We are one day away from the first MLB regular season game of the 2009 season. I cannot wait as I'm sure most of you can't either. I plan on sharing all of my picks with you guys and I plan on making a good amount of money. We will play smart and we will play often.
However, this year, I will start off with just "leans" for the month of April. I think we can all agree that the first few weeks or even the first couple of months, prove to be challenging as teams assert themselves and some the teams we expected to be good aren't playing so well and vice versa. My "real plays" will start right around May. If my leans are doing very well after two weeks, I may start posting "real plays" after two weeks. But even if that happens, I probably won't start making "real plays" just yet.
I already have a few plays in mind for Monday but I'm still working on Sunday night's season opener between the Braves and the defending World Series Champion Phillies. That play will be posted in a separate thread as I will only post some regular season team win totals and one division champion. Here they are with some explanation...
Chicago White Sox o79.5 (+145) @ thegreek.com : $100 to win $145 [AND...]
Chicago White Sox o78.5 (even) @ bodoglife.com: $100 to win $100
- This is my team and I'm making this play with my brain and not just my heart. I know these guys pretty well and I can tell you truthfully that they SHOULD NOT win the division. The Indians, Twins, and maybe even the Tigers can each, easily blow the rest of the division away and take it. But, if none of them step up and do so, like last season, the White Sox can stick around long enough to steal the division crown, like last season. That being said, the White Sox should win 80 games one way or another. Since manager Ozzie Guillen took over in 2004, the team has won 83-99-90-72-89 games, respectively. That's an average of 87 wins per season. Clearly that 2007 season was a bad one, but that team was lucky to have even won that many games! Despite what some may think of him, Ozzie is a good manager and pitching coach Don Cooper is one of the best in the business. The main issues this team faces are lack of a true leadoff hitter, relatively inexperienced players at 2B and 3B, aging veterans in the middle of the lineup, and a questionable back-end of the rotation. Those are serious concerns, but there is enough talent to even the concerns with the hope.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays u88.5 (-110) @ bodoglife.com : $220 to win $200
- I may still not be sold on these Cinderella Rays, but I just can't see them doing it again. The Yankees have vastly improved and the Red Sox are STILL better than the Rays (on paper). I see the Yankees ans BoSox picking up 90+ wins each and I just can't see a division with three 88+ game winners. Scott Kazmir showed signs of mortality towards the end of last season. Who knows how David Price will react to starting the season in the minors. Can Dan Wheeler and the rest of the bullpen handle the pressure if Troy Percival isn't healthy enough or can't get the job done? That and more equal too many question marks for a loaded division.
Seattle Mariners o72.5 (-125) @ bodoglife.com : $125 to win $100
- This team was clearly this biggest bust of 2008. But they won't do nearly as bad in 2009. The team has enough talent to win 45% (73/162) of their games in my opinion. They may get off to a slow start with Ichiro on the DL but that may end up being a blessing indisguise as he should return ready to rip the cover off the baseball. King Felix will lead the rotation out of the gate by Erik Bedard will have a lot of proving to do this season. Carlos Silva also has nowhere to go but up after an embarassing 2008 campaign. Offensively, a healthy Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre, Jose Lopez, and company will score enough runs to keep this team away from the 90-loss mark.
Los Angeles Dodgers to win NL West (7/5 or +140) @ bodoglife.com : $200 to win $280
- I'm very confident in the Dodgers repeating as division champs. I don't want to call this a no-brainer but it's pretty darn close. The lineup, from top to bottom, is pretty darn scary. Furcal-Martin-Manny-Either-Kemp-Blake-Loney-Hudson should produce a lot of runs. Factor in Juan Pierre, Mark Loretta, and Brad Ausmus coming off the bench and adding a ton of depth. The pitching is pretty impressive too with Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda leading the rotation. Broxton will take over as the closer and the rest of the bullpen maybe unproven or not so impressive, but Kuo proved he can pitch last year by posting a 2.14 ERA and striking out 96 batters in 80 IP. Oh, and did I mention that this guy named Joe Torre is managing them? He's won a few games in his career as a manager.
