How Terrible the SEC was this year and the bloodbath on Thanksgiving weekend in Vegas

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Cui servire est regnare
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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]With Linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ODDSMAKERS, MEDIA, BETTORS ALL MISREAD THE SEC THIS YEAR![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Everyone is looking forward to this Saturday's Florida/Alabama showdown on the SEC championship game. It has the chance to be a classic...with one of the best offenses of all time facing a truly great defense. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You have head coaches that people love to hate, both of whom have won national championships in recent history (and the winner will have another shot this year!). You have a Heisman Trophy winner facing his toughest challenge yet in terms of the caliber of the opposing defense. You have two of the biggest programs in the sport, both now and all time. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You also have teams who dominated a surprisingly crappy conference![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Are Florida and Alabama really great? Or, are they just very good teams who are dominating what turned out to be a surprisingly soft SEC? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That's not an important question for this week when they play each other. If both teams are overrated, it's not going to matter so much head to head. But, what's going to happen when the winner faces a Big 12 power for the National Championship? What's going to happen when the loser plays in a BCS bowl against a big name team from another league (possibly another Big 12 power!)? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I was thinking about this as the scores were coming in this past Saturday.[/FONT]​
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]GEORGIA lost outright to Georgia Tech as a favorite of more than a touchdown. Georgia Tech isn't playing for the ACC championship this week, yet was still good enough to beat Georgia in Athens! This is a Georgia team that was picked preseason number one by one prominent publication. They were #1 in the polls before getting crushed by Alabama at home. The Bulldogs were supposed to be a national power. They're obviously not right now. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SOUTH CAROLINA lost badly to Clemson, another ACC team. Clemson had a miserable year, but grabbed this game by the throat from the get-go. Since South Carolina had rivalry revenge, it was a particularly bad showing for Steve Spurrier's bunch. Of course, they've been underachieving all season. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]VANDERBILT lost to Wake Forest, making it three losses against ACC teams! At least Florida beat Florida State to keep it from being a complete sweep at the hands of what's supposed to be the lesser conference. Vanderbilt started the season very well, earning a visit from ESPN's "GameDay" at the midway point. Once the non-conference cupcakes were off the schedule, the Commodores stopped posting results. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It's hard to make the case that the SEC is a superpower conference when it's going 1-3 against the ACC on the final Saturday of the season. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Also making news...[/FONT]​
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sylvester Croom resigned as head coach of Mississippi State after a disappointing five-year run. His finale was a disaster in a blowout loss to rival Ole Miss on Friday afternoon. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Tommy Tubberville may be out at Auburn. That program collapsed this year as they tried to implement a new offense. His ability to beat Alabama had saved him in other seasons where the team failed to meet the high expectations of its fans. That won't help now after a 36-0 loss to the Tide Saturday. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Philip Fulmer coached his last game at Tennessee, another big name program that just fell off the map this year. Tennessee lost at home to Wyoming![/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]LSU lost Friday to Arkansas...which came a week after losing at home badly to Ole Miss (a big winner on my private service)...which came a week after falling way behind Troy of the Sun Belt conference before rallying late for a victory. Tennessee lost to Wyoming of the Mountain West. LSU almost lost to Troy of the Sun Belt. And, THAT led up to an 1-3 mark against the ACC in non-conference action on the SEC's final day of the regular season. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Well, that's seven teams right there in the doghouse. Florida and Alabama played great. Who's left?[/FONT]​
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Kentucky had a nothing year after most of their best talent graduated after last season. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Arkansas had a disastrous September before rallying for some respectability in the final weeks. The problem is, that respectability came against other floundering teams. Bobby Petrino has yet to establish he'll be ready to compete for anything that matters. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Ole Miss was one of the few success stories in 2008. Houston Nutt came to the program and made them a real contender. Don't forget that the Rebels are the only team to beat Florida this year, and one of the few to even give them a game. Ole Miss is legitimate, and will be in position to put on quite a show in a bowl game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A few success stories. But, mostly horrible news in a season where the SEC was supposed to be the best conference in the country. They became ordinary (or worse) in a finger snap. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Regular season ATS records show how slow the market was to recognize both the best and the worst.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SEC ATS RECORDS

