Ice in the desert (Iceman's life in Las Vegas-January 2009)

HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO EVERY POSTER AND THEIR LOVED ONES HERE AT THE RX. MAY THIS BE A HAPPY AND HEALTHY NEW YEAR FOR ALL IN 2009 !!

Been too busy too post this in the past week. When I do post here I like to make it a big one so it takes times and being that it is sunday night, there isnt much going on so I thought I would make a good size post on how everything has been going the past week. Had my busiest day of the year yesterday as I made 116 bets for the day (and not one in Vegas). It was pretty hectic. Ended up getting ahead really early and sputtered from there but still made in the $1,700 range for the day. Kind of anti-climatic as I was up around that amount in the middle of the day and got up as high as $2,500 area a few times only too fall down below 1k also. It was fun and will be like that the next 10 saturdays or so.

There is a major reason for the lack of time of late and that is I have been making my own numbers with all the cbb and nba games and it is very time consuming. Then couple that with hitting openers, betting all day and waiting for a strike price on each game in both sports and time is precious right now.

Had a losing day today (dropped $520) but that ended my longest winning streak I have ever had with this, 9 straight days (since Christmas day). All totaled I have won almost 11k in the past 22 days. So I am very happy right now. Talk about streaks. The variiance with this has been tough on me but I feel I am handling it better. I won 8k for december, which covered the 5k I lost in novemebr. I am within 2k of my yearly peak set on November 5th. Up almost total 20k for the whole 4 months. On pace for just under 60k in 1 year's time. The problem is after hoops I dont have a clue what direction I will go so too expect to keep winning at this rate without a plan isnt realisitc. I have a few options and I will pose them at a later date but until then this is really been fun of late. I figure I have 88 more days of this at breakneck speed and then that will be the end of the sweet 16 weekend and most of the games. It is strictly because of my love for betting CBB, a sport I have had my most success in the past few years.

The thing is this, I am working all day at this. I put together every game for CBB. I signed up at Bookmaker and nail them right at the open. Been able to triple my money in that accounf from $1,500 to 4,500 in less then a week betting CBB totals and this is just betting $200 a play on average. I could go on and on but let me sum it up with this. I have been betting everyday for 2.5 years now and never have I had an edge as high as I do with cbb totals and as I do right now. I have a fellow poster/partner of mine who can vouge for me as we share a lot of information daily and he sees how I have beat the closing line at a 90% rate. Lots of times we are beating the closing line by 5-8 points. Overall I have been hitting low 60% range on these plays with almost 300 bets made. Now I know this is unrealistic to expect that win rate to continue but I am telling you it is incredibile right now with these.

I want to address a few things that I have learned. I would love to share this and the reasoing for anyone who wants to take their game up another level. I know I always preach about the beating the closing line theory as a a barometer of if you are making good bets. I have a few thoughts on that.

First off if someone was to ask me what my biggest advice would be to do this on a daily basis and hopefully win at it, my advice would be too stay one step (or more) ahead of the game/competition. Putting together your plan and being on your toes at all time everyday. It is still something I work everyday at. By prepared for openers in every sport. It is basically you going one on one versus the bookmaker and I know I can win that battle. If you wait and join in late the mistakes will be smoothed out by the sharps. What you need to be doing is always be looking around for good bets and when you see them make them. I ask myself that question 10 times a day, are you focusing on looking for good bets, anywhere? Dont think you can win an hour before the games start and you are going to start betting. I ironically had my worst 4 month stretch right before i moved out here and my confidence was at an all time low and it was too late too turn back we had to move soon. I was very nervous I had lost it completely. Now looking back at it today, the reason was I wasnt 1 step ahead of the game. I wasnt working really hard at it. Dont get me wrong I was trying but not hard enough, not 1 step ahead of the game.

