Jake's Picks - MLB Monday April 6th

Search

New member
Joined
Apr 21, 2002
Messages
28,149
Tokens
Will update record after Sunday's Atlanta +120 bet is finished.

My lines:

Mets -140, O8 -115
Indians -115, O9.5 -115
ChW -145, O8 -110
RedSox -150, U8.5 -115
Zona -170, U8 -120

Actual lines:

Mets -157, O7.5 +100
Indians -127, O9.5 -110
ChW -140, O8 -105
RedSox -145, U8.5 -105
Zona -165, U7.5 -110

Bets:

Reds +147
Reds/Mets Over 7.5 +100

Pitchers: Santana/Harang

Santana struggled in this small Cincy ballpark last season and the Reds are stronger then last season. Harang has an average history against the Mets. Both guys will give up some runs and the value is on the Reds here in their home opener.

Rangers +117
Pitchers: Lee/Millwood

Cliff Lee has an ERA near 13 in spring ball and something is just off with him. He had issues last year in Texas when he was on his game and this offense should get to him. Millwood is a solid enough pitcher but the real reason I like this bet has to do with Lee's struggles.
 

New member
Joined
Apr 21, 2002
Messages
28,149
Tokens
My lines:

Yankees -180, U9 -120
Marlins -140, U8 -120
Cards -150, U8 -115
Houston -115, U8 -110


Actual lines:

Yankees -185, U8.5 +100
Marlins -161, U8 -110
Cards -185, U8 -110
Houston -105, U8 -115

Bets:

Washington Nationals +151
Pitchers: Lannan/Nolasco

The Marlins didn't hit lefties at all last year and Lannan is a guy who can control that lineup. Washington's offense should be a ton better then last year.

Pittsburgh Pirates +170
Pitchers: Maholm/Wainwright

Maholm has dominated the Cardinals over the years and Wainwright struggled a bit against the Pirates in his 2 starts last year. At +170 you have to like weak-hitting Pittsburgh.
 

New member
Joined
Apr 21, 2002
Messages
28,149
Tokens
My lines:

Padres -140, U7 -120
Jays -160, 8 Pk
Minnesota -130, U7.5 -115
Angels -150, U8.5 -112

Actual lines:

Padres -131, U6.5 +100
Jays -148, O7.5 -115
Minnesota -150, U7.5 -115
Angels -148, U8.5 -115

Bets:

Seattle Mariners +140
Pitchers: Felix/Liriano

Both lineups are down with Ichiro and Mauer out and both pitchers can dominate if they are on. Too much value too pass up.
 

Retired; APRIL 2014 Thank You Gambling
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
12,632
Tokens
My lines:

Yankees -180, U9 -120
Marlins -140, U8 -120
Cards -150, U8 -115
Houston -115, U8 -110


Actual lines:

Yankees -185, U8.5 +100
Marlins -161, U8 -110
Cards -185, U8 -110
Houston -105, U8 -115

Bets:

Washington Nationals +151
Pitchers: Lannan/Nolasco

The Marlins didn't hit lefties at all last year and Lannan is a guy who can control that lineup. Washington's offense should be a ton better then last year.

Pittsburgh Pirates +170
Pitchers: Maholm/Wainwright

Maholm has dominated the Cardinals over the years and Wainwright struggled a bit against the Pirates in his 2 starts last year. At +170 you have to like weak-hitting Pittsburgh.

Nice, I am ON Pitt like its a tit,,, lol,, +1.5 for me!!

good luck Jake!!:103631605
tater
 

RX - Prescription Required
Joined
May 9, 2008
Messages
1,416
Tokens
Jake:
Are these all equal unit plays?
I believe last season you had specified units for each play.
Thanks.
 

New member
Joined
Apr 21, 2002
Messages
28,149
Tokens
Jake:
Are these all equal unit plays?
I believe last season you had specified units for each play.
Thanks.

97-98% of my plays are for a flat-rate with 2-3% being double that. That's as high as I go and I personally consider most variations of that reckless money management.
 

New member
Joined
Jan 9, 2008
Messages
709
Tokens
Will update record after Sunday's Atlanta +120 bet is finished.

My lines:

Mets -140, O8 -115
Indians -115, O9.5 -115
ChW -145, O8 -110
RedSox -150, U8.5 -115
Zona -170, U8 -120

Actual lines:

Mets -157, O7.5 +100
Indians -127, O9.5 -110
ChW -140, O8 -105
RedSox -145, U8.5 -105
Zona -165, U7.5 -110

Bets:

Reds +147
Reds/Mets Over 7.5 +100
Pitchers: Santana/Harang

Santana struggled in this small Cincy ballpark last season and the Reds are stronger then last season. Harang has an average history against the Mets. Both guys will give up some runs and the value is on the Reds here in their home opener.

Rangers +117
Pitchers: Lee/Millwood

Cliff Lee has an ERA near 13 in spring ball and something is just off with him. He had issues last year in Texas when he was on his game and this offense should get to him. Millwood is a solid enough pitcher but the real reason I like this bet has to do with Lee's struggles.


The temp at the reds game will be in the mid 40's with high winds. Does this deter you from the over or are you still confident in this play?
 

New member
Joined
Apr 21, 2002
Messages
28,149
Tokens
The temp at the reds game will be in the mid 40's with high winds. Does this deter you from the over or are you still confident in this play?

I'd prefer it were warmer but it's still a decent bet.
 

New member
Joined
Apr 21, 2002
Messages
28,149
Tokens
For anyone who wants to get in early... line movements like this on my bets are fairly normal.

I have Seattle +140, now it's +123.
Texas +117, now +100.
Washington +151, now +135.
Pitt +170, now +154.
Cincy +147, now +137.
Cincy Over 7.5 +100, now -105.

Anyway, for those who want to play both sides it might be worth noting.

Good luck to everyone today.
 

Raising 4 girls!
Joined
Sep 13, 2006
Messages
4,514
Tokens
I had already decided on Reds and Pirates, so let's hope we cash at the window today!

* CalvinTy
 

New member
Joined
Apr 21, 2002
Messages
28,149
Tokens
Record: 1-0 +1.2
 

New member
Joined
Apr 21, 2002
Messages
28,149
Tokens
I had already decided on Reds and Pirates, so let's hope we cash at the window today!

* CalvinTy

Good to have you on the same side Calvin. Best of luck this season.
 

New member
Joined
Apr 5, 2009
Messages
5
Tokens
We are on a lot of the same sides here...all but the Reds. I took the Mets -1.5 but have the over as well. Good luck today!
 

New member
Joined
Apr 21, 2002
Messages
28,149
Tokens
We are on a lot of the same sides here...all but the Reds. I took the Mets -1.5 but have the over as well. Good luck today!

I'll take a loss on the Reds if the others sweep haha. Good luck this season.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,771
Messages
13,438,877
Members
99,338
Latest member
chaicoca816
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com