Florida: 9-2
Alabama: 9-3
Mississippi: 8-3
Vanderbilt: 7-4
South Carolina: 5-5-1
Arkansas: 5-6
Kentucky: 5-6
Tennessee: 5-7
Mississippi State: 4-7
Georgia: 3-7-1
LSU: 2-9
Auburn: 2-9
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Florida, Alabama, and Ole Miss went 2-2 ATS against each other, which means they were a combined 24-6 ATS in all of their other games! That's 80% against the number. Clearly oddsmakers and the public were slow to recognize how much better the big three was than everyone else. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Georgia, LSU, and Auburn were 2-2 ATS against each other, which means they were a combined 5-23-1 ATS in all of their other games. That's worse than an 80% failure rate against expectations. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The teams in the middle of the pack benefited from playing so many games against underachievers. There's just nothing to brag about outside the top three. Vanderbilt was an illusion. Everyone else was clearly worse than expectations. I'm personally very surprised at how bad things got at LSU. Even if you expect a letdown from the championship season. A good quarter against Troy. A couple of good quarters in the loss to Arkansas. When was the last time they played well for four quarters? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let's quickly look at the bowl eligible teams and see what might be in store for the postseason.[/FONT]​
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ALABAMA 12-0: Their defense will put them in good stead no matter who they face. If they take out Florida, a dream showdown against an up tempo Big 12 champion awaits. The Tide certainly has what it takes to cover if not win both of the games that are left on the schedule.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]FLORIDA 11-1: Nobody's playing better football than Florida right now. They're favored to beat Alabama this weekend, and will probably be favored in the BCS championship game too. What a great run they've had since the loss to Ole Miss. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]GEORGIA 9-3: It's hard to say what the mindset will be here. The talent was in place for a much better season. They have a habit of putting up great stats that don't lead to much on the scoreboard. My involvement will depend on their opponent. The defense sure didn't play with much fire against Georgia Tech. They'll either bounce back from that with pride...or continue to go through the motions in a way that disappoints everyone. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MISSISSIPPI 8-4: These guys are playing with passion and enthusiasm. I would expect that to continue in a New Year's Day bowl game against a Big Ten team in Florida or a Big 12 team in the Cotton Bowl. I like these guys a lot and will probably be on them for a serious play wherever they end up. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]LSU 7-5: Clearly a go-against right now unless they draw a very weak bowl opponent. There's little confidence on either side of the ball. And, the players are starting to question the head coach. That rarely leads to bowl success. Probably an anti-LSU bet or a pass for me in their bowl game. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SOUTH CAROLINA 7-5: I'll have to see the opponent here. South Carolina can "manage" its way against lesser teams when they're in the mood to play. I was surprised by the very poor showing against Clemson. Maybe this group has given up on their head coach as well. A lot of that in the SEC this year! It will be tough for me to love SC in a bowl game this month. The game will take a lot of study whoever they end up playing. It's easy to stick a lot of teams on your "go against" list before the matchups are known. Ultimately, a lot of those teams end up playing each other![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For now, let's focus on Alabama/Florida. That game will very likely be part of my CHAMPIONSHIP TRIPLE CROWN that will be released this Saturday. The SEC, Big 12, ACC, and CUSA will all determine conference championships that day. The best three picks will be showcased. Why not sign up today for a full week of football and basketball action by calling 1-877-822-2276. Build your bankroll with some baskets so you'll have plenty to play with in college and pro football this weekend. You can also purchase game day releases online with your credit card. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The SEC is going to be a big part of my postseason package all the way through the bowl and BCS campaign. Let me show you day by day through the next month that the best information comes DIRECT FROM NEVADA![/FONT]​
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ODDSMAKERS CONCERNED ABOUT RASH OF FAVORITE COVERS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What happened this past Thanksgiving Day and night in the NFL...and all weekend with the BCS contenders...inspired fear in Nevada oddsmakers. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It wasn't just that the favorites covered so many spreads (3-0 ATS in Turkey Day pro action, the top 5 BCS teams swept the weekend board ATS). Many of the underdogs barely showed up. How can oddsmakers put numbers on NFL games if:[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The worst NFL teams are going to lose home games by scores like 47-10?[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Losing pro teams with little to play for are going to drop road games by scores like 34-9?