Baseball Formula Question

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Hey guys,
First I apologize for the length of the post but i am stumped and need your help.
I have developed a very complicated formula for bases this year that basically gives me the amount of runs a team should give up per game and the amount that they should get.

However here is where i am stuck.

Lets say that my formula is telling me that the starting pitcher for the Yankees on an average night will give up a run per 2.1 innings pitched.
Lets also say that on average their bullpen will give up a run per 2.0 innings pitched.
Also, on an average night the Starting Pitcher will pitch 7.0 innings.
Since the Yankees are the home team, they will pitch 9 innings.
Starting Pitcher = 7 innings / run per 2.1 innings = 3 Runs
Bullpen = 2 innings / run per 2.0 innings = 1 run
So therefore the Yankees should give up on average 4 runs per game.

Thats the first half.
The second is the batting of the Red Sox.
Lets say that my formula gives me that the Sox should score an average of 6 runs per game...
Now any person who can count would tell you that on average that the Sox should score 5 runs in this game (4 runs from Yankees pitching + 6 runs from Sox offense / 2).
BUT... Do you think that more of the percentage should be given to the pitching or the offense?
In my opinion, it should be about 66% pitching to 34% offense. Or basically 2 to one on the pitching.
In this case the Sox should score on average 4.67 runs.
(4 runsx2 +6 runsx1 = 14runs / 3 = 4.67)

My question to you, what percentage should the pitching be given compared to the offense?

Also, how much factor would you put into homefield?

Thanks guys
 

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That debate is as old as the hills, Which takes more presidence? the answer in my eyes is...

Look at the Trending, there are sites that will show a stronger pitching trend over the last 5 games, and/or stronger HITTING over last 5 games (of course versus a weaker pitch/Hit),

Im sure this wrinkle will make things more complicated, but useing a 5 game Hitch would be my GUT instinct as to predicateing an Impending explosion or Implosion,

gl,,,

tater
 

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Lets say that the "trend" thing is already factored into the formula.
Not trying to be a dick, just saying that the numbers i have come up with involve the last few games and how teams play towards each other.

Now that i have all that, what would you rate each category? 50-50?
 

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Rather than add the two and take the average (which, in my mind may cheapen or inflate each team's numbers), I would do something like this:
Red Sox runs:
(sox runs * yanks runs allowed)/league average runs

Ex: yankees runs allowed: 4
Sox runs scored: 6
League average: 4 (for ease of computation)
By averaging those numbers you'd deduce that the red sox should score 5 runs, but that doesn't give them enough credit seeing as their runs scored is 1.5 that of league average and they've presumably faced the same/similar competition as the yankees staff has.
With the formula stated above you'd get:
6 runs allowed.

I've found this to be a far more accurate predictor of most all statistics in sports.
I hope this was at least somewhat coherent and helpful.

^league average runs scored/allowed should be the same number
 

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