I've been developing a rather simple, statistics grounded totals betting system based on similar pitching info. This thread caught my eye, so I decided to sign up. Once I am able to group pitchers in a logical manner, I am going to start tracking the success of actual game totals versus my predicted game totals based on the following formulas:
Note: For simplification sake, assume Team A's pitcher is of type a, Team B's pitcher is of type b. PA = Plate Appearances.
Team A:
x = (avg. OBP versus type b pitcher)*(Team B's avg. PA given up with SP)
y = avg. LOB versus type b pitcher
Team A's Run Total = x-y
Team B:
x' = (avg. OBP versus type a pitcher)*(Team A's avg PA given up with SP)
y' = avg. LOB versus type a pitcher
Team B's Run Total = x'-y'
Game Total = (x-y)+(x'-y') = Team A's RT + Team B's RT
Disclaimer: This statistic is not to be used as the only factor in handicapping games, nor has its validity been proven. Consider it a new tool in our box, that we can work with. All other handicapping information should be analyzed like normal as well.
*If anyone would like to work with me on grouping pitchers, please message me. I would like to have that information roughly grouped by the start of the season. I look forward to working with you all.
Note: For simplification sake, assume Team A's pitcher is of type a, Team B's pitcher is of type b. PA = Plate Appearances.
Team A:
x = (avg. OBP versus type b pitcher)*(Team B's avg. PA given up with SP)
y = avg. LOB versus type b pitcher
Team A's Run Total = x-y
Team B:
x' = (avg. OBP versus type a pitcher)*(Team A's avg PA given up with SP)
y' = avg. LOB versus type a pitcher
Team B's Run Total = x'-y'
Game Total = (x-y)+(x'-y') = Team A's RT + Team B's RT
Disclaimer: This statistic is not to be used as the only factor in handicapping games, nor has its validity been proven. Consider it a new tool in our box, that we can work with. All other handicapping information should be analyzed like normal as well.
*If anyone would like to work with me on grouping pitchers, please message me. I would like to have that information roughly grouped by the start of the season. I look forward to working with you all.
Thanks Jake T. I would appreciate you posting that link. I'm going to be keeping detailed statistics throughout the season, and would not mind keeping everyone informed on anything interesting that I find. I look forward to seeing what you've been working on.
Also, in case anyone is interested: In addition to my earlier post, you can take the two run totals and calculate a win% for both teams through a very simple calculation (ex: Team A's Run Total/Combined Run Total). This allows us to create our own lines to judge the value in the lines from our sportsbooks.
