Let me teach how so you don't have to wonder. Pretty simple really.
You need to calculate on each how you often you need to win to breakeven and then just subtract the difference.
In this case, for -134 it's 134/234 = 57.265%. You need to win -134 at least 57.265% to breakeven. For -150 it's of course 150/250=60%. The difference is 2.735%. If the likelihood at the half of Indy winning by 1 or 2 is more than 2.735% then the -0.5-150 is better. If it's less than that, then the -3-134 is better.
Given a tight game at the half I would put the likelihood at more than 2.735% thus the -0.5-150 is better.
You need to calculate on each how you often you need to win to breakeven and then just subtract the difference.
In this case, for -134 it's 134/234 = 57.265%. You need to win -134 at least 57.265% to breakeven. For -150 it's of course 150/250=60%. The difference is 2.735%. If the likelihood at the half of Indy winning by 1 or 2 is more than 2.735% then the -0.5-150 is better. If it's less than that, then the -3-134 is better.
Given a tight game at the half I would put the likelihood at more than 2.735% thus the -0.5-150 is better.
I can't easily determine the odds of Indy winning H2 by 1 or 2 points, though.
I certainly respect your opinion on this.
I think most here would struggle choosing between these two lines !
I would need a database of similar games... low scoring, dog by 3 at the half, in order to judge the liklihood of this MOV.
I certainly respect your opinion on this.
I think most here would struggle choosing between these two lines !
I would need a database of similar games... low scoring, dog by 3 at the half, in order to judge the liklihood of this MOV.
I disagree. Pinny isn't even an option for most Americans.
I would never try to scalp H2 with just these two books, lines change constantly. It usually takes 3 tries to get an H2 bet in at Phoenix, just the truth.
You can't scalp a market that is moving like this, IMO.
Phoenix is useful for H2, can be a bit different, but don't try to scalp H2 lines between books. The odds change way to fast.
