Ok, i came up with a % which i believe to foretell the chances of an underdog beating a favorite outright.
Here is the example from Sunday Night's NCAA BB Game.
USC -11 @ Oregon St.
I come up with Oregon St. having a 15.18% chance in beating USC outright regardless of location, which in fact they did.
Now my question is this.
How could i go about working that % into my excel based math model.
I had thought about adding 15% of Oregon St.'s predicted total points back into their predicted points, but that just doesn't seem like the right thing to do.
Or i could take 7.5% and add it into their projected points and subtract 7.5% from USC's projected points.
I really don't think messing with their projected points is the way to do this though.
Just looking for suggestions..
Any will be appreciated.
Thanks,
Cap
Here is the example from Sunday Night's NCAA BB Game.
USC -11 @ Oregon St.
I come up with Oregon St. having a 15.18% chance in beating USC outright regardless of location, which in fact they did.
Now my question is this.
How could i go about working that % into my excel based math model.
I had thought about adding 15% of Oregon St.'s predicted total points back into their predicted points, but that just doesn't seem like the right thing to do.
Or i could take 7.5% and add it into their projected points and subtract 7.5% from USC's projected points.
I really don't think messing with their projected points is the way to do this though.
Just looking for suggestions..
Any will be appreciated.
Thanks,
Cap
