
game even Michigan could have won. Nope, a better measuring stick for the
Cowboys’ true worth would be a sickly 4-24-1 SU record compiled in their
last 29 conference games. Even with a win, Wyoming will suffer its fourth
straight non-winning season under coach Joe Glenn and today’s seasonender
at Laramie will likely serve as Glenn’s swan song after a 6-year stint.
Just do us a favor and don’t hire Greg Robinson, okay?



RICE over Marshall by 10
Had we taken the “If you can’t say something good about someone, don’t
say anything” adage literally, this writeup would have turned up blank. Well,
maybe not completely… wins here and next week against Houston would give
the Owls 9 victories this season, a number not equaled in their last decade.
Hmmm… and Rice is a surprising 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in ’08, fueled by an offense
that’s exploded for 46.5 PPG in its last 6 games. The Owls also own one of CUSA’s
top pass-and-catch tandems is QB Chase Clement and WR Jarett Dillard
and they’ve forced a whopping 25 turnovers this season. Hey, where have
these guys been hiding? Meanwhile, the Blundering Herd is going nowhere
fast, outyarded by the opposition in 9 straight games and beset by problems
that coach Mark Snyder insists are “self-infl icted”. A hungry home team with a
dangerous offense against a potentially demoralized visitor? Bring it on.



NOTRE DAME over Syracuse by 22
By the time you read this it will be late Tuesday afternoon and the Irish will be
STILL be working on recovering on-side kicks. If it wasn’t for a dropped pass
at the 11-yard line, the Naval Academy might have rallied from a 20-point
defi cit with under 2 minutes to play to stun Notre Dame after recovering not
one, but TWO onside kicks. The good news for the Irish in today’s contest
is that its opponent must score in order to kick off and that won’t likely
be the case as lowly Syracuse invades the Golden Dome. Orange fans back
in the Empire State have been singing “The sun will come up tomorrow…
bet your bottom dollar” since head coach Greg Robinson was fi nally served
with his walking papers this week (9-36 SU record). But don’t feel too bad
for Mr. Robinson: he’ll receive $1.1 million next season for the fi nal season
on his contract. Hmmm… 9 wins in 4 seasons – that works out to around
$500,000 per win… not bad! How does Coach Lawrence sound to you? With
the Orange 1-12 SU and 4-13 ATS in the last 4 games of the season under
Robbie, there’s no reason to believe they’ll come to play this week. Notre
Dame’s 6-1-1 ATS mark as home favorites of less than 24 points versus a less
than .500 opponent seals the deal. Lay it, play it, say it – Go Irish!



Washington over WASH ST by 6
It might actually be time to relinquish Division 1-A status when you’re installed
as a 7-point home dog to a WINLESS team. That’s right, the 0-10 Huskies from
Washington actually show up at Pullman laying a TD to the hapless home
team… and why not? After last week’s 31-0 blanking at ASU, the Cougars
have now been kept off the scoreboard in 3 of their last 4 contests. However,
that doesn’t mean we’re ready to jump on the visitors’ bandwagon in this
battle for what should be renamed the “Crapple Cup”. Lame-duck HC Coach
Ty Willingham and his band of pups haven’t won a stat battle all year and in
the only time they were favored this season they were beaten outright by
Stanford. We’ll be watching reruns of Cloris Leachman on ‘Dancing with the
Stars’ before tuning in to this one but we will grab the bushel basket of points
being offered. THIS JUST IN: winless road teams from Game Ten out are just
7-47 SU… and let’s not forget that the Cougars did hold Okie State to seasonlow
yardage this year. You can do it – it’s as easy as bobbing for apples



TULSA over Tulane by 34
Hold on – we think Houston just scored AGAIN. Our 5* PLAYBOOK newsletter
college play delivered like a 5* should as the Cougars annihilated the Golden
Hurricane, 70-35. Suddenly, after an 8-0 start, Tulsa has lost 2 straight road
games and you can bet they’ll be in an ornery mood in this Last Home Game.
Meanwhile the 2-8 Green Wave are coming off an embarrassing loss of their
own, a 17-point home setback to lowly UAB, and Tulane’s 30-PPG defense
should provide little resistance to a Tulsa squad that won’t hesitate to run it up
big. The Greenies’ 1-6 ATS mark as conference dogs of 14 or more points just
adds more devastation to a Hurricane poised to reach catastrophic proportions.
The hosts have their ‘eye’ on this one – no need for us to look further



