Service Plays Wednesday 11/19/08

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The Soccer Guru record on games 9-0-4

todays picks: portugal & iceland (international friendlies)

He didnt mention protecting either, personally in my opinion, if u were, id protect iceland, but thats me.

kidman232 said:

The Soccer Guru record on games 9-0-4

todays picks: portugal & iceland (international friendlies)

He didnt mention protecting either, personally in my opinion, if u were, id protect iceland, but thats me.

Click to expand...

Does he normally suggest betting the tie if needed?

Tim Trushel mac goy

20* c. michigan
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Cavaliers (-6) last night.

Today it's the Hawks. The deficit is 705 sirignanos.

Wild Bill

Central Michigan +7 (5 units)
Over 55 Ball St-CMU (5 units)

Jim Feist

(519) CHICAGO BULLS
(520) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Take "(519) CHICAGO BULLS"
Chicago Bulls (5-6 SU) have covered three straight games after their cover at the Lakers on Tuesday night. The Bulls trailed most of the game, but made it close at the final, losing 116-109. Ben Gordon leads the Bulls with 21.3 ppg, while Drew Gooden leads in rebounds with 8.6 rpg. Derrick Rose, their rookie guard, is second on the team in scoring with 18.9 ppg. The Blazers (6-4) have been a surprise team this year. They are led by Brandon Roy (21.3 ppg) with Joel Przybilla grabbing a team-leading 8.4 rebounds per game. Greg Oden has only played in four games so far this season, did score 13 points with eight boards in 24 minutes off the bench Saturday night. The Blazers are also coming off a game last night in which they lost at Golden State, 111-106. The Bulls have covered seven of the last nine games in this series and we expect them to cover tonight as well.

Dave Cokin

(521) NC WILMINGTON
(522) WAKE FOREST

Take "(522) WAKE FOREST"

DCI NHL

11/19/08 Predictions
Season: 94-59 (.613)

BOSTON 3, Buffalo 2
N.Y. RANGERS 3, Vancouver 2
ANAHEIM 3, Washington 2

Insider Sports Report

Washington/Atlanta (NBA) OVER 201.5

Jimmy The Moose

I'd rather play this pick as opposed to someone that counts a loss as a tie in his record...

Free recommendation:
Ukraine vs. Norway
November 19th, 2008 / 19:00
Soccer - International Friendly
Low stakes here, as International matches have a bigger risk factor due to the unpredictability of the substitutions, and the attitude of the team when the game is not official. Still, regarding both teams recent form, we can see that Norway is going through a rough patch, winless in their last 7 games (official and friendlies), meaning they don't enjoy a win since November 21st 2007 - a year ago! Ukraine, on the other hand, has been performing quite well, and has big hopes of qualifying in a group they share favoritism with England and Croatia. Historically, these teams met only twice, eight years ago in the world cup qualifier, with Ukraine drawing at home and winning in Norway.
VictoriousPlay: Ukraine (-0.5)

Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take Ball State (-7) over Central Michigan (NCAA Power Play)
7:00 PM EST

Ball State
• 14-4 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons
• 5-1 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games
• 11-1 ATS after a game where they forced one or less turnovers

well said

Chip, that was one of the most coherrant, unbiased, straightforward comments I have seen in a long time. Great point and done is an excellent tactful manner.

Chip Hilton said:

Kidman -- thanks for posting the soccer guru and I hope you continue to do so. I completely understand you posting a 9-0-4 record based on your system of covering your bet with a tie. However in defense of cut-paste, I think it would be helpful to post units along with this record. It doesn't matter to date since he hasn't "lost" outright yet. Although when you are winning, you are more or less winning only a half unit (or maybe a bit more) by giving some back with the coverage on the tie. Also you will approximately break-even on a tie based on how you are betting or by his recommendation. However, and this is the important point of requiring units and the point cut-paste was trying to make, is that when the guru does end up losing a game outright (which will happen at some point), you are actually losing close to one and a half units! One unit on the loss (or more with juice) and a half unit (or close to it) on the coverage for the tie.

Thus, if you follow me on these examples of possible records, it can be misleading and that's what cut-paste was trying to avoid.

9-0-4 (or 13-4 as you said you could put it) would be up about 4 1/2 units: 9 wins with losses on the ties giving back close to 1/2 unit each (maybe a bit less -- to complex for this space and example but you know what I mean) for 4 1/2 and breakeven on the four ties.