[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Winning teams who decide to take a week off (as Arizona did) are going to lose by scores like 48-20?![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let me focus on the pro's here first. We still have four weeks of regular season action left, so this could develop into a big issue for sportsbooks. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You don't typically see pro pointspreads even in the 14-17 range these days. Will Detroit and St. Louis need to be +20 or higher from this point forward? Nobody on Thanksgiving would have covered +24! What about the Seattle's of the world? The teams who aren't in the playoff race but are still better than St. Louis and Detroit in the power ratings? Will those guys need to be +17 or +20 on the road against teams who need to win?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The conventional wisdom for years in the final month of NFL action has been the following:[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The public places too much weight on "need" late in the season. Oddsmakers know this and inflate the lines to make sure the public is betting at a bad number. The "sharp" way to play this is to bet underdogs getting those free points. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There's so much parity in the NFL that nobody should be big favorites all the time. Even if they win some games by big margins, they will fail to reach the hurdles more often than not. For every two blowouts, there will be two and a half or three non-covers at the high prices. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Late season pressure can make it harder to cover the big numbers. The public is betting "need" just as many of the contenders are about to choke! For every two teams who don't choke, about two and a half or three do...at least to a degree that keeps them from winning by big margins. Nerves keep them from playing to expectations.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Late season weather can make it harder to cover big numbers too. Do you know how hard it is to cover big numbers when it's freezing outside? Offenses can't hit on all cylinders, so favorites have to grind out what they can. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Now...all of those points could still hold true in the last month of the regular season. Each of the issues has a problem though that has oddsmakers concerned:[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The opposite of "need" is "not caring at all," and many NFL teams are playing like they don't care at all. You saw minimal intensity from Detroit and Seattle on Thanksgiving afternoon. Several losing franchises have put up awful results in recent weeks. If the public is betting "need" against an opponent that isn't going to show up, the public is going to win![/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Parity has definitely disappeared this year. Well, I should say that it probably exists for about 20 teams, but the other third of the NFL is demonstrably worse. Those demonstrably worse teams are in trouble to begin with. If they don't bother to try, the final scores will continue to be nasty. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Choking is more likely to be an issue when teams within the top 20 or so are playing each other. Some pretenders will definitely be exposed in the virtual playoff games we'll be seeing in the next four weeks. But...when the contenders are facing the dregs of the league, they'll meet so little resistance that choking isn't an issue. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Weather hasn't been an issue yet even though temperatures got cold in the Northeast and Midwest a couple of weeks ago. In fact, many of the coldest games are flying Over. We've seen prime time games in New England, Buffalo, and Philadelphia soar past the total. Some are saying that the reduction in offensive holding calls is making it easier for offenses to score even in bad weather. If that's true, favorites will still be able to put points on the board up North. When favorites can put points on the board, sportsbooks are in trouble. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm not going to put out a blanket endorsement of favorites, or anything crazy like that. I want you to be aware that a potential "perfect storm" is brewing though. It's perfect for "squares" (public wagerers who love favorites)...and a potential disaster for sportsbooks. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I strongly encourage you to keep an eye on developments in this regard all through December.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Chart the victory margins whenever a playoff contender faces: Detroit, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Oakland, Kansas City, Seattle, or San Francisco. Also consider charting results against teams who will have increasingly little to play for like Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, and anyone else who falls off the pace. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Chart the offensive stats of the favorites. Are they regularly gaining at least 380 yards? Are they making a run at 450 yards (both Tennessee and Dallas did that on black Thursday in Nevada)? Teams who aren't piling up yardage consistently will have trouble covering high spreads. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Watch how oddsmakers are adjusting. Are the lines moving up quickly enough? Most of the year, double digit favorites struggled to meet expectations. Then...Pittsburgh (-11) beat Cincinnati 27-10, Dallas (-10) beat San Francisco 35-22, and the Turkey Day big favorites covered by 27 and 13 points. Are the new lines you're seeing in tune with the new scores you're seeing? