I dont have a ton of energy today so not going to get into it but I (and many others) have given back a ton of profits in the past worrying about this. As soon as I quit doing it I have won. My venture in vegas has went great but would be way better if I had never played a middle and the one big thing is I think I try harder at them then most.
The problem is this, players work so hard to find a great bet, one that wins at a high rate. Then the second bet is just a bet made close to game time at the best price, that usually donest have an edge. Now if you can find the second bet at a great number then look at it as a seperate bet on its own and then play the middle (or both plays seperately without looking at it that way) but dont play the first bet so you can have a middle. In the longrun it will end up costing you money unless you know for a fact the second number will beat the closing line.
He covered that.
<table id="post6355471" class="tborder" width="100%" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr valign="top"><td class="alt1" id="td_post_6355471" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(253, 222, 130);">Now if you can find the second bet at a great number then look at it as a seperate bet on its own and then play the middle (or both plays seperately without looking at it that way) but dont play the first bet so you can have a middle. In the longrun it will end up costing you money unless you know for a fact the second number will beat the closing line.
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</td></tr></tbody></table>Doug,
I have been studying this up and down and back and front the past 3 weeks and never feel more strongly about this then I do of late. It just drives me nuts that people think this is a good strategy. THE ONLY WAY IT IS IF IS THE 2ND BEST US ALSO +EV and the only way for that to be is if you end up getting some obscure peak number and people just dont do this. 99% of the people buy back at a Pinny number and think they are doing the right thing.
It's funny you bring up the RAS thing. I have a very close gambling buddy who I have debated this with. His way of handling RAS totals had got me to thinking why I know this doesnt waork for 99% of the people.
Here is the story: My buddy is an average size gambler like myself $200-300 a play most of the time. Well he subscribes to RAS totals and the second the line comes out he hits anyone and everyone he can with the RAS totals play for $500 a pop. He can usually get 2 plays in at 2 different books ($500 a piece)each time before the line moves so he has $1,000 on the play. Now his sole intention is to get out of of $700-800 of this bet leaving him $200-300 exposed. He has not missed a RAS play all year that I can recall (maybe because of some malfunction oce). RAS keeps his record on the site and of late he is up around 35 units or so on the season.
Now here is the problem. So I ask my buddy if RAS is up 35 units and you get down $1,000 on his play EVERYTIME you should be up at least 35k this year. He instantly says no he isnt, not that much at all or even close. Now how could that be? If RAS is up 35 units and if he just played 1k a play on RAS totals and he didnt play back any middle then he would be up 35k right? He says no he isnt up nearly that much. That tells me one thing, he is down on the other side of his wager/middle. He is costing himself money playing back the other side. Much like 99% of the people who do this with RAS totals. They put down 1k or so a pop and middle out but none of them are up 35k. So the second bet is clearly behind on the year. I am not bragging or acting like a no know it all.
I ran my own numbers and was astounded how much money I have lost on the second number, doing the same type thing. It actually sickened me too see how well I would be doing if I would have not bet the "sharper" number and just kept the 1st off number.
But, if $1,000 is too much...too high a %age of BR, then playing it for $1,000 ( at -105) and buying back $700 at -105, knowing the line will likely move 3 points in your favor, is still a good play.
You can't really have dime bets with a 5k bankroll, for example. Betting the dime is worse, w/o the bank for it.
I'll overbet a position knowing I have to buy back, if I'm confident the move is coming.
Unfortunatley MB doesn't have CBB totals, but you can do this with MLB, over there, and only pay 1% on NET win.
While I agree with you in principle Ice, you are looking at this wrong. If he is a $200-300 a pop bettor, if he was not middling he would not be betting $1,000 a play (he would be overbetting his bankroll). He would instead be betting say $250 a play (just picked halfway between 200 and 300), meaning he should not be up $35,000 but instead up $8,750.
EDIT: Looks like Doug beat me to it as he was somewhat making the same point as me.
I think he doesn't want to burn out the book ?
This is a spot for CRIS.
The -105 shops might not take too kindly to this, if you bet both ends with them, and middled them.
I could see places like 5D, Vegasvic,Trojan cutting limits on you, if you kill them on -105 CBB totals, so Ice just wants his $300 ?
I'm sure he is aware of the +EV he might be missing. The guy is no dumbass.
