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Tracking thread for thess
- Thread starter thess
- Start date
hno:My initial lean for tomorrow is the Braves.
Starting Pitcher Phillies: Brett Myers
Most of Brett Myers stats point towards a loss tommorow. In 2008, he had a 5.06 ERA in April, and an atrocious 10.39 ERA against the Braves in 2 starts. The April ERA may be attributed to his switch from the bullpen the previous year, but, taking out his stellar July and August, he still had a 5.68 ERA on the year.
Going back to 2006 (Myers was a reliever in 07), however, he did have a respectable 3.23 April ERA and an also respectable 3.55 ERA against the Braves, but I'm still leaning towards Myers in '08 compared to '06. That year off from starting killed him in my opinion.
Hitters to watch for against Myers:
Brian McCann: .370 BA, 1.043 OPS
Chipper Jones: 3 HRs in 30 ABs, .474 OBP, 1.140 OPS
Starting Pitcher Braves: Derek Lowe
For Lowe, it would be better to look at the 3 year stats instead of just last year like I did with Myers because of his conversion. Over the last 3, Lowe had a 3.57 ERA in April, but an even more important factor imo is his 2.84 ERA against the Phillies. And the most important factor is his stats against the current Phils, who have a combined .178 BA and a .572 OPS against Lowe. There's only 2 Phillies with a BA at or over .300.
Player to watch:
Chase Utley: .357 AVG (14 ABs), .971 OPS
There's noone else that has really hit Lowe well on the Phillies, except for maybe Rollins.
They're calling for about a 50 degree start time temperature, which I don't see affecting the game that much. I may add more on the bullpens, but probably not.
Stat of the Game: .178 BAA for the Phillies against Derek Lowe.
With the Braves getting + money, the value is definetly on the Braves.
Starting Pitcher Phillies: Brett Myers
Most of Brett Myers stats point towards a loss tommorow. In 2008, he had a 5.06 ERA in April, and an atrocious 10.39 ERA against the Braves in 2 starts. The April ERA may be attributed to his switch from the bullpen the previous year, but, taking out his stellar July and August, he still had a 5.68 ERA on the year.
Going back to 2006 (Myers was a reliever in 07), however, he did have a respectable 3.23 April ERA and an also respectable 3.55 ERA against the Braves, but I'm still leaning towards Myers in '08 compared to '06. That year off from starting killed him in my opinion.
Hitters to watch for against Myers:
Brian McCann: .370 BA, 1.043 OPS
Chipper Jones: 3 HRs in 30 ABs, .474 OBP, 1.140 OPS
Starting Pitcher Braves: Derek Lowe
For Lowe, it would be better to look at the 3 year stats instead of just last year like I did with Myers because of his conversion. Over the last 3, Lowe had a 3.57 ERA in April, but an even more important factor imo is his 2.84 ERA against the Phillies. And the most important factor is his stats against the current Phils, who have a combined .178 BA and a .572 OPS against Lowe. There's only 2 Phillies with a BA at or over .300.
Player to watch:
Chase Utley: .357 AVG (14 ABs), .971 OPS
There's noone else that has really hit Lowe well on the Phillies, except for maybe Rollins.
They're calling for about a 50 degree start time temperature, which I don't see affecting the game that much. I may add more on the bullpens, but probably not.
Stat of the Game: .178 BAA for the Phillies against Derek Lowe.
With the Braves getting + money, the value is definetly on the Braves.
My biggest play of the day on Monday will most likely be the Reds over, and I'll also have a play with the Reds.
Starting Pitcher Mets: Johan Santana
The only reason that the Mets are this big of a favorite is that Santana is pitching. The thing is is that Santana in April is not the Santana that you'll see in July or August. Over the last 3 years, he's had a 3.75 ERA in April. And this isn't just becasue of one bad year-his best April ERA has been 3.24, which is definetly not Johan like. He also had a 7.20 ERA last year against the Reds in 2 starts, including letting up 5 earned in 4 innings in Cincinnatti.
