Draft '09: The Quarterbacks
You may have thought last year's quarterback crop was weak. Not only is the 2009 class littered with ho-hum seniors, its best prospects are underclassmen. Save Ben Roethlisberger, a fourth-year junior who made 38 college starts and had already graduated from Miami of Ohio when he declared for the 2004 draft, no early-entrant quarterback has fully panned out since Commissioner Paul Tagliabue allowed sub-seniors to turn pro in 1990.
The most notorious first-round busts of the past two decades are underclassman quarterbacks: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, and Heath Shuler. Fellow early entrants Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Michael Vick are on the borderline of "bust" status.
Along similar lines, Football Outsiders statistician David Lewin discovered three years ago that college starts and completion rate -- a direct indication of accuracy -- are the two most telling predictors of NFL quarterback success. Lewin, who's also worked as a statistical consultant in the NBA, has had his QBs hypothesis plugged by countless media members, including NFL.com's Gil Brandt and ESPN's Todd McShay. Even Pete Carroll hinted at it when trying to convince Mark Sanchez to stay in school. Lewin's theory has become a widely accepted reference in QB evaluation.
Here is a link to the original quarterback projection article. Lewin premises that because QBs with the most starts are seen more by scouts, those scouts naturally make a more sound evaluation. Some are thrown off by physical prowess (see Kyle Boller, Akili Smith, JaMarcus Russell), but the ultimate test of an elite quarterback is accuracy. If a QB is drafted high, he will likely already possess the physical traits to succeed. If he is not accurate, however, he is far more likely to fail.
I interviewed Lewin for this column and have included summarized commentary from our conversation for each quarterback in the top 15.
[SIZE=+1]1. Mark Sanchez, Southern Cal[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'3/225
College Experience: Fourth-year junior
Projected 40: 4.70
Comparison: Aaron Rodgers
2008 Stats: 241-of-366 (65.8%), 3,207 Yds, 34 Tds, 10 Ints, 3 Rush Tds
Positives: This class is not laden with pro-ready QBs, but of those eligible Sanchez most closely resembles an NFL signal caller. He took the vast majority of his snaps from center in a pro-style offense, tore apart elite college defenses, and often stood out as the best player on the field. Sanchez is highly elusive in the pocket, throws exceptionally well on the run, and took only 17 sacks in 13 games as a junior behind an offensive line that started four underclassmen, including three sophomores. His arm strength is close to ideal and he delivers the football quickly. Sanchez is a leader, outwardly competitive, and doesn't ruffle under pressure. He has the physical makeup of a franchise QB.
Negatives: Sanchez started 16 college games, a startlingly low number. He did not beat out John David Booty, a fringe NFL player, for a starting job in 2006 or 2007. Sanchez was temporarily suspended from USC for a sexual assault accusation in April 2006. Charges were later dropped. Sanchez went against coach Carroll's recommendation to stay in school another year. Carroll has countless ties to pro teams and his disapproval reflects poorly on Sanchez.
Lewin on Sanchez: It's difficult to doubt Sanchez's ability to be a big-time QB despite his low starts total. His body of work is excellent and he demonstrated accuracy as a junior. Sanchez's production in the Steve Sarkisian system is clearly superior to Booty's. However, low-start guys have the most to gain from sitting early in their careers. Sanchez needs to be in a situation like Matt Cassel or Aaron Rodgers. If he has to play right away, there is a strong chance Sanchez will fail. Seattle at No. 4 would be a good fit. The Seahawks could start Matt Hasselbeck for 2-3 more seasons while Sanchez prepares.
Verdict: Teams that need immediate help (Detroit, Tampa, Minnesota) may shy from Sanchez because they know the long odds raw passers face. But Sanchez could be a gem for a team that can groom him (Tennessee, Chicago, Jets, Buffalo, San Francisco). Sanchez is unlikely to be ready before 2010, but his skill set smacks of star potential. Sanchez should be comfortable with an extended waiting period because he's already spent two years behind Booty and one behind Matt Leinart.
[SIZE=+1]2. Josh Freeman, Kansas State[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'6/250
College Experience: Third-year junior
Projected 40: 4.68
Comparison: More athletic Jason Campbell
2008 Stats: 224-of-382 (58.6%), 2,945 Yds, 20 Tds, 8 Ints, 3.8 YPC, 14 Rush Tds
Positives: Freeman is physically stronger than any QB in the draft and it translates to the field. His arm power is superior to Sanchez and Matthew Stafford's, and Freeman is extremely difficult to bring down. Playing behind an offensive line that was devoid of pro prospects and started a 6'3 left tackle, Freeman took only 15 sacks in 2008. It led to increased experience throwing on the run, although his completion rate fell from 63.3% to 58.6%. Freeman can outrun most defensive linemen and linebackers and will be a legitimate threat for positive rushing yards at the next level. K-State's offense used spread concepts, but Freeman spent plenty of time under center and the learning curve shouldn't be steep.
Negatives: Freeman exhibits inconsistent accuracy outside the pocket and his touch on short-to-intermediate throws needs work. While he developed into a superb decision maker by his junior year, Freeman played out of control at times early in his career. He also faced loosy-goosy Big 12 defenses and needs time to adjust to NFL game speed. As an underclassman, most areas of Freeman's game need touch-up, including his footwork and defensive recognition.