PENN ST over Michigan St by 17
Any discussion of the Penn State program begins and ends with Joe Paterno,
the coaching icon who has had his job at Happy Valley for a record 43 years.
Paterno’s contract runs out this season but talk of his future has been put on
hold until the conclusion of the current campaign – or at least until he does
something about an ailing hip that’s kept him off the sidelines and in the
press box for most of 2008. “I’m probably going to have to get something
done with this thing as soon as the Michigan State game is over,” Paterno
said, indicating that his complete focus remains on the Spartans since a
Lions’ win clinches a trip to the Rose Bowl. The Green-and-White may fi nd
Beaver Stadium less than hospitable considering they’ve been camped out in
the state of Michigan for the last six weeks and the ATS archives offer little
support for Mark Dantonio’s squad. MSU is just 1-5 ATS with rest, 2-6 ATS
when playing its Last Road Game and the Spartans have lost the stat wars
in four of their last six games. Joe Pa currently stands 4-1 ATS at home in
this series, 5-1 ATS versus a rested foe and 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS defending
his home turf off back-to-back ATS losses. Screw Joe The Plumber… we’re
backing Joe The Coach in what could be his fi nal home appearance in
front of the Penn State faithful. And should Paterno close the book on his
unrivaled career following the Nittany Lions’ bowl game, we have just one
question to ask Joe Shades: who’s gonna play you in the movie?




VIRGINIA over Clemson by 3
The battle lines are clearly drawn in this ACC showdown. The winner bags
win No. 6 and joins the ever-growing group of postseason wannabes. A quick
check of the numbers tells us the Wahoos are the more likely candidate to
achieve ‘bowlness’. They’re an outstanding 18-3-2 ATS off BB ATS losses and
head coach Al Groh owns a superb 14-7 SU and 15-4 ATS record as a home
dog, including 7-0 ATS off a SUATS loss. Clemmie, though, has failed to bring
home the pointspread bacon as an ACC road favorite off back-to-back losses,
posting a miserable 7-16-1 mark versus the number. We’ll have to back Groh
at home against interim Clemson coach Swinney playing a pressure-packed
contest on the conference road. Cavs git’r done.




CALIFORNIA over Stanford by 3
The Big Game is one of just a few meaningful ‘rivalry games’ on this week’s
slate. And as we’ve come to learn there have been many cliffhangers in this
series including the most memorable of all – the 1982 hasty Stanford band
appearance. Today’s game is meaningful for both squads. For 6-4 Cal the
onus will be on avenging last year’s 20-13 loss as a 13-point road favorite.
For the 5-6 Cardinal this is a ‘must-win’ last chance opportunity to gain bowl
eligibility. Stanford knows how to accomplish the task on this fi eld having
gone 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS their last nine visits to Berkeley. The Cardinal is also
5-0 ATS in games after tackling USC. With the Bears in the process of pulling
their famous folding act (2-8 SU and ATS in their fi nal three games of the
season the past 3 years), the points look attractive.



La Tech over NEW MEXICO ST by 6
Well, the Techsters couldn’t cut it last week as double-digit home chalk so
we wonder how they’ll do here as road favorites? A quick scan of their stat
sheet shows that they had held their previous 4 foes to season low – or 2nd
low yards – until last week’s win-no-cover over Utah State. And they’ll be
facing a team playing its 11th straight game with no rest this season. Our
problem with the Bulldogs, however, is the fact that they are a paltry 3-17-1
ATS in games after putting 35 or more points on the scoreboard. This could
likely be the fi nal curtain for Aggies’ head coach Hal Mumme, rumored to be
on his way out. If this becomes a ‘win one for the Gipper’ game then NMSU
improves to 5-1 ATS in Last Home Games. If they want Hal’s ass out of Las
Cruces, it won’t matter. With that we’ll make like a vintage Mumme team
from the past and… pass.



Boise St over NEVADA by 1
With Fresno State currently in the tank, Nevada represents the fi nal obstacle
between the Broncos and their 2nd unbeaten regular season under thirdyear
head coach Chris Petersen. In order to accomplish the feat they will need
to get past a team that has been dominate at the line of scrimmage on both
sides of the ball this season. Chris Ault, one of our favorite coaches, has fl own
under the radar this season with a team that ranks No. 1 in the nation in
rushing offense (325 ORYPG) and No. 2 in rushing defense (64 DRYPG). The
Wolf Pack attack is keyed by 6’ 5” QB Colin Kaepernick who is also a top-fl ight
MLB pitching prospect. Kaepernick leads all FBS quarterbacks in rushing yards,
gaining 1,017 yards on 8.3 Yards Per Carry this season. Boise will certainly feel
the pressure from ‘the noose’ as they attempt to stay unbeaten in this tough
environment. To their credit, the Broncos are 7-1 ATS in this series, including
3-0 on this fi eld. With Nevada averaging more than 39 PPG at home under
Kaepernick, look for the Pack to improve to 15-2 ATS in the 2nd of back-toback
home games as Boise barely escapes by the skin of their teeth.




East Carolina over UAB by 3
Former pointspread king Skip Holtz is suddenly looking like pro golfer John
Daly – out of money and looking for love in all the wrong places. The main
culprit is an offense that’s playing like a gang of rum-soaked buccaneers,
staggering to an average of just 15 PPG in their previous three outings. Even
so, we were all set to buck the hapless Blazers thanks to this stat: UAB has gone
0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS in its fi nal six games over the past two years. However,
somebody’s breathed some new life into these dragons and they’ve gone 2-2
SU and ATS in the fi rst four of 08’s fi nal half-dozen. Even more tempting is the
fact the Blazers own a near-perfect 7-0-1 ATS mark as conference home dogs
when tackling a greater than .500 foe. With the Pirates already bowl-eligible
and playing like they’re lost at sea, we think UAB will grab the treasure by
sending out its seniors with an ATS victory today.