It is so hard nowadays to win playing against widely avaibile numbers, in fact I dont think anyone can do it consistently year around. Sure sport to sport guys can do it but the key is getting down great bets and the only way too do that is staying a step ahead. I talked too a longtime gambling buddy from back home the other week and he asked me who I liked and I told him the plays i made throughout the week and he said "well no wonder you win with being able to bet numbers like that". He almost sounded pissed at me. Little does he know how hard I worked to put those numbers together, to make sure to bet them when they came out and keep my eyes open all week for opportunitites. Keeping all numbers updated, being in a ton of outs. I did the little things he didnt do and he thought it was nfair that I had good numbers. I wasnt doing all this towards the end of my betting back in Michigan. The reaon why beating the closing is so important is the closing line is the true line and if you are getting a better then average number versus it then you are catching the books mistakes. Not only catching the mistakes, you are helping correct it (if you are betting the right side). You should always ask yourself when making a bet "do you see this line moving enough to beat the closing line". Basically is there a mistake in the current number and is your bet taking advantage of it. It's not easy at first but you get good enough by looking at the right stuff. For example in the books this week I have a few pending wagers like Ohio St +11, Florida -3, over 33.5 Baltimore game,under 73 in NC cfb game. I think you get the point these bets were all made a week or longer before the games were played. Those numebrs werent out ther very long but they were out there to be taken by bettors and when gameday comes bettors late to the party wont be able to make these plays as the numbers will be long gone. That is just so hard too win playing into the new more accurate numbers.

I have had a few people I am close to in the forum world write me the past few months saying they thought I was getting away from my old style of betting. That is somewhat true but it is still the same theory of beating the closing line. The difference is I wasnt good enough or stacked with enough information to know an off line when it was out there. I am not so much handicapping as I am looking for lines that I am going to bet that I think because they arent accurate are beatable right then. I know that is handicapping but I dont make a bet asking myself will Chicago win this game (soemtimes I do but manily no) because too be honest with you I have no idea about 99% of these teams. My goal is if I use the information over and over and make a line that is better then the one the guy making it is making then I will win because one of our numbers are going to get corrected. Nowadays due to the information I use I usually know exactly where the line will end up and when to bet it and so I end up beating the closing line the majority of time. The funny thing is before I moved here I was a firm believer that most couldnt "out handicap" sports, myself included. You had to be mainly a follower but in essence you are following somoene right? Now dont get me wrong it is still extremely difficult to win at this, espically in strong markets but there are other areas that isnt true. I believe you need a bet type that will show some violatility in the marketplace. There is little too edge in NBA sides for example because there is no movement in them, meaning there is no mistakes with them either and no mistakes no off lines and no off lines bet and no advantage betting. This is why stuff like CBB total is such a goldmine, IMO. It is extremely volitale. Ask the booksmakers, look at the limits. The movement is the market correcting itself, the mistakes that were made and the opportuntites are galore. This is a problem I have is that I want too look at stuff like NFL sides when in reality I should be focusing way more on CFB totals as the mistakes in those numbers are everywhere. Just look at the violatiltiy.

Variance can e a tough with all this. how many times have we talked about that. Here is the current dillema (cause there always has to be some dillema), I have been losing a small fraction on all my other stuff. Not a lot but a few times enough to ruin fabolus days. It's not as easy as saying just quit playing the other stuff. The thing is I think I have an edge on that stuff also, if not I wouldnt be playing, as I am beating the cloisng line steadily and consistently. For example I Maruqette +10.5, Oregon +11.5, Va Tech +17 and Marist +10.5 and another losing day with CBB sides. Tomorrow I played 2 games at pne and they look good also right now E Kentucky +6 and Hawaii -5. Its like this almost everyday it seems and it losses. Almost every single bit of this success is toward CBB totals. Latley I have added in CBB 1st halfs. i basically make my numbers and multiply my game by .468 to get my 1st half number and bet it if it is 2 points off. I am 42-22 on these also. Bottom line most of the other stuff I do has lost combined for the month I would say that or maybe breakeven (I would have to add them up) but I know I will be fine with them as they are beating the closing numbers. I am starting to think stuff like CBB sides and NBA just arent worth it. In fact NBA sides are about betting peak numbers also but I dont play many of them because there is little to no violaitity (unless an injury) because everyone knws how good every team is.