Lewin on Freeman: Freeman is big, mobile, and has a highly impressive arm. The talent surrounding him was incredibly poor last season; Kansas State's top runner averaged only 3.5 yards per carry. Freeman was second on the team in rushing. You can present the Joe Flacco argument for Freeman as a big-time talent with a big-time arm for whom it could all come together in the right situation. Having posted superior numbers with a worse supporting cast against a pretty tough schedule, Freeman is a better prospect than Matthew Stafford.
Verdict: Like any underclassman QB, Freeman needs to sit the bench for at least one year. He would've benefited immeasurably from a senior season, assuming his awful line didn't get him hurt. Freeman is not ready to play, but his ceiling is higher than any quarterback that will be taken in April. That upside makes Freeman worth drafting in the second round, ideally by a team with a starter who can hold down the fort for 1-2 seasons.
[SIZE=+1]3. Matthew Stafford, Georgia[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'3/228
College Experience: Third-year junior
Projected 40: 4.78
Comparison: Kyle Boller
2008 Stats: 235-of-383 (61.4%), 3,459 Yds, 25 Tds, 10 Ints, 1 Rush Td
Positives: Stafford has as many college starts (34) as a senior who started three years. Georgia won all three bowl games Stafford played in and he comes from a balanced, pro-style offense. Stafford faced the best defenses D-I can offer playing in the SEC. He won't be a plus-yardage running threat in the pros, but is a gifted athlete (Stafford can dunk a basketball) and a dangerous on-the-run passer. Stafford's arm strength is ideal and he flashes the ability to make all the throws. He is a vocal leader, releases the football quickly, and has good pocket presence.
Negatives: Elite arm strength has covered up Stafford's flaws. He throws off his back foot often and is considered raw in his reads. Stafford tended to go in the tank for long stretches at Georgia and his teams underachieved (e.g. the Dogs were D-I's consensus top team entering 2008 but finished 13th). Stafford is prone to head-scratching under and overthrows. He was surrounded by NFL talent (Knowshon Moreno, Mohamed Massaquoi, Thomas Brown, Kregg Lumpkin, Danny Ware, Martrez Milner) in college, but never put up outstanding numbers.
Lewin on Stafford: Completing passes is the fundamental thing quarterbacks should do and Stafford is in the red-flag area with a 56.9 career completion rate. NFL starters must complete 60% of their throws. Stafford's college team was never as good as it should've been and he wasn't as good as he should've been either. D.J. Shockley and David Greene put up similar numbers in the same system and won SEC titles -- something Stafford never did. Scouts might compare Stafford to Carson Palmer and Jay Cutler physically, but he's in the Rex Grossman, Dave Ragone, and Brodie Croyle range from a production standpoint.
Verdict: Lewin noted that Stafford's college stats and success level were unimpressive with so many tools and weapons, and there's no reason to think he'll be a better pro than collegiate. While Stafford will surely be a top-ten pick, his track record says he'll be a long-term starter whose team tops out in the 9-7 range because of inconsistent quarterback play. Stafford will look like a Pro Bowler in one game, and Joey Harrington in the next.
[SIZE=+1]4. Nate Davis, Ball State[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'2/217
College Experience: Third-year junior
Projected 40: 4.65
Comparison: David Garrard
2008 Stats: 258-of-401 (64.3%), 3,591 Yds, 26 Tds, 8 Ints, 4.7 YPC, 5 Rush Tds
Positives: Like Stafford, Davis boasts a high number (34) of college starts for an underclassman. A standout athlete, Davis could've played D-I hoops after setting his high school's all-time scoring record. The 2008 MAC Offensive POY is accurate, having completed 60.3% of his career attempts at Ball State with a 74:20 TD to INT ratio. Davis plays with a gunslinger mentality and flashes leadership skills. He is willing to take hits and will be a positive-yardage scrambling threat in the pros. Davis can deliver the football quickly and possesses enough arm strength to make all the necessary NFL throws.
Negatives: Davis had a 22-12 career record at Ball State, but was 5-7 out of conference. He faced weaker competition than Stafford, Freeman, and Sanchez. Apparently knowing he'd declare for the draft late in his college career, Davis tanked with five turnovers against Buffalo in Ball State's final regular season game and went 9-of-29 against Tulsa in the GMAC Bowl, appearing frightened by the Golden Hurricane's blitzes. BSU dropped both contests. Davis tends to hold onto the football too long and took 40 sacks in his final two seasons.
Lewin on Davis: What stands out about Davis is that he stayed accurate after losing top wideout Dante Love to career-ending injury in Week 4. Davis had success throughout his college career, putting up better numbers than Patrick Ramsey, Charlie Batch, and J.P. Losman against similar competition. While he isn't in the Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Pennington, or Byron Leftwich range, Davis is a solid second-tier prospect with the potential to be an NFL starter.
Verdict: Davis has all the tools and his resume as a three-year starter with a strong completion rate is impressive. However, his record outside the MAC and late-career collapse makes it clear that Davis will face a steep learning curve. If he is thrown into the fire like Tarvaris Jackson, Davis probably will not fulfill expectations. He isn't ready to handle the pressure.
