Well I knew what you would say Ice. :lolBIG:
I've read enough of your posts...
Is your answer the same if you can get a "rogue" number on the other side (e.g. consensus is 123 and you find 124.5)?
only if you overbet the 1st bet forecasting the line move, planning to middle.
one might do this with a RAS play.
Is your answer the same if you can get a "rogue" number on the other side (e.g. consensus is 123 and you find 124.5)?
no definetley not. They have too be looked at as seperate bets. I have siad this since day 1.
The problem is 99% of the players dont do this. They play back late and a consensus number or a number at a book they have money to "middle" the pplay. Costing themselves a ton of +ev in the end.
Doug,
I have been studying this up and down and back and front the past 3 weeks and never feel more strongly about this then I do of late. It just drives me nuts that people think this is a good strategy. THE ONLY WAY IT IS IF IS THE 2ND BEST US ALSO +EV and the only way for that to be is if you end up getting some obscure peak number and people just dont do this. 99% of the people buy back at a Pinny number and think they are doing the right thing.
It's funny you bring up the RAS thing. I have a very close gambling buddy who I have debated this with. His way of handling RAS totals had got me to thinking why I know this doesnt waork for 99% of the people.
Here is the story: My buddy is an average size gambler like myself $200-300 a play most of the time. Well he subscribes to RAS totals and the second the line comes out he hits anyone and everyone he can with the RAS totals play for $500 a pop. He can usually get 2 plays in at 2 different books ($500 a piece)each time before the line moves so he has $1,000 on the play. Now his sole intention is to get out of of $700-800 of this bet leaving him $200-300 exposed. He has not missed a RAS play all year that I can recall (maybe because of some malfunction oce). RAS keeps his record on the site and of late he is up around 35 units or so on the season.
Now here is the problem. So I ask my buddy if RAS is up 35 units and you get down $1,000 on his play EVERYTIME you should be up at least 35k this year. He instantly says no he isnt, not that much at all or even close. Now how could that be? If RAS is up 35 units and if he just played 1k a play on RAS totals and he didnt play back any middle then he would be up 35k right? He says no he isnt up nearly that much. That tells me one thing, he is down on the other side of his wager/middle. He is costing himself money playing back the other side. Much like 99% of the people who do this with RAS totals. They put down 1k or so a pop and middle out but none of them are up 35k. So the second bet is clearly behind on the year. I am not bragging or acting like a no know it all.
I ran my own numbers and was astounded how much money I have lost on the second number, doing the same type thing. It actually sickened me too see how well I would be doing if I would have not bet the "sharper" number and just kept the 1st off number.
Here is the story: My buddy is an average size gambler like myself $200-300 a play most of the time. Well he subscribes to RAS totals and the second the line comes out he hits anyone and everyone he can with the RAS totals play for $500 a pop. He can usually get 2 plays in at 2 different books ($500 a piece)each time before the line moves so he has $1,000 on the play. Now his sole intention is to get out of of $700-800 of this bet leaving him $200-300 exposed. He has not missed a RAS play all year that I can recall (maybe because of some malfunction oce). RAS keeps his record on the site and of late he is up around 35 units or so on the season.
Now here is the problem. So I ask my buddy if RAS is up 35 units and you get down $1,000 on his play EVERYTIME you should be up at least 35k this year. He instantly says no he isnt, not that much at all or even close. Now how could that be? If RAS is up 35 units and if he just played 1k a play on RAS totals and he didnt play back any middle then he would be up 35k right? He says no he isnt up nearly that much. That tells me one thing, he is down on the other side of his wager/middle. He is costing himself money playing back the other side. Much like 99% of the people who do this with RAS totals. They put down 1k or so a pop and middle out but none of them are up 35k. So the second bet is clearly behind on the year. I am not bragging or acting like a no know it all.
While I agree with you in principle Ice, you are looking at this wrong. If he is a $200-300 a pop bettor, if he was not middling he would not be betting $1,000 a play (he would be overbetting his bankroll). He would instead be betting say $250 a play (just picked halfway between 200 and 300), meaning he should not be up $35,000 but instead up $8,750.
Got Illinois/Wiscy over 119.5, line is now 123. At what point would you try to middle this? Or would you just hang onto the good number and let it ride.
PS Not a huge bet, just 1 unit.
You took the words out of my mouth.
And I suspect this is where ice is not maximizing his work. I think ice would benefit from more overbetting and buying back to his unit.