HOUSTON over Utep by 14
Houston’s big win over Tulsa last week (a featured 5* play atop the pages
of the PLAYBOOK) vaults the Cougars into a three-way tie for the top spot
in the Conference USA West Division standings. The good news for Houie is
that they control their own destiny. They will become Division champs with a
win today and next week against Rice. Already bowl eligible under 1st-year
head coach Kevin Sumlin, Houston takes the fi eld with a 4-1 ATS mark in
Last Home Games. The biggest hurdle they face, though, is that UTEP needs
one win in its fi nal two games to also gain bowl eligibility. After a rough
0-3 start, the Miners have come on strong, winnng 5 of their last 8 games.
El Paso is 10-1 ATS as a road dog with revenge, too. Can’t see the Cougars
playing to the level they did last week. It’s simply too much to ask.



UTAH over Byu by 7
The Holy War resumes in Salt Lake City and the setting is enormous as
undefeated Utah looks to possibly claim a BCS bowl berth with a win against
the Mormons. If revenge has a say – and it often times does – the Utes will
be primed to avenge a pair of heart-breaking losses suffered the last two
years in this series. Last season BYU QB Max Hall converted on a 4th and 18
from his own 12-yard line. Four plays later the Cougars scored for a 17-10
win. Two years ago Cougar QB John Beck scrambled and tossed a TD with 3.2
seconds remaining for 33-31 win, thus breaking Utah’s back both times. The
series favorite has struggled, going 3-13 ATS. On the fl ip side, though, the
series host has had a reversal of fortune of late, going 4-0 ATS the last four
meetings – that after being 0-11 ATS the previous eleven gatherings. Utah
has orchestrated its own magical fi nishes this season with four wins coming
by 3 or less points, including a dramatic comeback victory over TCU on this
fi eld just sixteen days ago. Here we go again.





MINNESOTA over Iowa by 3
The fi nal game at the Metrodome for the Gophers kicks off Saturday evening.
Next year Minnesota will move to the TCF Bank Stadium, a 50,300 seat oncampus
‘horseshoe’ style stadium. In the process, the Gophers and Hawkeyes
will be battling for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy, a award that has been in
existence since 1935. Iowa enters with wins in 4 of its last 5 contests, despite
having been outgained in each of the last four. Hence, they become a road
favorite that is ‘leaking oil’. Meanwhile, Minny looks to put an end to a 3-game
losing streak as they prepare to continue on to the bowling circuit. Given the
fact that bowl teams are 23-19 ATS as dogs in their Last Home Game, we look
for a big effort by the Golden boys in this Metrodome sendoff.



Oregon St over ARIZONA by 1
It’s sure nice to be able to control your own destiny. And when the reward
is a trip to the Rose Bowl it’s something you don’t want to let out of your
grasp. By winning out today and next week against Oregon, the Beavers
would return to Pasadena for their fi rst appearance in the Rose Bowl since
1965 when they lost to Michigan, 35-7. OSU enters on a major winning roll
having gone 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight games. They are also 8-1 SU and
ATS the last nine games in this series, having been ‘pick’ or favored all nine
times. The potential spoilers from Arizona are just 2-12 ATS in Last Home
Games and 7-22-1 ATS as conference home favorites of 3 or more points.
With Zona just 8-34 SU against .700 or greater opposition this decade, we’ll
grab the points with this ‘Puttin’ on the Stats’ live dog.



West Virginia over LOUISVILLE by 10
As the King once sang, “Kentucky rain keeps pouring down”. And not in
a good way for Louisville’s Steve Kragthorpe following last Friday’s loss to
Cincinnati. After dominating the Big East under Bobby Petrino’s watch, the
5-5 Cardinals are only above pathetic Syracuse in the conference standings.
To make matters worse for Kragthorpe, they’re just 4-3 SU at Papa John’s
Stadium this season and the home faithful are running out of patience with
their 2nd-year HC. The Cards need to win one of their fi nal two games to go
bowling but they probably won’t get it done against the Hillbillies, a team
that still has a shot at bagging the conference title. West Virginia has held
its last two opponents – Connecticut and Cincinnati – to season low yardage,
plus they’re an eye-popping 21-1 SU and 17-4-1 ATS as road favorites facing
a foe off a SU loss since 1993. With Louisville just 1-5 ATS as a home dog off
a loss of 7 or more points, it looks like Kragthorpe will have to set his sights
on Piscataway the following week to avoid a losing season. Oh, that cold
Kentucky rain!