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[SIZE=+1]5. Cullen Harper, Clemson[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'3/227
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.81
Comparison: Josh McCown
2008 Stats: 221-of-360 (61.4%), 2,601 Yds, 13 Tds, 14 Ints, 2 Rush Tds
Positives: Harper took over for Will Proctor in 2007 and completed 65.1% of his passes with a 27:6 TD to INT ratio. He stayed accurate as a senior despite Clemson crumbling around him; coach Tommy Bowden resigned after a 3-3 start and Harper's offensive line was comprised of four underclassmen, including freshmen at both right tackle and guard. Harper possesses a powerful arm and is fairly effective passing on the run. He was never hurt in college and has top-notch weight-room work ethic as a first-team Strength All American. Harper won't be a scrambling threat in the pros, but is a good athlete with escape skills.
Negatives: Harper's failure to beat out Proctor as a sophomore sends up a red flag, as Proctor wasn't even on the NFL radar out of college. Harper has an elongated delivery that may be tweaked in the pros. He puts good zip on intermediate throws, but Harper's deep ball tends to sail and his senior-year 7.23 YPA is unimpressive. Harper's inexperience reading defenses may have caught up to him in 2008. He regressed as a senior.
Lewin on Harper: It's hard to know what went on behind the scenes at Clemson during Harper's senior season, but he was accurate when he played, has good size, and a solid arm. Harper also didn't get great coaching in college and will benefit from upgrading to NFL quarterback gurus. Harper is worth a fourth-round pick.
Verdict: We pick apart the top prospects, but in reality it isn't easy to find quarterbacks that can throw and perform as well as Harper. While he does not project as a future starter, Harper should ascend to the No. 2 spot on a depth chart and be serviceable for short stretches if forced into action. Harper will work hard in practice and the weight room and should have a long pro career.
[SIZE=+1]6. Mike Reilly, Central Washington[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'3/212
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.71
Comparison: Tyler Thigpen
2008 Stats: 270-of-414 (65.2%), 3,706 Yds, 37 Tds, 6 Ints, 4.0 YPC, 4 Rush Tds
Positives/Negatives: Reilly played in a Purdue-like spread offense at Jon Kitna's alma mater and faced poor D-II defenses. He lacks ideal experience taking snaps from center. His accuracy is off the charts (64.1% career completions), but Reilly exhibited mediocre arm strength when matched against higher-level quarterbacks at the East-West Shrine game. Reilly was a college dual threat, but will likely struggle to gain yards with his legs in the pros. Still, Reilly was a winning QB and posted a sensational 118:40 TD to INT ratio as a four-year starter.
Lewin on Reilly: Not only did Reilly dominate statistically at the D-II level, he led Central Washington to a 10-2 record as a senior. Some have talked up Rhett Bomar, but Reilly would be a more desirable late-round flier. Unlike Bomar, Reilly has actually been a good quarterback. Reilly offers the kind of profile you look for in an off-the-beaten-path guy like Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, or Jake Delhomme.
Verdict: Reilly's arm strength may fall short of Tyler Thigpen's, but both profile as athletic 6'3 small-school quarterbacks coming from spread attacks. It's worth noting that Reilly's completion rates are substantially better than Thigpen's at Coastal Carolina. His level of competition was a notch below, but there is reason to believe Reilly could blossom if given a similar opportunity by his second or third year.
[SIZE=+1]7. Curtis Painter, Purdue[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'4/230
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.90
Comparison: Charlie Frye
2008 Stats: 227-of-379 (59.9%), 2,400 Yds, 13 Tds, 11 Ints, 4.0 YPC, 4 Rush Tds
Positives/Negatives: Painter entered 2008 as a top senior prospect after posting a 29:11 TD to INT ratio as a junior. Losing Dustin Keller, Selwyn Lymon, and Dorien Bryant crippled his supporting cast, however, and a separated shoulder cost Painter two starts and affected him in others. Painter has good size, adequate arm strength, and started 42 games in college. But his accuracy was up and down as a senior and he lacks mobility. Painter took 60 sacks in his final 37 appearances.
Lewin on Painter: Painter was banged up a bit as a senior and had a disappointing season. He was on the rise before then and has some potential, but will probably end up as a long-term pro who doesn't play. Painter is a fifth- or sixth-round pick.
Verdict: At this stage we're looking for long-term backups, and Painter can be that. He needs to be in an offense that doesn't require much movement from its QB and with a team that doesn't view him as a long-term solution. Painter doesn't have much upside.
[SIZE=+1]8. Nathan Brown, Central Arkansas[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'1/217
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.69
Comparison: Bruce Gradkowski
2008 Stats: 255-of-376 (67.8%), 3,214 Yds, 31 Tds, 4 Ints, 2 Rush Tds
Positives/Negatives: Brown is short, but offers top-notch athleticism and was an effective on-the-run passer in college. He started 40 games at Central Arkansas, completing 67% of his attempts with a 75:22 TD to INT ratio. Brown struggled at the Senior Bowl, however, and was considered the event's third-best QB behind Graham Harrell and Rhett Bomar. His arm looked weaker than Harrell's, and Harrell does not have a strong arm.
