Question about Touts/People that sell their picks?

theDude24 · Dec 31, 2008

Ok - so here is the story. My buddy is a high scholl teacher and has no money, but he likes to bet sometimes on games and does so on the internet - usually between 20-50 bucks a game.

So a guy keeps calling him from "vegas" and offers picks at a discounted price, etc...

So he paid 700 bucks for a month (intro rate) for picks. Gets 0-3 picks a day and guy tells him how much to bet based on his bankroll (which is like 1000 bucks) - so most games are 50-100 each.

So the month is up and my buddy is up like 1200 (minus the 700 he paid) and now the guy wants like 1100 for the next month and obviously he wants to do it since hes up this month.

HOW DOES THIS USUALLY WORK?
I've never paid for picks.

Obviously the guy had a decent month and won money - but is this whatthese guy do, try to go on a streak to hook people or are they good at this shit? (obviously if they are good, why not bet for a living....)

JakeT. · Dec 31, 2008

Almost all touts just hope to get lucky and go on runs. That profit is not going to hold up in the long-term and I'd advise your buddy to run for the hills.

There are quality handicappers here that post their selections for free and you can expect a regression toward the mean with the handicapper that you're buddy is paying.

Tell him to get out now. He got lucky and should call it good. No need to pay for picks when you have so many quality guys here.

theDude24 · Dec 31, 2008

i was thinking the same thing... but might be hard to convine him otherwise.

I am telling him the guy is on a hot run.....

He had Rice as his Bowl Game of the Year last night....
today he has Creigton bball (won), Vandy, and LSU....

I'm almost hoping Vandy and LSU lose so he thinks the guy is human...

earl · Dec 31, 2008

been said a thousand times - if someone is so good at picking games why does he need our credit card number?

BadCo · Dec 31, 2008

Fuck them and and the six pole bearers.

But tell this scum bag he is trying another tout for half the price and watch how fast that price comes down.

When he says the original discount price of 700 tell him no thank you 500 bucks or nothing.

Best bet though is to run for the hills as your next post will be about what he lost added to what he payed.

There are a thousand threads with the same theme over the years.

bellyputter · Dec 31, 2008

Next month it will $2,000, even if the tout buries him. $700, and your friend has no money?

VIEJODINOSAUR · Dec 31, 2008

That's funny, Coach LT hasn't charged me for the last two years....

theDude24 · Dec 31, 2008

ya - he decided to take a chance and pay 700 to see what happens....

he won and now wants me/a friend to help split the 1200 bucks for next month....

I said No and he is like "Look, I've won 1000 this month"

I give the same argument you guys do.... but since hes up 1000 im sure he'll do it for antoehr month..

maybe i'll tell him to try the "other guy called and offered me NFL playoff month for 550"

Doug · Dec 31, 2008

These plays are probably posted in the service plays forum for free anyway.

theDude24 · Dec 31, 2008

they aren't - i actually got the picks from him for a week to see if they matched up and they didn't

Willye · Dec 31, 2008

coach has a service, lol had no clue was wondering why i havent seen him post in a while

VIEJODINOSAUR · Dec 31, 2008

Willye said:
coach has a service, lol had no clue was wondering why i havent seen him post in a while

Coach is a good friend of mine...just busting his chops....with his Gators in the championship game, he will be here soon...

Iceman · Dec 31, 2008

Even if the guy is legit and knows his stuff he is going to win 55% of his plays longterm. So your buddy needs to figure out if it is worth it too pay for someone's picks if they hit 55%. Bottom line you need to bet big and win (not at all what I am advising) if you are going to pay for plays. There is no secret to this. The best win at about that rate.

This game is extremely hard to beat, there are no shortcuts. Be careful and look at this logically,figure out if you will make money with the numbers I laid out to you. More times then now I doubt it. Tell your friend to get away quickly. He should be thankful he didnt get buried . Not many people win money in the scenairo you described.

PatrickMcIrish · Dec 31, 2008

Ice - did I read somewhere you purchase plays from touts? No big deal, just wondering if I'm remembering that correctly.

BCTTWR · Dec 31, 2008

Tell your high school teacher friend he is extremely lucky. Do not send anymore money. You will get burned.

LLXC13 · Jan 1, 2009

Sounds like he's not listening to you...let him get burned...then he'll realize buying picks is stupid.

Iceman · Jan 1, 2009

Patrick McIrish said:
Ice - did I read somewhere you purchase plays from touts? No big deal, just wondering if I'm remembering that correctly.

I am not ashamed of this at all. I love the touts I follow they are the best in the world at what theu do.

I do my own numbers on 99% of my plays. I (highly) recommend Right Angle Sports for cbb and dr bob for CFB. I use them with the stuff I have did on my own because there are just so many games. They both have made me way way more money than I (and others) have spent on using them in the past. CBB totalls from RAS is like printing money. I have never seen anything like it and dr bob had a fabouls season and he influnences the market greatly. Thoise would be the only two I would purchase plays from. I have a handful I keep an eye but not ready to plunk down money yet on any of them.

One major thing though is my handicapping has went up about 3 levels since I arrived in lv and have been able to put the time in it. I think that means everything and why most sane people purchase picks from touts, they dont have the time they think they need to put into it to be a winner. Due to my knowledge, free time and work ethic I feel like I have literally struck gold with some things of late on my own so the tout thing now almost brings confusion to what I do. The good news is I have adopted a lot of the same things they do from what I can tell, so I am on a lot of the same things they are.

krk1030 · Jan 1, 2009

Buying picks is fine, the problem is he paid $700 with a $1000 bankroll.

BEANTOWNJIM · Jan 1, 2009

i have always said why would a guy who can make money on his own sell picks think about it.do i want a bunch of strangers who are probably well known deadbeats all there lives on the same side as me jinxing my plays.

touts are full of shit if you could do it on your own you wouldnt need to sell picks.

i am a tout i get 20 customers the patriots are playing the jets.i give 10 guys the patriots and 10 guys the jets this way the 10 guys who had the winner will call back while the 10 suckers who bet the jets will just go away and you replace them with 10 new suckers.this is what all touts do.

PatrickMcIrish · Jan 1, 2009

Iceman said:
I am not ashamed of this at all. I love the touts I follow they are the best in the world at what theu do.

I wasn't suggesting you should be ashamed of it, if it works for you that's all that matters. It's your money.

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