I have a question regarding money management of erroneous plays or plays which were made which were later discovered to have lost edge for whatever reason ranging from injury, weather etc... In the past I have always just taken the other side of the play and eaten the "juice" instead of just letting it ride; I have always thought this to be the smart and prudent action to take. However, I recently found myself in that situation and began to contemplate whether, in the long run, the more beneficial course of action would be to let the play ride(of course it is assumed that new information leading to the assertion that the original play has lost it's edge does not push the play significantly in favor of the opposite outcome occurring). For example, if I like the Bulls at home against the Bucks -4 early in the day and place my wager, then later int he day discover an injury or illness to a starter on the bulls staff, which erases the edge I had found earlier in my handicapping, I am usually inclined to also take the Bucks +4 and eat the %10 loss on the juice on the event. However, If I simply let the play ride, again, given that the injury does not create edge for the bucks according to my calculations, my expected return would be a loss of 5%(essentially a coin flip minus juice on the loss), a full 50% better than the return of -10% had I simply ate the juice. I know the variance is enormous with letting the play ride as three different outcomes are possible: push, win 100%, or lose 110%; however, over the course a long gambling career wouldn't the 'let it ride' approach yield a 50% better expected result than the 'cover the play' strategy(a lesser loss)? Thanks guys and I look forward to your input.
the rule of thumb is ALWAYS, Middle if you can get 4 points or more,
Take SOME off the table if the bet looks sour,,
so instead of eating a full -110
take 75% off the table,
this is just a recommendation, this is the betting pattern I follow if something turns against me, and I feel I made a bad choice,
tater
Take SOME off the table if the bet looks sour,,
so instead of eating a full -110
take 75% off the table,
this is just a recommendation, this is the betting pattern I follow if something turns against me, and I feel I made a bad choice,
tater