Lewin on Brown: Brown is coming from the same spread offense Tim Rattay played in at Louisiana Tech. Quarterbacks that don't necessarily project to the pros can put up big numbers in that system. Still, Brown had a very nice college career and a ton of statistical success. Small-school guys who dominated to the extent Brown did are worth late-round fliers.
Verdict: Brown has drawn comparisons to Tony Romo as a small-school quarterback with a decent arm who can move. He certainly will need time to develop, but the odds of Brown reaching Romo's level are long. Brown probably belongs in a West Coast offense and needs to be a third-stringer for at least two seasons.
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[SIZE=+1]9. Hunter Cantwell, Louisville[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'4/236
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.94
Comparison: Matt Gutierrez
2008 Stats: 221-of-377 (58.6%), 2,493 Yds, 16 Tds, 16 Ints, 1 Rush Td
Positives/Negatives: Cantwell's delivery was very deliberate in college. He recently tweaked his motion, but it has affected his arm strength some. A pure pocket passer, Cantwell is accurate on all levels when his feet are set. His build is ideal and he can make most throws. Cantwell isn't much of an athlete, though, and he took 31 sacks in 20 college starts. His career TD to INT ratio was only 26:23 and his 6.6 senior-year YPA is unimpressive. Louisville went 5-7 in Cantwell's lone full season as a starter, missing a bowl game for the first time in the last decade.
Lewin on Cantwell: Cantwell did a nice job of filling in when Brian Brohm got hurt early in his career. Sitting behind a big-time talent, then having the ability to replace him adequately is a plus. Cantwell has the physical skills of a backup, but should last in the league for a while.
Verdict: Cantwell has experience backing up, which is what he'll do as a pro. His lack of extensive experience gives Cantwell some developmental upside, but the team that drafts him in the sixth or seventh round shouldn't expect much.
[SIZE=+1]10. John Parker Wilson, Alabama[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'2/211
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.80
Comparison: Brooks Bollinger
2008 Stats: 186-of-321 (57.9%), 2,243 Yds, 9 Tds, 7 Ints, 5 Rush Tds
Positives/Negatives: Wilson completed just 56.6% of his passes in 40 career starts for the Crimson Tide. His career TD to INT ratio (46:29) is solid. Coach Nick Saban scaled back Alabama's passing offense in 2008, indicating he didn't believe Wilson was the strength of the team. Brodie Croyle's former understudy is fairly mobile and has played well in the clutch, but his physical strength is lacking and Wilson is an inconsistent passer outside the hashes. He is at his best rolling out to make short throws. Wilson's deep ball often sails and he's shown a tendency to fold under pressure (see eight sacks, three picks in Sugar Bowl against Utah).
Lewin on J.P. Wilson: Wilson has an underrated arm, but he's small and didn't put up numbers behind a great offensive line at Alabama. The accuracy just isn't there and he should have been more effective with that protection.
Verdict: Wilson doesn't project as more than a No. 3 quarterback in a West Coast offense. Leadership skills and smarts should keep Wilson in the league for a while, but he will likely struggle if given the chance to play.
[SIZE=+1]11. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech[/SIZE]
Lewin on Graham Harrell: Harrell had a lot of college success, but it's hard to disagree with conventional wisdom here. He just isn't much better than the Mike Leach QBs that came before him (Kliff Kingsbury, B.J. Symons, Sonny Cumbie, Cody Hodges). Harrell can make a roster and carry a clipboard, but unless an NFL team hires Leach to run the spread offense Harrell is unlikely to succeed.
[SIZE=+1]12. Ben Olson, UCLA[/SIZE]
Lewin on Ben Olson: Olson was the top high school recruit in the nation coming out in 2001. His college career was ruined by injuries and a Mormon mission, but he's worth a look. Olson has talent.
[SIZE=+1]13. Chase Daniel, Missouri[/SIZE]
Lewin on Chase Daniel: Daniel has system QB written all over him. He's been in a heavy spread offense since his high school days under Todd Dodge. Daniel is worth giving a shot in camp, but isn't someone to get excited about.
[SIZE=+1]14. Tom Brandstater, Fresno State[/SIZE]
Lewin on Tom Brandstater: Nothing says Brandstater will prove to be any more than an average college quarterback. He'll be a fringe player at the next level.
[SIZE=+1]15. Rhett Bomar, Sam Houston State[/SIZE]
Lewin on Rhett Bomar: Bomar wasn't very good at Oklahoma and wasn't very good after transferring to Sam Houston State. It's hard to see why anyone would like him. Bomar was a top recruit, but his glaring character flaws and lack of college success make him undraftable.
Other QBs with a shot to be drafted: Drew Willy (Buffalo), Stephen McGee (Texas A&M), Willie Tuitama (Arizona), Todd Boeckman (Ohio State), Rudy Carpenter (Arizona State), Brian Johnson (Utah), Tyler Lorenzen (UConn), David Johnson (Tulsa), Chase Holbrook (New Mexico State), Jason Boltus (Harwick), Brian Hoyer (Michigan State)
You may have thought last year's quarterback crop was weak. Not only is the 2009 class littered with ho-hum seniors, its best prospects are underclassmen. Save Ben Roethlisberger, a fourth-year junior who made 38 college starts and had already graduated from Miami of Ohio when he declared for the 2004 draft, no early-entrant quarterback has fully panned out since Commissioner Paul Tagliabue allowed sub-seniors to turn pro in 1990.