MEMPHIS over C Florida by 4
Another case of the have-nots versus the wannabes in this Conference
USA matchup. The host Tigers need one more win to become bowl eligible
while the visitors already know they’ll be spending the postseason in
Orlando – not a bad place to enjoy the holidays but certainly not what
UCF coach George O’Leary had in mind coming off an 11-4 bowl season
in 2007. There’s not much data to support either side. The series host can
boast a 3-0 SUATS mark of late but Tommy West’s awful 2-14-1 ATS log as a
single-digit favorite quickly puts us back on the fence. The Golden Knights
did stop an 8-game In The Stats losing streak with last week’s upset of
Marshall but we’re not about to go on a crusade with the 3-7 Knights just
yet. Pass for now.



Unlv over SAN DIEGO ST by 19
The end can’t come soon enough for the woeful Aztecs. Even a miraculous
win here would leave SDSU with a 2-10 record, one of its worst seasons
ever, and probably the last for third-year head coach Chuck Long. With a
recent 5-1 ATS series edge (3-0 at home), the majority of our trends support
the Aztecs – but other angles and current form do not. UNLV must win this
matchup to reach magical win No. 6 and fortunately for the Rebels they
have the best of our ‘Sayonara’ SMART BOX to back them up tonight. Yes,
we know Vegas is a money-burning 2-16-1 ATS as chalk of 3 or more points
but when the sagacious square says to jump in, we usually just roll up our
sleeves and do it.



HAWAII over Idaho by 24
We’ve fi nally fi gured out why a downtrodden program like Idaho fi ghts so
hard to stay affi liated with the WAC: once every two years the Vandals get to
board a jet that fl ies straight to paradise when they take on the Warriors in
Honolulu. Hey, 2 wins this season and a trip to the 50th state to close out the
year? Not a bad deal for the Tater Heads. However, they have a snowball’s
chance of beating Hawaii here. Idaho has lost 4 in a row both SU and ATS
in the series, the Vandals are 0-4 ATS in Last Road Games and they’re a sad
1-7 ATS lately as conference dogs of more than 21 points. But don’t view
this inferior resume as a ‘buy sign’ on the hosts. The Warriors are a not-somenacing
6-13 ATS in conference games when playing with rest, including a
1-5 mark at Aloha Stadium. Still, you’ve got to respect Hawaii’s game effort
after stumbling to a 1-3 start without former coach June Rodriguez, err Jones,
patrolling the sidelines. Fact is the 5-5 Warriors can return to postseason play
with a win over Idaho today or lifeless Washington State next week. Since
Hawaii will be facing the pressure of “just win, baby” and Idaho won’t want
to interrupt its sunny vacation any longer than necessary, let’s call this a
sharp number and leave it somewhere over the rainbow.




LA Monroe over FLA INT’L by 1
The Golden Panthers kept their faint bowl hopes alive thanks to an upset win
over Arkie State last week. Technically they will need to win 2 of their fi nal
3 games to become bowl-eligible. Realistically they will likely need to win
all 3 games. Don’t look for that to happen. Not from a team that allows 100
YPG more than it gains. The reason they are favored today is that Monroe
coughs up 114 YPG more than it manufactures. The Warhawks were waxed,
59-0, last week at Ole Miss. The good news, though, is that they are 4-0 ATS
in games after being blanked. They also happen to be an eye-opening 16-3
ATS as road dogs of less than 14 points off a loss. Given the fact that FIU has
NEVER been favored in this series, look for Monroe to absorb any kind of
shock the Panthers may be entertaining.



MID TENN ST over N Texas by 14
Despite knocking off Maryland in Week Two of the season, a disappointing
4-6 record by the Blue Raiders likely means they will be home once again
for the holidays this season. One thing is for certain today, though, and it’s
the fact they struggle in games against the lowly Eagles. Sure they beat UNT
each of the last two seasons but prior to those wins they were 0-5 SU and
ATS in this series. On the fl ip side, the Eagles are 15-5 ATS against losing
teams off a win, including 7-1 ATS away. With MTSU snapping a 6-game ITS
(In The Stats) losing skid when they edged Western Kentucky, 313-281, in
their win last week, we have no interest whatsoever in this piece of chalk.
Take it or leave it.



TROY over La Lafayette by 10
Battle of league leaders with the winner in the pole position to grab
conference honors next week. The Ragin’ Cajuns bring the nation’s 3rd
ranked rush offense into the contest, pounding it on the ground for 284
RYPG. Their Achilles heel is the defense, one that allows 429 YPG. Today marks
the 7th road outing for La La, a team that could be tiring out. The defending
champion Trojans are one of only ten FBS teams to have outgained all – or all
but one – of their opponents this season. They are also 4-0 SU and ATS when
.400 or greater and playing off a loss in conference games. On a home fi eld
where they stand 66-11-1 SU, we envision Troy as a repeat champ.





