If you are beating the closing numbers this year in CBB, the last month has been bad!

TheWolf · Jan 21, 2009

Absolute bloodbath so far for the better part of the last month or so.....a few good days here and there, but many losing ones.......and I am beating some games by 2-3 points and still losing.

Something really seems off this year & a lot of games for some reason are bouncing both ways a lot more which I dont recall happening in past years as much.

michael777 · Jan 21, 2009

i have been getting some good numbers as of late and am getting killed :guillotin

TheWolf · Jan 21, 2009

November was great.
First part of December was good.

Last part of December was really bad.
January has been up and down until this week which has been nightmarish!

onemwtheone · Jan 21, 2009

Yesterday was my worst day ever (I think). Lost about 13%. Considering my average wager is about 0.25%, that's a lot of losing for one day. I blame Obama. One day as Prez and things go to shit.

Iceman · Jan 21, 2009

Wolf,
that is waaaaaay too broad of a statement, IMO. I went 10-1 yesterday. I am on a fabuolus run the past 6 weeks, one of my best stretcheds of all time but I didnt do as well back 2 months ago as you did.

Anyone can beat the closing line on almost both sides of CBB totals if they time their plays just right. My point is there are almost 100 different scenairo's with a lot of games like tonight. You can be literally on both sides of a line move. I am sure you and I are all over the places with our plays nightly. There is no right or wrong answer, especially with such a violatale market like CBB totals.

I do think one needs to be very careful that they are not following steam and joining after the move, that will get you beat everytime. You have too be right in line with the move or pass on the game (I do not follow steam anymore, though). Bottom line you must get numbers at their peak.

Hang in there its just variance. It sucks worse then anything. It can drive a man crazy but if you are playing with an edge you will win. Its never a smooth ride though, you know that. Are you ahead for the CBB season? If so then you are doing something right. Figure out what your pct is, I assume it is right in line with most people if you are getting great numbers. Hang in there.

TheWolf · Jan 21, 2009

Yes I am still up.....but have lost a lot the last 4 days! I dont recall seeing so many games swing both ways on totals like they are this year, especially in January......for example, I might grab No ILL Over 145 as it moves to 146 at say 6:15PM and I am happy....but then at 6:55Pm it drops to 143! Now I am sitting on a bad number & wasnt fast enough to beat move back. This has happened a lot this year unlike past years.

krk1030 · Jan 21, 2009

Didnt work with Clemson.

Iceman · Jan 21, 2009

I want to add something I have come across. I knew since I started doing this fulltime that one thing I wanted to start looking into was betting openers in every sport. It was driving me insane to not get the numbers that I seen posted at one time. I said to myself it is ridicuolus for anyone to have a better number then me if I am doing this fulltime.

This has made a world of difference for me, probaly the #1 reason for my success so far. You should see some of the numbers I get daily. They are unbelievable. So to say you if you are beating closing numbers you arent winning is simply not true. When a line opens and moves it is basically the bettors molding the line and making the line where it should be. They are correcting the mistake made by the linesmaker. Now it can be tricky and if you are followinfg this you will be confused so I dont advise that.

Good example would be yesterday at open I bet over 155 Oklahoma St. The line slowly crept up. Now if somone sat down 2 hours before gametime tonight and caught this number at 159.5 that is what they bet. So the opener guy has over 155 and the afternoon guy gets over 159.5. Game closes 161.5. Now it went way over but how many time does it fall between these? A lot. This is what drove me nuts and motivated me too make sure I was trying to bet peak numbers.

Another good example I have tonight is I bet over 137 Kentucky at open. The game went up to 138 and then jumped 4 points this evening. Most got it at 138. It peaked at 141.5. The peak players got over 137 or under 141.5. Both beat the closing line. Neither bet lost but all over players lost their bet that didnt get over 137. Now this is a tough one, not saying it is easy but just trying to use my example of how all of this is timing.

Iceman · Jan 21, 2009

The Wolf said:
Yes I am still up.....but have lost a lot the last 4 days! I dont recall seeing so many games swing both ways on totals like they are this year, especially in January......for example, I might grab No ILL Over 145 as it moves to 146 at say 6:15PM and I am happy....but then at 6:55Pm it drops to 143! Now I am sitting on a bad number & wasnt fast enough to beat move back. This has happened a lot this year unlike past years.

what I would do is have a chart with the number I would ony bet at. I call it my strike price. I would try and bet only numbers that are peak numbers. Maybe in your above example look for some under 146.5. I think you almost need some kind of sheet too guide you (not just you but anyone nowadays). I was running into similar stuff last year and it was driving me nuts also. I dont use the beating the closing to bet for me anyomore but more as an incdicator. It defines if I made a good bet, found the mistake. I got mad if I knew there were better numbers out there I didnt get. I always look at line history and try and time my plays. I think that is so important. I am a firm believer that most of the numbers are straightend out this time of the year by 1 hour before game time. I like fading big moves better later in the season when the numbers are tighter. Early in the year follow these moves as the mistakes are everywhere.