The most notorious first-round busts of the past two decades are underclassman quarterbacks: Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, and Heath Shuler. Fellow early entrants Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Michael Vick are on the borderline of "bust" status.
Along similar lines, Football Outsiders statistician David Lewin discovered three years ago that college starts and completion rate -- a direct indication of accuracy -- are the two most telling predictors of NFL quarterback success. Lewin, who's also worked as a statistical consultant in the NBA, has had his QBs hypothesis plugged by countless media members, including NFL.com's Gil Brandt and ESPN's Todd McShay. Even Pete Carroll hinted at it when trying to convince Mark Sanchez to stay in school. Lewin's theory has become a widely accepted reference in QB evaluation.
Here is a link to the original quarterback projection article. Lewin premises that because QBs with the most starts are seen more by scouts, those scouts naturally make a more sound evaluation. Some are thrown off by physical prowess (see Kyle Boller, Akili Smith, JaMarcus Russell), but the ultimate test of an elite quarterback is accuracy. If a QB is drafted high, he will likely already possess the physical traits to succeed. If he is not accurate, however, he is far more likely to fail.
I interviewed Lewin for this column and have included summarized commentary from our conversation for each quarterback in the top 15.
[SIZE=+1]1. Mark Sanchez, Southern Cal[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'3/225
College Experience: Fourth-year junior
Projected 40: 4.70
Comparison: Aaron Rodgers
2008 Stats: 241-of-366 (65.8%), 3,207 Yds, 34 Tds, 10 Ints, 3 Rush Tds
Positives: This class is not laden with pro-ready QBs, but of those eligible Sanchez most closely resembles an NFL signal caller. He took the vast majority of his snaps from center in a pro-style offense, tore apart elite college defenses, and often stood out as the best player on the field. Sanchez is highly elusive in the pocket, throws exceptionally well on the run, and took only 17 sacks in 13 games as a junior behind an offensive line that started four underclassmen, including three sophomores. His arm strength is close to ideal and he delivers the football quickly. Sanchez is a leader, outwardly competitive, and doesn't ruffle under pressure. He has the physical makeup of a franchise QB.
Negatives: Sanchez started 16 college games, a startlingly low number. He did not beat out John David Booty, a fringe NFL player, for a starting job in 2006 or 2007. Sanchez was temporarily suspended from USC for a sexual assault accusation in April 2006. Charges were later dropped. Sanchez went against coach Carroll's recommendation to stay in school another year. Carroll has countless ties to pro teams and his disapproval reflects poorly on Sanchez.
Lewin on Sanchez: It's difficult to doubt Sanchez's ability to be a big-time QB despite his low starts total. His body of work is excellent and he demonstrated accuracy as a junior. Sanchez's production in the Steve Sarkisian system is clearly superior to Booty's. However, low-start guys have the most to gain from sitting early in their careers. Sanchez needs to be in a situation like Matt Cassel or Aaron Rodgers. If he has to play right away, there is a strong chance Sanchez will fail. Seattle at No. 4 would be a good fit. The Seahawks could start Matt Hasselbeck for 2-3 more seasons while Sanchez prepares.
Verdict: Teams that need immediate help (Detroit, Tampa, Minnesota) may shy from Sanchez because they know the long odds raw passers face. But Sanchez could be a gem for a team that can groom him (Tennessee, Chicago, Jets, Buffalo, San Francisco). Sanchez is unlikely to be ready before 2010, but his skill set smacks of star potential. Sanchez should be comfortable with an extended waiting period because he's already spent two years behind Booty and one behind Matt Leinart.
[SIZE=+1]2. Josh Freeman, Kansas State[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'6/250
College Experience: Third-year junior
Projected 40: 4.68
Comparison: More athletic Jason Campbell
2008 Stats: 224-of-382 (58.6%), 2,945 Yds, 20 Tds, 8 Ints, 3.8 YPC, 14 Rush Tds
Positives: Freeman is physically stronger than any QB in the draft and it translates to the field. His arm power is superior to Sanchez and Matthew Stafford's, and Freeman is extremely difficult to bring down. Playing behind an offensive line that was devoid of pro prospects and started a 6'3 left tackle, Freeman took only 15 sacks in 2008. It led to increased experience throwing on the run, although his completion rate fell from 63.3% to 58.6%. Freeman can outrun most defensive linemen and linebackers and will be a legitimate threat for positive rushing yards at the next level. K-State's offense used spread concepts, but Freeman spent plenty of time under center and the learning curve shouldn't be steep.
Negatives: Freeman exhibits inconsistent accuracy outside the pocket and his touch on short-to-intermediate throws needs work. While he developed into a superb decision maker by his junior year, Freeman played out of control at times early in his career. He also faced loosy-goosy Big 12 defenses and needs time to adjust to NFL game speed. As an underclassman, most areas of Freeman's game need touch-up, including his footwork and defensive recognition.