Sunday, November 23rd
S FLORIDA over Connecticut by 1
How the mighty have fallen. After going 23-8 SU behind QB Mat Grothe the
last two-plus seasons, the Bulls have suddenly become sterile. That’s what
happens when you lose 4 of your last 5 games, with the only victory coming
over lowly Syracuse. The cause for the downfall is simple. Grothe tossed 3 INTs
in his fi rst 7 games and 8 in his last 3 contests. To make matters worse, USF is
0-5 ATS at home after allowing 28 or more points. They enter the weekend
tied with Louisville and Syracuse with just one conference win apiece. Yes,
they have revenge from a 22-15 loss at UConn last season but they are just
1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in revenge games this campaign. Look for the sled dogs
to improve to 8-0 ATS against winning teams that are off a double-digit loss
here this evening. Grab the points with the hard-trying Huskies.
<!-- / message -->
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK


5 BEST BET
New England over MIAMI by 14
Last week we tagged Denver as a Best Bet on these pages, citing
upstart Atlanta in a ‘step-up’ game. This is last week’s game in spades.
It starts with the fact that NFL home favorites who won 1 or 0 games
last year are 3-12 ATS when hosting an opponent off a loss (FYI: the
Dolphins are 0-3 ATS in that role this year). Then there’s that little
matter of revenge from a 38-13 loss New England suffered in Week
Three in Foxborough as 12.5-point favorites. Tie that in to the Pats’
14-5 ATS mark in division revenge games under Bill Belichick, including
9-0 SU and ATS the last nine games. Finally, toss in New England’s 11-0
ATS mark as a pick-or-dog off a loss in which they allowed 24 or more
points and you have the makings of a payback deluxe. Tony Sparano
and the Dolphins? Fuggedaboudit.


4 BEST BET
NEW ORLEANS over Green Bay by 13
Both teams line up under the Monday night lights off double-digit wins
and covers last week, jockeying for position in this year’s playoff picture
with four other teams each with 5 wins on the season. Thus, this is a
crucial game for both clubs. The 5-5 Pack has tanked on the road in
November in games off a double-digit win, going 2-11 ATS. Meanwhile,
thanks to their No. 1 ranked offense, the 5-5 Saints have managed to
outgain all but two foes in total yardage this season. With New Orleans
looking to ‘Prove It All Night’, expect the Saints to improve to 5-1 SU
and ATS at home in the Dome this season. N’Awlins, in a Brees



3 BEST BET
Indianapolis over SAN DIEGO by 10
All we can say is if Tommy Bowden, Phil Fulmer, Ron Prince, Brent Guy,
Greg Robinson and Tyrone Willingham can get pink-slipped during
the season then Norv Turner should be glad he’s not a college coach.
Otherwise he’d be pretty in pink, too. Picked by many to represent the
AFC in this year’s Super Bowl, the Chargers are 4-6 and praying last
year’s season-ending 6-0 fi nish is still engrained in the minds of this
year’s team. Sure, there have been some tough losses but when you’re
allowing 36 YPG more than you’re gaining there are no excuses. Enter
the Colts with double revenge from last year. The latter loss occurred
as 10.5-points favorites in the playoffs, sending them home one-anddone.
Indy’s 6-0 ATS mark in revenge games against losing teams sets
the table. Turner’s 4-9 SU and ATS mark as a favorite of 3 or less points
in games off a loss cements it. Get the slip out.
Indianapolis over SAN DIEGO by 10




Thursday, November 20th

PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati by 7
Some say playing to a tie is like kissing your sister. Not for NFL teams sporting
losing records. No siree. A tie is like a win to these guys. That’s confi rmed by
their inspired play in follow up games where losing teams are 10-4 ATS as
dogs in games off a tie, winning six games straight-up on the fi eld. While the
Steelers bring the league’s No. 1 ranked defense into this fray, the fact of the
matter is they are 1-7 ATS under head coach Mike Tomlin in games off a win
versus an avenging opponent that has won at least one game on the season.
Come here sis and gimme a kiss.



Sunday, November 23rd

CLEVELAND over Houston by 1
This is a ‘good news’ and ‘bad news’ scenario for the young Browns. That’s
because in their expansion history they are 100% perfect ATS in games after
playing on Monday night (2-0) but winless SU in those same games. More
importantly they are 10-3 ATS in games against teams off back-to-back losses
under Romeo Crennel. That keeps pace with Gary Kubiak’s putrid 1-8 ATS
mark on the road when seeking revenge (lost 27-17 at Cleveland last year).
Still, Houie’s 7-0 ATS mark as revenge dogs of 4 or more points off a loss
against losing opposition will likely keep us neutral here.



KANSAS CITY over Buffalo by 1
Bills take to the road following Monday night’s cruel loss against Cleveland
in desperate need of regaining their early-season form when Buffalo began
the year going 4-0. Since then they’ve fallen on hard times as they are
now on a 0-4 SU and ATS losing slide. According to our powerful database,
there is no relief to be found this week as road teams off a Monday night
game are a paltry 5-15 SU and 4-15-1 ATS if they were riding a 0-3 SU and
ATS slide entering the Monday nighter. Worse yet, Buffi e is 1-8 ATS off
back-to-back losses if favored in its last game against an opponent looking
to settle a score. While the Chiefs aren’t much, they have not tossed in the
towel and Herm Edwards is 4-1 SU in his last fi ve tries when hosting the
Bills. Again.