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I can't tell you for sure what's going to happen in the NFL over the next month at this early stage. I can say that radar is showing a big storm off the coast that you need to be aware of. Oddsmakers sure are. If past history is going to rule the day, you need to be looking at underdogs at the inflated prices. If new developments in 2008 (lack of parity, too many towel tossers, the lack of holding calls driving up scoring) are going to help favorites, you need to recognize that it as it's happening. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In college football, we're down to just a handful of games now that will influence the BCS championship. Most of the damage is in the rearview mirror. This past weekend:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]#1 Alabama (-15) beat Auburn 36-0, covering by 21 points
#2 Texas (-35) beat Texas A&M 49-9, covering by 5 points
#3 Oklahoma (-9) beat Oklahoma State 61-41, covering by 11 points
#4 Florida (-16) beat Florida State 45-15, covering by 14 points
#5 USC (-33) beat Notre Dame 38-3, covering by 2 points
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That's 5-0 ATS for the best five teams. If the lines had been 7-10 points higher across the board, they still would have gone 3-2 against the number. Oklahoma State was at least competitive as an underdog in much of their game. The other four dogs lost by a combined 168-27 final score. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You can see why the sportsbooks were so miserable this past weekend! I don't want to suggest that it was a complete whitewash. Prominent favorites like Georgia, Texas Tech, and Missouri failed to cover their numbers. Big East champ Cincinnati did too. Oregon State needed a win to earn a Rose Bowl bid. They lost huge as a favorite. It wasn't an all-favorite weekend from start to finish. Marquee TV games that were heavily bet sure went that way though. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]And, the Florida bandwagon just keeps running roughshod over the sportsbooks. The public knows head coach Urban Meyer loves piling up the points and landing on the right side of the number. Oddsmakers haven't yet solved the riddle for getting numbers high enough to discourage public action, or even get in the neighborhood of the final score. The Gators have covered their last six board games by 14, 29, 4, 31, 33, and 23 points. Lift the market numbers 10 points, and they still go 5-1 ATS. Lift the market number 21 points, and they still go 4-2 ATS! You have to lift the spread 28 points per game to find the equilibrium![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oddsmakers know that the upcoming Championship Weekend usually goes to the favorites too. In fact, chalk is 8-1-1 ATS the last two years in the five leagues that have championship games (SEC, Big 12, ACC, CUSA, and the MAC). They'll do what they can to defend themselves this weekend. Recent scoreboards are suggesting the spreads don't even matter. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What should YOU do? I can tell you that I've adjusted strategies for myself and my clients. Last week I focused on favorites I thought were in great situations. On Thanksgiving night I laid the points with Philadelphia and Texas to go 2-0. My top release Friday was on Boise State (-) over Fresno State. They started slowly, but pulled away to a 61-10 rout as a three-touchdown favorite. Saturday's RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR was a winner on Oklahoma (-7) over Oklahoma State 61-41. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Am I turning into a square?![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]No way. I'm just recognizing the reality of football right now and playing accordingly. There will still be underdogs that make sense. More favorites are making sense right now because of the way the game is played, and the slow speed that the betting markets are reacting to it. [/FONT]
 

powdered milkman
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fla best team in sec by a mile.....bama second and miss third......very down year overall for sec
 

THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX.
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Lack of holding calls? Well, if thats the case, Im sure the National Fix League will have no trouble implementing more of these calls in the weeks ahead then. It will be intersting to see if this actually happens in the weeks ahead, especially with the big favorites. Maybe then some of you will be convinced being that they have admitted that something must be done to prevent all this scoring/ covering.......but probably not.
 

Almost Geraldo
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Year after year the SEC puts more players in the NFL than any other conference. This year will be no different.

Ga Tech will win the national championship within the next 5 years and will be a perennial top 10 team for as long as Paul Johnson is there. His offense is unstoppable. They would have possibly beaten Florida last Saturday. They were a Va win away from playing for the ACC championship in a year in which they were picked to win 3 or 4 games. Wait until he gets his players, and believe me he will get all the great offensive linemen, running backs, mobile QB's, and Defensive players he wants.
 

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