Week 12 sucker bet!

C-Gold · Nov 23, 2008

I feel strongly that the Patriots getting hit at an 80% clip is a sucker bet. Miami opened at -3, and even small home fav's cover at a winning clip, but the line ran all the way down to Miami +1.

The last time I really remember that dramatic of a line movement without key injury news, was when a weak scheduled USC was sitting at -3 against a much tougher tested Oklahoma in the Nattional championship game some years ago.

USC went from -3 to maybe +3 and we all know how that turned out.

This isn't as dramatic, but I believe the ESPN U folks keep talking about beating Bellicheck twice in one year and revenge and blah blah blah. Just like giving Bellicheck 2 weeks to prepare for a super bowl huh? Eli Manning in the SB was supposed to shit the bed vs Bellicheck.

Last time these two teams played...
Miami won 38-13 on the road
Chad Pennington threw 17 completions, and 3 inc 85%
Ronnie ran for over 100, and had 4 TDs
Ricky had 98 yards, almost 2 hundred yard rushers

Cassel had under 150 yards
NE's top rb had 27 yards

The game is in miami where their pass D is actually better, the game is on grass, and there is wind.

The only reason people are pounding the Patriots, is because that lazy eyed fuck head Stuart Scott and his buddies are hyping up Bellicheck.

Miami is a much better team this year, and Parcells knows BB. This one will be close, and the oddsmakers that opened the game up at -3, know much more about football and handicapping than then blind 80% taking the Patriots.

I'm out. GL, don't say I didn't warn you.:toast:

GasMan · Nov 23, 2008

Lets see..so you actually think ESPN tries to sway bettors opinions?

Kinda like the hour long suckfest yesterday on Mike Leech and the Red Raiders....?

Interesting concept...

C-Gold · Nov 23, 2008

People were shocked when USC was -3, when they didn't play anybody. OU was pounded at such a clip the line physically moved 6 points, and the Trojans won in a blowout.

I did think OU was going to win, but being a vet handicapper, I played the Trojans on line movement alone. You either make the damn game a no play, or you side with the house. You never want to be on the side of all the public money... The last time I remember I was, was the Patriots @ Steelers for their 15-1 playoff game and I was with the dummys and we beat the sharpes. This is NOT that day. I know some might argue it is, but NE is not a 1 loss team at home getting 3.....

Miami killed the Patriots, and are better than you think. The Patriots haven't really played much either, and aren't as good on the road. Miami's defense is better at home. I watched the SD game and know.

C-Gold · Nov 23, 2008

Gas Man said:
Lets see..so you actually think ESPN tries to sway bettors opinions?

Kinda like the hour long suckfest yesterday on Mike Leech and the Red Raiders....?

Interesting concept...

Every dope in America see's the clowns at ESPN hyping up this game, and how the Patriots won't lose twice to the same team in a season blah blah blah. Show me where it says in the NFL record book that Miami can't beat Bellicheck twice in one year?

Maybe he will try and tape their defensive signals and cry when he losses this game.

CaptFlippy · Nov 23, 2008

Gas Man said:
Lets see..so you actually think ESPN tries to sway bettors opinions?

Kinda like the hour long suckfest yesterday on Mike Leech and the Red Raiders....?

Interesting concept...

The suckfest you refer to was actually only 2 minutes, at least for me; I changed the channel fast but not fast enough! It's pretty sad I watch football now listening to music! Monday nights with Kornhole are the worst!

C-Gold · Nov 23, 2008

CaptFlippy said:
The suckfest you refer to was actually only 2 minutes, at least for me; I changed the channel fast but not fast enough! It's pretty sad I watch football now listening to music! Monday nights with Kornhole are the worst!

You mean you don't like to see Kornholer interview Tom Cruise and Charles Barkley during an NFL game... to the point where they show them, instead of the field of play???

How about him talking about Mike Singeltary's pants coming off 20 times during a game? Any type of incident and the guy can't shut his mouth.

As shitty as Kornholer is, he still might be better than Theisman, Ron Pitts, Soloman Wilcotts, Bryant Gumbel, Brians balldinger or any of the other idiots.

C-Gold · Nov 23, 2008

I'm glad to see the Patriots are the #1 play at the Hilton contest, and by a signifigant margin.

Fading the Hilton contest is always a good idea.

GasMan · Nov 23, 2008

I agree..why is it so hard to get a colorful personality that doesnt aggravate the livin shit out of everybody?

canabiz · Nov 23, 2008

Gold, this game reminded me of the Dallas-Washington matchups...Washington came into the Big D and pretty much blasted the Boys, a few weeks later, they had a rematch in the capital and the line was Dallas -1. I am sure that left a lot of bettors scratching their heads.

Dallas was as much a public team as New England. Miami came into Foxboro and blasted the Pats as well and now they are only a -1 favorite, pretty much the same personnel save for Maroney/Jordan/Harrison who are now on the shelf for the Pats.

You don't think the casual bettors will look at this and sign up for the Dolphins right away ?

C-Gold · Nov 23, 2008

No I don't. The casual betters are more likely to bet a public team, and a team that ESPN promotes religiously.