TENNESSEE over NY Jets by 4
10essee became just the 11th team in the NFL to win its fi rst ten games of the
season since 1970 when they refused to lose in a startling 24-14 comeback
win over the Jaguars last Sunday. It marked the 13th consecutive regular
season victory for the Titans. Unlike the 10-0 New England squad that was
installed as a walloping 25-point favorite against Philadelphia last season
(won by 3), Jeff Fisher’s troops continue to command little respect from the
oddsmaker and the sporting public alike. They burned us as a featured 5*
play on these pages last week and we won’t let that happen again – at least
not this week. While the Jets bring plenty of street cred with a 4-game win
streak into this contest, they did allow New England a season-high 511 yards
in last week’s 34-31 overtime victory. That’s certainly a cause for concern. But
if you’re 10essee you would most certainly be concerned about Jeff Fisher’s
anemic 1-16 ATS career mark as a home favorite of more than 3 points
against an opponent off a win of 10 or less points! Yikes.




DALLAS over San Francisco by 14
Tony Romo’s return was the catalyst needed to lead the Cowboys out of
their doldrums last week at Washington. No longer cellar dwellers in the
ever-tough NFC East Division, Dallas will now have its sight set on securing a
coveted post in this year’s playoffs. The Niners picked up their fi rst win under
interim head coach Mike Singletary in a 19-point romp over St. Louis, despite
the fact they lost the stats, 406-334. No surprise to see Frisco slip to 0-8 ATS as
a dog of 7 or more points off a double-digit SU and ATS win today.



Tampa Bay over DETROIT by 6
Life is good in Tampa. The Bucs are hitting on all cylinders, having held 3
of their last 4 opponents to season low yards. They are 4-1 since inserting
Jeff Garcia into the starting QB slot and currently reside one game behind
Carolina for the top spot in the NFC South Division. Life sucks in Detroit. The
auto industry is mired in quicksand and the Lions are in need of a bailout – or
is it the other way around? Regardless, edges go to the Lions in this game
with Tampa having a revenger against New Orleans on deck. That and the
fact the Bucs are 0-8 ATS as road chalk against an opponent off back-to-back
losses makes Detroit worth a look. With a 6-0 ATS series mark, including 5-1
ATS on this fi eld, we’ll hold our noses and growl with the Lions.



Philadelphia over BALTIMORE by 3
Despite putting up solid numbers each week, the Eagles continue to freefall.
One of six NFC teams with 5 victories, they now need to convert statvictories
into wins on the scoreboard if they want to avoid missing out on
the postseason for the 2nd straight year. It’s our feeling the Ravens are
about to become the Redskins of the AFC. Baltimore is 6-0 SU and ATS this
season against losing teams but 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS against .500 or better
opposition. With that, look for Philly to improve to 13-2 ATS as a road dog
against a .500 or greater non-division foe here today.



ST. LOUIS over Chicago by 1
It’s our opinion that Lovie Smith should reconsider the Tennessee offer and
pack up before it’s too late. Since losing to the Colts in the 2006 Super Bowl
his troops are 12-14 SU and 11-14-1 ATS, entering today’s game off a 34-
point loss last week. In fact, Smith is a not-so-lovie 1-9-1 ATS as a favorite of
more than 2 points against non-division opponents off back-to-back losses.
With the ‘Ugly Pig’ Rams 12-1 ATS at home with revenge off a division game,
an upset here just might put Knoxville back in the picture.



Minnesota over JACKSONVILLE by 3
It’s a good thing for Jack Del Rio that Norv Turner still resides in the league.
If he weren’t, Jack would be the leading contender for ‘bust of the year’
honors. Off a 12-win campaign in 2007, the Jags were a hands-down choice
to capture the AFC South Division in 2008. Instead it’s been thumbs down
as Jacksonville is just one leg up on last place Houston. Sure, they might be
11-0 ATS from Game Eight out off a double-digit SU and an ATS loss but
you won’t fi nd us laying points into a team with the better defense and the
better running game. Not with a team that launched a franchise record 10
punts last week. Vikes or pass.



Carolina over ATLANTA by 4
Falcons will dress in the home team locker for the 3rd straight week when
they host the NFC South Division leader Carolina. Like last week, this too
becomes a ‘step-up’ game of sorts for the Dirty Birds. They’ll be looking
to avenge a 24-9 loss suffered in Week Four at Carolina knowing they are
0-4 ATS the last four games as a host in this series. With the Panthers 9-0
ATS as dogs in the 1st of back-to-back roadies, we’ll gladly oblige and take
whatever the oddsmaker is offering.



