Making a NBA system: How much weight would you put on these factors

Stocks · Dec 29, 2008

I'm just looking into something for NBA betting. Its not really a system just something I'm looking at to help find an edge with NBA lines

I'm starting out with the AORP - average opponent power rating then adding each teams points difference to come up with the starting number.

Next I'm looking at certin factors that the above line dont account for. Heres what I have so far

1. Home Team +3 points
2. Back to back games -1 point
3. First game home after road trip 3 or more games -3 points
4. Division game +1 point for the dog

What do eveyone think of points I gave to each factor and what other factors can I include.

Thanks

JakeT. · Dec 29, 2008

Looks pretty good (close to what I use) except #3. Do you really think there is an adjustment period worth 3 points when coming home after some time on the road? That is the only thing I'd critique...

Stocks · Dec 29, 2008

Jake T. said:
Looks pretty good (close to what I use) except #3. Do you really think there is an adjustment period worth 3 points when coming home after some time on the road? That is the only thing I'd critique...

I believe number 3 is huge maybe even more that 3 points. Just go back and look at the games that a teams first game at home after 3 or more games on the road and you will see some major upsets straight up. I think that stat alone is over 60% even with the books accounting for it.

WorldNumberOne · Dec 29, 2008

if i was you i would only handicap nba based on scheduling.

only look at games where 1 or both teams are on a back to back.

or : 1 team is playing 3rd game in 4 nights under the scenario of play , off , play , play .

especially look at those games where the other team is rested .

screw every other angle.

forget add 1 here , subtract 3 here .....