Baseball advice

Blue54

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• Feb 18, 2009

• #1

I have never bet a baseball game in my life. Always been a football/basketball guy. Any help and advice on resources to learn more about betting on baseball, such as learning the lines, systems, trends, who in the Rx Forum to keep an eye on, etc.

As always, thanks for the input and best of luck to all.

:toast:

 

JakeT.

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• Feb 18, 2009

• #2

Everyone is going to hate me for having such a big head but I'm very confident in my ability to handicap a baseball game and always include writeups to give you an idea of why I like the play which may, in turn, improve your own handicapping.

I'll try to add more to this thread as far as advice when I get back. The stuff I took to work out is kicking in and I'm way too hyper to type.

 

JakeT.

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• #3

Okay I'm back.

Some general info...

Figure in the ballpark when doing totals. There are huge parks (San Diego, Washington) and small parks (Philly, Cincy) that just produce more HRs.

Umm, later in the season it's good to know which pitchers generally get fatigued and don't have as good of stuff. Check out some 1st/2nd half splits when it comes that time.

Keep an eye on spring training performances of pitchers. It's okay for someone to struggle if they are working on some new pitches so don't figure that in too much but if the guy is just not throwing well without trying new things, it means something. Older pitchers are kind of excluded from that though since many of them have nothing to prove.

More later.

 

JakeT.

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• #4

Roman_Kandle said:

Hey Jake, what pre-season mlb publications are must-haves for those that want to start researching now?

Click to expand...

Personally I prefer Lindy's but lots of people around here like the Baseball Prosectus it seems. I've heard that one mentioned quite a bit lately.

 

Blue54

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• #5

Jake T. said:

Okay I'm back.

Some general info...

Figure in the ballpark when doing totals. There are huge parks (San Diego, Washington) and small parks (Philly, Cincy) that just produce more HRs.

Umm, later in the season it's good to know which pitchers generally get fatigued and don't have as good of stuff. Check out some 1st/2nd half splits when it comes that time.

Keep an eye on spring training performances of pitchers. It's okay for someone to struggle if they are working on some new pitches so don't figure that in too much but if the guy is just not throwing well without trying new things, it means something. Older pitchers are kind of excluded from that though since many of them have nothing to prove.

More later.

Click to expand...

Thanks a lot for the input and for replying. Looking forward to seeing more!

 

Hip2Bsq

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• #6

Bet against a pitcher when making his first start coming off DL and missing 3 or more starts.

 

JerseyShop101

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• Mar 22, 2009

• #7

I can't wait for the regular season to begin. It will be great to see how these work out.

 

billhill999

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• #8

Jake T. said:

Personally I prefer Lindy's but lots of people around here like the Baseball Prosectus it seems. I've heard that one mentioned quite a bit lately.

Click to expand...

BP is the first source I go to.
Blue, try not to lay more than -150 in any one game, is the first piece of advice.
If you like a starter in a game but the starting pitcher you like has a crappy bullpen, you may want to consider betting the first 5 innings of that game in lieu of the whole nine innings.
Don't place too much of a premium on home field either.

 

JakeT.

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• Mar 22, 2009

• #9

billhill999 said:

BP is the first source I go to.
Blue, try not to lay more than -150 in any one game, is the first piece of advice.
If you like a starter in a game but the starting pitcher you like has a crappy bullpen, you may want to consider betting the first 5 innings of that game in lieu of the whole nine innings.
Don't place too much of a premium on home field either.

Click to expand...

Home field in baseball is worth 20-30 cents IMO.

 

jtc1984

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• Mar 22, 2009

• #10

betting the Cardinals and Angels as dogs is a good starting point on a daily basis

 

Blue54

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• Mar 26, 2009

• #11

Thanks guys!

 

pandas

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• #12

Some good info there for a newbie like me . Thanks !

 

greenmonster

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• Mar 27, 2009

• #13

jtc1984 said:

betting the Cardinals and Angels as dogs is a good starting point on a daily basis

Click to expand...

ha, that's a good point, especially this year I think

 

TescoVee

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• Mar 27, 2009

• #14

make sure your book offers dime line or better prices.

 

coffeecakes

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• Apr 7, 2009

• #15

All of the advice that I have seen is pretty good. But I don't have a problem laying -150 TO -180 if I like the play. I would rather have a winner at -150 than a loser at +105. Also, look at the ptiching match ups and baseball park trends if they are available to you. Betting on baseball is a 6 month war and you have to be prepared to go to battle almost ever night.