Lewin on Freeman: Freeman is big, mobile, and has a highly impressive arm. The talent surrounding him was incredibly poor last season; Kansas State's top runner averaged only 3.5 yards per carry. Freeman was second on the team in rushing. You can present the Joe Flacco argument for Freeman as a big-time talent with a big-time arm for whom it could all come together in the right situation. Having posted superior numbers with a worse supporting cast against a pretty tough schedule, Freeman is a better prospect than Matthew Stafford.
Verdict: Like any underclassman QB, Freeman needs to sit the bench for at least one year. He would've benefited immeasurably from a senior season, assuming his awful line didn't get him hurt. Freeman is not ready to play, but his ceiling is higher than any quarterback that will be taken in April. That upside makes Freeman worth drafting in the second round, ideally by a team with a starter who can hold down the fort for 1-2 seasons.
[SIZE=+1]3. Matthew Stafford, Georgia[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'3/228
College Experience: Third-year junior
Projected 40: 4.78
Comparison: Kyle Boller
2008 Stats: 235-of-383 (61.4%), 3,459 Yds, 25 Tds, 10 Ints, 1 Rush Td
Positives: Stafford has as many college starts (34) as a senior who started three years. Georgia won all three bowl games Stafford played in and he comes from a balanced, pro-style offense. Stafford faced the best defenses D-I can offer playing in the SEC. He won't be a plus-yardage running threat in the pros, but is a gifted athlete (Stafford can dunk a basketball) and a dangerous on-the-run passer. Stafford's arm strength is ideal and he flashes the ability to make all the throws. He is a vocal leader, releases the football quickly, and has good pocket presence.
Negatives: Elite arm strength has covered up Stafford's flaws. He throws off his back foot often and is considered raw in his reads. Stafford tended to go in the tank for long stretches at Georgia and his teams underachieved (e.g. the Dogs were D-I's consensus top team entering 2008 but finished 13th). Stafford is prone to head-scratching under and overthrows. He was surrounded by NFL talent (Knowshon Moreno, Mohamed Massaquoi, Thomas Brown, Kregg Lumpkin, Danny Ware, Martrez Milner) in college, but never put up outstanding numbers.
Lewin on Stafford: Completing passes is the fundamental thing quarterbacks should do and Stafford is in the red-flag area with a 56.9 career completion rate. NFL starters must complete 60% of their throws. Stafford's college team was never as good as it should've been and he wasn't as good as he should've been either. D.J. Shockley and David Greene put up similar numbers in the same system and won SEC titles -- something Stafford never did. Scouts might compare Stafford to Carson Palmer and Jay Cutler physically, but he's in the Rex Grossman, Dave Ragone, and Brodie Croyle range from a production standpoint.
Verdict: Lewin noted that Stafford's college stats and success level were unimpressive with so many tools and weapons, and there's no reason to think he'll be a better pro than collegiate. While Stafford will surely be a top-ten pick, his track record says he'll be a long-term starter whose team tops out in the 9-7 range because of inconsistent quarterback play. Stafford will look like a Pro Bowler in one game, and Joey Harrington in the next.
[SIZE=+1]4. Nate Davis, Ball State[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'2/217
College Experience: Third-year junior
Projected 40: 4.65
Comparison: David Garrard
2008 Stats: 258-of-401 (64.3%), 3,591 Yds, 26 Tds, 8 Ints, 4.7 YPC, 5 Rush Tds
Positives: Like Stafford, Davis boasts a high number (34) of college starts for an underclassman. A standout athlete, Davis could've played D-I hoops after setting his high school's all-time scoring record. The 2008 MAC Offensive POY is accurate, having completed 60.3% of his career attempts at Ball State with a 74:20 TD to INT ratio. Davis plays with a gunslinger mentality and flashes leadership skills. He is willing to take hits and will be a positive-yardage scrambling threat in the pros. Davis can deliver the football quickly and possesses enough arm strength to make all the necessary NFL throws.
Negatives: Davis had a 22-12 career record at Ball State, but was 5-7 out of conference. He faced weaker competition than Stafford, Freeman, and Sanchez. Apparently knowing he'd declare for the draft late in his college career, Davis tanked with five turnovers against Buffalo in Ball State's final regular season game and went 9-of-29 against Tulsa in the GMAC Bowl, appearing frightened by the Golden Hurricane's blitzes. BSU dropped both contests. Davis tends to hold onto the football too long and took 40 sacks in his final two seasons.
Lewin on Davis: What stands out about Davis is that he stayed accurate after losing top wideout Dante Love to career-ending injury in Week 4. Davis had success throughout his college career, putting up better numbers than Patrick Ramsey, Charlie Batch, and J.P. Losman against similar competition. While he isn't in the Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Pennington, or Byron Leftwich range, Davis is a solid second-tier prospect with the potential to be an NFL starter.
Verdict: Davis has all the tools and his resume as a three-year starter with a strong completion rate is impressive. However, his record outside the MAC and late-career collapse makes it clear that Davis will face a steep learning curve. If he is thrown into the fire like Tarvaris Jackson, Davis probably will not fulfill expectations. He isn't ready to handle the pressure.