DENVER over Oakland by 7
The Raiders and their pathetic offense (13 PPG, dead last in the NFL) fi nally
rang the register at Miami last week as the double-digit weight was simply
too much for the Fish to handle. That may be the case here, too, as the
Broncos are 0-9 ATS as home favorites of 5 or more points off a SU underdog
win. They are also 3-12 ATS at home in November off a win against an
avenging opponent. No surprise to see Oakland improve to 11-1 ATS in
Game Eleven of the season.



Washington over SEATTLE by 6
A matchup of two teams going down the drain faster than dope during a
DEA bust. Despite the return of QB Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks were
pounded in the stats for the 7th straight game as the Mike Holmgren
retirement train has derailed. The Redksins choked away a chance to put
Dallas in the ground and now look to rebound off back-to-back SU and ATS
defeats. The feeling here is Jim Zorn would like nothing more than to win at
his old stomping grounds. Skins!




ARIZONA over NY Giants by 3
A possible playoff preview in the desert matches a pair of Top 10 ranked
offenses and defenses. Big Blue’s road success is well documented (12-2 SU
and ATS away since last season) and they are riding a 5-game SU and ATS win
skein entering this contest. Arizona has outgained all four opponents since
its Bye Week and has won each of its last 7 home games (4-0 this season).
With Washington, Philadelphia and Dallas up next for the G-Men, look for
the Cardinals to have their day in the sun (provided the roof is open) as New
York drops to 2-16 ATS in November off a non-division game against an
opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Zona wins the fi rst round










3 BEST BET Cardinals OVER

4 BEST BET Rams OVER

5 BEST BET Chiefs UNDER
<!-- / message -->
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
LOGICAL APPROACH

COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Byu + 6 over UTAH - The "Holy War" has produced some very exciting games in recent years but so much is at stake this season that anything short of another nail biter would be a surprise. Utah is 11-0 and a win all but assures the Utes a BCS Bowl bid - their second cracking of the BCS party in 5 seasons. With a win also comes the Mountain West Conference Title - an honor that can be shared by BYU if the 10-1 Cougars can pull the upset of their most bitter rival (TCU could make it a 3 way tie with a win over Air Force). BYU's lone blemish was a one sided loss at TCU in mid season and BYU played sluggishly for a few weeks afterwards before again regaining their dominating form the past few weeks. Utah needed a late TD to defeat TCU when they hosted the Horned Frogs a few weeks back in a game in which TCU far outplayed the Utes. BYU has won the last 2 against Utah and the last 3 games as well as 9 of the last 10 have been decided by a TD or less. Both teams have had stellar seasons and while Utah plays with the prospects of an unbeaten season and the BCS Bowl, BYU is motivated both by the chance to ruin their main foe's season as well as sharing a conference title and improving their Bowl bid. BYU wins 23-20.



Other Featured College Selections

Illinois - 2 ½ over NORTHWESTERN - When Northwestern is having a successful season is's a sure sign that the Big 10 overall is having a down season. And such is the case in 2008 as Northwestern is 8-3 after a win at Michigan and headed to a decent Bowl game. At 5-6 Illinois needs a win to become Bowl eligible just a season after representing the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl. Illinois is the more talented team but has often played down to the level of their competition, a trait that plagued coach Ron Zook in his days as coach of Florida. But with a Bowl bid on the line, the clearly better offense and a defense the equal of Northwestern a good effort from the Illini can be expected. This has been an even series over the past decade with each team winning 5 times. Illinois ended a 4 game Northwestern winning streak last season with a 41-22 home win. Northwestern has lost 2 of their last 3 home games and did not have to face Penn State this season, a foe against whom Illinois was competitive in a 38-20 road loss. Illinois gets a solid victory, winning 34-23.


Stanford + 9 ½ over CALIFORNIA - The "Big Game" will always be remembered for the "Band Play" of a quarter century ago but there have been many entertaining and meaningful games between these rivals since and this year's game should be no exception. At 6-4 Cal is considered a disappointment given the talent on hand and reputation of coach Jeff Tedford. Stanford has continued to show progress under second year coach Jim Harbaugh and at 5-6 the Cardinal becomes Bowl eligible with an upset win here. Stanford pulled the upset last year, ending a 5 game win streak by Cal. Stanford did cover in 2 of those last 3 losses. Both teams played USC the past two weeks with both losing in what were largely competitive games despite the final scores. Cal was outgained 411-165 in a 17-3 road loss while Stanford lost at home, 45-23, while being outgained 418-367. Cal has the better defensive stats but the offensive stats are fairly even. Stanford will put forth their best effort as their regular season ends this week. Cal should not hold back as they end their season next week against lowly Washington. Stanford keeps it close as Cal wins but by just 27-23.