- BB can't lose twice to Sporano/Pennington
- The Patriots were 15-1 last year
- Cassell has looked better
- Cassel + the Patriots have looked better on Nat TV

- Miami hasn't beat anyone ( neither has NE)
- NE is looking for revenge ( isn't every team trying to win every game).

The sharps see ...
- a Miami team that systematically ran all over the patriots for over 200 yards and 4 TDs
- Pennington, a QB who was an efficient 17/20
- A strong run defense, at home, in a game on grass, with some winds to help shield that pass D. Miami's defense is stronger at home vs on the road. They give up under 175 per game in the air at home, and Porter has been a strong pass rusher.
- Miami was about a 4 win team last year, but really only won 1 game. For them to be in this game, and at home, it is huge.
- Pennington might not be pretty, but he is the vet, and cassell is still the guy in his what, 12th start?
- Miami is the suprise team of the year, and invented the biggest thing of the year... the wildcat. It's their year... NE has done respectable without brady, but Miami has "it" going for them.

The line has already swung 4 points. Now you tell me, if you go find a game at your book, and try and buy 4 points, how much will that cost you? Your line might be -160 or so. The reason is because Miami wins this game outright and shocks the Patriot nation, the public, the hilton contest and everybody else out there.

winbet · Nov 23, 2008

While you are entitled to your opinion like everyone else, what makes me laugh is how yours is backed up by so called sharps while the opposite views are passed off as opinions of complete Idiots. I can assure you that's not the case and if you wish to make gambling pay over time you need to take off the tunnel vision goggles. Best of luck with your bet which will be bolstered if Seymour doesnt play. :drink:

ChuckBooms · Nov 23, 2008

I happen to agree with you on this one, C-Gold. I think Miami at home is a nice proposition. Home Field generally doesn't mean that much to me in the NFL, but I think the dolphins will have an advantage here.

I realize Belichick's record after a loss......but that's really Tom Brady's record after a loss. I also think the fins pass rush will affect Cassell.

HonestRob · Nov 23, 2008

Holy shit! The line's gone from even to Miami +2 since last night.

winbet · Nov 23, 2008

Honest Rob said:
Holy shit! The line's gone from even to Miami +2 since last night.

And no way thats all public money. :missingte :drink:

C-Gold · Nov 23, 2008

winbet said:
While you are entitled to your opinion like everyone else, what makes me laugh is how yours is backed up by so called sharps while the opposite views are passed off as opinions of complete Idiots. I can assure you that's not the case and if you wish to make gambling pay over time you need to take off the tunnel vision goggles. Best of luck with your bet which will be bolstered if Seymour doesnt play. :drink:

Depending on where you check your lines, 70 to 80% of people are on the Patriots. What does that tell you?

I'm not one to usually run around and talk about public vs sharpes, but this one is lopsided enough to mention.

There are plenty more public idiots than sharpes out there, so what does that tell you?

The oddsmakers opened at -3, and the line is now +2....

The closest thing I ever remember is USC-3, turning into USC +3, and USC crushed them in that game.

People will talk about BB after a loss, BB playing a team he lost to, but that is all the past and with brady.

C-Gold · Nov 23, 2008

Chuck Booms said:
I happen to agree with you on this one, C-Gold. I think Miami at home is a nice proposition. Home Field generally doesn't mean that much to me in the NFL, but I think the dolphins will have an advantage here.

I realize Belichick's record after a loss......but that's really Tom Brady's record after a loss. I also think the fins pass rush will affect Cassell.

Homefield isn't so much about the field ( although some teams are built for domes, some for grass etc.), but some players can't play on the road...

Matt Cassell is a young QB in a big game on the road. Sometimes people chock on the road, or in big games etc. ( donovan in big games).

NE's defense is aging, might be missing seymour, will be missing adalis thomas, and got shredded like swiss cheese against the fins at home for 200 yards.

Also, last week the steelers game was obviously fixed, if any game is going to be fixed this week, take Miami and be part of the 20% that did so and ignored the espn pregame bullshit BB after a loss shit.

STACKSONDECK · Nov 23, 2008

must win for pats or their playoff hopes are done with. i will be one of the suckers today.

C-Gold · Nov 23, 2008

STACKS ON DECK said:
must win for pats or their playoff hopes are done with. i will be one of the suckers today.

The Patriots won the SB in 2001, but didn't even make the playoffs in 2002 with Tom Brady...

What makes you think a team led my Matt Cassell, a RB by comitte, no A. Thomas, an aging defense etc is entitled to the playoffs? They aren't.

Miami wants to make the playoffs just as much as the Patriots.

degengambler · Nov 23, 2008

4 point move ain't public

C-gold
i don't handicap and keep stats, etc.
I do know the public doesn't move a line
4 points---only the wise guy betting
syndicates, who do know more than the linesmakers
no intelligent bookmaker moves his lines
on joe public--that's how his sharp bettors
will beat him

best of luck to you and the dolphins

a b

Loren78 · Nov 23, 2008

The Pats were never the dog here...as evidenced by where the line has gone....stay away from the Pats...

Week 12 sucker bet!

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