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[SIZE=+1]5. Cullen Harper, Clemson[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'3/227
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.81
Comparison: Josh McCown
2008 Stats: 221-of-360 (61.4%), 2,601 Yds, 13 Tds, 14 Ints, 2 Rush Tds
Positives: Harper took over for Will Proctor in 2007 and completed 65.1% of his passes with a 27:6 TD to INT ratio. He stayed accurate as a senior despite Clemson crumbling around him; coach Tommy Bowden resigned after a 3-3 start and Harper's offensive line was comprised of four underclassmen, including freshmen at both right tackle and guard. Harper possesses a powerful arm and is fairly effective passing on the run. He was never hurt in college and has top-notch weight-room work ethic as a first-team Strength All American. Harper won't be a scrambling threat in the pros, but is a good athlete with escape skills.
Negatives: Harper's failure to beat out Proctor as a sophomore sends up a red flag, as Proctor wasn't even on the NFL radar out of college. Harper has an elongated delivery that may be tweaked in the pros. He puts good zip on intermediate throws, but Harper's deep ball tends to sail and his senior-year 7.23 YPA is unimpressive. Harper's inexperience reading defenses may have caught up to him in 2008. He regressed as a senior.
Lewin on Harper: It's hard to know what went on behind the scenes at Clemson during Harper's senior season, but he was accurate when he played, has good size, and a solid arm. Harper also didn't get great coaching in college and will benefit from upgrading to NFL quarterback gurus. Harper is worth a fourth-round pick.
Verdict: We pick apart the top prospects, but in reality it isn't easy to find quarterbacks that can throw and perform as well as Harper. While he does not project as a future starter, Harper should ascend to the No. 2 spot on a depth chart and be serviceable for short stretches if forced into action. Harper will work hard in practice and the weight room and should have a long pro career.
[SIZE=+1]6. Mike Reilly, Central Washington[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'3/212
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.71
Comparison: Tyler Thigpen
2008 Stats: 270-of-414 (65.2%), 3,706 Yds, 37 Tds, 6 Ints, 4.0 YPC, 4 Rush Tds
Positives/Negatives: Reilly played in a Purdue-like spread offense at Jon Kitna's alma mater and faced poor D-II defenses. He lacks ideal experience taking snaps from center. His accuracy is off the charts (64.1% career completions), but Reilly exhibited mediocre arm strength when matched against higher-level quarterbacks at the East-West Shrine game. Reilly was a college dual threat, but will likely struggle to gain yards with his legs in the pros. Still, Reilly was a winning QB and posted a sensational 118:40 TD to INT ratio as a four-year starter.
Lewin on Reilly: Not only did Reilly dominate statistically at the D-II level, he led Central Washington to a 10-2 record as a senior. Some have talked up Rhett Bomar, but Reilly would be a more desirable late-round flier. Unlike Bomar, Reilly has actually been a good quarterback. Reilly offers the kind of profile you look for in an off-the-beaten-path guy like Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, or Jake Delhomme.
Verdict: Reilly's arm strength may fall short of Tyler Thigpen's, but both profile as athletic 6'3 small-school quarterbacks coming from spread attacks. It's worth noting that Reilly's completion rates are substantially better than Thigpen's at Coastal Carolina. His level of competition was a notch below, but there is reason to believe Reilly could blossom if given a similar opportunity by his second or third year.
[SIZE=+1]7. Curtis Painter, Purdue[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'4/230
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.90
Comparison: Charlie Frye
2008 Stats: 227-of-379 (59.9%), 2,400 Yds, 13 Tds, 11 Ints, 4.0 YPC, 4 Rush Tds
Positives/Negatives: Painter entered 2008 as a top senior prospect after posting a 29:11 TD to INT ratio as a junior. Losing Dustin Keller, Selwyn Lymon, and Dorien Bryant crippled his supporting cast, however, and a separated shoulder cost Painter two starts and affected him in others. Painter has good size, adequate arm strength, and started 42 games in college. But his accuracy was up and down as a senior and he lacks mobility. Painter took 60 sacks in his final 37 appearances.
Lewin on Painter: Painter was banged up a bit as a senior and had a disappointing season. He was on the rise before then and has some potential, but will probably end up as a long-term pro who doesn't play. Painter is a fifth- or sixth-round pick.
Verdict: At this stage we're looking for long-term backups, and Painter can be that. He needs to be in an offense that doesn't require much movement from its QB and with a team that doesn't view him as a long-term solution. Painter doesn't have much upside.
[SIZE=+1]8. Nathan Brown, Central Arkansas[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'1/217
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.69
Comparison: Bruce Gradkowski
2008 Stats: 255-of-376 (67.8%), 3,214 Yds, 31 Tds, 4 Ints, 2 Rush Tds
Positives/Negatives: Brown is short, but offers top-notch athleticism and was an effective on-the-run passer in college. He started 40 games at Central Arkansas, completing 67% of his attempts with a 75:22 TD to INT ratio. Brown struggled at the Senior Bowl, however, and was considered the event's third-best QB behind Graham Harrell and Rhett Bomar. His arm looked weaker than Harrell's, and Harrell does not have a strong arm.