Mississippi + 4 ½ over LSU - Ole Miss is enjoying an expected resurgence under first year coach Houston Nutt and at 6-4 will be headed to a Bowl for the first time in 5 seasons. The Rebels have a solid QB leading the offense and rate the edge at that position over LSU. The Tigers are 7-3 following a frantic fourth quarter comeback against Troy last week, overcoming a 31-3 deficit to win 40-31. LSU has struggled more than expected all season as their lowly 2-7 ATS record shows. Their defense has been vulnerable and they suffered one sided losses to Georgia and Florida. Ole Miss upset Florida on the road 31-30 earlier this season, a sign of the progress they are making. All 4 of their losses are by a TD or less as they seek to end a 6 game losing streak to LSU. Their last 3 losses on this field have been by 3, 3 and 1 point. The teams are very similar statistically. Ole Miss is tied for our third most improved team this season and enters this game having won 3 straight. This is their best chance in years to pull the upset over an underachieving LSU team that has not looked even in several of their wins. Mississippi pulls the upset, winning 31-27.



Money Line Recommendations College:

Buffalo
OHIO U
Byu
Mississippi
<!-- / message -->
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
LOGICAL APPROACH

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: New England + 2 over MIAMI - This is a huge revenge game for the Patriots who were blasted at home earlier this season by Miami, losing 38-13. This is the third straight Divisional game for New England who split the last two games. They have a few extra days of rest after last Thursday's overtime loss to the Jets. Miami is clearly an improved team and is tied with New England at 6-4 so this game is huge as a win would also give Miami tie breaker edges over the Pats. But it's rare we get New England as a Divisional underdog playing with revenge under coach Bill Belichick. Pats' QB Matt Cassel continues to improve and New England's season may be on the line here. The Patriots have battled injuries at numerous positions on both sides of the ball throughout the season yet remain in Playoff contention, a testament to the franchises's pedigree and the ability of others to step up and fill the leadership void created by injuries to QB Tom Brady and several key defenders. Miami does match up nicely statistically against the Pats but the intangibles greatly favor the experiences visitors. New England wins 23-16.

Other Featured NFL Selections :

DALLAS - 11 over San Francisco - Dallas was sparked by the return of QB Tony Romo is Sunday night''s 14-10 win at Washington. Though Romo was far from sharp, his presence gave the 'Boys a much needed boost that should carry over for the next few weeks. San Francisco has played inspired football for new coach Mike Singletary the past two weeks but it must be noted that the 49ers' last three games have been against their three NFC West Division rivals. In fact, the Niners could suffer a letdown following their blowout win over St Louis last week. The huge step up in class shows here as Dallas is poised to explode. The Cowboys are the clearly better defensive team, especially against the pass which would create problems for San Fran if forced to play from behind. Dallas continues to play with need as their realistic goal is now a Wild Card and they are in a battle with potentially a half dozen teams for just two spots. Dallas wins handily, 34-13. DETROIT + 8 ½ over Tampa Bay - Detroit remains winless but continues to play hard. Their offense should show gradual improvement as recently signed starting QB Duante Culpepper gets comfortable in the system. There's no doubt but that Tampa is clearly the better team but the Buccs have struggled on the road this season, with all 5 road games decided by 4 points or less including an overtime win at lowly Kansas City. With 3 straight Divisional games on deck, this could be a flat spot for the visitors. Detroit defeated Tampa here last season so there is reason for confidence from coach Rod Marinelli against his former employer. Statistically it is tough to make a case FOR Detroit. Rather, the better case here is made AGAINST Tampa Bay given that the Lions continue to play hard. This could be the Lions' best chance for a win considering their upcoming schedule. But the generous line leaves plenty of room for a competitive loss - a more likely scenario given Tampa's losing road record but perfect home mark, a sharp contrast. Tampa Bay wins but by just 21-17.

SEATTLE + 3 ½ over Washington - Matt Hasselbeck was back at QB for Seattle last week and rust from inactivity showed. His timing should be better this week against a Redskins team that is in a Divisional sandwich between Dallas and the Giants. Washington is also playing their first road game in nearly a month. Conditions are ideal for an upset with Seattle, when healthy, a talented team. And they have knocked Washington out of the Playoffs twice in the past three season on this field, including 35-14 this past January. The 'Skins have not been sharp in losing their last 2 games and can not benefit from the cross country trip. With improvement expected from the Seattle offense, the defense should perform better than it has most of the season as it's been under pressure to bail out an ineffective and injured offense. Seattle has historically enjoyed a strong home field but is just 1-4 this season. Building upom last week's improved effort in a loss to Arizona, Seattle pulls the upset over a team in the midst of a slump. Seattle wins 24-17.




Best of the NFL Totals

Houston/Cleveland OVER 49
N Y Jets/Tennessee UNDER 41
New England/Miami UNDER 42
Philadelphia/Baltimore UNDER 39
Minnesota/Jacksonville UNDER 41
Carolina/Atlanta UNDER 42 ½
Indianapolis/San Diego OVER 49 ½
Green Bay/New Orleans OVER 51 ½




Money Line Recommendations

CLEVELAND
KANSAS CITY
New England
SEATTLE
<!-- / message -->
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,899
Messages
13,439,373
Members
99,340
Latest member
fulfillworks
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com