Just a few thoughts on how I have been going about this of late. I think training your mind to think a lot the way I described makes this game easier to beat (and it is not easy at all). Just remember if you dont work hard at this and stay one step ahead of everyone else you wont most likely win in the longrun. Dont ever make a bet unless you think you will beat the closing line with the current bet you will be making or you find a bet that is beating the current line by enough to make this a good enough bet right now. Your goal should be able to tell others right before a game starts who you bet and have that particular bet be a team with a number that is nowhere near that number at that game time. Like Arizona +3 this past saturday is a good example. There is almost no better feeling to me then looking down on my page of bets and seeing bets just like this, it's almost the same feeling as winning the actual bet.


Anyways sorry about the length of this and how in-depth I got. Hope maybe I helped somone out there. I am just really passionate about my beliefs with all this nowadays. I think you have too be. I wanted too share them with everyone here and what I have did too lift my game up a little of late.

nice write up i am glad that everything is going great for you guys....... what per cent is offshore?????????????:nohead:

Ice give me your 3 slowest books in Vegas and 3 slowest offshore in order, thanks.

Luckys ruined atleast 3 good vegas outs that I know of.

ICE, thanks for the continued insights into FullTime capping biz. I continue to read and follow with great interest

Good stuff, Iceman, really appreciate the writeups. You are doing your thing on a huge scale compared to most of us, but I know what you say is true from my own thing, which is focus on the 2h totals in college baseketball in televised games. When you get enough experience, you can predict what the 2h number is giong to be and where it will head. And much of the time the opening number will stay where it is less than a minute, and most of the time the move is down.

I play almost exclusively unders, and find college 2h totals the easiest bets out there compared to sides and other sports.

I think you're right re NBA and, more and more, college sides. Take the UCLA-Oregon game yesterday - it was completely manipulated by the refs who aided Oregon from start to finish, causing the number to come in at 9, an Oregon cover. Neutral court, neutral refs, UCLA is probably 25 points better than Oregon. Figuring in the refs and the league marketing needs has become an essential element of sides capping, particularly in football and pro basketball, but increasingly so in college basketball and college football. Baseball will always be around because it is the only sport that is difficult to influence through officiating.

What I find is that by focusing on totals I do better on sides. Every so often a side will leap up as a good bet, and usually come through. But for now, college hoops totals, 2h in particular, are the easiest numbers to beat.

Anyway, keep letting us know, your information and findings are valuable to read, and we appreciate your taking the time to post.

Btw, is the word for what you do scalping? Essentially you have learned how lines are formed and how they will move. So you know the right points to buy them. Just wondering what the right word is for that. You're only indirectly trying to pick the right side, you're directly trying to spot the bad line.

And it sounds like you're doing a great job, so keep it up, and thanks again for keeping us apprised of your quest.

careful, as the college totals have tightened up after jan.1 in the past. Some big winners have just given up after giving back a big % in Jan. History has a way of repeating itself. The books cant keep giving up such a big edge is the way i figure it, after football is no longer their focus.
Rooting for your continued success and hope to see you again in Feb.

My gambling philosophy is different than yours, Ice, but I completely agree on staying one step ahead. Also, when I went pro in Nascar, I believed I worked harder and could beat any Nascar linesmaker on the planet. It was a one on one challenge with the linesmaker for me. As you know, the linesmaker makes mistakes. I was prepared and would capitalize on these mistakes. Good luck in Vegas!

great read..many things to ponder and learn form there.

I just wound up finishing tied for 5th in the Stations Challenge Contest, and first in their mini contest for the last 4 weeks of the contest. I read with interest your continued talk about beating the closing numbers. But if you don't have the winning side, what good is beating the closing numbers or getting the best number there is? If I had Miami yesterday at +5, when everyone else was getting +3.5, what good does it do me?

Since around 83% of the time, the number means absolutely nothing, what difference does it make if you beat the closing numbers or not. Since I'm a contrarian bettor for the most part, I'm bettor off waiting until almost game time while the squares push the line up in my favor.

Sounds to me that you must be betting a lot of favorites. I understand the BB totals can move very fast and it's important to get the best number possible. But if you don't have the right side, you're going to lose money.

Good luck and continued success in Vegas. I'll be out there January 19th-26.

