letsgohoosiers system plays (2/14)

letsgohoosiers · Feb 14, 2009

Main system:
RLM system: Bet on any team with 60-80% on them who have seen the line move 1.5 points or more away from them (93-53-8)

Additional trends:
1) Add units for teams greater than a 1.5 point difference (25-10)
2) Add units for teams who opened as underdogs (8-3-1)
3) Add units for teams who closed as underdogs (25-6-1)
4) Add units for teams who opened and closed as dogs (5-1-1)
5) Add units for teams who closed as big (17+ point) favorites (8-4)

Side system:
Dogs to favorite system: Bet on any team with 78% or more on them who open as dogs/pickem and close as favorites (11-2-1)

Saturday is traditionally a good day, as this system has gone 34-9-2 on Saturday.

I will post plays at the time of the tip. The system is contingent on the closing line. I will post the games to watch to give you an idea ahead of time what may be plays.

All data is from SportsInsights.com, sign up for a free account and upgrade to a free 7 day trial.

letsgohoosiers · Feb 14, 2009

6) Add units for BCS teams (48-21)
Corrected range is 60-79%

Off to bed, see you guys at noon.

Paddywack · Feb 14, 2009

Sports Insights is not allowing people to trial use the pro version right now for some reason.

"We periodically offer a free trial of our Premium Pro Membership. We believe once you begin using our advanced sports betting odds and information service, you'll never make another wager without it.

The Free Trial promotion is not currently active. Check back soon for the next time we offer our Free Trial. In the meantime, we encourage prospective memberx to signup for our free Basic Membership."

letsgohoosiers · Feb 14, 2009

Paddywack said:
Sports Insights is not allowing people to trial use the pro version right now for some reason.

"We periodically offer a free trial of our Premium Pro Membership. We believe once you begin using our advanced sports betting odds and information service, you'll never make another wager without it.

The Free Trial promotion is not currently active. Check back soon for the next time we offer our Free Trial. In the meantime, we encourage prospective memberx to signup for our free Basic Membership."

I don't know what's more ridiculous. That, or the fact that I have yet to go to sleep. :missingte

We can use SBRlines for the lines, and 90% of the time the betting percentage doesn't fluctuate enough to cause any harm.

Paddywack · Feb 14, 2009

Purdue fits system one currently. BYU is .5 point off.

roadreeler57 · Feb 14, 2009

You can register & use the free one like I do but its usually about an our behind

Paddywack · Feb 14, 2009

roadreeler57 said:
You can register & use the free one like I do but its usually about an our behind

Yes I have the free one, but like you say it is behind by 30 minutes or more. That won't do any good when you have to make decisions at the tipoff.

roadreeler57 · Feb 14, 2009

N IA might be a play on the other sys but I think hoosiers said not over 80% & currently at 82%

roadreeler57 · Feb 14, 2009

Paddywack said:
Yes I have the free one, but like you say it is behind by 30 minutes or more. That won't do any good when you have to make decisions at the tipoff.

Yeah true

Paddywack · Feb 14, 2009

Like LGH said, we can use this site for updated lines: http://www.sbrlines.com/#/odds/ncaab/game/pointspread.html

Paddywack · Feb 14, 2009

Purdue is looking like it will be a good play down 2 full points to -4.5 at my book (Carib) and 76% of the bets at SI.

stlfan · Feb 14, 2009

roadreeler57 said:
N IA might be a play on the other sys but I think hoosiers said not over 80% & currently at 82%

Just the opposite trend on system 2. You want it to be 80% or more!
11-2-1 for teams with 78% or more on them.

roadreeler57 · Feb 14, 2009

Dog to fave Sys criteria

Ok Pw Ill k that site out www.scoresandodds.com has line moves also .................................................................................................31-20-2 on the season for teams with 57% or more on them.
11-2-1 for teams with 78% or more on them.
20-18-1 for teams with less than 78% on them.

stlfan · Feb 14, 2009

roadreeler57 said:
Ok Pw Ill k that site out www.scoresandodds.com has line moves also .................................................................................................31-20-2 on the season for teams with 57% or more on them.
11-2-1 for teams with 78% or more on them.
20-18-1 for teams with less than 78% on them.

I am not sure of which books are tracked at scores and odds but I do know LGH is using Pinnacle's line movement....Just a heads up. For instance, Carib moved to -4.5 on Purdue while Pinnacle still had -5 2 minutes later Pinnacle moved. It is a play at -5 or -4.5 but a larger play at -4.5 with a pinnacle move. I think we discussed this a bit last week on Wake and NC state... The line moved everywhere to -4.5 and just before game time it moved back to -5 at Pinnacle, became a no play and NC State won the game outright......Just a heads up....I feel good about this Purdue game and N Iowa based on the Power Ratings as well as this system. Good Luck Today guys!

griffinm · Feb 14, 2009

so what are the sytem plays then, purdue?

Rickthestick · Feb 14, 2009

Anything before 12:00?

Paddywack · Feb 14, 2009

Just from a pure capping standpoint, Purdue and N Iowa look like excellent plays today. I hope they both line up with the LGH systems at tipoff. I will sure as hell play them.

Paddywack · Feb 14, 2009

Keep an eye on Syracuse for the 12 games. They have dropped a full point at Pinny and have 82% of the bets. Need another .5 drop and 2% drop at SI.

stlfan · Feb 14, 2009

Rickthestick said:
Anything before 12:00?

If Syracuse gets to -3.5 it could qualify... Oklahoma on the Radar for 1:30 or 10:30 pacific

stlfan · Feb 14, 2009

Paddywack said:
Keep an eye on Syracuse for the 12 games. They have dropped a full point at Pinny and have 82% of the bets. Need another .5 drop and 2% drop at SI.

Market Spread is 76% and we need to clarify with LGH if he is using Market or Pinnacle for the Money %? They don't often vary too much but in this case you are seeing 82% and I am seeing 76% which makes a difference. So LGH if you could clarify. Thanks