Lewin on Brown: Brown is coming from the same spread offense Tim Rattay played in at Louisiana Tech. Quarterbacks that don't necessarily project to the pros can put up big numbers in that system. Still, Brown had a very nice college career and a ton of statistical success. Small-school guys who dominated to the extent Brown did are worth late-round fliers.
Verdict: Brown has drawn comparisons to Tony Romo as a small-school quarterback with a decent arm who can move. He certainly will need time to develop, but the odds of Brown reaching Romo's level are long. Brown probably belongs in a West Coast offense and needs to be a third-stringer for at least two seasons.
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[SIZE=+1]9. Hunter Cantwell, Louisville[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'4/236
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.94
Comparison: Matt Gutierrez
2008 Stats: 221-of-377 (58.6%), 2,493 Yds, 16 Tds, 16 Ints, 1 Rush Td
Positives/Negatives: Cantwell's delivery was very deliberate in college. He recently tweaked his motion, but it has affected his arm strength some. A pure pocket passer, Cantwell is accurate on all levels when his feet are set. His build is ideal and he can make most throws. Cantwell isn't much of an athlete, though, and he took 31 sacks in 20 college starts. His career TD to INT ratio was only 26:23 and his 6.6 senior-year YPA is unimpressive. Louisville went 5-7 in Cantwell's lone full season as a starter, missing a bowl game for the first time in the last decade.
Lewin on Cantwell: Cantwell did a nice job of filling in when Brian Brohm got hurt early in his career. Sitting behind a big-time talent, then having the ability to replace him adequately is a plus. Cantwell has the physical skills of a backup, but should last in the league for a while.
Verdict: Cantwell has experience backing up, which is what he'll do as a pro. His lack of extensive experience gives Cantwell some developmental upside, but the team that drafts him in the sixth or seventh round shouldn't expect much.
[SIZE=+1]10. John Parker Wilson, Alabama[/SIZE]
Height/Weight: 6'2/211
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Projected 40: 4.80
Comparison: Brooks Bollinger
2008 Stats: 186-of-321 (57.9%), 2,243 Yds, 9 Tds, 7 Ints, 5 Rush Tds
Positives/Negatives: Wilson completed just 56.6% of his passes in 40 career starts for the Crimson Tide. His career TD to INT ratio (46:29) is solid. Coach Nick Saban scaled back Alabama's passing offense in 2008, indicating he didn't believe Wilson was the strength of the team. Brodie Croyle's former understudy is fairly mobile and has played well in the clutch, but his physical strength is lacking and Wilson is an inconsistent passer outside the hashes. He is at his best rolling out to make short throws. Wilson's deep ball often sails and he's shown a tendency to fold under pressure (see eight sacks, three picks in Sugar Bowl against Utah).
Lewin on J.P. Wilson: Wilson has an underrated arm, but he's small and didn't put up numbers behind a great offensive line at Alabama. The accuracy just isn't there and he should have been more effective with that protection.
Verdict: Wilson doesn't project as more than a No. 3 quarterback in a West Coast offense. Leadership skills and smarts should keep Wilson in the league for a while, but he will likely struggle if given the chance to play.
[SIZE=+1]11. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech[/SIZE]
Lewin on Graham Harrell: Harrell had a lot of college success, but it's hard to disagree with conventional wisdom here. He just isn't much better than the Mike Leach QBs that came before him (Kliff Kingsbury, B.J. Symons, Sonny Cumbie, Cody Hodges). Harrell can make a roster and carry a clipboard, but unless an NFL team hires Leach to run the spread offense Harrell is unlikely to succeed.
[SIZE=+1]12. Ben Olson, UCLA[/SIZE]
Lewin on Ben Olson: Olson was the top high school recruit in the nation coming out in 2001. His college career was ruined by injuries and a Mormon mission, but he's worth a look. Olson has talent.
[SIZE=+1]13. Chase Daniel, Missouri[/SIZE]
Lewin on Chase Daniel: Daniel has system QB written all over him. He's been in a heavy spread offense since his high school days under Todd Dodge. Daniel is worth giving a shot in camp, but isn't someone to get excited about.
[SIZE=+1]14. Tom Brandstater, Fresno State[/SIZE]
Lewin on Tom Brandstater: Nothing says Brandstater will prove to be any more than an average college quarterback. He'll be a fringe player at the next level.
[SIZE=+1]15. Rhett Bomar, Sam Houston State[/SIZE]
Lewin on Rhett Bomar: Bomar wasn't very good at Oklahoma and wasn't very good after transferring to Sam Houston State. It's hard to see why anyone would like him. Bomar was a top recruit, but his glaring character flaws and lack of college success make him undraftable.
Other QBs with a shot to be drafted: Drew Willy (Buffalo), Stephen McGee (Texas A&M), Willie Tuitama (Arizona), Todd Boeckman (Ohio State), Rudy Carpenter (Arizona State), Brian Johnson (Utah), Tyler Lorenzen (UConn), David Johnson (Tulsa), Chase Holbrook (New Mexico State), Jason Boltus (Harwick), Brian Hoyer (Michigan State)
