Help with my Economics class relevant to gambling

Hey all,

I'm in an Econ class that's about economic analysis. So all quarter we'll be working on a topic or paper culminating in some econometric analysis. All that said, can you all propose any topics that are related to gambling or the industry? The only requirements are that it I can find data on it.

For example, some girl did "Does superstition in Chinese culture affect their stock index?" ie. do "lucky days" in Chinese culture induce higher trading volumes and a general good will in the market that day.

Thanks in advance.

John

Just off the top of my head....

1. How efficient is the betting market? Is it strong, weak or semi-strong?
2. Can you detect cheating by players [on-the-court hehe] by looking at the results vs the line? There was a study of this on college hoops a few years back so it might be a good time to revisit it.
3. Is it possible to construct a model for any of the major pro sports?

Do a paper on how "March Madness and the Spread" or the "Popularity in the NFL and Parlay Cards" or "Why the Hell is there a college football game on Tuesday Night......How the Hell can't you cover by 5 at home".....Or..."Monday Night football....the Night America fell in Love with the Point Spread".

I like the idea of the looking at cheating or point shaving. I know there was a pretty solid paper written a while ago about sumo wrestling and the collusion that happens when a wrestler needs a winning record to stay in the premier league (something like that).

Anyone have any insight into where I could start looking for some player collusion? Even historically?

just google betting scandals....add the words tulane, boston college,etc

<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="SectionHeader">TENNIS CHEATING SCANDAL SPILLS OVER INTO INTERNET GAMBLING</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 2px;"> <td bgcolor="black">
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <!-- STANDARD TEXT FULL WIDTH --> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td> Organisers want to ban online betting on French Open </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>


French tennis organisers are following in the steps of their government in seeking to ban online betting, this time on the Grand Slam tournament, the European media reported from Brussels today.

The French Open organisers filed a lawsuit today (Friday) in courts in Liege in eastern Belgium and in Paris in an apparent bid to ban online gambling companies from offering bets amid claims that Internet betting companies stain the reputation of the clay-court championship at Roland Garros.

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</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <!-- STANDARD TEXT FULL WIDTH --> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top"> "There is urgency to act because sporting ethic is at risk," Jean-Francois Vilotte, director general of the French tennis federation, told The Associated Press. "It is an issue as important as the fight against doping."

The issue of integrity in tennis came to the fore in August, when online betting exchange site Betfair voided all wagers on a match in Poland between fifth-ranked Nikolay Davydenko and 87th-ranked Martin Vassallo Arguello because of irregular betting patterns. Davydenko withdrew from the match in the third set, citing a foot injury.

The French federation is suing three major online gambling companies - Betfair, Bwin and Ladbrokes - with a court injunction to stop them from taking bets on the French Open. It seeks a punitive fine for each day of any violations, said Vilotte's lawyer, Jean-Louis Dupont.

Dupont said the federation's case is built on two tenets: that the betting companies are tainting the reputation of the French Open and unfairly using the tournament as a way of making money.

If a match-fixing scandal hit the French Open, it would undermine the value of the tournament, which had massive revenues and attracted 450 000 fans to Roland Garros and a potential 3 billion viewers worldwide, Dupont said.

With soccer and horse racing, tennis is among the most popular sports to bet on.

The federation accuses betting companies of dodging the fallout when there is suspicion of match fixing. "They purely scrap the bets on the event in question and by doing that generate a scandal that the organisation and players have to deal with. It can give them a lifelong ugly reputation," Dupont said.

The ATP opened an investigation into the Davydenko match, interviewing him and his wife and reviewing telephone records. No findings have been announced.

Since the match, several players have come forward to say they have been approached with offers to fix matches.

Late last year, three Italian pros - Potito Starace, Daniele Bracciali and Alessio Di Mauro - were suspended for betting on tennis matches involving other players.</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

Something pretty simple might be how well or how poorly public plays do. Is there a threshold of % of the public that wins a lot more than it loses? For example, maybe public plays that are over 90% win X% of the time, but those in the 70-90% range only win Y% of the time. In other words, is there a threshold percentage that is a guaranteed lock and is the there a range of percentages that go the other way.

Or something like that. It's early.

You may want to do something on prediction markets. Betfair's prediction markets for the Conference Championships and the SB are here (or use the data from the US election market...)

www.betfairpredicts.com


The predictions are based on data.

Betfair Predicts generates the most accurate predictions for events based on millions of real-money bets placed in the world’s largest betting exchange.

http://predicts.betfair.com/prediction-markets/