Ice, always enjoy reading your threads. A couple of questions for you. How many points off your number do you usually look for in cbb totals to warrant a play? Also where did you come up with .468 for 1st half totals? Thanks in advance

3 points off is the minimum. I bet a lot more when it is 5 or more points off. For example I have under 164 va cmmonwelth tonighy (linte is 155ish), another is under 149 austin peay (line is 140.5). Now these are extreme examples but when you bet numbers like this you have an huge edge. .468 is around the average of most 1st half totals compared to game totals over the games I tested over a few days. so I use that too make my own 1st half numbers. Uusually if I like a game enough to bet the total, I like it enough to bet 1st half also.

Stuck, I am simplfying things for people by saying this. This defines a good bet. I cant argue one game, no one can. You have to look at the big picture and the closing line means everything. Trust me on this one. Get ahold of any book manager and ask him how he defines who is sharp. If he looks at a guys plays and sees his plays 3 points better then the closing line he knows this guy will win longterm. Many will tell you this. These players are basically taking advantage of the same mistakes made by the book, espcially at open. Like my Arizona +3 bet this weekend. That is why they hate people following steam. In fact I bet way more dogs then favorites. Maybe 20 years ago this wasnt true with others waiting but nowadys lines seen to drop cause the big money players generally bet dogs and they move the line but this isnt always the case either.

I know what you are saying with lines going up all week and you fade the move at gametime by backing the dog at a peak number, that is great also but this isnt nearly as effective as my way of betting. Maybe in bigger games, yes for sure but a lot of times you are trying to beat a widely avaibile line, the most accurate line out there. This is a safe way too get beat. Look at a guy like Fezzik who won the Hilton contest, I respect Fezzik more then anyone but he will be the first to tell you in any contest the #1 thing is too take advantage of is stale/off numbers and that is what you are doing when you bet a line that will move. Like I said this isnt eay but I am just simplfying for others to concentrate on this more then anything. You have to respect what the market is telling you at all times. It is the best predictor. Believe me in the longrun favorties and dogs win 50/50 versus the closing line but get 2 points better then the closing line and all those 1 point losses are now going to be 1 point wins and 50% becomes 55%.

I would book anyones plays in the world if I could give him the lines 10 minutes before a game starts and the lines are all consensus numbers. No way this guy would win over the longrun. Some would be able to beat certain sports, etc for sure but overtime they would get beat. The bookies will win this everytime but give a guy a crack early in the day at openers before line has been massaged into shape and this sharp player will be able to find the biggest mistakes in the lines and beat them.

iceman, you still follow ras? Or do you think it's hard for him to maintain this pace going forward?

Thanks for the response. I usually play 5 points or more. I'm going to look into the 1st halves. I never looked too much in depth them

totalsquare said:

iceman, you still follow ras? Or do you think it's hard for him to maintain this pace going forward?

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still follow when I can. Gambling has no memory so what he did yesterday has no bearing on today. Whatever he does is good so you have to follow if you can, my problem is finding places tat take the bet.

Too be honest with you though he is a small smal part of what I do. I average 45 plays a night and he might have 1-3 of them. But he is solo arguing that one.

J Money said:

Thanks for the response. I usually play 5 points or more. I'm going to look into the 1st halves. I never looked too much in depth them

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I am treading lightly with 3-4 pts off but I have noticed I was winning at same rate and same pct were moving my way so I have went with it and it has done well. As for 1st halves, seems to make sense and I am trying to exploit any and all things around totals that i can. It's new to me also but so far so good (knock on wood,lol).

totalsquare said:

iceman, you still follow ras? Or do you think it's hard for him to maintain this pace going forward?

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this is exactly what i am saying in my post above. in the past the lines especially totals have tighted up after jan. 1, and the winning stopped.

here are the results from ed's site for last nite, as a good example.

