I doubt the pinch-hitting accounts for many more wins/losses. NL pitchers are better statistically usually because they face a pitcher at bat 2 or 3 times a game, where AL pitchers face a home run hitter.
Wins in fantasy are very hard to predict - relies on much more than your pitching, it relies on the team's offense. That said, the Yankee offense will more than likely be much better than SF. But strange things happen with run support and certain pitchers, so I would draft based on projected WHIP and ERA, rather than a shot in the dark on how many wins a guy might get if he gets the run support.
Between these two, I would probably go Lincecum by a hair.
In a 5x5 league (or even a 4x4 league) slight nod goes to Lincecum.
5x5 criteria is saves (not applicable here), wins, strikeouts, WHIP ratio, and strikeouts.
Breakdown last season.
Lincecum had 18 wins, Sabathia 17 wins. That's a wash.
WHIP: Sabathia 1.11 Lincecum 1.17. Slight edge to Sabathia.
K's Lincecum 265, Sabathia 251. Slight edge to Lincecum.
ERA Lincecum 2.62, Sabathia 2.70. Slight edge to Lincecum.
I'd draft Lincecum over Sabathia for a few reasons.
I'm big on strikeout artists, NL west has weak hitting, and Sabathia will benefit fom major run support, so his approach will be different when he has a nice lead.