One other thing is thru venture in vegas I am very happy with where I am at. On a scale of 1-10 I feel like a 9 results wise and the thing is I am up a little less then 2.5%. That is it. Some areas I am crushing, some I am losing my ass but when you add them all up +2.5% is where I am at. In 2006-2007 I won 2.7%. 2008 was less then 2%. I know a guy in Vegas, a professional gambler who's goal is 1.6% he told me. That is it. But I know in the future if I can put 500k a month thru the books, 2.5% is 10k a month profit and that too me is great. Like I said though streaks are inevitable, we ALL go thru them. Seems like every great night is followed by a bad one. Like the gambling gods wont let you enjoy too much good, LOL.

TheWolf · Jan 22, 2009

Another crappy night tonight. wow. Think Ive lost about 80% of profits over 4 days.

Seymour · Jan 22, 2009

onemwtheone said:
Yesterday was my worst day ever (I think). Lost about 13%. Considering my average wager is about 0.25%, that's a lot of losing for one day. I blame Obama. One day as Prez and things go to shit.

If you're truly betting .25% that's almost impossible

onemwtheone · Jan 22, 2009

Seymour said:
If you're truly betting .25% that's almost impossible

Heh. Guess I shouldn't believe my lying eyes.

.25 is an average. Had 13 plays averaging about .6% that went 1-11-1. Adds up in a hurry.

ChiTownHustler · Jan 22, 2009

Whomever is moving numbers in B10 games has no idea how to read the conference this year. It's best to wait on alot of these B10 lines.
I played TOSU at UofM the other day off the jump, and the line moved against another 1.5.
Just the other day I got on PSU against UofM, and the number moved against again.
Same with the Hawks last night

bellyputter · Jan 22, 2009

I make most of my money this time of year in college basketball wagering AGAINST selected "peak" #s. Less wear and tear on your mind and body.

TheWolf · Jan 22, 2009

ChiTown Hustler said:
Whomever is moving numbers in B10 games has no idea how to read the conference this year. It's best to wait on alot of these B10 lines.
I played TOSU at UofM the other day off the jump, and the line moved against another 1.5.
Just the other day I got on PSU against UofM, and the number moved against again.
Same with the Hawks last night

Funny, I thought the same thing too about some of these games.....like who the hell is moving these lines this year and what the hell are they thinking.

On smaller card days I cap the games out too to give me a benchmark to go on...larger card days I just simply do not have the time. Anyways, there are some teams that struggle to break the 120 total barrier consistently and yet their Overs are getting hit at 130, 131, etc.....and I am just wondering WTF? So I play it and they score like 106 points total....lol. No idea what is going on this year. Maybe Charles Barkley is unloading on college hoops this year:missingte

TheWolf · Jan 22, 2009

bellyputter said:
I make most of my money this time of year in college basketball wagering AGAINST selected "peak" #s. Less wear and tear on your mind and body.

Belly......I assume you wait until prior to tip to hit those peaks?

PO69 · Jan 22, 2009

Iceman, you are not the only one doing this fulltime. I have been doing well but not by betting totals. The sides have been sweet lately

bellyputter · Jan 22, 2009

The Wolf said:
Belly......I assume you wait until prior to tip to hit those peaks?

Not always. Different games "peak" at different times.

JohnnyB · Jan 22, 2009

Yeah, steam has not been doing overly well in January. Very frustrating after doing so well in November and December, but I guess it's somewhat "regressing to the mean" so to speak (yes I know that what happened in earlier bets doesn't actually affect the probability of later bets winning) as the results in November and December were unsustainable.

Here are my results by month:

November: 41-19-1, +20.10 units
December: 56-28-2, +25.20 units
January: 81-75-3, -1.50 units

So I wouldn't say January is a "bloodbath," but it's not been good either. I would definitely be worse off fading the steam. There was only 1 day that was an absolute slaughtering, and that was last Weds., on which I went 2-11, -10.1 units, my worst betting day ever. Take that day away and I'd be up 8.60 units for the month, which I'd be very satisfied with (I was hoping to make 10-15 units each month for each of Jan., Feb., and Mar.).

Will be interesting to see how the rest of the season goes. If I win less than 20 units collectively between Jan-Mar combined I will be disappointed. If the same thing happens next year (kill Nov and Dec but do mediocre the last 3 months) I will probably just go for Nov and Dec in the future. If faced with a choice of 40 units for 6 weeks of work or 50 units for 18 weeks of work, I'd have to take the former, unless my units increase to a nickel or higher, otherwise it's just not worth it.

:smoking:

whalewager · Jan 22, 2009

wait til the peak and hit the other side...

man woulda got rich last night

If you are beating the closing numbers this year in CBB, the last month has been bad!

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