I may end up adding a few more, but for now, this is it. Good luck my friends.
However, this year, I will start off with just "leans" for the month of April. I think we can all agree that the first few weeks or even the first couple of months, prove to be challenging as teams assert themselves and some the teams we expected to be good aren't playing so well and vice versa. My "real plays" will start right around May. If my leans are doing very well after two weeks, I may start posting "real plays" after two weeks. But even if that happens, I probably won't start making "real plays" just yet.
I already have a few plays in mind for Monday but I'm still working on Sunday night's season opener between the Braves and the defending World Series Champion Phillies. That play will be posted in a separate thread as I will only post some regular season team win totals and one division champion. Here they are with some explanation...
Chicago White Sox o79.5 (+145) @ thegreek.com : $100 to win $145 [AND...]
Chicago White Sox o78.5 (even) @ bodoglife.com: $100 to win $100
- This is my team and I'm making this play with my brain and not just my heart. I know these guys pretty well and I can tell you truthfully that they SHOULD NOT win the division. The Indians, Twins, and maybe even the Tigers can each, easily blow the rest of the division away and take it. But, if none of them step up and do so, like last season, the White Sox can stick around long enough to steal the division crown, like last season. That being said, the White Sox should win 80 games one way or another. Since manager Ozzie Guillen took over in 2004, the team has won 83-99-90-72-89 games, respectively. That's an average of 87 wins per season. Clearly that 2007 season was a bad one, but that team was lucky to have even won that many games! Despite what some may think of him, Ozzie is a good manager and pitching coach Don Cooper is one of the best in the business. The main issues this team faces are lack of a true leadoff hitter, relatively inexperienced players at 2B and 3B, aging veterans in the middle of the lineup, and a questionable back-end of the rotation. Those are serious concerns, but there is enough talent to even the concerns with the hope.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays u88.5 (-110) @ bodoglife.com : $220 to win $200
- I may still not be sold on these Cinderella Rays, but I just can't see them doing it again. The Yankees have vastly improved and the Red Sox are STILL better than the Rays (on paper). I see the Yankees ans BoSox picking up 90+ wins each and I just can't see a division with three 88+ game winners. Scott Kazmir showed signs of mortality towards the end of last season. Who knows how David Price will react to starting the season in the minors. Can Dan Wheeler and the rest of the bullpen handle the pressure if Troy Percival isn't healthy enough or can't get the job done? That and more equal too many question marks for a loaded division.
Seattle Mariners o72.5 (-125) @ bodoglife.com : $125 to win $100
- This team was clearly this biggest bust of 2008. But they won't do nearly as bad in 2009. The team has enough talent to win 45% (73/162) of their games in my opinion. They may get off to a slow start with Ichiro on the DL but that may end up being a blessing indisguise as he should return ready to rip the cover off the baseball. King Felix will lead the rotation out of the gate by Erik Bedard will have a lot of proving to do this season. Carlos Silva also has nowhere to go but up after an embarassing 2008 campaign. Offensively, a healthy Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre, Jose Lopez, and company will score enough runs to keep this team away from the 90-loss mark.
Los Angeles Dodgers to win NL West (7/5 or +140) @ bodoglife.com : $200 to win $280
- I'm very confident in the Dodgers repeating as division champs. I don't want to call this a no-brainer but it's pretty darn close. The lineup, from top to bottom, is pretty darn scary. Furcal-Martin-Manny-Either-Kemp-Blake-Loney-Hudson should produce a lot of runs. Factor in Juan Pierre, Mark Loretta, and Brad Ausmus coming off the bench and adding a ton of depth. The pitching is pretty impressive too with Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda leading the rotation. Broxton will take over as the closer and the rest of the bullpen maybe unproven or not so impressive, but Kuo proved he can pitch last year by posting a 2.14 ERA and striking out 96 batters in 80 IP. Oh, and did I mention that this guy named Joe Torre is managing them? He's won a few games in his career as a manager.
I may end up adding a few more, but for now, this is it. Good luck my friends.
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