Player to watch:
Edwin Encarnacion- 4 for 5, 2 HRs and 3 RBIs against Santana.
Starting Pitcher Reds: Aaron Harrang
Harrang had a down year last year, and on top of that, he's been horrible agaisnt the Mets. He's had a 8.56 ERA agaisnt the Mets in 3 starts, only lasting a combined 13.2 innings. Reds hitters have a combined .923 OPS against Harrang. Look for a slugfest on day one.
Player to watch:
Every Mets hitter.
The over/under and the moneyline are off big in this one imo. This is going to be a high scoring game from the get go. Both of these pitchers will be gone by the 5th, and if the game's close, which I think it will be, I'm going to take the + money and the Reds and hope they pull it off.
Plays for Reds/Mets
over 7.5 3.3/3
Reds ML 1/1.4
Starting Pitcher Mets: Johan Santana
The only reason that the Mets are this big of a favorite is that Santana is pitching. The thing is is that Santana in April is not the Santana that you'll see in July or August. Over the last 3 years, he's had a 3.75 ERA in April. And this isn't just becasue of one bad year-his best April ERA has been 3.24, which is definetly not Johan like. He also had a 7.20 ERA last year against the Reds in 2 starts, including letting up 5 earned in 4 innings in Cincinnatti.
Player to watch:
Edwin Encarnacion- 4 for 5, 2 HRs and 3 RBIs against Santana.
Starting Pitcher Reds: Aaron Harrang
Harrang had a down year last year, and on top of that, he's been horrible agaisnt the Mets. He's had a 8.56 ERA agaisnt the Mets in 3 starts, only lasting a combined 13.2 innings. Reds hitters have a combined .923 OPS against Harrang. Look for a slugfest on day one.
Player to watch:
Every Mets hitter.
The over/under and the moneyline are off big in this one imo. This is going to be a high scoring game from the get go. Both of these pitchers will be gone by the 5th, and if the game's close, which I think it will be, I'm going to take the + money and the Reds and hope they pull it off.
Plays for Reds/Mets
over 7.5 3.3/3
Reds ML 1/1.4
Indians @ Rangers (+120)
Cliff Lee was off all Spring. Last year was an abaration for him imo, and, when you factor in that he still ended up with a 6.17 ERA against the Rangers in the midst of that season, this looks to me like the wrong team is favored. Milwood didn't fair much better against the Tribe last year, so I'm also going to have a small play of the over. It's going to be a little bit cooler on Monday than Wednesday/Thursday, but still look for the ball to fly out of the park.
Plays:
Rangers ML 2/24
over 10 1.1/1
Cliff Lee was off all Spring. Last year was an abaration for him imo, and, when you factor in that he still ended up with a 6.17 ERA against the Rangers in the midst of that season, this looks to me like the wrong team is favored. Milwood didn't fair much better against the Tribe last year, so I'm also going to have a small play of the over. It's going to be a little bit cooler on Monday than Wednesday/Thursday, but still look for the ball to fly out of the park.
Plays:
Rangers ML 2/24
over 10 1.1/1
Pirates (+170) @ Cardinals
I'm not going to do this much this year, but I'm betting against the Cards in this one. The Cardinals were 7-10 against the Pirates last year, and Wainwright had a 8.25 ERA against the Pirates in 2 starts last year. Add that to the fact that Maholm had a 3.05 ERA against the Cardinals last year in 3 starts, and my money is on the Pirates. I think the Cardinals will pull this one off with their ace on the mound and it being their home opener, but the value is DEFINETLY on the Pirates in this game.
Play:
Pirates 1/1.7
I'm not going to do this much this year, but I'm betting against the Cards in this one. The Cardinals were 7-10 against the Pirates last year, and Wainwright had a 8.25 ERA against the Pirates in 2 starts last year. Add that to the fact that Maholm had a 3.05 ERA against the Cardinals last year in 3 starts, and my money is on the Pirates. I think the Cardinals will pull this one off with their ace on the mound and it being their home opener, but the value is DEFINETLY on the Pirates in this game.
Play:
Pirates 1/1.7