<table class="border-box" width="710" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="reporttblthbody"><td class="rowheader-blk" width="8%" align="center" height="16" nowrap="nowrap">Date</td> <td class="rowheader-blk" width="44%" align="center" height="16" nowrap="nowrap">Matchup</td> <td class="rowheader-blk" width="8%" align="center" height="16" nowrap="nowrap">Rating</td> <td class="rowheader-blk" width="11%" align="center" height="16" nowrap="nowrap">Score</td> <td class="rowheader-blk" width="7%" align="center" height="16" nowrap="nowrap">Result</td> <td class="rowheader-blk" width="12%" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Closing Line</td> <td class="rowheader-blk" width="10%" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">Line Value</td> </tr> <tr class="reportrow2"> <td align="center" height="18" nowrap="nowrap">01/05/09</td> <td class="admin-list" align="center">Louisiana Tech/Hawaii (Under 129.0)</td> <td align="center">1.0 UNIT</td> <td align="center">64-65 (129)</td> <td align="center">PUSH</td> <td align="center">127.5</td> <td align="center"> +1.5</td> </tr> <tr class="reportrow1"> <td align="center" height="18" nowrap="nowrap">01/05/09</td> <td class="admin-list" align="center">UC Davis/Cal State Northridge (Over 152.0)</td> <td align="center">1.0 UNIT</td> <td align="center">81-84 (165)</td> <td align="center">WIN</td> <td align="center">155.5</td> <td align="center"> +3.5</td> </tr> <tr class="reportrow2"> <td align="center" height="18" nowrap="nowrap">01/05/09</td> <td class="admin-list" align="center">NC-Wilmington/Virginia Commonwealth (Under 160.0)</td> <td align="center">1.0 UNIT</td> <td align="center">59-88 (147)</td> <td align="center">WIN</td> <td align="center">158.0</td> <td align="center"> +2.0</td> </tr> <tr class="reportrow1"> <td align="center" height="18" nowrap="nowrap">01/05/09</td> <td class="admin-list" align="center">SE Missouri State/Jacksonville State (Under 149.5)</td> <td align="center">1.0 UNIT</td> <td align="center">66-71 (137)</td> <td align="center">WIN</td> <td align="center">145.5</td> <td align="center"> +4.0</td> </tr> <tr class="reportrow2"> <td align="center" height="18" nowrap="nowrap">01/05/09</td> <td class="admin-list" align="center">Drexel/James Madison (Under 126.5)</td> <td align="center">1.0 UNIT</td> <td align="center">60-66 (126)</td> <td align="center">WIN</td> <td align="center">123.5</td> <td align="center"> +3.0</td></tr></tbody></table>

it would appear he had a fantastic nite, however upon close examination you will see that on two of the games nearly everybody lost as the total fell between the opening and closing number. this would make a 4-0-1 record more realistically 3-2 since almost no $ is wagered at the opening number. I know it is still a winning nite , but this illustrates my point on how the numbers have tightened up.

Iceman said:

I would book anyones plays in the world if I could give him the lines 10 minutes before a game starts and the lines are all consensus numbers. No way this guy would win over the longrun.

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Have you ever heard of Billy Walters?

I hear what your are saying akilles. I agree every sport the lines get tighter as the season goes on due to having more accurate information for everyone. This is why betting peak number is so important.

This again is why I talk about being one step ahead of the game. I won't ever play a touts number worse then he sends out, NEVER!!! I actually missed his plays last night and in fact may stay away from him going forward. Just having too hard of time following him and you end up pissing off the books also. Plus you get some plays that contradict and then it becomes who do you go with?

I personally had over 151 cs northridge, under 164 va commonwelth on my own yesterday earlier. I actually disagreed with 2 of his plays last night and I won both (he pushed and one) by getting a peak type number.

Had the exact same type night again last night that I have had the past couple weeks almost every night. I won over $1,600 on CBB totals but lost over $800 on other stuff (NBA was rough). Overall a soild nite (won $802) but sometimes I wonder if I should up my bets on cbb totals and leave the rest alone. I have tightened some other areas up and still feel confident with them going forward. My style is too go with a lot of plays for smaller amounts then smaller amount of plays for high amounts. It is getting hard to follow that strategy right now with the way things have went.

Inside The Pylons said:

Have you ever heard of Billy Walters?

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good point and I thought of him when I posted that. No I wouldnt book BW's plays.