Would you AUTOMATICALLY bet a NBA side you had no opinion, if 2 pts diff of Pinny

Iceman · Nov 29, 2008

2 questions:

1) Lets say you call your local and he has a NBA game 2 points off the Pinny line. He has Denver at -3 versus Chicago and the line EVERYWHERE is Denver -5/-5.5.

Your local is your only out you have.

Would you bet Denver -3 even though you have zero opinion of this game or would you still pass?

2) How about if you like the other side, Chicago in the game. Would you take the dog +3, losing 2 points to Pinny, pass the game or bet Denver -3?

I will be back with my answer later. I have had this happen a lot with an old local back in the day. I am really curious as too hear how others would play this, espically the second question, where you like the other side.

D2bets · Nov 29, 2008

On the assumption that you have no conscience or care about beating your locals brains out and taking off lines against him, then yes, bet it every time. It is unquestionably +EV.

If you like the dog side better then just take the -3 and double up on the +5.5, assuming no limit issues.

Iceman · Nov 29, 2008

D2bets said:
On the assumption that you have no conscience or care about beating your locals brains out and taking off lines against him, then yes, bet it every time. It is unquestionably +EV.

If you like the dog side better then just take the -3 and double up on the +5.5, assuming no limit issues.

Remember I said no other outs to play the dog back at. It's just this book is your only place.

Now quit picking apart my question D2, LOL. I knew you would do that:lolBIG:

How would you handle the 2nd question now?

Santo · Nov 29, 2008

Take -3, barring any exceptional circumstance (breaking injury etc), the market knows better than you.

sparticus · Nov 29, 2008

Not everytime, hmm??

Iceman · Nov 29, 2008

Santo said:
Take -3, barring any exceptional circumstance (breaking injury etc), the market knows better than you.

I 100% agree. In fact if you had another out I think if you had to middle it you would bet Denver -3 for more money even though you love Chicago +5.

Getting 2 points better then market numbers in the NBA is exceptional and you can't outhandicap that in the longrun.

I still to this day have trouble following this rule, esp with NFL. Though I obviously dont see numbers that much off nowadays but you should always take the better number over your own wager, causing you too have too switch your pick, which sucks bad if/when you lose.

I am willing to bet most people dont do this. A) they dont bet an off number if they dont have an opinion on it. I bet the majority just pass the game altogether and B) I bet most would not change their play if faced with the same situation as the 2nd question described. Most people think "this one time it is okay too go with my play instead of the good number."

Iceman · Nov 29, 2008

Lets say all week you are sold on betting the NY Jets -7.5 against the Denver Bronocs, it is your best bet of the weekend.

You wake up tomorrow and you go to SIA and they have Denver +10 +100 (which isnt entirely out of the question, LOL). You then check all the other books and the numbers is between -7.5 and -8. SIA is your only out you have money in, now what?

Now you are faced with having to go against your favorite play of the week.

I ask what pct of people would lay the -10 on the Jets? I bet more then 50% would still take the Jets and lay the 10 and I would say very very few would take the Broncos +10? Agree? Disagree?

The thing is taking the Broncos +10 +100 is a no brainer here. I will admit I try and be disciplined in my approach everyday but even this would be hard for me to take Denver.

nimue77 · Nov 29, 2008

Clearly a yes to #1.

Taking +3 because you like the team would be really, really stupid with such a -EV.

The football example you gave in the last post is not nearly as big of a +EV difference. Only 1 key number difference whereas every number is key in basketball. Might be reasonable just to pass it up +10 if you have a strong opinion on the other side. Of course, if you have other outs you may as well middle it.

VIEJODINOSAUR · Nov 29, 2008

Iceman said:
2 questions:

1) Lets say you call your local and he has a NBA game 2 points off the Pinny line. He has Denver at -3 versus Chicago and the line EVERYWHERE is Denver -5/-5.5.

Your local is your only out you have.

Would you bet Denver -3 even though you have zero opinion of this game or would you still pass?

2) How about if you like the other side, Chicago in the game. Would you take the dog +3, losing 2 points to Pinny, pass the game or bet Denver -3?

I will be back with my answer later. I have had this happen a lot with an old local back in the day. I am really curious as too hear how others would play this, espically the second question, where you like the other side.

I would pass unless I liked the play......if I had only one out...

oldirtyku · Nov 29, 2008

I would call VD and ask him what to do...

VIEJODINOSAUR · Nov 29, 2008

oldirtyku said:
I would call VD and ask him what to do...

Thanks....but I only do what Steak and Wapner tell me to...

trytrytry · Nov 29, 2008

yes on the pinny nba question.

sparticus · Nov 29, 2008

if you nail him too often then you will not have ANY out, better to nibble away little by little, no?

$tinky · Nov 29, 2008

Lay the 10 -120 on the jets. Numbers really don't matter that much in the long run.

Rarely do they come into play.

JohnnyB · Nov 30, 2008

Obviously yes. Hell I take any 1 point different from the WA line in the NBA, let alone 2.

JohnnyB · Nov 30, 2008

Johnny B said:
I take any 1 point different from the WA line in the NBA

I'm assuming you think this is +EV correct Ice?

onemwtheone · Nov 30, 2008

Ever point in the NBA is worth roughly 4%. If you get a line 2 off from pin you're in the vicinity of a 55% rate of return. Yeah, think I might play that one.

totalsquare · Nov 30, 2008

Here's a more difficult one:
pinny always has teaser protection lines..today, they'll let you tease the jets going thru the 3...if you have no opinion, is that an automactic play on the broncos?

Doug · Nov 30, 2008

I'd take two points off of Pinny any day in hoops, unless maybe crossing zero.

If the local lets me move the line 2 points off of Pinny for free, and goes from Pinny's -105 to -110, it is a very solid bet.

say game is 5.5

I get dog +7.5, and/or fav -3.5. I'd bet both, or whichever side he is willing to give.

djmatt · Nov 30, 2008

Teaser protection lines?? Can you explain a little more about that? I know about the key numbers but wouldn't that effect their bottom line or are the teaser lines skewed (not including the points teased) from the originating line