Noob - Ready to bet smart - but what the heck am I betting?

mml · Apr 3, 2009

Hi people. New here, and I'm glad I haven't played anything too serious before educating myself.

I'm ready to start betting real smart, only 2% of BR, no more than 5% ever, only 2-3 plays a night, no parlays, no teasers, never chase, eventually split up my books, tail good cappers, etc... I have the patience to do this.

I know sports and love to analyze games, the problem is...

All the numbers are confusing me, moneylines, decimal odds, pucklines, match betting... what do the good cappers play?

For example, I would think maybe the NBA, NFL and MLB are the easiest to bet b/c there are no draws. So it's a win/lose. In soccer though, you can tie, so there are 3 possibilties, I assume that's not a smart play.

And is there a type of bet that players agree is best, betting the point spread vs. match betting vs. over/under. What I mean is, do cappers generally agree match betting is a bad idea because the value is low for the favorite? That kind of thing.

I'm really interested to hear what you guys think is concensus, and also what you personally think is best value!

Thanks guys!

oldmanTED · Apr 3, 2009

mml said:
Hi people. New here, and I'm glad I haven't played anything too serious before educating myself.

I'm ready to start betting real smart, only 2% of BR, no more than 5% ever, only 2-3 plays a night, no parlays, no teasers, never chase, eventually split up my books, tail good cappers, etc... I have the patience to do this.

I know sports and love to analyze games, the problem is...

All the numbers are confusing me, moneylines, decimal odds, pucklines, match betting... what do the good cappers play?

For example, I would think maybe the NBA, NFL and MLB are the easiest to bet b/c there are no draws. So it's a win/lose. In soccer though, you can tie, so there are 3 possibilties, I assume that's not a smart play.

And is there a type of bet that players agree is best, betting the point spread vs. match betting vs. over/under. What I mean is, do cappers generally agree match betting is a bad idea because the value is low for the favorite? That kind of thing.

I'm really interested to hear what you guys think is concensus, and also what you personally think is best value!

Thanks guys!

Welcome to the RX. That is quite a list of questions you have. First please understand that wagering on each sport is different and good bets with good value vary from opportunity to opportunity. If you wish to better understand the specifics of the types of bets like spreads, moneylines, totals, quarters, halves, propositions, etc. I will be happy to help you. You can either write your questions in this thread or in my thread above entitled "Ask OldmanTed". Best of luck to you.

mml · Apr 3, 2009

Hi oldmanTED, I plan on draining your brain, so thanks in advance,

I guess my question was a bit too broad. I'll start with what I know. Basically, my most knowledgeable sports are the NFL and NHL, and some soccer. But I wouldn't mind at all learning about another sport if it essentially has the best opportunities.

I'm just trying to figure out, for the NHL for example, are your odds of winning in the long run better if you bet against the spread, or match betting with the favorite, or betting over/under, etc...? Is there a bet that cappers tend to lean towards? I'm not naive enough to think there's some magical secret bet that is automatic, I'd just like to know what the knowledgeable gamblers tend to go with.

I also have a specific example I'd like to know your thoughts on, I'm not sure how to do the math for this kind of thing yet.
My book had these two bets tonight (NHL):

[Handicap 1.5] (i believe this is called the puckline?)
Buffalo -220
Washington +180

&

Match Betting
Buffalo +140
Washington -160

So, I'm thinking, if were to bet Washington in the handicap, if Washington wins by 2, I win, if Wash win by 1, I lose. Is that right?
In the match betting, if I bet Buffalo, it's just an outright win, no puckline involved. SO I'm thinking, if I bet Washington in the handicap, and Buffalo in the Match bet, then the only way I lose money is if Washington wins by 1. Is this a good bet in terms of ROI vs the odds? Cause it's unlikely I'll lose (though possible) but I'm not really winning much..
Btw is this called "hedging your bets"?

thanks!

oldmanTED · Apr 3, 2009

mml said:
Hi oldmanTED, I plan on draining your brain, so thanks in advance,

I guess my question was a bit too broad. I'll start with what I know. Basically, my most knowledgeable sports are the NFL and NHL, and some soccer. But I wouldn't mind at all learning about another sport if it essentially has the best opportunities.

I'm just trying to figure out, for the NHL for example, are your odds of winning in the long run better if you bet against the spread, or match betting with the favorite, or betting over/under, etc...? Is there a bet that cappers tend to lean towards? I'm not naive enough to think there's some magical secret bet that is automatic, I'd just like to know what the knowledgeable gamblers tend to go with.

I also have a specific example I'd like to know your thoughts on, I'm not sure how to do the math for this kind of thing yet.
My book had these two bets tonight (NHL):

[Handicap 1.5] (i believe this is called the puckline?)
Buffalo -220
Washington +180

&

Match Betting
Buffalo +140
Washington -160

So, I'm thinking, if were to bet Washington in the handicap, if Washington wins by 2, I win, if Wash win by 1, I lose. Is that right?
In the match betting, if I bet Buffalo, it's just an outright win, no puckline involved. SO I'm thinking, if I bet Washington in the handicap, and Buffalo in the Match bet, then the only way I lose money is if Washington wins by 1. Is this a good bet in terms of ROI vs the odds? Cause it's unlikely I'll lose (though possible) but I'm not really winning much..
Btw is this called "hedging your bets"?

thanks!

OK. Let's take your questions in order. First, wagering on either the moneyline or total (i.e. Over/Under) is better in the long run then wagering on the puckline. Betting favorites is less likely to provide a long term profit then betting underdogs.

As to your example, the way you present your bet on Washington -1.5 (+180) and Buffalo (+220), you are not hedging in the true definition of the word because you can still lose if Washington wins by 1. True hedging in any sport means you win no matter which team is victorious. As to whether this is a good ROI, my answer in No, because you are still at risk.

The most important way to be successful in any sport is to pick winners in the simplest fashion possible and manage your money properly.

mml · Apr 3, 2009

great stuff. Exactly what I was hoping to hear. I'm still virtually clueless, so I'll keep snooping around for info. thanks.

up1 · Apr 4, 2009

anyone hear of plusline and if so are they any good

hoopsct · Apr 6, 2009

mm get started with the twins tonite good bet you will lay 135 to win 100 0r 270 to win 200 405 to win 300 you see for every 135 you win 100

hoopsct · Apr 6, 2009

mm i like betting unders because you are ahead to start with most cappers play over to cheer for scoring not smart pick spots bet unders especiilly cold whether in baseball just my opinion bu tits

agood one

jerbeek · Apr 8, 2009

#1 thing to remember is money management. Remember this is a marathon not a sprint.

garson25 · Apr 8, 2009

foget about hedging bets in hockey. its ok in baskets and foots.

mml · Apr 9, 2009

thanks hoopsct, great point. People like to bet for scoring, which brings the lines up. I've bet totals 4 times so far, and all four times the under was the right play.

jerbeek, it's damn hard, I'm trying really hard to keep from playing everything I see. It's a great time to bet with basketball & hockey playoffs coming, champions league and WC2010 qualifying, baseball starting up, march madness!! I'm shaking with excitment just thinking about it.

garson25, I'm still unsure how hedging works. But I'd be very interested to hear why it's smarter in some sports than in others..

thirdperson · Apr 9, 2009

To determine which sports are most profitable, practice betting without money and keep a record of gains and losses. There are contest websites such as wagerline which allow players to experiment.

Noob - Ready to bet smart - but what the heck am I betting?

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