Now, if say you were 9-9-4 (I'm sure that won't be the case -- example only) you would not be even but down 9 units! You would be up about 4 1/2 units for the 9 wins (as explained above), breakeven for the four ties, but down 13 1/2 units on the losses (9 units on the outright loss and about 4 1/2 more on the tie coverage) leaving you down 9 units with this ".500" record.

That's what I think he wants people to understand. I'm sorry CPAW to clutter as you know I get on people and frustrated with all the useless requests. However, I wanted to clarify that while this soccer run is impressive and I thank Kidman for posting and hope he continues to do so, other people should realize there is more risk than you may initially recognize. Thanks again Kidman as ANY help with soccer is helpful to me.

Click to expand...

Cappers Access

<TABLE width="90%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Wed (CFB)</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Ball St</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>C. Michigan</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>7</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>C. Michigan</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Wed (CBB)</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Nebraska</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>TCU</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>3-</TD><TD align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>Nebraska</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Jr. Sports

NCAA HOOPS

25 units - Wake Forest

Drew Gordon - Courtesy of bigdaveyt and big coors light - paid/confirmed

1. 100,000♦ Central Michigan

2. 50,000♦ Murray St

1. Central Michigan- Needless to say, this is a HUGE game for both teams, and while on paper Ball State may "seem" like the right play here, they're not playing on paper, they're playing at Mount Pleasant, where the Chippewas are at their best...

While critics of this play will point out that Ball State is 10-0 SU & 7-2 ATS, these same people aren't digging deep enough into the numbers. Everyone knows the Cardinals record, but even that's a bit deceiving, because Ball State is just 1-2 ATS over their last 3 games. Not only that, but there's a moutain of evidence suggesting the Chippewas will circle the wagons tonight, including the fact they're 10-2 ATS at home in conference, 9-2-1 ATS as a MAC pup, and 4-1 ATS as dogs this season!

Then there's last season, where the Chippewas went into the Cardinals house and beat them 58-38 as 10-point road dogs. Granted, that opens the door for revenge tonight, but that also proves that QB Dan LeFevour can dominate this Ball State defense. LeFevour was downright awesome in that contest, compiling 506 of the Chippewas school-record 658 total yards of offense! The fact he's coming off one of his best games of the year in his last start, can only mean good things as he returns home tonight.

Finally, let's consider public perception. Let's make one thing clear: if Ball State would've played Georgia, like Central Michigan did, they would not be undefeated. Also, because the Chippewas struggled at Northern Illinois last week, plenty of average bettors are fading them like crazy tonight. Fact is the Chippewas got caught looking ahead to this contest, and any real 'Capper could tell you that! Look for a much better effort this time around from Central Michigan, as a win here would lock up the MAC West title.

Bottom line, Central Michigan has been flying under the radar all season, and with so much on the line, at home, against a foe they've beaten 5 straight times, look for them to deliver in this critical spot, as Lefevour goes off once again tonight.

Take Central Michigan plus the points over Ball State as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Murray State- Interesting match up here, as coach Brady begins his rebuilding project at Arkansas State, after getting pushed out of LSU. Given time, he'll surely bring them to the top of the Sun Belt, but right now, he's still a couple years away and it'll show against visiting Murray State tonight.

So what's the difference between these two teams? The Racers return 4 starters, are in their 3rd year under head coach Billy Kennedy, and are a program on the upswing right now. They have a ton of upperclassmen talent, including junior F Danero Thomas and senior PG Kevin Thomas. The Indians meanwhile, are in the midst of a rebuilding project, after going 10-20 last year, including just 5-13 in the Sun Belt. They have balance throughout the roster, but players are still adjusting to coach Brady's system, and I'm hardly convinced yet.

Also, one has to consider the fact the Indians are without F Yima Chia-Kur, who averaged 11 ppg and was a key contributor to this team last season in his just his freshman year. He was a solid player inside and out, shooting almost 38% from 3-point, and his absence will be sorely missed on a team without enough talent to make up for his loss.

Bottom line, ironically both of these teams opened up with the same cupcake opponent, Lyon, and the scores were almost identical blowout wins. However, look for Murray State to differentiate itself from a rebuilding Arkansas State program tonight on the road. Racers are starting to flourish in coach Kennedy's system, as he's slowly, but surely has built this program. Time will come for the Indians, but that time is NOT today.

Take Murray State plus the points over Arkansas State in this college hoops match up.

Larry Ness Wednesday

Weekly Wipeout Winner-NBA

Portland


Non-Conf GOW NCAAB

St. Louis Billikens


NCAAF Conf. GOY 20 Star

Central Mich

Lance's Lock

Todays play: Central Michigan +7'
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