Question for you Baseball Math Gurus

VegasVic · Mar 8, 2009

It seems like these season win totals always seem to come down to the last couple of games and the linesmakers have a good handle on most of them.

I bought Boston Over 92.5 -110 at the Hilton when the numbers first came out.

5dimes is presently offering Boston Under 94.5 +100. Or in other words a 20/1 middle for them to win either 93 or 94 games this year.

My question is, what odds would be +EV for me to pull a trigger on this?

X-Files · Mar 9, 2009

VegasVic said:
It seems like these season win totals always seem to come down to the last couple of games and the linesmakers have a good handle on most of them.

I bought Boston Over 92.5 -110 at the Hilton when the numbers first came out.

5dimes is presently offering Boston Under 94.5 +100. Or in other words a 20/1 middle for them to win either 93 or 94 games this year.

My question is, what odds would be +EV for me to pull a trigger on this?

I can't answer that, but Pinnacle has under 94.5 +112 now, which would
give you the middle op at no risk plus a small scalp.

:drink:

VegasVic · Mar 9, 2009

X-Files said:
I can't answer that, but Pinnacle has under 94.5 +112 now, which would
give you the middle op at no risk plus a small scalp.

:drink:

If I was able to play there I'd be on it in a heartbeat. I do see their total rising across the board so patience should be my plan. I have no doubt 95s will be available soon.

buffettgambler · Mar 9, 2009

What does your handicapping tell you what the intrinsic win total is for the Red Sox this year? Are you placing these bets on credit or tying up money? If the latter, deriving an accurate answer, one would have to place a cost of capital to your future expectations. Are you assuming Pinnacle as the fair market pricing? What is your utility function.? These answers are a few that have to be accounted for in order to derive at what +EV would hedging be optimal.
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If you want to assume Pinnacle as the True market odds, you can quantify the chance the Red Sox go over 92.5, which would come to
~ 64.2%. Assessing your current bet as a stand along basis is pretty straightforward from there.
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Good luck.

swaminator · Mar 31, 2009

keep your +2 gms advantage or hedge at seasons end

Hi Vic.
it looks like you made a smart wager there and beat the books
and have a nice 2 gm advantage.
if you didn't wager A LOT, keep your 2 gm advantage.

If Pinnacle has 94.5 now you have a nice wager going.
Like you laid -3 in a FB game and line is now -3.5 or -4.
Those futures projections are not what I would consider
"live numbers" to middle on.
be satisified with your smart wager, and possibly you can
use your advantage at the end of the season betting on
single games if it looks close.
Swam
azbars@aol.com if you need anything else