I disagree with ICEMAN, hope the SB lands right on the number

Search

Active member
Joined
Oct 20, 1999
Messages
75,444
Tokens
Heck, let's go for the gusto and hope the total lands on 46 or 47 also.........


ARIZONA 20
PITTBURGH 27
 

Posts N' Hos
Joined
May 8, 2008
Messages
3,100
Tokens
I don't think Fish is pushing if it lands on the number.

How do u justify betting Steelers -6.5, Cards +7.5. I know u can get a good reward for no risk, but really what r the chances the game lands on exactly 7. Is it even worth the vig for such a longshot?
 

" Thanks for tip Bricktop "
Joined
Jun 28, 2005
Messages
11,367
Tokens
I think he is referring to the books getting killed if it lands on 7 & 47.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 29, 2005
Messages
4,675
Tokens
Actually, my reasons are twofold.

1. Books and bookies getting killed

2. I win(yes, laying -6.5 and taking +7.5 is +EV)

FH

Fish what juice do you need for -6.5 and +7.5 to be +EV.

I can get both sides at -115, is this too much?
 

Active member
Joined
Oct 20, 1999
Messages
75,444
Tokens
Fish what juice do you need for -6.5 and +7.5 to be +EV.

I can get both sides at -115, is this too much?

Yes

The absolute maximum one would want to lay in terms of "total cents" is 25 cents..............laying a total of 30 cents in your example would equate to one hoping this game lands on the number "7" at least 7.5% of the time in the longrun, not probable.

Laying -110 on both sides(a total of 20 cents combined), equates to one only having to hit the number one in 20 times(5%) to make it a breakeven play at worst longterm............. I'm positive the chances of this game landing on "7" are greater then 5%(but less than 7.5% as mentioned earlier).

Again, in my opinion, the absolute maximum one should be willing to risk in this scenario is around 25 cents combined on both sides(meaning the game would have to land on 7 at least 6.26% of the time for a +EV play, which in my opinion is about the maximum percentage one should expect from this type of middle.
 
Joined
Oct 26, 2003
Messages
26,300
Tokens
Actually, my reasons are twofold.

1. Books and bookies getting killed

2. I win(yes, laying -6.5 and taking +7.5 is +EV)

FH

You are right, the books get killed...but just for one day...

You will NEVER, EVER hurt the top tier books like Pinny, CRIS, and Olympic...

They would swallow their loss and come back stronger than ever for March Madness...

Did you know that most books do better on March Madness than the first week of Football for new accounts?
 

Active member
Joined
Oct 20, 1999
Messages
75,444
Tokens
You are right, the books get killed...but just for one day...

You will NEVER, EVER hurt the top tier books like Pinny, CRIS, and Olympic...

They would swallow their loss and come back stronger than ever for March Madness...

Did you know that most books do better on March Madness than the first week of Football for new accounts?


AGREE 100%


Keep in mind, the books have hundreds of various wagers they are booking on this game, and any bookmaking outfit worth their weight in salt would have a very, very tough time not showing a profit for the SB game.

By the way, as stated over a week ago, I'm not moving off the number "7" in this game as a bookmaker and wrapping up a nice win-win position, hopefully on massive volume.

:toast:
 

Member
Joined
Sep 29, 2005
Messages
4,675
Tokens
Yes

The absolute maximum one would want to lay in terms of "total cents" is 25 cents..............laying a total of 30 cents in your example would equate to one hoping this game lands on the number "7" at least 7.5% of the time in the longrun, not probable.

Laying -110 on both sides(a total of 20 cents combined), equates to one only having to hit the number one in 20 times(5%) to make it a breakeven play at worst longterm............. I'm positive the chances of this game landing on "7" are greater then 5%(but less than 7.5% as mentioned earlier).

Again, in my opinion, the absolute maximum one should be willing to risk in this scenario is around 25 cents combined on both sides(meaning the game would have to land on 7 at least 6.26% of the time for a +EV play, which in my opinion is about the maximum percentage one should expect from this type of middle.

thanks fh
 

Member
Joined
Feb 4, 2005
Messages
1,199
Tokens
How would it kill the books if it landed on 7? Wouldn't all the straight bets push? Even a teaser bettor would need to hit the other part of his teaser to cash so some would win and some would lose.
 

New member
Joined
Aug 30, 2008
Messages
197
Tokens
How would it kill the books if it landed on 7? Wouldn't all the straight bets push? Even a teaser bettor would need to hit the other part of his teaser to cash so some would win and some would lose.
If the number lands at -7 and the total falls at 47, anyone who bet -6.5 would win, anyone who bought an extra half point to +7.5 would win, and every single teaser of combinations of sides and totals would win.
 

Active member
Joined
Oct 20, 1999
Messages
75,444
Tokens
If the number lands at -7 and the total falls at 47, anyone who bet -6.5 would win, anyone who bought an extra half point to +7.5 would win, and every single teaser of combinations of sides and totals would win.

Can't believe I found +7.5 -110 on this game last week............
 

Rx God
Joined
Nov 1, 2002
Messages
39,226
Tokens
Yes

The absolute maximum one would want to lay in terms of "total cents" is 25 cents..............laying a total of 30 cents in your example would equate to one hoping this game lands on the number "7" at least 7.5% of the time in the longrun, not probable.

Laying -110 on both sides(a total of 20 cents combined), equates to one only having to hit the number one in 20 times(5%) to make it a breakeven play at worst longterm............. I'm positive the chances of this game landing on "7" are greater then 5%(but less than 7.5% as mentioned earlier).

Again, in my opinion, the absolute maximum one should be willing to risk in this scenario is around 25 cents combined on both sides(meaning the game would have to land on 7 at least 6.26% of the time for a +EV play, which in my opinion is about the maximum percentage one should expect from this type of middle.


actually one in 21 times is breakeven.

where did you get +7.5 -110 ?
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
199
Tokens
Disagree with cappers on super bowl lines,

FINAL SCORE:

PITTSBURGH 17
ARIZONA 13


ARIZONA WILL COVER AND UNDER....
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,900
Messages
13,439,376
Members
99,341
Latest member
inac
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com